Injury Report: #2: Nolan Patrick Migraine Disorder (Sep. 26, '19); 1-year $874,125 qualifying offer (Oct. 16, '20)

MiamiScreamingEagles

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TheKingPin

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For Patrick you have to think he is at least concerned about his contract. I would think he would want to produce that much more in this situation and with limited time at best.
 
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Magua

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Morin got a cheap 3 year deal coming off a knee injury that would cause him to miss at least 1 season. He had not even close to established himself as an NHLer, with all of 3 games played. I don't even think I'd call that a "prove it" deal -- it was his actual value. Best case he might've cost himself a few hundred thousand in year 3.

Meanwhile, Nolan Patrick is an established NHL 3C. Migraine disorders are no joke, but it's not overly optimistic to think it can be manageable from here on out. It's unique and not comparable to an ACL tear. His floor is a 3C. His "prove it" deal would be moving forwards in his projections. I see no reason he locks himself into multiple cheap years. Unlike Morin, he banked an NHL salary on his ELC. I don't know what that 1 year cost would be......1.5 mil? But we could be talking millions lost by year 2, if he's healthy.
 

Rebels57

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Morin got a cheap 3 year deal coming off a knee injury that would cause him to miss at least 1 season. He had not even close to established himself as an NHLer, with all of 3 games played. I don't even think I'd call that a "prove it" deal -- it was his actual value. Best case he might've cost himself a few hundred thousand in year 3.

Meanwhile, Nolan Patrick is an established NHL 3C. Migraine disorders are no joke, but it's not overly optimistic to think it can be manageable from here on out. It's unique and not comparable to an ACL tear. His floor is a 3C. His "prove it" deal would be moving forwards in his projections. I see no reason he locks himself into multiple cheap years. Unlike Morin, he banked an NHL salary on his ELC. I don't know what that 1 year cost would be......1.5 mil? But we could be talking millions lost by year 2, if he's healthy.

With you on this. Nolan would be wise to take a 1 year deal because there's a good chance he can earn a nice raise next summer.
 
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dragonoffrost

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If I'm him take a two year deal and bank on cashing in at the new CBA with the projections being a large cap increase at that time.
 
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flyerslducks

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I'm assuming he will just sign a 1 year prove it deal and hope to get his big raise next summer.

i think he will do a sanheim like bridge deal. Might be smart for him to do a prove it deal but it could back fire like labanc.
 

Les Averman

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There is no way to put in performance bonuses/incentives to boost pay if he plays & performs, correct? I just don't see any way that he signs anything more than a 1-year deal around 1-1.5 mil where he needs to prove he can put together a full season.
 

LegionOfDoom91

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i think he will do a sanheim like bridge deal. Might be smart for him to do a prove it deal but it could back fire like labanc.

He’s not going to get a $3.5M AAV like Sanheim though. If he was than yeah that would be an absolute no brainer for him but he doesn’t have that stroke to command that at this point. We’re probably talking an AAV closer to $1M.

The situations aren’t really comparable between Patrick & Labanc. Labanc legitimately had bargaining power to demand more but willingly took a sizeable pay cut for the benefit to Doug Wilson. Patrick’s essentially entering this contract with no bargaining power as his stock is about as low as you can get.

There is reason to possibly bet on yourself from Patrick’s standpoint with a one year deal. Locking yourself into a small salary multi-year deal isn’t necessarily some no brainer unless you basically think your career is over & looking to collect as much money as possible now. Patrick was/is still collecting a full NHL pay check this year on top of the previous two seasons. So it’s not like a situation like Morin’s either.

It ultimately doesn’t really matter from the Flyers perspective at this point either way. They’re in the driver seat regardless if it’s a one or two year deal.
 

flyerslducks

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He’s not going to get a $3.5M AAV like Sanheim though. If he was than yeah that would be an absolute no brainer for him but he doesn’t have that stroke to command that at this point. We’re probably talking an AAV closer to $1M.

The situations aren’t really comparable between Patrick & Labanc. Labanc legitimately had bargaining power to demand more but willingly took a sizeable pay cut for the benefit to Doug Wilson. Patrick’s essentially entering this contract with no bargaining power as his stock is about as low as you can get.

There is reason to possibly bet on yourself from Patrick’s standpoint with a one year deal. Locking yourself into a small salary multi-year deal isn’t necessarily some no brainer unless you basically think your career is over & looking to collect as much money as possible now. Patrick was/is still collecting a full NHL pay check this year on top of the previous two seasons. So it’s not like a situation like Morin’s either.

It ultimately doesn’t really matter from the Flyers perspective at this point either way. They’re in the driver seat regardless if it’s a one or two year deal.

i said like it So defintely less but a bridge nonetheless. He will probably get around 2-3. I was comparing how labanc took a risk and it didn't pay off for him. He will get less than what he coudl've if he signed long term. With patricks injury history, he might want to go with security than a prove me deal.
 

LegionOfDoom91

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There is no way to put in performance bonuses/incentives to boost pay if he plays & performs, correct? I just don't see any way that he signs anything more than a 1-year deal around 1-1.5 mil where he needs to prove he can put together a full season.

Nah ELC & +35 contracts are the only ones that can be performance bonus laden.
 

deadhead

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I'd expect Patrick to sign a 2 year deal, it would be enough money to retire if the migraines can't be controlled, but not long enough term to preclude a big money deal if he breaks out.
 
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