Doctor No
Registered User
No, a coin flip would be a tie game.
Yep, that's the situation he described precisely: "Your team is down a goal...[then] you score a goal."
No, a coin flip would be a tie game.
I see .... kindly review the following thread where ETOI is used for playoff performance. My contributions seem to be appreciated.
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2208643&highlight=black+gold+extractor
I wanted to do this once, gave up.
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2109413&highlight=
No, a coin flip would be a tie game. A one goal lead in the final minute is still a favourite.
Post 1960 when NCAA players turned pro or participated in the WC and Olympics for Canada and the USA, it was common for some of them to jump into the NHL team line-up as a top six forward or top 4 defenceman. Short list would include Ken Morrow - 1980, Chris Chelios and Pat Lafontaine - 1984, Craig Janney - 1988, Joe Juneau - 1992. TOI, RS vs PO would not reveal this. You have to fact check." for the playoffs, I assumed identical deployment as in the regular season unless there's an obvious switch"
translation, no extra information was used to estimate players' TOI in the playoffs, it was simply a repeat of regular season TOI. This can work as a reasonable guess. It stands to reason a team's #1-2-3-4-5-6 defensemen will still be the #1-2-3-4-5-6 in the playoffs, but that is far from a certainty.... as you mentioned with Awrey.
Yep, that's the situation he described precisely: "Your team is down a goal...[then] you score a goal."
But I believe we have the data available (going back quite a few years now) to quantify the "clutchness" or "importance" of every goal scored. I think the most important thing to consider is, what was the expected number of points your team would receive in the situation it was in prior to the goal, and what was the expected number of points following it?
For example: Your team is down a goal with 1:00 left in the 3rd. There's a 3% chance your team wins the game at this point. You score a goal. That makes it a coin flip from here. It's 50%. You just made your team's likelihood of a win rise by 47% with that goal.
Another example: It's midway through the 2nd and you're up 3-0. You're 98% likely to win this game. You score again. Your chances of winning just went up to 99.5. Your goal only made the likelihood of a win go up by 1.5%. It is not a very important goal.
Of course, that late tying goal could be rendered meaningless if the other team comes back and scores with 15 seconds remaining, but that doesn't change that the tying goal was very clutch. Similarly, the team down 4-0 could in fact come back to tie it, making that 4-0 goal very important, but that doesn't change that it was very unimportant when it was scored.
Hockey does not have such preferred roles for scorers. No clean-up or designated scorers. Likewise TOI is not a guarantee of scoring opportunity.
Time on power play?