Speculation: Provorov after Dumba and Trouba

[Sawdalite]

Dumba, 7th Overall Pick was signed to a 5 Yr Contract $6M AAV

D-man Shoots R... 6'0"... 183 lbs

Age 23... 5 NHL Seasons

310-GP 44-G 84-A 128-P 163-PIM

__________________________________

Trouble, 9th Overall Pick was awarded a one Season $5.5M Arbitrated Contract... asked for $7M

D-man Shoots R... 6'-3"... 203lbs

Age 24... 5 NHL Seasons

326-GP 34-G 95-A 129-P 239-PIM

____________________________________

Provorov, 7th Overall Pick

D-man Shots L... 6'-1"...201lbs

Age 21... 2 NHL Seasons

164-GP 23-G 48-A 71-P 54-PIM

===============================

Above we have three very talented young defensemen... one recently signed to a 5 Year Contract... one awarded a one Year Contract thrpugh arbitration... and the last approaching a new Contract.

Please note the Stats on the three.

Question: With the current demanded and given Contract Scale... and taking into consideration the sure to be rising Salaries over the next Season or so... What do the Flyers do with Provorov?... Quickly sign him to a long-term $6M Range Extension?... Shorter and Lower Bridge Contract?... Bide their time and wait to see his progression and NHL Climate over the next Season and then address it?... Other Options?... What is he worth and what will he demand/accept?... Hardball to be played, or circumvent all possible problems and just backup the Brinks Truck?... Maybe try for Bargain of the Century and start playing the old Mind Games?

Thoughts?

Click to read more...

 

[FLYguy3911]

8x8

 

[Sawdalite]

Oh, Momma... you are easy. Haha

So you think max-term at $8M right off the bat... more than Dumba... and even what Trouba was asking... with less track record?

When does Hexy offer it... and what is Provo's response?


... I don't disagree honestly... but I fear the trend we're seeing in the NHL, and the monster numbers on the upper talent... and the bind if they bust or get injured in a manner where they can't keep the pace... but that is another story, I suppose.

... Dumba/Trouba got the big bucks so quickly... Provo looks to be on the brink of raising the bar at an earlier age.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Cut to the chase & just offer him Doughty’s contact. 11x8.

 

[Sawdalite]

Cut to the chase & just offer him Doughty’s contact. 11x8.

Setting sarcasm aside... I started this with Dumba/Trouba recent Contracts as a guide... I fully understand Provo's worth to the Flyers and his potential... plus the importance of such a #1 D-man in the NHL.

While I don't want to lose him, I also don't want to overpay and lose RFA advantages... but I also don't want escalating NHL Salaries to all of a sudden raise his following Contract to $11-$13-$15M or so either. While I agree $8M is over the top... it sure wpuld be better than a soaring $13M per for 8 in a few years.

I come back to the two recent Contracts for arguably his peers... isn't $5.5M-$6M reasonsble? Dumba was for 5 years after all... wouldn't that be fair for Hexy to offer as soon as allowable before it is considered a low number?

... There would be money for him to make down the line in his next Contract albeit as a FA... and Bridge Contract could address that for the Flyers while keeping Control... but looking at an escalated number down the road.

 

[Tripod]

Dumba was for 5 years after all... wouldn't that be fair for Hexy to offer as soon as allowable before it is considered a low number?

He can offer that right now.

 

[Sawdalite]

He can offer that right now.

Thanks... I wasn't sure on that.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Just try to get 8 years around 7MM, then we dont have to worry about it till he's 30

 

[briererocks]

Just try to get 8 years around 7MM, then we dont have to worry about it till he's 30

He should get 5.5m over 8 years . Sumba was bridged and only then got 6. Trouba was bridged and then got 5.5. 8 years 5.5m for provorov is fair.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Five years isn’t a bridge...

 

[Tripod]

Five years isn’t a bridge...

I assume he means Dumbas 2nd contract for 2 years.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I assume he means Dumbas 2nd contract for 2 years.

Dumba’s first year where he only played 14 games burned an ELC year but it didn’t count as a service year towards UFA. So three of those five years on this new contract are RFA years. The last two are a UFA years.

Provorov is going to have four RFA years after his ELC expires. So he’s not going to be locking himself up for eight years making under $6M. Honestly I doubt he signs an eight year deal regardless as outside of Ekblad no either young defensemen has signed that long to this point. I think a $6-6.5M AAV for 6-7 years is probably the long term range of a deal.

 

[Tripod]

Dumba’s first year where he only played 14 games burned an ELC year but it didn’t count as a service year towards UFA. So three of those five years on this new contract are RFA years. The last two are a UFA years.

Provorov is going to have four RFA years after his ELC expires. So he’s not going to be locking himself up for eight years making under $6M. Honestly I doubt he signs an eight year deal regardless as outside of Ekblad no either young defensemen has signed that long to this point. I think a $6-6.5M AAV for 6-7 years is probably the long term range of a deal.

I have him pegged in that same range.

 

[Flukeshot]

I guess the best question is, what would he Ben worth on a 1 yr extension? Does anyone think he wouldn't already get $6.5M for just the one year?

Tied for 1st in goals for D, 27th for points, 20th for ATOI.

So to that point I think the discount long term deal is 7m x 8 years. If the cap keeps going up and he's even the same player he is today half way through that deal, it looks like a bargain.

I could see the initial ask being closer to $8.5m

A 50pt season could happen this year. Maybe even 20 goals. At that point the conversation begins a time $8m minimum.

 

[Flyers Faithful]

I think something like 8x6.25 would be ideal. 8x5.5 is too low I don’t think he’d agree to it.

 

[briererocks]

I think something like 8x6.25 would be ideal. 8x5.5 is too low I don’t think he’d agree to it.

Linsholm ended up signing for something around 5.25 . I think 8x6.25 is very fair .

 

[bear3330]

Needs to be locked down for at least 6 years. I'd do 8 x 8-8.5mil but I'd be surprised if he is willing to go to 8 years.

Bridge deal would be asking for trouble. In a few years 8-8.5 will look like a steal.

Also, I don't think comparing to Trouba or Dumba makes sense. Neither of them are the number 1 D on their respective teams. Provy is while also being considerably younger. While their stats/experience are arguably similar, they don't have the same amount of leverage as Provorov.

 

[TheKingPin]

Anything under 7 is a massive steal. Anything over 6 years is great.

 

[captainpaxil]

Between youth and role i think hextall negotiates something like 7x7.

 

[Sawdalite]

Needs to be locked down for at least 6 years. I'd do 8 x 8-8.5mil but I'd be surprised if he is willing to go to 8 years.

Bridge deal would be asking for trouble. In a few years 8-8.5 will look like a steal.

Also, I don't think comparing to Trouba or Dumba makes sense. Neither of them are the number 1 D on their respective teams. Provy is while also being considerably younger. While their stats/experience are arguably similar, they don't have the same amount of leverage as Provorov.

True... the Flyers don't have another #1... and, also true, he is our #1.

He is only 2 years younger than Dumba and 3 than Trouba... but the Flyers have longer Control of his Contract presently.

He is less established but more needed... offsets... As I see it, the key point that the Flyers have is Time of Contol... that could play to Hexy's advantage in that Time and Flexibility is theirs.

Do they want Bridge Contract which gives them more assurance but is playing against Escalation and delays the inevitable... or do they want to bet on his being the real deal and go for lengthy Control (8yrs on top of the Current) and more Cost Certainty... or something in between?

I compare him with those two not only because of the similarity in Stats... but as a guide to the Current Market... and possibly a starting point, if Hexy were to choose to get the ball rolling.

 

[Beef Invictus]

I'm thinking he's in the 5.5-6.5 range.

 

[deadhead]

The cap isn't going up that much in the future, where is the magical source of additional revenues?

Sports have maxed out revenues, with cable cutting ESPN can no longer keep raising rates - and thus bid up sports contracts, and once they stop throwing stupid money around the TV packages will flatten out, the luxury boxes have been built, cities don't want to subsidize new stadiums anymore.

Plus, current deals for other players factor in cap escalation expectations.

If Provorov was a UFA, he could probably garner a 8x8 deal, he's about the 20th best D-man in the league with upside, would he get more than Carlsson?
But four years are RFA, so you're talking $4-5M for a 4 year bridge deal, split the difference and you're talking $6-6.5M for 8 years.

 

[dats81]

Provorov appears to be super competitive and goal oriented... as in the goal is to win a Stanley cup and getting an Allstar invitation.
As long as he is feeling it with the team and given every chance to remain the #1D, he will agree to a reasonable extension. I expect a cap hit in the lower 6s at max term.

 

[Sawdalite]

The cap isn't going up that much in the future, where is the magical source of additional revenues?

Sports have maxed out revenues, with cable cutting ESPN can no longer keep raising rates - and thus bid up sports contracts, and once they stop throwing stupid money around the TV packages will flatten out, the luxury boxes have been built, cities don't want to subsidize new stadiums anymore.

Plus, current deals for other players factor in cap escalation expectations.

If Provorov was a UFA, he could probably garner a 8x8 deal, he's about the 20th best D-man in the league with upside, would he get more than Carlsson?
But four years are RFA, so you're talking $4-5M for a 4 year bridge deal, split the difference and you're talking $6-6.5M for 8 years.

I hear you, but the escalation on high talent is not entirely based on incoming Revenue and increased Cap.

With Teams dead set on obtaining and/or keeping targeted Players, type of Players and Positions... in an effort to one-up the Competition... Organizations will steal from Peter to obtain/pay Paul.

The haves of ProSports will have more... the others will have to fight for what's left.

While I can see the reasoning behind the $6.5M for 8yrs... I can still see the Flyers and Provo and his Agent keeping an eye on the Future going rates when addressing his Contract.

If he is to be the future of the franchise on the backend for years to come... they will make it so... at all costs... damn the 3rd Pair/Bottom 6.

On the other hand... it is Hextall we're talking about... so who really knows?

JMO

 

[deadhead]

Future rates are already built into comparables, and are discounted because they're future rates, that is, the player doesn't know if he'll stay healthy and improve and be able to garner that payment in free agency.
Karlsson is looking one year ahead, Provorov is looking five years ahead, far greater risk.