Race for the Calder - Part II

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by spiny norman, Apr 20, 2021.

  1. trinitymorris Registered User

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    Hmmm, 21 more points (and 0.27 PPG) than the next player might have something to do with winning. Ya think?

    Just making sure we get all the facts out there.
     
  2. MuckOG The Brodin Effect

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    Which was probably inflated due to the fact that Patrick Kane (and his 106 points) was playing on his other wing. I know we don't like hypotheticals around here, but can you imagine the numbers Kaprizov would put up playing on a line with someone as skilled as Patrick Kane in 2015-2016?
     
  3. trinitymorris Registered User

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    Same with Robertson though. And with 1 more minute of PP a game for Robertson, oh boy I can only imagine!

    But you/we are getting off track.
     
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  4. Lord Nikon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    You do that is for sure. You literally stated he was on pace 39 goals, that in itself is a hypothetical.
     
  5. MuckOG The Brodin Effect

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    No, it's a fact that he's on pace for 39 goals. Him finishing with 39 goals is a hypothetical.
     
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  6. serp Registered User

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    The main reason Panarin won is because McDavid got injured .
     
  7. thestonedkoala Everyone! PANIC!

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    Reading into this; they had to select five players and that was a strong rookie year with Pettersson, Binnington, Dahlin, Tkachuk, Cirelli, Svechnikov, and Hart all in the mix. Heiskaken was 4th that year in a strong rookie class.

    You know who was left off a ton of Calders ballots as well? Brodin.
     
  8. Lord Nikon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    Fact would be he would undeniably reach that mark.
     
  9. Al Lagoon Registered User

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    Given that hockey writers decide this, and because of this year's wonky schedule many will not have seen all the eligible rookies play live, hype and PR will be important factors in deciding the winner.

    Edge Kaprizov there, fair or not.
     
  10. WetcoastOrca Registered User

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    Oh for sure he’s having a great year. Just pointless to compare it to those 18 and 19 year olds rookie goal scoring.
     
  11. rynryn Reluctant Optimist

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    . i mean, fact is Robertson would look much worse than he does if he had rask or hartman centering him all year. is that a fact? would you agree with it?
     
  12. Kcb12345 Registered User

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    Hasn't really mattered who JRob plays with. What production he gets from his linemates, Kaprizov gets on the PP. It evens out so that is hardly a worthy argument.

    He makes everyone better and there's a reason his stats are fine even without Hintz and Pavelski.

    I still think Kaprizov will win the Calder, but the linemates excuse is lazy
     
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  13. Lord Nikon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    No because there is still no proof he would. Who is to say he would not still put up the numbers, after all Kirill did.
     
  14. rynryn Reluctant Optimist

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    linemates excuse is lazy and not germane except to refute the idea that Robertson is "driving" his line to some great extent (that's what you guys seem to have landed on as a reason why Robertson deserves this award) and would be doing just as well playing with fourth line talent. which is ludicrous.

    you guys for whatever reason can't seem to comprehend how the award is voted, and that some abstract "makes his linemates better" argument does not in any way whatsoever trump "goals scored". playing with guys like Rask and Hartman and putting up numbers is still more impressive than throwing up helpers for players that are already good.
     
  15. rynryn Reluctant Optimist

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    Even if linemates were swapped and the defense behind them and coaches and divisions...
    Exactly, no facts there.
    Fact: Kaprizov has more goals. Which is usually what wins a Calder.
     
  16. ClaudeSpeed Registered User

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    Unless Robertson goes on some tear in the next few games and gets the Stars into the playoffs, and hope Nashville choke, it's gonna go to Kaprizov. Kap has been a highlight reel since the first game of the season, points leader of a team comfortably in the playoffs, and definitely the team MVP. Everytime he hits the ice I feel like something special may happen. I've tried to watch my fair share of Stars games and Robertson is damn good but he doesn't have the skill Kaprizov has. It's been exciting to see the race Robertson turned this into but right now it's still Kaprizov's to lose.
     
  17. Nino Noderreiter Registered User

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    Couple of stats to add to the conversation:

    PIM Drawn - Kaprizov has drawn 44 PIM this year compared to Robertson's 8 PIM drawn.

    Players who draw a lot of penalties generally do so because of the pressure they are putting opposing players in and forcing them to take penalties to stop the player (some can be accidental as well). Kaprizov is top 10 in the league in terms of PIM drawn. Posters pointed towards the fact that Kaprizov has a lot more PP time--well Kaprizov's dominance on the puck and ability to put himself in positions where defenders have to take penalties on him is the biggest reason for that difference in PP time.

    Unblocked High Danger scoring shots - Kaprizov has 19 high danger scoring shots compared to Robertson's 5 high danger scoring shots

    High danger scoring chances are the hardest and most valuable scoring chances to try to generate. The reason that they are difficult to generate is that opposing teams focus their defense are preventing these types of chances. It usually requires a more skillful player to be able to take pucks to these areas and generate scoring chances in these areas.

    Unblocked Medium Danger scoring shots - Kaprizov has 51 medium danger scoring shots while Robertson has 38.

    Individual High Danger Scoring Chances - Kaprizov has 65 individual total high danger scoring chances (~30th) compared to Robertson's 47 (~100th).

    Team High Danger Scoring Chances - Kaprizov's team has 183 high danger scoring chances when he's on the ice and has converted 29 of them. Robertson's team has 198 high danger scoring chances and has converted 41 of them.

    I think this stat is the best way we can reliably see data that can tell us about quality of play from linemates. Despite producing significantly fewer individual high danger scoring chances (47 versus 65), Robertson's team has produced 198 high danger scoring chances when on the ice. Yes, this could also to some degree suggest that Robertson--through his passing--is creating significantly more high danger scoring chances for others, but given the difference in assists is just 5... I don't think it's the primary factor.

    This means that Robertson's team has 151 high danger scoring chances that aren't Robertson...compared to Kaprizov having 118 high danger scoring chances. This means that Robertson's teammates are generating high danger scoring chances much more frequently than Kaprizov's. When we look at rates, this means that Kaprizov generates ~36% of his teams high danger scoring chances when he's on the ice versus Robertson's 24%. In addition, I could not find high danger scoring goal data... but if we assume that roughly 80% of goals come from high danger scoring areas this means that Kaprizov's team has converted roughly 9 high danger scoring chances for goals that aren't Kaprizov and that Kaprizov has produced roughly 69% of his teams high danger goals.

    Robertson's team has scored 41 high danger goals and if we do the same math that means that they've scored 29 high danger scoring area goals without Robertson's direct chances. That's 20 more high danger goals and it means Robertson is directly producing and converting about 40% of his teams high danger scoring areas when he's on the ice.

    To keep going on this point, Kaprizov has recorded a point on ~77% of his teams goals when on the ice compared to Robertson's just under 74%. This may not seem like a lot, but the league leaders are roughly in the low to mid 80s and it's the difference from roughly ~30th and 60th in the NHL. Again, this is not a Robertson is bad it's just a comparison against Kaprizov.

    We can actually look at linemate production by looking at their individual high danger scoring chances. Rask has generated 15 individual high danger scoring chances (.30 high danger scoring chances/game) and Zuccarello has generated 26 high danger scoring chances (.68 high danger chances per game). This is a total of 41 high danger scoring chances in a total of 77 games or .53 high danger scoring chances per game while Kaprizov is generating ~1.30 high danger scoring chances per game.

    Pavelski has generated 79 high danger scoring chances in 52 games or 1.22 high danger scoring chances per game. Hintz has 58 high danger scoring chances in 39 games (~1.50 per game). Robertson is generating 1 high danger scoring attempt per game. This means that Robertson's linemates are generating roughly 2.7 high danger scoring chances per game compared to .53 high danger scoring chances per game for Kaprizov's linemates.

    It may even be true that Robertson is part of the reason that his teammates generate so many high danger scoring chances. However, it's clear (because Kaprizov also generates a lot of scoring chances for his teammates) that we're looking at both two different levels of individual play as well as huge differences in quality of linemates and their ability to create high danger scoring chances that lead to high danger goals.

    Conclusion -

    It's clear that Kaprizov individually produces more than Robertson outside of the quality of his linemates. If Kaprizov isn't scoring or generating chances, comparatively, his team is not able to generate just about any production. Robertson is certainly a big time contributor in his own right, but it's clear his linemates with or without his help can produce more quality scoring chances and goals than Kaprizov's. In addition, Kaprizov's ability to do things like draw penalties (which puts himself on the PP where he plays with Fiala and is so dangerous) is another positive indicator first for level of dominance, but second in producing points and impact.
     
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  18. Kcb12345 Registered User

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    I assume these are all at even strength? Otherwise they are severely flawed considering Kaprizov gets wayyy more PP time. Very impressive though that Kaprizov has a significant skating and ice time advantage though and JRob still keeps these pretty close

    This stat is also interesting:

     
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  19. rynryn Reluctant Optimist

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    what this says is Dallas doesn't get scoring from it's depth players.
     
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  20. Nino Noderreiter Registered User

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    I believe that it does include all minutes. I think that I did address the PP difference in a couple of key ways. The first being that Kaprizov himself is quite literally responsible for 44 PIM drawn (or almost 1 minute per game) which almost entirely explains the differences in PP time between him and Robertson. If Robertson was as dangerous as Kaprizov with the puck and forced teams to commit fouls to stop him... he’d have thre same number of PP opportunities. Kaprizov is creating that difference.

    Second, yes it’s important to isolate 5 on 5 production for a variety of reasons. But that’s ridiculous to say we have to completely discount PP production like it’s not a thing and any player produces at the same rate on the PP. It also has little to do with the line mate conversation. In fact, it hurts your argument. Including PP time, Kaprizov’s teammates produce less high quality scoring chances than Robertson (so even weighting the higher quality play time that Kaprizov has)

    Third, the tweet you posted is really more so a conversation about how good the Stars 1st line has been. How many minutes does Robertson have without them this season? Stars fans have talked about in this thread the lack of quality NHL talent on their other lines. If you stack one line and have 3 horrible ones... yes the differential will be a lot.

    That’s not to say that Robertson hasn’t unlocked that line and isn’t responsible for a lot of that... but it’s not quite the dunk you think that it is.

    The Wild get a lot of scoring from the Ek, Greenway, Foligno line and from Fiala on different lines. It’s not surprising that the difference between Kaprizov one man armying his line and spreading out talent between the other lines doesn’t produce as big of a differential.

    Again, clearly Robertson has a big impact and that line is awesome. Robertson is a reason why that line is awesome, but he doesn’t produce a lot of grade A scoring chances for himself compared to other elite wingers and actually produces the least high quality scoring chances out of the 3. It’s clear that he’s really good at setting up his teammates rather than someone who is actually taking the puck into those areas himself and scoring—which is fine. Again, this is not saying he’s bad just comparing his production and digging into his “numbers” and what they mean versus Kaprizov.

    Kaprizov has more high quality scoring chances himself than his 2 line mates combined. Robertson’s linemates basically double him combined. None of this says anything bad about Robertson and it’s true he’s probably to some degree responsible for that production of his linemates or helping unlock it but there’s just a difference to what the two players have done this season.

    Kaprizov drags a line kicking and screaming into relevance by dominating the game. Robertson has been the 3rd most dominant scoring chance producing player on a really good line.

    It’s not really that surprising to see that stats that close despite advantages in ice time. In general, those metrics aren’t close we’re talking about multiple tier of player differences. However, when a player plays on a line that produces that many high danger scoring chances... the numbers are going to be close. Kaprizov has to do it himself where Robinson can play with two players who are also huge difference makers in a relative sense.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021
  21. KaprizovSaveUs Fiala assist alert

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  22. Chrisinroch Registered User

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    5 games left
     
  23. space321 Registered User

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    Again, why do Dallas fans continue to diminish Kaprizov's accomplishments with things like "he's old" and "even strength points hurr durr" and then come around and whine about it when people discuss Robertson's quality of linemantes?

    What about the fact that Robertson has previous NHL experience? Or the fact he grew up playing on an NHL sized rink? Kaprizov literally never played in NA before, so isn't it an accomplishment that he's been able to transition so seamlessly to NHL ice?

    Also, Robertson is only 2 years younger than Kaprizov, why the f*** are we acting like it's a Panarin vs McDavid situation lmao...
     
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  24. Mookie Blaylock The in between is mine

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    Favorite post of this whole thread. :thumbu:
     
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  25. trinitymorris Registered User

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    This is funny.

    Thank you.
     

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