Player Discussion Quinn Hughes, Pt. VII

Burke's Evil Spirit

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I'm a Dougie stan, and obviously adding an elite player is good, but if the need is for a defensive-oriented top-four guy then Hamilton shouldn't be a priority. A lot of his value is on the PP, and he and Hughes would cannibalize each other in that regard. There's 0% chance Dougie is signing here anyway.

I've been saying repeatedly that Jake McCabe should absolutely be a prime target for a defensive top-four player: Still young-ish (age 27), likely undervalued coming off a tough season in Buffalo and injuries, and sterling isolated defensive metrics.

McCabe is coming off a major injury though, and I don't know how likely it is an East Coast-based American UFA signs with a terrible western Canadian team. I just don't see the fit.

My candidate is Brett Kulak. One more year left at $1.85M, probably will be unprotected in the expansion draft, Western Canadian kid who is likely to re-sign if the fit works out, outstanding defensive impact:
 

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supercanuck

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I think Green likes having one "stopper" pair to play ultra-tough minutes. The Hughes-Schmidt pairing got a butter soft deployment which potentially makes the corsi-for misleading.

That being said, I would like to see Hughes thrown into some tough minutes to see if he can sink or swim. Worst case scenario, his numbers tank and his contract isn't as onerous.

Yeah, especially in garbage time now. There is no harm in trying them out together for a few games.
 

timw33

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McCabe is coming off a major injury though, and I don't know how likely it is an East Coast-based American UFA signs with a terrible western Canadian team. I just don't see the fit.

My candidate is Brett Kulak. One more year left at $1.85M, probably will be unprotected in the expansion draft, Western Canadian kid who is likely to re-sign if the fit works out, outstanding defensive impact:

Another guy I would look at is Philippe Myers. Philadelphia can't protect him in the expansion draft and he's an outstanding asset - would easily give up a 2nd round pick for him.

I am completely on board with both of these ideas. It feels like there are definitely ways to overhaul the D core with guys on the right side of 30 if you have the gumption, pro scouting, and assets to pull it off (I feel like our management has none of these for the record).

Also wondering what STL is planning with Dunn, his name has been floated for a couple seasons now. Pretty annoying that we didn't consider trading down a round to take a flyer on Victor Mete instead of Bowey too now that I think about it more.
 

Burke's Evil Spirit

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I am completely on board with both of these ideas. It feels like there are definitely ways to overhaul the D core with guys on the right side of 30 if you have the gumption, pro scouting, and assets to pull it off (I feel like our management has none of these for the record).

Also wondering what STL is planning with Dunn, his name has been floated for a couple seasons now. Pretty annoying that we didn't consider trading down a round to take a flyer on Victor Mete instead of Bowey too now that I think about it more.

Yup, all the moves I'm spitballing are predicated on new management. If that doesn't happen, I expect Miller will be moved for some dumb toolsy defenseman (someone earlier mentioned Ristolainen...exactly the kind of move I'd expect Jimbo to make).
 
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MS

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Pretty annoying that we didn't consider trading down a round to take a flyer on Victor Mete instead of Bowey too now that I think about it more.

I ... somehow never noticed before that Mete was available for nothing but we traded assets for a far worse player in Bowey, and that Mete would cover the same expansion draft issues.

I guess we would have had to give something for Mete because Ottawa was ahead of us in waiver priority (at the time) but surely Mete could have been had for the same deal.

But again, dinosaur thinking about too many small defenders.
 

bossram

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McCabe is coming off a major injury though, and I don't know how likely it is an East Coast-based American UFA signs with a terrible western Canadian team. I just don't see the fit.

My candidate is Brett Kulak. One more year left at $1.85M, probably will be unprotected in the expansion draft, Western Canadian kid who is likely to re-sign if the fit works out, outstanding defensive impact:

McCabe has had elite defensive impacts for the past 2 seasons. I think he'll be undervalued, so if you offer him a fair contract, I think he could sign here. It's not like Americans have never come to Vancouver before.

I'm a big Kulak fan too. He'll probably be an expansion casualty to Seattle, but if he's not, the Canucks should be in on him. He also has very good defensive metrics, mostly off the back of his transition play. There's a lot of expansion eligible defensemen a competent management group (which we do not have) should be looking to take advantage of.

Kulak, Dermott, Dunn, formerly Mete, should all be targets. Carson Soucy from Minnesota is interesting too.

I suggested McCabe though because there would be no acquisition cost.
 

timw33

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Anyone have access to Evolving Wilds contract predictor who can share the model's estimate for McCabe?
 

bossram

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Anyone have access to Evolving Wilds contract predictor who can share the model's estimate for McCabe?

3 year contract: $3.1 million
4 year contract: $3.7 million
5 year contract: $3.9 million

Fairly affordable. Althought EH's most likely predicted term is 1 year at $1 million, which definitely seems off haha. He is coming off significant injury.

I think given the flat cap world having the bottom fall-out on mid-tier UFAs, the injury, and stench of Buffalo, it's possible you could get McCabe on a cheaper multi-year deal.
 
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timw33

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3 year contract: $3.1 million
4 year contract: $3.7 million
5 year contract: $3.9 million

Fairly affordable. Althought EH's most likely predicted term is 1 year at $1 million, which definitely seems off haha.

I think given the flat cap world having the bottom fall-out on mid-tier UFAs, I think it's possible you could get McCabe on a cheaper multi-year deal.

Does the model factor in his season ending injury causing hesitancy for longer term?

I agree he could get stuck with a Hamonic-like "show me deal" but 4 x 3-3.25MM would probably be a massive win for the team's Top 4.
 

Grantham

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Hughes has been playing really well lately, on both ends of the ice. His advanced stats last game were outstanding. He definitely has it in him to be a more well rounded defensemen.
 
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Johnny Canucker

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You get a minus for shorthanded goals allowed against. Hughes wasn't bad last year 5v5 (+4 goal differential as stated) while having a good defensive partner.


No..... you .... don’t.

if your team is short handed , you will NOT get a minus if the PP team scores on you.

if you’re referring to being on the PP and getting scored on, yes you get a minus and SHOULD if you’re that bad to let a short handed team score in you. Is that the point you’re trying to argue? Lol. If he’s on the ice 5 on 4 and allows a goal, he deserves a minus , maybe 2.
 
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vadim sharifijanov

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there's a lot of negativity about quinn this year, and a lot of it is appropriate.

but i still want to celebrate the year he's having offensively. he has two games left and is one point out of the top ten for dmen.

if he gets three more assists, which isn't out of the question, he breaks into the top ten in assists. afaict, a canuck dman hasn't done that since dennis kearns in 1977.
 

M2Beezy

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Disappointing season but is very young and I looked thru stats of a lot of the greats they had some down seasons in the middle of their great careers so is not the ceiling for Quinn imo theres still lots a room to grow and lots a time to develop and gain the experience AND expertise that he needs it to accel in his position as he has one of the MOST unique styles in the league that could be creating fits for our opponents for decades if he is developed in a proper way with solid coaching and mentoring as some guys just get well some others could really use some guidance to reach new heights and maybe Quinn is one of those guys and maybe someone needs to sit down with him to focus on some things that hes missing like his horrid shot on the pp or missing assignments or how to use his agility and speed in the d zone more effectively and I think it would really help for his frustration to see this management and coaching crew let go asap and bring in someone who can work with Quinn to bring out the best in him. Im optimistic. Lots of potential. I hope this pans out well. His contract will be interesting.
 

Canuckle1970

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Seeing some comparisons again of Hughes vs Makar, who's having a terrific season.

No doubt, Hughes had a challenging sophomore season without his best D partner and mentor (Tanev). The whole team had a challenging year. Yet he still managed to score points, finishing 11th amongst all NHL defensemen. Didn't he also have the most ice time among Canuck D?

I wonder sometimes if we forget why we drafted him, and were thrilled to get him at #7. In his rookie and sophomore years, he became our PP quarterback because he earned it. He can improve his defensive game in the years to come, but his gifts are on offense. Bottom line, especially after his performance in the bubble last summer, I just want to give credit to Hughes and what he means for our future.
 
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StreetHawk

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Another guy I would look at is Philippe Myers. Philadelphia can't protect him in the expansion draft and he's an outstanding asset - would easily give up a 2nd round pick for him.
Philly will protect Provorov and Sanheim for sure. Then it’s up to them who takes the third spot. Meyers is signed longer than Braun is and is younger.
 

StreetHawk

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I am completely on board with both of these ideas. It feels like there are definitely ways to overhaul the D core with guys on the right side of 30 if you have the gumption, pro scouting, and assets to pull it off (I feel like our management has none of these for the record).

Also wondering what STL is planning with Dunn, his name has been floated for a couple seasons now. Pretty annoying that we didn't consider trading down a round to take a flyer on Victor Mete instead of Bowey too now that I think about it more.
Dunn I feel STL will protect. Figure they pick whichever of Krug or Faulk they feel won’t get selected and expose that player due to the term and cap hit.
 
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timw33

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Dunn I feel STL will protect. Figure they pick whichever of Krug or Faulk they feel won’t get selected and expose that player due to the term and cap hit.

My feeling is that more teams in expansion will expose guys who don't have appealing contracts knowing its highly unlikely they get selected, instead of getting extorted for 1sts, 2nds, and solid prospects to protect these guys.

Should be a really interesting offseason.
 
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StreetHawk

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My feeling is that more teams in expansion will expose guys who don't have appealing contracts knowing its highly unlikely they get selected, instead of getting extorted for 1sts, 2nds, and solid prospects to protect these guys.

Should be a really interesting offseason.
Plenty of guys like Mcdonagh in TB who is 32 this year with 5 years and a $6.8 mill cap hit are going to be left exposed. Unlikely to be taken but gives the team the chance to protect younger cheaper options that they like.

exposed doesn’t mean that they will get claimed. Just ensures that the team can protect someone else that they like.
 

MS

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My feeling is that more teams in expansion will expose guys who don't have appealing contracts knowing its highly unlikely they get selected, instead of getting extorted for 1sts, 2nds, and solid prospects to protect these guys.

Should be a really interesting offseason.

Plenty of guys like Mcdonagh in TB who is 32 this year with 5 years and a $6.8 mill cap hit are going to be left exposed. Unlikely to be taken but gives the team the chance to protect younger cheaper options that they like.

exposed doesn’t mean that they will get claimed. Just ensures that the team can protect someone else that they like.

Meanwhile in Vancouver, Tyler Myers and Tanner Pearson will be protected.
 

Melvin

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Moving this to the proper thread...


PlayerP/GPPGPYears AAV C.H.%2021 EquivUFA bought
Cale Makar0.93941016 $ 9.0 11.04% $ 9.00 1
Quinn Hughes0.7597129 ?? ? ? ?
Erik Karlsson0.691492167 $ 6.5 10.11% $ 8.24 2
Dion Phaneuf0.651592436 $ 6.5 12.92% $ 10.53 2
Shayne Gostisbehere0.60851426 $ 4.5 6.16% $ 5.02 3
Thomas Chabot0.60801348 $ 8.0 9.82% $ 8.00 4
Alex Pietrangelo0.541212247 $ 6.5 10.11% $ 8.24 3
Zach Werenski0.541282373 $ 5.0 6.14% $ 5.00 0
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

No doubt that right now Hughes is closer to a Werenski than he is to a Karlsson/Pietrangelo but it's also undeniable that he has outproduced everyone on this list.

Werenski's contract was the only bridge deal given, although Makar's only buys out 1 UFA year (this is why it was cheap, you bozos.)

I think the premise that "players get paid for their points" is pretty weak. Look at the difference between Gostisbehere 6% of caphit vs Phaneuf 13% of cap despite similar production. Pietrangelo got the same deal as Karlsson despite "drastic" lower production. I don't think it's true that P/GP is the driver of these contracts.
 

F A N

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The AAV for Dmen are finally catching up to the forwards. Kind of crazy that some of these guys are making Roman Josi money when they have RFA years.

Before I was in favour of giving term to Hughes vis a vis Petey all else being equal because it would be cheaper to lock up a Dman long term. I thought we were looking at an AAV of between Werenski and Provorov for Hughes. So even if Hughes is overpaid you're really just overpaying him $1-2M. Petey I think will fall somewhere between $8-10M AAV on a long term deal so I do think there's more downside risk with Petey, all else being equal. Not saying it's going to happen, but I think it's a lot easier trading a $6M 2nd pairing Dman who can QB a PP and put up 40+ points than an $8M+ 2nd line C who puts up say 60 points.

If Hughes is looking for Chabot + money, I think bridging him might be the better way to go.
 
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clay

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The AAV for Dmen are finally catching up to the forwards. Kind of crazy that some of these guys are making Roman Josi money when they have RFA years.

Before I was in favour of giving term to Hughes vis a vis Petey all else being equal because it would be cheaper to lock up a Dman long term. I thought we were looking at an AAV of between Werenski and Provorov for Hughes. So even if Hughes is overpaid you're really just overpaying him $1-2M. Petey I think will fall somewhere between $8-10M AAV on a long term deal so I do think there's more downside risk with Petey, all else being equal. Not saying it's going to happen, but I think it's a lot easier trading a $6M 2nd pairing Dman who can QB a PP and put up 40+ points than an $8M+ 2nd line C who puts up say 60 points.

If Hughes is looking for Chabot + money, I think bridging him might be the better way to go.

I've said this in other threads, but if Hughes is looking for an $8M plus deal on a long term contract, I wouldn't be opposed to moving him for a major haul. Of course it depends on the return.

We have OEL and Rathbone on the left who are both completely capable of quarterbacking a first unit powerplay. Despite being an elite power play specialist and offensive talent, Hughes isn't worth $8M due to his lack of defensive ability and I question if he ever will be.
 

Luck 6

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I've said this in other threads, but if Hughes is looking for an $8M plus deal on a long term contract, I wouldn't be opposed to moving him for a major haul. Of course it depends on the return.

We have OEL and Rathbone on the left who are both completely capable of quarterbacking a first unit powerplay. Despite being an elite power play specialist and offensive talent, Hughes isn't worth $8M due to his lack of defensive ability and I question if he ever will be.

I think before we do that we cobble some sort of 2 year deal together, compile more data, then see where we’re at. I don’t want to trade away an elite defenseman, and Hughes could still turn out to be that. There are things that Hughes does that are so unique, things you can’t teach.
 

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