- Dec 12, 2017
- 22,520
- 9,922
Blue Jays Discussion: Prospects getting the call! Jansen, Reid-Foley up to the show
- Thread starter The Nemesis
- Start date
- Status
Diamond Joe Quimby
A$AP Joffrey
Major League Leaderboards » 2018 » Batters » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball
You may be being a bit conservative, or at the very least, be suffering from a slight recency bias. Which is interested considering the bolded regarding Solarte.
Major League Leaderboards » 2018 » Pitchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball
Basically this, yeah. It's certainly possible that I'm putting a bit too much weight on the current season, but to view him as a 1+ fWAR player for next year then you would have to pretty much completely ignore the current season.
Coming into this season, I liked the Solarte acquisition because I saw him as something like a ~1 fWAR player (based on his 2017) with the upside to be closer to a ~2 fWAR player (the potential for a bounceback to closer to his 2016 level and the two years before that). I'm evaluating him the same way now - I don't think he's a sub-replacement player going forward, but I think that's a very real possibility (based on his 2018) and he's most likely something between 0 and 0.5.
As DJQ points out, he's been worth about 0.3 fWAR per 600 PA over the last two years (with most of the value being accumulated closer to the start of the sample). I don't see why it's unreasonable to expect something like that going forward or to prefer the younger, cheaper in-house options to open the season (Travis, Drury, Diaz, Gurriel) and to fill the spots for a couple weeks until the phenom comes up (Guerrero) while a bunch of similar players are waiting at the highest level of the minors (Bichette, Biggio, Urena) with a couple wild cards around (Martin in an emergency, Tulo if he's still alive).
Anyway, here's a far more interesting topic of discussion: Adam Kloffenstein is about to debut in the GCL.
justafan22
Registered User
- Jun 22, 2014
- 11,629
- 6,249
Assuming Granderson is dealt in the next 11 days, what's the return going to be for him? A c level prospect?
BlueForever75
Registered User
- Oct 4, 2017
- 5,691
- 2,303
Player to be named later which translates into a low A ball player with some possible upside but with flaws.
justafan22
Registered User
- Jun 22, 2014
- 11,629
- 6,249
I guess. I wouldn't even deal donaldson, regardless if he plays rehab games + a few MLB games. Rather take the pick from a QO then deal him for a double A lottery ticket
BlueForever75
Registered User
- Oct 4, 2017
- 5,691
- 2,303
I think for Donaldson you could probably extract 2 wildcard prospects rather then just on if signed for free in the off season. Depending on the type of prospects you may want to deal Donaldson if he has any worth. But it depends on the players/prospects coming back and if they project to be better then the one if QO isn't accepted.
If Granderson gets traded, I would be shocked if it's for anything other than "player to be named later or cash considerations".
justafan22
Registered User
- Jun 22, 2014
- 11,629
- 6,249
Yeah. I don't think any contender is giving up decent assets for 5+ weeks of donaldson considering he's been out ~3 months and his april/may wasn't that impressive.
Suntouchable13
Registered User
The problem is that your supposed 2 top of rotation starters can't stay healthy, especially Sanchez. And stroman the guy could be a head case. That's the problem.
IceColdBear
Registered User
- Apr 5, 2016
- 551
- 641
With guys like Groshans & Pardinho looking good in the lower levels, there's some hope we can start bringing up young talent in waves beyond Vlad, Bo, Biggio, and the guys getting looks right now.
That's what we need, I love our organizational depth.
Did fairly well in one inning no hits one walk and two SO.
Pearson likely starts down there soon.
ChuckWoods
Registered User
- Sep 13, 2009
- 5,333
- 1,616
Players To Be Named Later in recent memory:
David Ortiz
Gio Gonzales
Coco Crisp
Michael Brantley
Thats to name a few, so I would gladly deal Granderson for a PTBNL.
Eyedea
The Legend Continues
phillipmike
Registered User
- Oct 27, 2009
- 12,512
- 8,324
In itself it shows value. There is something to be said about playing a bench player or platoon player as a starter. They get exposed and the stat line deteriorates - we saw it with guys like Goins and Barney and something we wanted to avoid but injuries piled up. Up until he was put on the DL Solarte played 111 games out of 116 putting him on pace for 155 games played and 650+ PAs something he has never done before with the exception of 1 season where he hit 152 games but only 571 PAs.
He was pretty much a career NL platoon player coming to the hardest division in the AL East to be a platoon/bench player. Other guys got hurt forcing him into a starting position where he got exposed. Im not going to look to much into his last 4 months because he was put in an unfair position similar to Goins and Barney. They were overused outside of their control.
If he was a 0.9 WAR like he was last season there is value 5.5M. If he is 0.6 WAR there is value at 5.5M. Now if he is truly viewed as a 0-0.5 WAR player then yes there is little to no value to be had and picking up the 5.5M option makes no sense. But it is how you evaluate and value his 2019 contributions and i see him be more than a 0.5 WAR player if used properly.
If all goes well he isnt giving you anything close to 600 PAs and its closer to platoon or bench numbers and he is able to have the expected positive contributors. If he works out then great you have a trade chip, if he doesnt work out then you cut him loose as he is on a 1 year deal and if he works out or doesnt and there is a better kid than him then you have options to move a utility player at the deadline.
I have interest in his depth, versatility, short term deal and my 2019 evaluation of his projected WAR.
phillipmike
Registered User
- Oct 27, 2009
- 12,512
- 8,324
I like to temper my expectations on rookies in their year 1-2. A 1-2 WAR projection is conservative but i gladly take that from my 4th or 5th starter for under a 1M. I hope and know he has the potential to be much more but i like a 2 WAR projection at the most for the next 2 seasons - i think that is a realistic expectation.
ChuckWoods
Registered User
- Sep 13, 2009
- 5,333
- 1,616
GoonieFace
Registered User
This surprises me that SRF gets sent down.[/QUOTE]
I'm not, he was in over his head. Throw him back to AAA and get some confidence back. Call him back up in September.
I'm not, he was in over his head. Throw him back to AAA and get some confidence back. Call him back up in September.
I'm not, he was in over his head. Throw him back to AAA and get some confidence back. Call him back up in September.[/QUOTE]
They have three starters now, Borucki, Estrada and Gavilligo. Sanchez might get activated though.
So Stroman on the DL, sent down SRF.....those bullpen arms are going to work hard. Struggling Estrada-Borucki-Pannone-Gaviglio is our rotation for now
Pannone pitched yesterday too. Doubt he will pitch much on Wednesday if he starts. I believe they activate Sanchez.
Nah, he hasn't really played any more than he did in any of the previous three seasons. He played almost every day in 2015 (152 games) and then played every day in 2016 and 2017 minus a 4-6 week stretch each where he was hurt. So... pretty much the exact same as this year.
Trouble in the AL East? Sure, fair enough, though that's not going to change if he's on the team next year.
But it's hard to argue it's a problem with being overused/overexposed since his usage has been pretty much the same as it was the rest of his career.
- Status
Ad
Upcoming events
-
-
-
-
-
Series Winner Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple LeafsWagers: 6Staked: $2,110.00Event closes
- Updated: