Race for the Rocket Richard 2021 - Part II

[Hockey Outsider]

Possibly, but just looking at what the players rounding out the top five need in order to tie Matthews.

• Rantanen, 8 goals in 12 games
• McDavid, 9 goals in 11 games
• Marchand, 9 goals in 10 games
• Ovechkin, 9 goals in 9 games

The race is virtually over at this point. Here's the probabilities I calculate for these five players winning the Rocket Richard:

• Matthews - 97.8%
• Rantanen - 1.3%
• McDavid - 0.7%
• Marchand - 0.5%
• Ovechkin - 0.2%

If the remainder of the season played out 50 times, Matthews would take the Richard 49 times.

(Even if Matthews doesn't score another goal this year - ie serious injury or cold streak - he'd still take the Richard around 83% of the time, assuming his competition stays healthy).

 

[Dekes For Days]

I think for the most part all hockey fans are happy for Matthews.

You would think so, but in actuality, people have gone to pretty ridiculous lengths to try and discredit him.

 

[hoglund]

You would think so, but in actuality, people have gone to pretty ridiculous lengths to try and discredit him.

I've noticed that too.

 

[Rhaegar Targaryen]

....or the norm you need to come to grips with.

Most goal scorers hit their peak before or in their 5th season. IMO this won’t be the norm for Matthews, someone younger and better will come along.

 

[guidmaker]

Most goal scorers hit their peak before or in their 5th season. IMO this won’t be the norm for Matthews, someone younger and better will come along.

Hitting his peak would mean it's exactly the norm that we can expect going forward until the eventual late 30s drop off.

That is one crazy, disingenuous reach by an obvious ulterior motive.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Hitting his peak would mean it's exactly the norm that we can expect going forward until the eventual late 30s drop off.

That is one crazy, disingenuous reach by an obvious ulterior motive.

That poster claims to be a Leaf fan but is in fact extremely anti Leaf

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Hitting his peak would mean it's exactly the norm that we can expect going forward until the eventual late 30s drop off.

That is one crazy, disingenuous reach by an obvious ulterior motive.

In fairness, your specific example actually helps that poster's argument. Ovechkin's "peak" season was before that red line. He never again came close to scoring 65 goals after that red line.

In fact, his three best seasons (according to pace) were before that line.

 

[Morbo]

That poster claims to be a Leaf fan but is in fact extremely anti Leaf

I understand why a sens fan would be so bitter towards Matthews, honestly.

 

[budzz]

Ovi is the one guy that could score a bunch in a hurry. If I remember he had a very slow start this year and was waaay back. He has slowly climbed back in the race. I seem to remember last year, as I was following Matthews vs other goal scorers, I think at one point OVI had like 8 goals in a 3 game stretch or something crazy. On average Matthews is good for one every couple of games, if he keeps that pace it's a done deal.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Most goal scorers hit their peak before or in their 5th season. IMO this won’t be the norm for Matthews, someone younger and better will come along.

Prepare to be in pain.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Prepare to be in pain.

The most hilarious part is that part of the reason that myth has perpetuated is because many of the league's superstars came up in the early cap era when PP time inflated their raw numbers, which caused the perception of production primes to become somewhat skewed for this past generation.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

As the end of the season draws nigh, the cricket population in this one rises exponentially.

Looks like Jesus is the only one who will have a shot given an extremely easy end of season schedule. Ridiculous to think that if not for a wrist injury Matthews is probably already at or close to 40.

 

[jetsforever]

Ok Matthews is an absolute monster
Up to 36 now, this is getting ridiculous

 

[Dustin]

So 40 for Matthews is absolutely in reach...

 

[authentic]

As the end of the season draws nigh, the cricket population in this one rises exponentially.

Looks like Jesus is the only one who will have a shot given an extremely easy end of season schedule. Ridiculous to think that if not for a wrist injury Matthews is probably already at or close to 40.

He would've hit 40 a while ago without the wrist injury. We would be talking about a player closing in on 50 by seasons end. He has just been that good in games where he's been able to shoot, basically a goal a game.

 

[authentic]

Marner struggled badly last year. He didn't play well at all. In fact, the Leafs in general didn't play well. Furthermore, Matthews spent a lot of time in the off season working on his fitness and conditioning. He dropped 15 lbs.

So a leaner and faster Matthews probably should increase his ppg. Also helps that the Leafs are playing much better than last year, particularly his playmaking winger.

In their world everyone peaked at 22, they can't possibly get any better.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Most goal scorers hit their peak before or in their 5th season. IMO this won’t be the norm for Matthews, someone younger and better will come along.

Correct.

It's very doubtful that ANY player will have multiple seasons like THIS in today's NHL. But who cares? If this is his peak, it's a great peak & we're all fortunate to witness it. He can follow this year up with a lots & lots of 35-40 goal seasons and I'll be more than happy with his career.

And yes, someone younger & better will come along. Eventually, they do that. Sad news for you, but.....that might be little while.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

Correct.

It's very doubtful that ANY player will have multiple seasons like THIS in today's NHL. But who cares? If this is his peak, it's a great peak & we're all fortunate to witness it. He can follow this year up with a lots & lots of 35-40 goal seasons and I'll be more than happy with his career.

And yes, someone younger & better will come along. Eventually, they do that. Sad news for you, but.....that might be little while.

Why would you cap him at 35 /40 ? He's been ahead of that pace every year in his career. If he doesn't have multiple 50 goal seasons ( barring career altering injury) at the end of his career that would be disappointing. However winning could tilt this perspective

 

[34]

#34 is your Winner.

 

[ViD]

#34 is your Winner.

Not even close, Kaprizov has it locked with his impact on the team and number of goals he’s scored

edit: fail, I know

 

[Rabid Ranger]

Not even close, Kaprizov has it locked with his impact on the team and number of goals he’s scored

Do you even realize the thread you are in or are you on Russian propaganda autopilot?

 

[ViD]

Do you even realize the thread you are in or are you on Russian propaganda autopilot?

The latter obviously

 

[McVespa99]

I said at the beginning of the year that I thought this was Matthews best chance at a Rocket. He is an easy winner at this point.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Why would you cap him at 35 /40 ? He's been ahead of that pace every year in his career. If he doesn't have multiple 50 goal seasons ( barring career altering injury) at the end of his career that would be disappointing. However winning could tilt this perspective

Yes, he likely will get more some years. But I'm being conservative(just to make a point, really). Just saying that I don't care if he's a 50 goal a year guy all the time. He's still a great player and scorer and I'd be very happy with 35-40 goals every year.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Most goal scorers hit their peak before or in their 5th season. IMO this won’t be the norm for Matthews, someone younger and better will come along.

I'm shocked you feel this way. Shocked I tells you.