Prospect Info: Prospect stat predictions

[Vatican Roulette]

Lets hear em'

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[newfy]

Top 15 from the polls we did


1.) Calle Järnkrok - I would expect at least 60 points in a full AHL season

2.) Petr Mrázek - 923 save percentage and a lot of wins

3.) Tomas Jurco - I think after the end to his season, anything less then 50 points is a disappointment big time

4.) Ryan Sproul - 37 points

5.) Xavier Ouellet - 28 points, lots of SH time

6.) Anthony Mantha - could push 60 goals?

7.) Riley Sheahan - should push 50

8.) Martin Frk - tough one. Ill be optimistic and say hes scores 23 goals

9.) Mattias Bäckman - 30ish points mostly assists

10.) Landon Ferraro - 30 and 30 for 60 points

11.) Teemu Pulkkinen - 40 points

12.) Alexei Marchenko - no clue

13.) Nick Jensen - mid 30s

14.) Andreas Athanasiou - could be around 90 points

15.) Adam Almqvist - stays around the same because a lot of ice on the PP is taken by Sproul Ouellet and Jensen

 

[Vatican Roulette]

Top 15 from the polls we did


1.) Calle Järnkrok - I would expect at least 60 points in a full AHL season

2.) Petr Mrázek - 923 save percentage and a lot of wins

3.) Tomas Jurco - I think after the end to his season, anything less then 50 points is a disappointment big time

4.) Ryan Sproul - 37 points

5.) Xavier Ouellet - 28 points, lots of SH time

6.) Anthony Mantha - could push 60 goals?

7.) Riley Sheahan - should push 50

8.) Martin Frk - tough one. Ill be optimistic and say hes scores 23 goals

9.) Mattias Bäckman - 30ish points mostly assists

10.) Landon Ferraro - 30 and 30 for 60 points

11.) Teemu Pulkkinen - 40 points

12.) Alexei Marchenko - no clue

13.) Nick Jensen - mid 30s

14.) Andreas Athanasiou - could be around 90 points

15.) Adam Almqvist - stays around the same because a lot of ice on the PP is taken by Sproul Ouellet and Jensen

I'll piggyback this list:

Jarnkrok: 60 points
Mrazek: 40 wins
Jurco: 70 plus
Sproul: 25 points
Ouellett: 25 points
Mantha: 40 goals, better compete in all zones.
Sheahan: 50 plus, more around 60.
Frk: 30 goals, 12 assists.
Backman: around 30 is good
Ferraro for 60 is good
Pullkinen for around 60
Marchenko for 15
Jensen for 40
AA for around 100.
Almquist gets traded, so, probably around 40.

 

[Frk It]

Top 15 from the polls we did

10.) Landon Ferraro - 30 and 30 for 60 points

I like Ferraro a lot as a player, I think he has a fantastic wrist shot, and a great release on his shot....

But 30 goals is a lot don't ya think?

That's more than Tatar or Nyquist ever scored. Might be the most goal any Griffin has scored since what, Hudler in 06'?

 

[ricky0034]

I like Ferraro a lot as a player, I think he has a fantastic wrist shot, and a great release on his shot....

But 30 goals is a lot don't ya think?

That's more than Tatar or Nyquist ever scored. Might be the most goal any Griffin has scored since what, Hudler in 06'?

he just had 24 last year

 

[newfy]

I like Ferraro a lot as a player, I think he has a fantastic wrist shot, and a great release on his shot....

But 30 goals is a lot don't ya think?

That's more than Tatar or Nyquist ever scored. Might be the most goal any Griffin has scored since what, Hudler in 06'?

Meh, I think a lot of people here havent caught on to how much Ferraro has turned himself around and cant get the bust idea from junior out of their heads.

He scored 24 last year, and that was in a league that was extremely stacked for half the season. With a year older, bigger role with certain players gone and a league with less talent I dont think a 6 goal increase is that big of a deal at all.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

The Griffins are going to put up huge numbers, they have a ton of firepower. The hard part for them will be staying interested at times, which is an important part of development.

I don't think Mantha is going to score as many goals, he is going to miss a chunk of time this year with the Canadian WJC effort in all likelihood.

I think little Bert and Nasty score more this year, most guys do after their draft year.

If Hall is back for an overage season Athanasiou should have some stellar numbers, he too could be on team Canada.

Would be awesome if three Wings prospects make that team. Paterson seems to be a lock Mantha has an outstanding chance and Athanasiou really has the opportunity as a primary offensive guy in Barrie to make a big case for inclusion.

The young AHL D-man are harder to call, they have some interesting time share probabilities until that plays out very hard to pin down who is doing what.

Have a feeling the ECHL (Toledo) team and AHL team will be near the top of that standings all year long, they are loaded with talent.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I like Ferraro a lot as a player, I think he has a fantastic wrist shot, and a great release on his shot....

But 30 goals is a lot don't ya think?

That's more than Tatar or Nyquist ever scored. Might be the most goal any Griffin has scored since what, Hudler in 06'?

He did lead the team in goals last year, now he played more games, but still I don't think 30 is an absurd stretch. He has really turned his career around, much closer to the draft night guy than people think. He picks that top corner and will log huge ice time, the thing that actually might stop this number is he will be among the first callups more than likely.

 

[joe89]

AHL:
Jarnkrok 58 points, 2:1 ratio assists to goals.
Jurco 55 3:2
Ferraro 52 1:1
Pulkkinen 46 3:2
Glendening 44 1:1
Sheahan 41 2:1
Frk 34 1:1

Almqvist 37 3:1
Sproul 31 2:1
Jensen 23 2:1
Ouellet 21 3:1
Marchenko 14 1:1 (Limited # of games)

Remember Paetsch is there and he'll play, put up 30-ish points.

 

[Frk It]

Meh, I think a lot of people here havent caught on to how much Ferraro has turned himself around and cant get the bust idea from junior out of their heads.

He scored 24 last year, and that was in a league that was extremely stacked for half the season. With a year older, bigger role with certain players gone and a league with less talent I dont think a 6 goal increase is that big of a deal at all.

To be perfectly honest, I didn't even realize that he scored 24 last year. 30 seems like a possibility. Sorry for posting before looking at all the facts.

 

[sarcastro]

I think the Griffs are going to struggle a bit this coming season. They're losing a huge chunk of the veterans and higher-end players from last year and the new crop is mostly rookies. There will be some pretty serious growing pains IMO, starting on defense. Look at the names missing off that Calder Cup roster - Tatar, Nyquist, Andersson, Dekeyser, Billins. That's serious stuff.

1.) Calle Järnkrok - 14g 33a 47p
2.) Petr Mrázek - high save % and high GAA from lots of rookie mistakes in front of him. .929% 2.91 3SO 32W
3.) Tomas Jurco - I really hope he breaks out. 28g 35a 63p
4.) Ryan Sproul - he'll cash in a bunch on the PP but could struggle defensively at first. 17g 16a 33p
5.) Xavier Ouellet - 3g 18a 21p
6.) Anthony Mantha - scores fewer goals and more assists as he focuses on rounding out his game. 38g 55a 93p - in the Q, of course.
7.) Riley Sheahan - 15g 28a 43p
8.) Martin Frk - Jurco-esque year for Frk as he adjusts to the pros as a 20 year old. 9g 11a 20p
9.) Mattias Bäckman - 2g 26a 28p
10.) Landon Ferraro - 22g 28a 50p
11.) Teemu Pulkkinen - 7g 4a 11p, bottom 6 and frequent healthy scratch as he struggles with the pace. (He's ranked way too high on this list, FYI...)
12.) Alexei Marchenko - not much offense as the coaches try to get him to focus on his D. 1g 7a 8p
13.) Nick Jensen - because of the shoulder, he misses time early, starts off behind the 8 ball and doesn't catch up. Spot 3rd pair duty and even a stint in Toledo for more ice time. 0g 6a 6p
14.) Andreas Athanasiou - 33g 41a 74p
15.) Adam Almqvist - loses a lot of playing time to Sproul and Ouellet and ends up with 25 points.

 

[newfy]

To be perfectly honest, I didn't even realize that he scored 24 last year. 30 seems like a possibility. Sorry for posting before looking at all the facts.

Yeah like I said I dont think a lot of people realize how much hes been scoring or how great he is on the PK. Might be homerish to say but he might be the best PKing prospect out there in the league. Almost 10 of his points this year came short handed

 

[Frk It]

Yeah like I said I dont think a lot of people realize how much hes been scoring or how great he is on the PK. Might be homerish to say but he might be the best PKing prospect out there in the league. Almost 10 of his points this year came short handed

I was aware that he was awesome on the PK, but I did not realize he led the team in goals with 24. That one was right over my head.

He is fast, with a nice shot, and can elevate the puck in a hurry. That along with his PK abilities gives him an awesome tool-box for a bottom 6er.

 

[WesNichols14]

I think the Griffs are going to struggle a bit this coming season. They're losing a huge chunk of the veterans and higher-end players from last year and the new crop is mostly rookies. There will be some pretty serious growing pains IMO, starting on defense. Look at the names missing off that Calder Cup roster - Tatar, Nyquist, Andersson, Dekeyser, Billins. That's serious stuff.

1.) Calle Järnkrok - 14g 33a 47p
2.) Petr Mrázek - high save % and high GAA from lots of rookie mistakes in front of him. .929% 2.91 3SO 32W
3.) Tomas Jurco - I really hope he breaks out. 28g 35a 63p
4.) Ryan Sproul - he'll cash in a bunch on the PP but could struggle defensively at first. 17g 16a 33p
5.) Xavier Ouellet - 3g 18a 21p
6.) Anthony Mantha - scores fewer goals and more assists as he focuses on rounding out his game. 38g 55a 93p - in the Q, of course.
7.) Riley Sheahan - 15g 28a 43p
8.) Martin Frk - Jurco-esque year for Frk as he adjusts to the pros as a 20 year old. 9g 11a 20p
9.) Mattias Bäckman - 2g 26a 28p
10.) Landon Ferraro - 22g 28a 50p
11.) Teemu Pulkkinen - 7g 4a 11p, bottom 6 and frequent healthy scratch as he struggles with the pace. (He's ranked way too high on this list, FYI...)
12.) Alexei Marchenko - not much offense as the coaches try to get him to focus on his D. 1g 7a 8p
13.) Nick Jensen - because of the shoulder, he misses time early, starts off behind the 8 ball and doesn't catch up. Spot 3rd pair duty and even a stint in Toledo for more ice time. 0g 6a 6p
14.) Andreas Athanasiou - 33g 41a 74p
15.) Adam Almqvist - loses a lot of playing time to Sproul and Ouellet and ends up with 25 points.

Billins was a rookie this last year and did great, I know he came from college but so does Jensen and he has had better numbers all of his years in college, is larger, faster and all around better gifts than Billins. Dekeyser only played a few game with the Griffins and wasn't even that great in his stint there. so I don't really count him as a loss for the team.

and Pulkkinen had 5 points in 14 playoff games last year (3G,2A) and 6 points adding in the two regular season games he played before that. so you are saying with roughly 60 more games and another off season to prepare for the season he will only put up 5 more points. not to mention he was a lot better than most expected he had no issue with the NA game, he threw hits took hits well, blocked shots and kept up without real issue, his speed didn't hurt his game and his height had zero effect on his game since he's built like a brick. I think he could push 40 maybe even 50 pts if he gets 2nd unit PP time 20ish being goals since the guy has a good hockey IQ and is more of a playmaker with a good shot than a sniper. the line of Pulks, Ferraro, and Jurco was gangbusters in the 7-8 games I watched intently.

 

[WesNichols14]

1.) Calle Järnkrok - 15-20 goals 25-40 assist 45-65 points.

2.) Petr Mrázek - .924 sv% 2.2 GAA if defense gels well 2.6 if they don't and 30-45 Wins

3.) Tomas Jurco - after watching the end of the season and the playoffs I know this could sound crazy but anywhere from 50-80 points and 25-40 goals it all depends on the start and his linemates Pulks, Ferraro, and him gelled really well. if he starts hot I could see him keep it going all year

4.) Ryan Sproul - 29 pts 14 goals

5.) Xavier Ouellet - 32 points, 7 goals, 8 assist on Sproul goals on d-d one timers. lots of SH time push's 19-24 a night by mid season

6.) Anthony Mantha - 60 goals maybe if no WJC. several things to think about he could look at consistency as offensively or playing all 3 zones more consistent both good things but if he worries to much about D his offense will drop but he will be a much better overall player and likely make Detroit sooner. if he worries about D I think he could have 80ish pts 30-40 goals if he plays in the WJC cut 15-20% out of his overall offensive numbers.

7.) Riley Sheahan - 40- 50 pts the guy had a great rookie year especially for a guy who wasn't really expected to produce. he might surprise even more and put up around 25 goals, as long as he stays consistent on D and improves on faceoffs I will be very happy and excited to see him in Detroit the following year

8.) Martin Frk - ummmm... really this is a half guess since I expected a lot of Jurco last year and he was not what I expected to start. I'll say 30-40 points 45 if he gets pp time 14-22 goals...? plays on the 3rd line and really pisses off the other team fights 6 times. as long as he doesn't take an insane amount of dumb penalties i'm good, he did improve towards the end the year.

9.) Mattias Bäckman - 35-40ish 5 goals, top 5 in defense scoring.


10.) Landon Ferraro - 28-32 goals 50-65 points

11.) Teemu Pulkkinen - 40-50 points plays solid two way game, 20 goals starts on 3rd line ends up in the top 6 plays 2nd unit pp and pk he looked better than Calle in their individual stints last year. I hope Jeff Blashill puts him with Ferraro and Jurco again but I think Jurco will end up with Jarnkrok and Sheahan will be with them.

12.) Alexei Marchenko - guys played in the 2nd best league in the world, so at least 10 pts idk really know is he an offensive D or defensive?

13.) Nick Jensen - Billins came in and had great numbers coming from a similar situation except the D wasn't as stacked, so similar numbers in the 30 range I think he could end up being on the top pairing with Almquist early in the season.

14.) Andreas Athanasiou - 75-100 points 40-45 goals with his speed and hands he could light it up this year that's saying he doesn't make the WJC squad which I think he has a chance to do. especially if he's putting up the kind of numbers I spoke of.

15.) Adam Almqvist - 35 pts basically stays the same but has 11-14 goals this year. he improves on the quiet things that will make him fall in the prospect rankings but make him a much better player and get a call up the following year or late this year.

others I think deserve mentioning

16. Marek Tvrdon the big question with him is, is he going back to the WHL or is he going to be a Griffin since from everything I've heard its going to be one or the other. (sorry Toledo) if he returns to the giant I would expect him to play the same way as last year with the same pace (assuming the blood clot in his arm doesn't stop him from working out in cardio and other parts of his game and that he has been practicing like normal for the last few months) which would put him at around 88 points and 40 goals. so maybe 70 points 30ish goals if he has the understandable slow start.
now if he makes grand rapids in camp I would assume he's ready to go for the most part and should put up around 45 points, 20ish goals. his size and skill are high quality power forward all the way. even if he gets no pp time he should pot some sick goals and a healthy load of dirty ones.

skipping Janmark nylen because I have no effen clue

17. Jake Paterson - 25 wins, .916 sv% 2.9 GAA. idk much about his team except it was a run and gun style with very little defensive skill I'm going with the assumption it doesn't improve just so I don't look foolish for presuming otherwise.
starts for Canada and does just under great steals one game and doesn't lose his spot. but were not going to see Mrazek 2.0 here

18. Mitch Callahan - 20-30 points, improves overall game and keeps being the superpest he is.

19. Luke Glendening - 40 points 15 goals lots and lots of PK time

20. Louis-Marc Aubry - have a bad feeling this might be the season he becomes a bust. 15 points 5 goals healthy scratch contestant. I love his size but his points went down last year and I just do see him improving offensively much. I hope I'm wrong hell if Ferraro can turn it around maybe there's hope. but then again Marc Aubry never really did much in the Q either except be big enough to take a shot on with a 3rd round pick.

 

[PigPen]

Jarnkrok: 60 points (would be more but he'll get called up.)
Mrazek: 35ish wins
Jurco: 60 points with flashes of inconsistency. (Has the talent to lead AHL in scoring, for sure)
Sproul: 45 points (he ends up a minus but displays top pairing potential)
Ouellett: 25 points (he ends up a +15 or higher)
Mantha: 45 goals, 60 assists (more teams zero in on him, allows him to dish to teammates more)
Sheahan: 40ish. Still not sold on him. Hoping I'm wrong
Frk: 30 goals, 50 points. (Probably gets his ass handed to him once or twice before giving up the Darcy tucker impersonation and becomes a good net crasher and goalscorer)
Backman: around 30 is good
Ferraro: 45-50 points
Pullkinen: 10 points, sent to ECHL. (Something just seems off the past 2 seasons. Probably becomes the finnish Hat trick dick)
Marchenko for 15
Jensen: 15-20
Athanasiou: 80ish
Almquist: 35-40 with first PP unit minutes.

 

[sully6one]

You all have some pretty high expectations for first year AHLers. I see this thread as more of a what I wish they'd be.

 

[sarcastro]

Billins was a rookie this last year and did great, I know he came from college but so does Jensen and he has had better numbers all of his years in college, is larger, faster and all around better gifts than Billins. Dekeyser only played a few game with the Griffins and wasn't even that great in his stint there. so I don't really count him as a loss for the team.

and Pulkkinen had 5 points in 14 playoff games last year (3G,2A) and 6 points adding in the two regular season games he played before that. so you are saying with roughly 60 more games and another off season to prepare for the season he will only put up 5 more points. not to mention he was a lot better than most expected he had no issue with the NA game, he threw hits took hits well, blocked shots and kept up without real issue, his speed didn't hurt his game and his height had zero effect on his game since he's built like a brick. I think he could push 40 maybe even 50 pts if he gets 2nd unit PP time 20ish being goals since the guy has a good hockey IQ and is more of a playmaker with a good shot than a sniper. the line of Pulks, Ferraro, and Jurco was gangbusters in the 7-8 games I watched intently.

Lashoff scored 5 points in 6 games on a tryout as an 18 year old. They had him playing some forward. It was a fluke.

I don't buy Pulkkinen as a legit scorer on small ice. I know a lot of people here do, and that's fine. But I don't.

 

[WesNichols14]

Lashoff scored 5 points in 6 games on a tryout as an 18 year old. They had him playing some forward. It was a fluke.

I don't buy Pulkkinen as a legit scorer on small ice. I know a lot of people here do, and that's fine. But I don't.

we'll have to agree to disagree. out of curiosity what would he have to do by mid season to change your mind?

 

[sarcastro]

we'll have to agree to disagree. out of curiosity what would he have to do by mid season to change your mind?

I don't know about this season but eventually he has to dominate the AHL in terms of scoring. Like a certain other undersized and slow-footed former prospect who shall remain nameless, league-leading AHL numbers might translate to a decent middle-six forward's production at the NHL level. And even if he does put up huge numbers, that's no guarantee he'll be able to do it in the NHL.

I'll start thinking of him more as a legit prospect if he puts up numbers that are in the neighborhood of the team leaders. It's going to take league-leading numbers for me to start to get excited. And he'll have to score at the NHL level before I'll buy in completely.

I try to take a look all the prospects with a big grain of salt - history, the odds, and the numbers all say that 9 out of 10 prospects we see here will fail to get beyond spare part / cup of coffee status. The Wings (Babcock in particular) are moving the team away from the small, skilled model to a bigger, faster, harder team. That puts a guy like Pulkkinen at even longer odds.