Question about upcoming lottery draft

[Evilo]

The lottery didn't start until 1995 or so. So it would be "one lottery since the lottery came into effect."

Well change that to #1 pick.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

there's no way to tell in january who will pick in the top 5.

I think it's a *very* safe bet that the Blues will be in the top 5, probably a cinch to be in the top 2 barring some unexpected hot streak; you can probably ink the Penguins into the top 5 as well.

 

[Evilo]

Nah.
Last time, the Pens were on a roll, having the best PP and a nice record in the last 25 games.
That would put them out of the bottom 5 this time.
Not saying it will happen, but you can't know.

 

[jb**]

Nah.
Last time, the Pens were on a roll, having the best PP and a nice record in the last 25 games.
That would put them out of the bottom 5 this time.
Not saying it will happen, but you can't know.

with there improved play of late they have shown great signs of not picking in the bottom 5 for the upcoming draft.

 

[theflightlessbirds]

Traded down both times, you cant argue that in the last 5 years pens have had higher draft picks then virtually anyone else.

The penguins have sucked the past five years ok its a simple concept, any true hockey fan will tell you they would rather have there team in the playoffs and onto a stanley cup run than receive a top five pick. Ask the fans of Detroit, New Jersey, Colorado, and Tampa if they would trade their cups for a top five pick. A prospect is just a shot in the dark, but a cup banner hangs forever. (unless they relocate your team) Besides I would give up Crosby, Malkin and Fleury if it meant the Penguins were guaranteed to stay in Pittsburgh. trial organization.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Almost half the Pens team is made up with rookies this year. Half. Something like 11 players on their 23 man roster. That certainly is a factor in the results this year, though was not the plan going in. The Pens may suck now, but with the talent that they have accumulated, and the experience those talented, but very raw and mistake prone, rookies are getting the future certainly seems to be looking up. Add a Kessel or Johnson and all the better.

As for the question, unless I am misremembering the lottery is as follows:

All 14 missing the playoffs are in the lottery.

The team with the worst record has something like a 25% chance of winning. The other 14 teams have the remaining chances. No team below six can move up to win the lottery. So if one of teams 7-14 'win' the team with the worst record by default wins the lottery, giving them a nudge under a 50/50 chance of winning. The team with the next worst record as something over 23% of a chance. And so on down the line. A team from 7-14 can move up no more than one space.

And hell yes, the Pens can win the lottery. Any team could win it 20 years in a row if that was how it played out, but God help their fans. Those rule changes last year were a one time thing. It was a stupid change of the rules but I am not complaining about the outcome.

 

[McDonald19]

Who will draft 3 and 4th?

just going off the current standings...

1st pick St. Louis 30 points
2nd pick Pittsburgh 34 points
3rd pick Chicago 40 points
4th pick Washington 41 points
5th pick Columbus 42 points

That looks like the top 5, though the order will likely change, and someone may move up in the lottery. The next closest team is NY Isles with 47 points.

 

[J17 Vs Proclamation]

The penguins have sucked the past five years ok its a simple concept, any true hockey fan will tell you they would rather have there team in the playoffs and onto a stanley cup run than receive a top five pick. Ask the fans of Detroit, New Jersey, Colorado, and Tampa if they would trade their cups for a top five pick. A prospect is just a shot in the dark, but a cup banner hangs forever. (unless they relocate your team) Besides I would give up Crosby, Malkin and Fleury if it meant the Penguins were guaranteed to stay in Pittsburgh. trial organization.

I wasnt argueing that fact at all.

If you traded Malkin, Crosby and Fleury, you would be screwed

 

[Jaded-Fan]

just going off the current standings...

1st pick St. Louis 30 points
2nd pick Pittsburgh 34 points
3rd pick Chicago 40 points
4th pick Washington 41 points
5th pick Columbus 42 points

That looks like the top 5, though the order will likely change, and someone may move up in the lottery. The next closest team is NY Isles with 47 points.

There looks to be groupings in the standings in which there will be movement, but little movement from one group to the other with only around 30 games left for each as there is 5-6 points between each group. Does not sound like much, but at the bottom of the standings, especially for those in the bottom 6 group, how many teams go on huge tears at the end of the year? Maybe one may move from one group to another, two or three even of these teams will actually likely make the playoffs, but that is about it. So here is where your team is likely to pick:

Group 1: Picks 1-2
St' Louis
49 games played, 33 games remaining, 30 points
Penguins
52 Games Played, 30 games remaining, 34 points

Group 2: Picks 3-5
Chicago
51 games played, 31 games remaining, 40 points
Capitals
50 Games Played, 32 games remaining, 41 points
Columbus
52 games played, 30 games remaining, 42 points

Group 3: Picks 6-12
NYI
50 games played, 32 games remaining, 47 points
Florida
52 games played, 30 games remaining, 48 points
Boston
51 games played, 32 games remaining, 50 points
Sharks
48 games played, 34 games remaining, 52 points
Thrashers
52 games played, 30 games remaining, 52 points
Toronto
50 games played, 32 games remaining, 52 points
Canadians
49 games played, 33 games remaining, 52 points

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

from '01 to '03 the penguins slowly purged their entire lineup. they started completely from scratch in the '03-04 season and were pretty much an expansion team at that point. as this past offseason showed, it's damn near impossible to patch so many holes so quickly. hence the high picks. it's not too different from quebec of the late 80s, or ottawa, sanjose, and tampa from the 90s.