Speculation: Provorov after Dumba and Trouba

[Beef Invictus]

The cap isn't going up that much in the future, where is the magical source of additional revenues?

Sports have maxed out revenues, with cable cutting ESPN can no longer keep raising rates - and thus bid up sports contracts, and once they stop throwing stupid money around the TV packages will flatten out, the luxury boxes have been built, cities don't want to subsidize new stadiums anymore.

Plus, current deals for other players factor in cap escalation expectations.

If Provorov was a UFA, he could probably garner a 8x8 deal, he's about the 20th best D-man in the league with upside, would he get more than Carlsson?
But four years are RFA, so you're talking $4-5M for a 4 year bridge deal, split the difference and you're talking $6-6.5M for 8 years.

We actually have every reason to suspect a cap contraction come the next lockout, which isn't that far off. We are halfway through the current CBA.

But that's far enough in the future that it should be fine

 

[Juicy Pop]

I think that Lindholm is a decent comparable as long as Provy doesn't have a Norris-caliber year.

I'll wager 6.5M x 6 years due to cap progression and consideration for better offensive output.

 

[kelmitchell]

The cap isn't going up that much in the future, where is the magical source of additional revenues?

Sports have maxed out revenues, with cable cutting ESPN can no longer keep raising rates - and thus bid up sports contracts, and once they stop throwing stupid money around the TV packages will flatten out, the luxury boxes have been built, cities don't want to subsidize new stadiums anymore.

Plus, current deals for other players factor in cap escalation expectations.

If Provorov was a UFA, he could probably garner a 8x8 deal, he's about the 20th best D-man in the league with upside, would he get more than Carlsson?
But four years are RFA, so you're talking $4-5M for a 4 year bridge deal, split the difference and you're talking $6-6.5M for 8 years.

Its a good thing hockey hasnt been shown on espn in many years then or this would be a dead sport

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

I think that Lindholm is a decent comparable as long as Provy doesn't have a Norris-caliber year.

I'll wager 6.5M x 6 years due to cap progression and consideration for better offensive output.

Lindholm on 5.2 is total steal by ducks. Although what good does it make when they blow 4 million on bieksa and saddle poor Lindholm with him.

I would totally go after trouba though and when the cap crunch comes trade him. Look no further than orielly. No matter how expensive good players can always be moved. Sometimes the could even land you subban lol.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Huge risk if you try to lowball Provy, if his agent think as much of him as most of us doing, they will be looking for around 7MM I believe. If you low ball him, he doesn't have to take it, he'll just keep taking them year by year betting on himself.

In my opinion, don't low ball, offer him a nice long fair salary to keep everybody happy, so what if it's about 1 to 1.5MM more than you might want. Provorov could be the best dman in the league in the coming years.

Don't f*** with it.

 

[1865]

8 x 7 and i'm happy with that. Any less and it's a steal.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Not sure how the brass will handle it but I'd go as high as 8x8. 6-7x8 would be the best case scenario. 5ishx2-3 is probably most likely.

 

[FLYguy3911]

There's almost 0% chance it's 3 years. And maybe 5% it's 2 years. I'd guess 6.

 

[Alchemy]

It all depends on what he does this season. If he puts up 50 or 60 points and is a anchor defensively then hes going to get paid so its wise to lock him up at 8mil a year instead of trying to be cute and we get to his UFA years hes worth 12+ mil.

 

[FLYguy3911]

If he puts up 60 points this year I'll gladly pay him whatever he wants.

 

[Striiker]

He’s not scoring that much without significant PP scoring.

 

[Qyburn]

Given that scoring goals is far, far from his best asset, while at the same time about as quantifiable and correlative to big $ as it gets, the #1 strategy should be to wait for as long as possible in the hopes that tied-for-1st-among-D will regress. It surely must, right? If not, he gets paid up the yin yang and so be it.

 

[mdm815]

I imagine an extension would take some time around late season to next offseason. Both sides have sound reason to let it play out a little longer.
In my opinion you want to lock him up for 8 years. All of the cap space Hextall is creating is for players exactly like him. 8x8 would be worst case scenario but still totally doable. I think it really depends on his year tho. If he’s still in top 5 categories for at least some offensive stats again, i think you hope for 7x8. If he stays around 35-40 pts i think you can get him down around 6-6.5x8.

 

[Random Forest]

You guys are reckless. We should give him a bridge deal until he proves himself beyond any doubt. Use PK Subban's bridge deal as a guide. That one worked out really well. $2.75M for two years tops.

 

[Appleyard]

I would guess if he has a better year than last he could command ~$7-7.5m.

I keep penciling him in at 7.5m and Konecny at 5m in terms of the re-signing... assuming longer deals instead of bridge.

 

[orangecrush8]

You guys are reckless. We should give him a bridge deal until he proves himself beyond any doubt. Use PK Subban's bridge deal as a guide. That one worked out really well. $2.75M for two years tops.

Using PK is probably the worst example someone could have come up with.

They signed him to a 2 year bridge deal, and what did that turn into? 10 million per year.

Now that’s reckless.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

He’s getting no less than 7M & probably 8M per.

 

[Magua]

Using PK is probably the worst example someone could have come up with.

They signed him to a 2 year bridge deal, and what did that turn into? 10 million per year.

Now that’s reckless.

He's being sarcastic. I don't know what his point is given no one has mentioned anything less than 6-8 year term and less than $6-6.5 mil, term depending. I think there's a difference between trying to get the fairest, best deal and offering him a blank check. I also will take the bet he doesn't win a Norris or even finish as a finalist during his next contract.