Race for the Rocket Richard 2021 - Part II

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by spiny norman, Apr 21, 2021.

  1. spiny norman Administrator

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    Please continue.
     
  2. jetsforever Registered User

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    ...still Matthews
     
  3. Wendels Duster Registered User

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    Matthews to lose
     
  4. kmart Registered User

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    ovi needs multiple hattrick games, i dont see it this year, the schedule is tough as well
     
  5. Rants Mulliniks Registered User

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    So for interest’s sake, in the 5 seasons since Matthews has entered the league, when you look at goal scoring P60, only one player appears in the top ten seasons more than once. Matthews is at 2nd, 3rd and 10th.

    Of the 5 names that get thrown around (Matthews, OV, Pastrnak, Draisaitl and McDavid), only two names appear in the top 50 more than once: Matthews and OV.

    Matthews – 2nd, 3rd, 10th, 13th, 43rd
    OV – 5th, 38th, 40th, 42nd
    Pastrnak – 18th
    Draisaitl – None
    McDavid – 48th

    What you can basically take from that is that at 5 on 5, in the time given, Matthews is hands down the most proficient goal scorer of the past half decade.

    For those of you greatly offended by P60 and enamoured with raw totals, Matthews raw totals are 9% higher than second best despite Matthews having played around 30 less games than most of the field.

    Where Matthews falls behind in that time frame is on the PP. If you look at his P60 production on PP, it’s actually been pretty good but as pointed out, he was often given less opportunity.

    For the raw totals folks out there, over that time frame, he is 27 PP goals off the leader. Where it gets interesting is looking at the last two seasons. Over the last two seasons his ES ice time has risen 16 % and his PP ice time has risen 25%. Over that time frame he leads in raw goals, leads in raw ES goals and is 4 off the raw PP goal lead. He also leads in P60.

    Long and the short of it is what people said about P60 with regards to Matthews has basically exactly translated. Once given the same opportunities as others, the raw totals have followed. This guy is legit and barring injury, you are witnessing a once in a rare while goal scorer. With any luck these stupid short seasons will soon end so we can watch his career onslaught (also hopefully no injuries derail it like Stamkos).

    As a side note, Gallagher is underrated. He’ll never be a 40 – 50 guy but he appears in the top 50 list three times - 12, 17, 36. Proficient little pest.
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2021
  6. ViD #CBJNeedHugs

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    I hope Ovie hits 30, that’s bigger than winning Rocket
     
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  7. slapKing Registered User

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    Yeah, Matthews is going to win the rocket this year.
     
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  8. Rants Mulliniks Registered User

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    #34 at 27 seconds in.
     
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  9. Rants Mulliniks Registered User

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  10. Saint Blue Registered User

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  11. The Podium Registered User

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    Thats another crazy Gretzky stat
     
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  12. daver Registered User

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    No it hasn't.

    From 17/18 to 18/19, He was 3rd in P/60 and 24th in ES TOI - NHL Stats

    From 19/20 to now, he is 11th in P/60 and T1st in ES TOI - NHL Stats

    It has translated exactly how non-Leaf fans were saying it would; that TOI and point production is not linear. And TOI is irrelevant when discussing the very best forwards in the game.

    So unless you want to stick to the P/60 and agree that Matthews is a not a Top 10 point producer, we can look at his raw totals.

    BTW, like McDavid's point totals, his goal totals this year are a statistical anomaly. Not doubting his ability to win the Rocket but not by this much in a normal season.
     
  13. Rants Mulliniks Registered User

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    No one has ever argued it is linear. That's one of those arguments people invent and argue against themselves. It's a goalpost shift.

    Again, if you believe 20 full 60 minute games of PP time isn't relevant to raw totals, I don't know what to tell you? Lol and behold.....
     
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  14. Cotton Registered User

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    What popping out to me from that graphic is how much of a stud Dale Hawerchuk was.
     
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  15. CN8 Registered User

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    He would have been a lot bigger legend if he didn’t play for the Jets
     
  16. shaner89 Registered User

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    Franchise stud Matthews is

    on pace for nearly 70 goals in a full 82 game schedule

    INCREDIBLE
     
  17. gtrower Registered User

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    2 more games against NYI isn’t gonna help his chances.

    After 60 mins of clutch/grab scoreless hockey last night the Islanders had 4 minutes of OT puck possession in which they got off 1 SOG. How in the hell can you find a way to make 3v3 boring.
     
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  18. Dekes For Days Registered User

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    Not that ES was ever even the focus of the discussions, but I'll put aside all of the countless issues, misrepresentations, strawmen, and falsities in your post for a second, just because we happen to be at an extremely hilarious point.

    2017-2019: 15:57 ES TOI/GP, 2.95 ES P/60
    2019-2021: 17:58 ES TOI/GP, 2.95 ES P/60

    PP production has also maintained despite a 50 second increase.
     
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  19. CanadasTeam We The North

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    #34 with his 34th goal
     
  20. Mats13 Registered User

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    “Race”

    What an interesting word to use. I always thought a race meant multiple people.

    It’s a one man “race”
     
  21. filinski77 Registered User

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    Do you think Matthews has improved as a hockey player from his first few seasons? I know most Leafs fans would say yes, and that they can visibly see that he his development has taken another step the last couple years.

    If you agree, wouldn't that contradict what you are saying above? It seems to me that if he has improved as a player, that's the main reason for why he has maintained his magical /60 stats despite increasing TOI since his first few years. It would not at all provide any support to say that increasing his TOI back then would have yielded increased production.
     
  22. daver Registered User

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    Where are you getting your numbers?

    His P/60 in 18/19 was 2.77 (5th best). His P/60 in 19/20 was 2.33 (17th best) after getting a big jump in minutes.

    As many are saying, this year is a statistical anomaly.
     
  23. Dekes For Days Registered User

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    He has improved, which is reflected in, among many others things, his career high ES P/60, while getting a career high ES TOI/GP this year, despite playing through injury for a good portion of the season. However, his production abilities through 2017-2019 were more similar to last year than raw stat watchers would like to believe. He just got less opportunity.
    Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick
    Player Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

    I used your time periods. Exact same in both. Not that it really matters for the actual point of those discussions that you seem to have missed, but hilarious nonetheless.
    There's no reason to think this is an anomaly. He's actually still quite low in PP time relative to his peers, so lots of room to increase his raw production still.
     
  24. Sidney the Kidney Missing Link

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    What popped out to me was how much easier it was to score in the 80's and how some of those totals from that era need to be taken with a grain of salt.
     
  25. Dekes For Days Registered User

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    It gets even more crazy when you realize how few games Matthews has played relative to them.

    ES Goals/GP

    1. Gretzky - 0.63
    2. Lemieux - 0.48
    3. Matthews - 0.45
    4. Goulet - 0.41
    5. Hawerchuk - 0.38
    6. Yzerman - 0.36
    6. Crosby - 0.36
     

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