OT: Raise the Jolly Roger: Mid-Summer Break Edition

[DJ Spinoza]

I think Oakland could be a good call for those two, especially Kang. Beane loves cheap power. I think it's probably too much to expect more than a total flier single-A type or even an 18 or 19 year old (I guess they are often the same), but an intriguing guy on their list is Daulton Jeffries, who has good command but has had a ton of injuries and is seemingly on a pretty tight pitch limit.

Worries about developing pitchers aside, I'd gladly take an infusion of two or three arms at this deadline, especially in the lower levels. Priester and Bolton look like good guys to build around, so bolstering the chances that we have mid/back-rotation guys around them is a good idea.

An outside the box idea for Lyles might be across the bay in San Francisco. Maybe his homer problems are suppressed a little bit there, and they can also sell off one of their bullpen guys and eventually slide Lyles into that position if they made the playoffs.

 

[Winger for Hire]

San Fran could be a really good landing spot for Lyles (as well as the Coliseum) to try and reel in that long ball problem some.

I do think the Mets kind of threw the pitching trade market into a weird spin because of the low-ish return Stroman went for. Word is they were asking for Gore in a Thor trade with the Padres, but the Padres won't come close to that after Stroman couldn't net a single top 150 prospect. So it could be an ideal market to recoup some value in Archer since a lot of teams might decide to hold on to the big arms with their values depressed. Lyles could also be a beneficiary to this since he carries a modest value and teams could be more inclined to go with a guy from his tier to not break the bank.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Yep, I think that's a good read on things. The irrational part of me hopes NH is lying like a snake in the grass to get Thor at a slight bargain if the Mets panic a little bit on Wednesday, but we'd probably just ruin him anyways.

Lyles should be movable for something because a team will likely look at the high fastball/curveball combo and see bullpen help if anything. Especially a team who needs some quantity and doesn't have the highest odds but wants to buy.

I think Kang can also be moved, and I think that the number of AL teams who need better production at 3B and DH means that Moran could actually recoup some value. We have to get something decent for Moran, as much as I hate him, but it would basically be about reallocating your resources. Either recoup younger talent you like more, or (I think more likely), address a different need and just open up the spot for your top prospect. Osuna, Newman, and even Kramer can hold the fort if we want Hayes to have a bit more AAA time. To me, Osuna's continued presence really makes Moran redundant. The power just isn't good enough to maximize his value as a platoon guy because he gives so much back on defense.

I imagine this goes for all of us, but I hope NH is very active this week. Even if they are all fairly minor, make 4 or 5 trades. Move the rentals, maybe move a piece around like this, and try and find a low cost buy option for next year and beyond. I guess the continued losses have made buying somewhat more insane, but there shouldn't really be a tax on MRP type guys. If there is, he can always wait on that route until the winter.

 

[TimmyD]

Archer is moveable given his contract. You just won't get much....it's probably a PTBNL type return. And I wouldn't care. Just another pitcher that turned into an utter trainwreck under Searage.

If we don't do anything this deadline I'll be on the 6 o'clock news for taking a massive **** in the lobby to Nutting's command center.

The bolder is what I was going to mention. You can debate about how bad the Archer trade looks at this point and you can debate what we thought we were getting when we got him (personally I thought he would be a really good 1B pitcher here) but the most alarming thing about it to me is that Chris Archer has never looked this bad before becoming a Pirate and working with Searage. No pitchers coming up through they system really look good under Searage either. Maybe the pitchers aren’t the problem. I would fire the staff and keep Archer at this point. I want to see him working under someone else to see if he is actually just this bad and his decline hit really quickly or if there is a much bigger problem

 

[DJ Spinoza]

If I were a Dodgers fan, I would definitely rather give up Lux to get Thor and Diaz, even if Diaz is currently a lot more of a question mark.

My gut is still that the chance of a Vazquez trade is less than 25% as long as Huntington is sticking to a premium asking price, which I would define as one of Lux or May ++(+). I could see a compromise position ending up as "just" May + Ruiz + a third piece, which would be interesting to react to. A part of me wonders exactly how much Huntington is going to insist on pitching in the deal. Like I would hope if Lux is in play, he's willing to back down from May specifically for some others, but who knows.

The Dodgers do need to do something to shorten their bullpen for October, that is plainly obvious. But we have to be discerning and cold: it's also plainly obvious that Lux is exactly the type that Friedman has refused to deal historically, and I think the game has more and more gone into this situation where teams absolutely refuse to move their top prospects because they have so much more value to them than any acquisition.

The only potential caveat is if desperation comes in and Vazquez is viewed as the black-and-white path to the acquisition of a World Series, but basically any quantification metric goes out the window in that light. The playoffs will remain gloriously random no matter what anyone does this week.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Why is Lyles still pitching? You can’t claim to be still attempting to win games while continuing to start a guy with a 6.71 ERA since the beginning of May.

 

[Winger for Hire]

For the life of me, no matter how hard I squint and try to make myself see it, I just can't see Vazquez getting dealt in season. I just have a gut feeling that ownership wants to make any marquee moves in the offseason to try to drum up interest in the upcoming season and not have the fans completely empty the park for the final 2 months. It may be an entirely tinfoil type of read, but it's what my gut is telling me.

Personally, if I was a GM looking to move an elite closer, I'd absolutely be looking to make that move at the deadline with elite teams looking for that bullpen hammer and usually looking to spend a pretty penny to get it. I just don't see this team being marquee deadline sellers.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I would imagine it's a last desperate attempt to get a good appearance out of him and boost his value.

If he's still on the team August 1st, it will be infuriating. At that point, we have nothing to gain from trotting him out there again. If no one wants him, DFA him.

 

[DanielPlainview]

If you're at all worried about defense, that OF will put you in Western Psych.

Meadows is a center fielder and always projecting to be a high level player there. Reynolds and Craig would be fine in the corners.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

For the life of me, no matter how hard I squint and try to make myself see it, I just can't see Vazquez getting dealt in season. I just have a gut feeling that ownership wants to make any marquee moves in the offseason to try to drum up interest in the upcoming season and not have the fans completely empty the park for the final 2 months. It may be an entirely tinfoil type of read, but it's what my gut is telling me.

Personally, if I was a GM looking to move an elite closer, I'd absolutely be looking to make that move at the deadline with elite teams looking for that bullpen hammer and usually looking to spend a pretty penny to get it. I just don't see this team being marquee deadline sellers.

I can sort of see this, but I also think what's left of the fan base is either checked out or would welcome a big deal with open arms. Vazquez is fun and popular, but doesn't really have the same visibility as previous closers IMO (probably because he's not white...).

Especially if it brings back a marquee talent like Lux, or a huge haul headline by two of the others, I think if anything, the trade would bring some excitement.

They key player in all of this is still the Giants IMO. Rosenthal is now reporting that they are getting calls on Pomeranz, who is performing well out of the bullpen. Giles and Diaz are both elite options, but the Dodgers have nobody as a lefty pen option but Urias, and the Giants have all the lefty options besides Amir Garrett I guess.

It wouldn't be shocking to see the Giants make a smaller move or even two, and then add somebody like Lyles or even Givens for even more bullpen depth, and then basically just say that they are going to stand pat. The chances of them shipping Smith to LAD are pretty minuscule anyways (the only way it would be worth it is if you could get Friedman to really overpay you for a rental and send on of the non-May top arms straight up, like Stripling, Gonsolin, or Gray), so I really just don't see a lot of options for Friedman.

And on the Giants note, it might be interesting to just put all the eggs in one basket with a Dickerson+Lyles trade. Melvin Adon is a guy with an 80-grade fastball who has some control issues, could be the perfect gamble on a high-leverage option.

 

[DanielPlainview]

Protecting trade value should be low on the priorities of an organization who is trying to win. These actions tell us a lot about the focus of the management

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm not really sure I follow. It'd be one thing if we were currently 6 games out and looking to buy and sell, but we have literally no chance at the playoffs short of a barnburning 15-game winning streak. They should absolutely try and get what they can by giving Lyles one more start, especially since there really isn't an immediate replacement for him with Brault still out. Sure, we could call up Marvel or something, but he's not even on the 40-man.

I don't have a huge issue with it, at least for tonight. Would rather recoup anything of value for Lyles if it's out there.

 

[ImporterExporter]

Yeah, the Buccos are an org that is "trying to win".

Some people really do buy into the bs.

 

[TNT87]

Reliever rumors: Diaz, Dodgers, Red Sox, Colome

Ken Rosenthal says the Pirates have given "zero indication" they are willing to move Vazquez.

 

[ImporterExporter]

I mean for the love of God, when you LOWER the payroll a year after you had a winning record, THAT should tell YOU the focus of management, errr ownership.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Personally, I feel like Vasquez is a must trade for 2 big reasons:

1. Having an elite closer is pointless if your team isn't a legitimate contender.
2. This team desperately needs high upside prospects in their prospect pool and Vasquez would likely bring 1 or 2 of those kind of guys back.

The Pirates prospect pool doesn't appear to have anyone who has big name potential outside of Keller and maybe Cruz. I think Hayes is a great prospect, but he's more of a good upside and safe prospect than a sky high upside prospect IMO.

Reliever rumors: Diaz, Dodgers, Red Sox, Colome

Ken Rosenthal says the Pirates have given "zero indication" they are willing to move Vazquez.

Dumb dumb dumb dumb

 

[ImporterExporter]

Reliever rumors: Diaz, Dodgers, Red Sox, Colome

Ken Rosenthal says the Pirates have given "zero indication" they are willing to move Vazquez.

Because we'll be contending next year. Hurdle will be back. Ding. Searage will be back. Because why the f*** not?

If we make the playoffs next year, with little to no changes in the next 48 hours I'll never post in a Buccos thread again.

I'm that confident this team is THAT far away.

 

[cheesedanish87]

For the life of me, no matter how hard I squint and try to make myself see it, I just can't see Vazquez getting dealt in season. I just have a gut feeling that ownership wants to make any marquee moves in the offseason to try to drum up interest in the upcoming season and not have the fans completely empty the park for the final 2 months. It may be an entirely tinfoil type of read, but it's what my gut is telling me.

Personally, if I was a GM looking to move an elite closer, I'd absolutely be looking to make that move at the deadline with elite teams looking for that bullpen hammer and usually looking to spend a pretty penny to get it. I just don't see this team being marquee deadline sellers.

I don't see it either.

It doesn't make any sense for them not to move him either.

Vazquez is at his highest possible value right now.

You got teams like LA and Atlanta that need him really bad and both those teams are loaded with high end prospects.

Cash in while you can.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The thing is that this team can make the playoffs next year if things go right for them. The problem is that "making the playoffs" isn't good enough, and their upside isn't better than "making the playoffs". They're a mediocre team filled up with a bunch of mediocre players, and their best case scenario is that they become pretty good with a bunch of pretty good players. They can sneak into the playoffs in a WC spot or maybe winning the NL Central if it sucks again, but they won't actually do anything against a legitimate contender.

Let's say a lot of their near MLB ready prospects do end up hitting their potentials. Is a starting lineup of Diaz-Bell-Newman-Tucker-Hayes in the infield, Reynolds-Marte-Polanco in the outfield and Taillon as your pitcher even that good?

 

[DJ Spinoza]

I'm fairly skeptical of the Rosenthal quip. It doesn't really square with us having talks with the Dodgers and others, as well as Huntington finally admitting yesterday that we're in full sell mode.

It's definitely possible that he isn't available for real, but it seems like it's just as likely that he isn't available.*

*unless a team parts with a ransom that brings multiple impact potential guys back.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

The thing is that this team can make the playoffs next year if things go right for them. The problem is that "making the playoffs" isn't good enough, and their upside isn't better than "making the playoffs". They're a mediocre team filled up with a bunch of mediocre players, and their best case scenario is that they become pretty good with a bunch of pretty good players. They can sneak into the playoffs in a WC spot or maybe winning the NL Central if it sucks again, but they won't actually do anything against a legitimate contender.

Let's say a lot of their near MLB ready prospects do end up hitting their potentials. Is a starting lineup of Diaz-Bell-Newman-Tucker-Hayes in the infield, Reynolds-Marte-Polanco in the outfield and Taillon as your pitcher even that good?

It's a good question. I think they would need more power, and another front of rotation arm. Keller could still emerge as that, but I think the only real solution if this is what we are banking on is a shocking pivot to free agent activity. Grandal at 15M and Wheeler at 15-18M would solve some big problems and take a core likely to hover around 82-85 a lot closer to the next level, especially if Polanco's power was back.

Doing nothing and then trying to nibble around the edges again is the definition of insanity. For all the warranted cynicism people have at this point, I think it's at least still worth acknowledging that NH's public face has decisively shift over the past couple of months, in terms of taking responsibility and indicating that the plan isn't working.

The nightmare scenario is that we'll just hope for better luck/prospect impact and spend a little money solidifying the bullpen options. There's no point in doing that.

 

[ImporterExporter]

And Huntington has the best excuse in the world.

"didn't get enough value"

We will never know what anyone offered. So he can just sit on Vasquez until winter or next year and we'll go through the entire process again. And remember, the more time he spends here, the older he gets and the less control a team trading for him gets = lower value. As I've said a million times, unless you believe this team is WS capable (I really want to believe nobody is that naïve) he's absolutely worthless to this team. An elite closer rotting on an at best .500 team is the epitome of moronic.

It's astonishing that a bloke in his 30's understands simple valuation over the folks running a major league team, making 7 figures a year.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

lmao

 

[DanielPlainview]

I'm not really sure I follow. It'd be one thing if we were currently 6 games out and looking to buy and sell, but we have literally no chance at the playoffs short of a barnburning 15-game winning streak. They should absolutely try and get what they can by giving Lyles one more start, especially since there really isn't an immediate replacement for him with Brault still out. Sure, we could call up Marvel or something, but he's not even on the 40-man.

I don't have a huge issue with it, at least for tonight. Would rather recoup anything of value for Lyles if it's out there.

I'm no necessarily talking about right this instant. It's their mentality for the entire season. They'll trot guys out there who are obviously not playing well because they hope they'll turn it around for an eventual trade. And at the same time they'll hide players like Melky who are playing well so no to tarnish their value. If the organization's goal is to just be a deadline trade off team then something needs to happen. At some point MLB needs to able to boot an owner who is not even trying to be competitive.

 

[DJ Spinoza]

Ponce seems like a decent relief option, and this trade is an obvious win for anybody who prefers to see the starting pitcher finish the 1st inning most of the time.