World Cup: QF: Sweden vs. England, 7/7/2018

[Stray Wasp]

Some interesting statistics after the round of 16. All the top teams in the round of 16 by this metric advanced to the quarter finals.

Sweden has the best defence in the tourny, well known fact, but I keep telling you that Sweden is more dangerous than they look, they are also the third best getting past the opponents defence.

Now so far.
France beat Uruguay and Belgium beat Brazil, also predicted by this metric. Which makes this 10 for 10 so far in the playoffs.

Following this trend, Russia beats Croatia and Sweden takes care of England.

Food for thought.

Thanks for this, it is indeed interesting to compare against what has happened in reality. Surprising to see Iran so high up. Funny to see Germany so low down, but it's of a piece with the eye test.

 

[DDRhockey]

I'll be quiet when I feel like it, thank you.

 

[Stray Wasp]

I'd be amazed if this game didn't prove to be tight.

If England lose, the early kick off means there'll be a lot of drunk people with neck fat wearing ill-fitting clothes stomping around in a bad mood for the rest of us to dodge. Whereas Sweden is the land of Ingmar Bergman, so they should be pleased for any excuse to bunker down in a condition of existential misery.

I'm longing for Raheem Sterling to have a great game in the hope the racist bullies who've gone after him in the media for the last couple of years choke on their own vomit. Alas, I'm not optimistic it'll happen.

And should England go out I hope it's not in a way that badly undermines their amiable manager. An England team that I don't despise has been a pleasing novelty.

 

[Shrimper]

I'd be amazed if this game didn't prove to be tight.

If England lose, the early kick off means there'll be a lot of drunk people with neck fat wearing ill-fitting clothes stomping around in a bad mood for the rest of us to dodge. Whereas Sweden is the land of Ingmar Bergman, so they should be pleased for any excuse to bunker down in a condition of existential misery.

I'm longing for Raheem Sterling to have a great game in the hope the racist bullies who've gone after him in the media for the last couple of years choke on their own vomit. Alas, I'm not optimistic it'll happen.

And should England go out I hope it's not in a way that badly undermines their amiable manager. An England team that I don't despise has been a pleasing novelty.

Even if we weren't to progress today. Getting to a Quarter Final and having a team that is fun to watch makes this World Cup a success as far as I'm concerned. Get through and we're guaranteed another two games.

 

[Firsov99]

Let’s go Sweden!!

 

[Venkman]

No changes for England. Krafth in for Lustig and Larsson back in for Svensson.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

Weird that Dele is starting when he is clearly unfit.

 

[MrFunnyWobbl]

Happy I can watch both games today.

 

[Blender]

I'm expecting a close game here, could even go to extra time. I think England will pull through though.

 

[gary69]

Granqvist probably can't wait to get back home to see his wife and their newborn child. Must be mentally challenging game for him.

 

[Prntscrn]

I love how basically the entire country shutsdown when Sweden are playing a World Cup game, and I'm sure in countries like brazil for example are way crazier that way. It brings so much to the people.

No matter how this ends I'm so proud of what the boys have done

 

[KrejciMVP]

For England James?

 

[koyvoo]

Sweden-England

0-0 hoof ball

 

[Bon Esprit]

England will win this.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

An interesting approach. It does seem to be one of the few stats that take into account whether you can 'open up' another team and whether you can be opened up easily yourself.

I remember after Germany's defeats in the late 90s and early 00s, I theorized that our key problem was that while we passed the ball about a lot and seemed to dominate a lot of opponents, we lacked the technique and approach to get past defenders positioned in the areas just outside the penalty box. This seemed to be the key in creating dangerous moves. This metric almost seems like a realization of this thought.

It actually doesn't surprise me that Germany is last in this metric outside the minnows. If you look closely you see that Germany actually saw a lot of offensive success by this metric as it's tied 3rd for defenders bypassed. Which doesn't quite reflect the way it felt watching Germany, as it seemed we struggled to get passed the defensive cordons of the opposition. But perhaps it is indicative of the fact that even if Germany got past the first 5 opponents, they still had to get past 5 more to actually generate a high % chance.

However, it's Germany's vulnerability to counters that pushes them into the basement. A simple opening pass by the opposition would typically bypass much of the German team assembled around the opponents' box. And this happened many, many times.

 

[East Coast Bias]

Dele has been awful this tourney. Liability out there.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

This team will win.

 

[Halladay]

Pretty impressive Stones covered the most ground last match for England.

 

[Wee Baby Seamus]

That was a wicked run from Sterling

 

[Halladay]

Harry should have scored.

 

[Venkman]

Alli's been awful

 

[Jussi]

Is Streling the Gabriel Jesus of England in this game?

 

[Alklha]

There should be zero tolerance for linesmen flagging onside players offside. The directive was clear.

 

[Halladay]

Goal.

 

[Blender]

Perfect execution on that corner.