News Article: Raffl offers more than you think

[Beef Invictus]

Giroux's abnormally low ES shooting percentage probably contributed to that.

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/20...x-0-even-strength-home-gaols-hmmmmmm-benghazi

And his percentage was likely lowered by Berube having him play so defensively.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Those charts are just a tool to help someone analyze a player's ability and requires someone to critically think to make good use out of advanced stats. You have to understand what situations the player was put in (i.e. zone starts, quality of competition, team mates).

Eh, the advanced stats are no more useful than the traditional stats regardless of the context. Using this website with the HERO chart, you get results that you know just aren't true. Kadri is not a better player than Giroux and even if you factor in their competition, zone starts, and team mates, Kadri comes off looking better. Kadri actually played against better competition and with worse linemates and fewer offensive zone starts.

 

[PALE PWNR]

... Let me see if I have this correctly... unless you guys are being sarcastic... G and J should be considered Second Line Players who play on the First PP Unit?


That being the case... wouldn't you say that they are greatly overpaid by NHL current standards... and would be by arguably the 29 other Organizations in a heartbeat?

No... you are interpreting the chart incorrectly. It's not saying they are 2nd line players it's saying that their Goals per 60 minutes of ice time is that of a 2nd line player. And if you look at it, at least over the last season, that's accurate as Giroux's GP60 was .9 which is good for 112th in the league and Voraceks is .87 for 128th. They aren't goal scorers so that's to be expected. Is it a flawed stat? Yes very much so, when you consider that Ryan White of the Flyers is tied with Giroux at .9 for this past season, but it's just a visual aid to use, just like a lot of things in the advanced stat world. It's just another tool to use.

 

[Sawdalite]

No... you are interpreting the chart incorrectly. It's not saying they are 2nd line players it's saying that their Goals per 60 minutes of ice time is that of a 2nd line player. And if you look at it, at least over the last season, that's accurate as Giroux's GP60 was .9 which is good for 112th in the league and Voraceks is .87 for 128th. They aren't goal scorers so that's to be expected. Is it a flawed stat? Yes very much so, when you consider that Ryan White of the Flyers is tied with Giroux at .9 for this past season, but it's just a visual aid to use, just like a lot of things in the advanced stat world. It's just another tool to use.

I was actually commenting with my last post on the two comments off my previous one... But in any case I think I see what you're getting at, and what you meant with your earlier comments.

We certainly can't hang our hats on any one isolated aspect on these charts... can we.

 

[PALE PWNR]

I was actually commenting with my last post on the two comments off my previous one... But in any case I think I see what you're getting at, and what you meant with your earlier comments.

We certainly can't hang our hats on any one isolated aspect on these charts... can we.

 

[Lindberg]

Eh, the advanced stats are no more useful than the traditional stats regardless of the context. Using this website with the HERO chart, you get results that you know just aren't true. Kadri is not a better player than Giroux and even if you factor in their competition, zone starts, and team mates, Kadri comes off looking better. Kadri actually played against better competition and with worse linemates and fewer offensive zone starts.

I don't watch any of the Leafs so I can't really comment on Kadri. The flyers are awful defensively compared to most of the teams in the league which I believe was a huge problem for the team (I think everyone with two working eye balls can see this from outer space). The inability to move up the puck isn't accurately represented on advanced stats.

Context is extremely important in being able to digest the information. You need to understand how every piece of the puzzle fits together to understand the big picture.

Aren't you an attorney? You do know you don't have to argue with everyone when you are not working.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I don't watch any of the Leafs so I can't really comment on Kadri. The flyers are awful defensively compared to most of the teams in the league which I believe was a huge problem for the team (I think everyone with two working eye balls can see this from outer space). The inability to move up the puck isn't accurately represented on advanced stats.

Context is extremely important in being able to digest the information. You need to understand how every piece of the puzzle fits together to understand the big picture.

Wait so are we in agreement then? It sounds like we're saying the same thing...that these advanced stats in these charts aren't all that convincing.

Aren't you an attorney? You do know you don't have to argue with everyone when you are not working.

Two things: #1) I'm always working; #2) I can't resist.

 

[PALE PWNR]

I should have gone to law school, even if I sucked at it, I'd enjoy it.

 

[Curufinwe]

Bill Meltzer's blog today starts with Raffl.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill...l-Snider-Hockey-Alumni-the-Rat--More/45/70388

 

[Flyotes]

Came to post that.

I took note of: Parks becomes a free agent on 8-15.

 

[Lindberg]

I should have gone to law school, even if I sucked at it, I'd enjoy it.

I've read enough horror stories about going to law school that it really scared me away from being a patent attorney. From what I gather you're either pretty successful or broke as an attorney and working all the time. Law school is extremely expensive as well.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I've read enough horror stories about going to law school that it really scared me away from being a patent attorney. From what I gather you're either pretty successful or broke as an attorney and working all the time. Law school is extremely expensive as well.

Nah, law school wasn't that bad. A lot of work, for sure, but really only intense the first year. If you can survive that the next two years are cake. As for the post-school days, if you are a good attorney you'll make money. You may not be a rich TV lawyer, but you'll be fine, and depending on what type of law you are practicing the hours don't have to be much different than any other 9-5. But law school is stupidly expensive.

 

[Lindberg]

Nah, law school wasn't that bad. A lot of work, for sure, but really only intense the first year. If you can survive that the next two years are cake. As for the post-school days, if you are a good attorney you'll make money. You may not be a rich TV lawyer, but you'll be fine, and depending on what type of law you are practicing the hours don't have to be much different than any other 9-5. But law school is stupidly expensive.

I quickly discovered being a patent attorney wasn't for me (I was ready to go to sleep after reading a patent document for 2 minutes). I am sure other fields of law are not nearly as bad (divorce, traffic, and etc.) that are not so dependent on page after page of very technical documents. It seemed like they worked quite a bit as well if you were not an in house attorney for someone like IBM, Intel or etc. I quickly decided if I was going to go to law school I'd do something like traffic law (DUIs and such) since it didn't seem nearly as boring (paper work wise). Always interesting to hear from other attorneys what their work life is like. If I may, what field do you practice in?

 

[Curufinwe]

I don't watch any of the Leafs so I can't really comment on Kadri. The flyers are awful defensively compared to most of the teams in the league which I believe was a huge problem for the team (I think everyone with two working eye balls can see this from outer space). The inability to move up the puck isn't accurately represented on advanced stats.

Context is extremely important in being able to digest the information. You need to understand how every piece of the puzzle fits together to understand the big picture.

Aren't you an attorney? You do know you don't have to argue with everyone when you are not working.

If he keeps arguing with everyone on here one day he'll eventually make an argument that is actually persuasive, but it hasn't happened yet. Pronger won't be traded, Voracek won't crack 70 points, advanced stats are no more useful than standard stats, etc. etc.

 

[Curufinwe]

That being the case... wouldn't you say that they are greatly overpaid by NHL current standards... and would be by arguably the 29 other Organizations in a heartbeat?

No, because PP points count too. Giroux has been one of the best PP producers in the league for five years. Something which these charts, which only focus on ES play, don't capture.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

I quickly discovered being a patent attorney wasn't for me (I was ready to go to sleep after reading a patent document for 2 minutes). I am sure other fields of law are not nearly as bad (divorce, traffic, and etc.) that are not so dependent on page after page of very technical documents. It seemed like they worked quite a bit as well if you were not an in house attorney for someone like IBM, Intel or etc. I quickly decided if I was going to go to law school I'd do something like traffic law (DUIs and such) since it didn't seem nearly as boring (paper work wise). Always interesting to hear from other attorneys what their work life is like. If I may, what field do you practice in?

Yeah patent law is not something I ever considered, pretty sure you need some sort of science or math background to even go into that. I do mostly civil litigation on the plaintiff's side. A "Consumer Protection" attorney is what I call myself. I dabble in other things as well (Criminal Defense, Personal Injury, Foreclosure Defense, etc.).

If he keeps arguing with everyone on here one day he'll eventually make an argument that is actually persuasive, but it hasn't happened yet. Pronger won't be traded, Voracek won't crack 70 points, advanced stats are no more useful than standard stats, etc. etc.

Haha. Dude, the position that Pronger wouldn't be traded was a completely reasonable position to take. It had been discussed for years and never happened. Just because it happened eventually doesn't mean it was an unreasonable position to take. As for Voracek...I don't remember ever saying he wouldn't crack 70 points (if I did, then ok I was clearly wrong, but I do not recall ever saying that). I remember when his best season was 62 points last season, and his previous best was 50 I said that he hasn't done anything to establish himself as a great player, but I certainly don't think I ever said he would never or could never score 70 points.

As far as the advanced stats...I stand by that. They are just as reliable/unreliable as other stats. I'll point to the discussion from yesterday at least for the proposition that it isn't some outlandish opinion...the stats that we discussed yesterday seem to indicate that Nazem Kadri is the better player than Claude Giroux, and that Luke Schenn scores at the pace of a top four defender (and the possession stats indicate he is a legit top four defender).

 

[Sawdalite]

No, because PP points count too. Giroux has been one of the best PP producers in the league for five years. Something which these charts, which only focus on ES play, don't capture.

Agreed... I hope my sarcasm was clear in my posts.

 

[Garbage Goal]

As far as the advanced stats...I stand by that. They are just as reliable/unreliable as other stats. I'll point to the discussion from yesterday at least for the proposition that it isn't some outlandish opinion...the stats that we discussed yesterday seem to indicate that Nazem Kadri is the better player than Claude Giroux, and that Luke Schenn scores at the pace of a top four defender (and the possession stats indicate he is a legit top four defender).

Either this is the most pointless argument ever that you're trying to make or you don't understand how to use statistics. I really, really wouldn't be surprised if it's the former with you.

As has been pointed out many times just in the last page, and as most people who have been around for the last year or so should know by now, stats just present raw (or refined, in the case of advanced stats) information and facts, it's up to the reader to interpret and utilize them intelligently and responsibly. Stats grow in strength when they're used within appropriate contexts and aren't viewed as simplistically as "this stat says X player isn't a first liner". With your Giroux example, again as has been explained to you already, it doesn't take into account PP and PK time (which is a huge part of Giroux's game) and it doesn't take into account contextual usage such as zone starts or quality of competition or team's systems (all of which were a big factor for Giroux last season with the way Berube utilized him). In those contexts the chart makes a lot more sense.

They're tools, it's as simple as that. It's not up to the tools to make sure they're used responsibly.

 

[Tripod]

Either this is the most pointless argument ever that you're trying to make or you don't understand how to use statistics. I really, really wouldn't be surprised if it's the former with you.

As has been pointed out many times just in the last page, and as most people who have been around for the last year or so should know by now, stats just present raw (or refined, in the case of advanced stats) information and facts, it's up to the reader to interpret and utilize them intelligently and responsibly. Stats grow in strength when they're used within appropriate contexts and aren't viewed as simplistically as "this stat says X player isn't a first liner". With your Giroux example, again as has been explained to you already, it doesn't take into account PP and PK time (which is a huge part of Giroux's game) and it doesn't take into account contextual usage such as zone starts or quality of competition or team's systems (all of which were a big factor for Giroux last season with the way Berube utilized him). In those contexts the chart makes a lot more sense.

They're tools, it's as simple as that. It's not up to the tools to make sure they're used responsibly.

Are you calling DFF a tool?

Well said though. Advanced stats are just 1 piece of a much larger puzzle.