Race for the Calder - Part II

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by spiny norman, Apr 20, 2021.

  1. Lord Nikon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    Well why isn't it factored in? Minny fans are so quick to discount Robertson success since he plays on a "stacked" line with a 37 year old Pavelski but Kaprizov gets a pass playing with Fiala on the PP where 1/4 of his points come from?
     
  2. ThatGuy22 Registered User

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    Everything is factored in. You like to push the factors the favor Robertson, and discount factors that favor Kaprizov. Many Wild fans are doing the same, in reverse.

    At the end of the day, it's very likely to be the large difference in goals that make the difference in voters minds in my opinion.

    If the goals were closer the other more minute things would make a difference. Linesmates favors Kaprizov, 5v5 production favors Robertson. Some voters would likey take age into consideration(even though they shouldn't) and that would favor Robertson. Some voters might take into account ones a playoff team (even though they shouldn't) and that would favor Kaprizov. etc, etc.

    But most voter's will have trouble getting passed the more basic thing like a 10 goal lead to even get to considering the minutia.
     
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  3. Lord Nikon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    I think the fact that Robertson plays for Dallas is more of a hinderance than anything else to be honest. The way Heiskanen was f***ed over it just proof of it. Not saying that he should of won it but to not be in the top 5 was one of the most egregious things i have seen in any Calder voting. No matter who wins this year they will be deserving.
     
  4. District 5 Registered User

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    Heiskanen finished 4th in Calder voting in 18-19
     
  5. P10p Registered User

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    Pavelski is still clearly a great player and trying to throw out his age as a counter just comes across as disingenuous. As for our powerplay, it also features Rask and Bonino.
     
  6. P10p Registered User

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    Guy likes to just make things up it seems :help:
     
  7. ThatGuy22 Registered User

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    I mean, MN isn't exactly a media darling. Or I say wasn't, until Kaprizov.

    DGB has this in a recent post of his

    Kaprizov highlight real and subsequent hype is of his own making. Not anything to do with the market. I do think after raw point toals, that highlight real/hype along with the goal totals is likely going to be the furthest most voters look.
     
  8. Lord Nikon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    My mistake i thought he finished 6th actually. Nevertheless it was still a disaster and completely a f*** job. How in the hell is he left off 38 ballots? An absolute disaster.
     
  9. Lord Nikon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    Hey look its the guy who likes insulting other posters. Get a life!
     
  10. Nino Noderreiter Registered User

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    I don't think anyone is saying the line Robertson plays on is the most stacked in the league, it's just a comparison between the line that Kaprizov plays on and the line that Robertson plays on. It's not that deep it's just the counter to the 5 on 5 argument. Yes, Robertson has produced more points even strength. Wild fans are just responding saying that it's true that Robertson has produced more 5 on 5, but that, in a vacuum, doesn't take into account the differences in the strength of the lines that the two players play on during even strength minutes.

    Again, that doesn't mean that Robertson is bad. It's just a reason why Kaprizov doesn't produce quite as many points even strength. Kaprizov has less help, both in generating chances for himself in scoring areas and in his linemates finishing chances he generates for them. Wild fans are saying it's incredible how much Kaprizov has been able to produce given the quality of his linemates at even strength. Again, none of this means Robertson is a bad player.

    It would be interesting to see a stat like a "high danger chances created per game or per 60" and see how the two measured out. Again I want to stress, none of this is saying that Robertson is bad.

    To further make a point of why this matters, you or another Stars poster acknowledged that the Stars haven't had a lot of NHL talent available outside the Robertson lined and "no one not even McDavid" could produce with the Stars 4th line or some of the talent they have.

    This is an acknowledgement that the level of players that you play with does matter. If it didn't matter, than how could no one produce with them? If the level of linemates does matter or does impact the point production of a player...than how is discussing the difference between the quality of linemates between Kaprizov and Robertson when they play at ES not a fair and relevant discussion point?

    The only point that Wild fans are making is that Robertson would produce less at even strength than he does now if he had worse linemates and Kaprizov would produce more at even strength if he had better linemates. Robertson has worse linemates than Kaprizov which means that Kaprizov would produce more at ES than he does now with Robertson's linemates and vice versa for Robinson with Kaprizov's linemates.

    This does not change the caliber of player that either player is. The point is that you know how good Robertson is and him producing less with worse linemates doesn't make him a worse player... he just has less support and thus less opportunities to produce points or has to do more himself in order to do so. Point production is one measure of skill and value to a team, but we can dig deeper and add more context to numbers to make them more informative and truly discuss what they mean and don't mean.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021
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  11. Kshahdoo Registered User

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    Jamie Benn and Gurianov are 4th liners nowadays, poor guys. Will a 4th rounder be enough for Gurianov? It's a decent price for a 4th liner, and he has a history of playing with Kaprizov.
     
  12. trinitymorris Registered User

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    No one discounted, merely said that Robertson had more even stregnth points, which are worth more. Similar how to goals are more important than assists... See how I/Stars' fans can admit advantages to Kaprizov yet Wild fans like you won't admit how Robertson's better at 5v5 making his stats more impressive in that regard.

    Speaking of which, Kaprisov gets 1:30 minutes of more ice time per game, 1 minute of which is on the PP. If Robertson had the advantage of 1 more minute of power play time EVERY game, he'd obviously have at least 5 more points. How is that not a valid point to bring up?

    Unlike, "road points generated are going to be the deciding factor, or if not for McDavid, Kaprisov would win the Hart."
    Give me a break if you think for a second that Wild fans haven't been spewing more ridiculous crap that Stars' fans. They/you are mad that not everyone has anointed Kaprisov Calder winner since week 1.
     
  13. Plickspect Registered User

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    If Kaprizov had the advantage of shooting 100%, he'd have at least 142 more goals. How is that not a valid point to bring up?

    Sorry but your hypothetical PP time is not a valid point to bring up because it's exactly that, hypothetical.

    Anyway if I had a vote, it would be Kaprizov simply because of the goal differential. Extrapolated to 82 games, 39 vs 28 is just too big of a gulf for Robertson to overcome.

    Both players are having incredibly impressive rookie campaigns and I am excited to see them square off against each other for years to come.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021
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  14. trinitymorris Registered User

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    What's hypothetical about facts? Are you saying Robertson would not have a single point more if he had 1 more minute of PP ice time PER GAME?

    This is what I'm talking about, you can't have a rational discussion with people like this. What I said was completely rational, I didn't say Robertson would have 10/20/30 more points, I said 5 whole points. I'm not exaggerating, like you, (Kaprisov 142 more goals, really?) at all.

    And I stand by my original point/post, Wild fans (not all, but some) have brought up so many more ridiculous reasons why they think Kaprisov should win, than Stars' fans. I'm not saying some points aren't valid (more goals/etc.), but road points generated/Hart winner if not for McDavid? Give me a f***ing break.
     
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  15. ThatGuy22 Registered User

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    We don't know he's better at 5v5.

    What we know is has 1 more point at 5v5, and scores at a slightly higher rate 5v5 with quality linemates.

    We know Kaprizov has 1 less point, and scores at slightly less rate (but still very good rate) 5v5 without an anything resembling a top 6 Center.
     
  16. MuckOG The Brodin Effect

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    Kaprizov is on a 82 game pace of 39 goals. The only players to hit that number as a rookie since the 03-04 lockout are Ovechkin, Matthews and Crosby.
     
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  17. trinitymorris Registered User

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    Should have stopped right there. Your stats are wrong, as I'm sure they are in many places.
     
  18. trinitymorris Registered User

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    24yo Kaprisov and teenage Ovechkin/Matthews/Crosby. Not discrediting, just making this statistic more accurate. Don't @ me.
     
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  19. Plickspect Registered User

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    He most definitely would. He would indeed have several.

    But he doesn't, so it doesn't matter.
     
  20. Lord Nikon ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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    [​IMG]
     
  21. MuckOG The Brodin Effect

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    ...and to be even more accurate, Kaprizov is a year younger than Panarin was when he won the Calder after netting 30 goals.
     
  22. Chrisinroch Registered User

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  23. WetcoastOrca Registered User

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    A pretty meaningless stat imo given the ages of those three others when they hit it.
    Not trying to diminish what Kaprizov has done as a rookie but doing it at his age is far less impressive imo.
     
  24. MNNumbers Registered User

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    No particular reason for quoting this post....

    I just want to place this idea in front of people.....

    "What if?" is an incredibly bad way to argue these things. I mean that for BOTH fan bases...

    What if Kaprisov had Robertson's line mates? Well, we don't know, because he doesn't.
    What if Robertson had Kaprisov's Power Play time? Well, he doesn't. (Why they don't play him on the PP is a perplexing coaches' decision in my mind. If he is the only guy on the team who can drive offense, then above all he should be on the PP.)
    And, so on.

    Fact is, for the first time in a long time, both of these teams have a rookie to be excited about. No matter who wins, each fan base should be happy about that. If each fan base is convinced their guy is having the better season, then everyone should be satisfied they have the guy they want.

    Personal hardware doesn't really amount to good bragging rights. The future of the team does, and both of these teams have it in spades.
     
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  25. MuckOG The Brodin Effect

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    Its less of a meaningless stat when you consider that only 8 players have scored more goals than Kaprizov this season.
     
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