Prospect Info: Prospect rating #4 runoff
- Thread starter Empoleon8771
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Randy Butternubs
Registered User
O'Connor's so much more likely to make an impact simply because of how near he is that this is a no-brainer for me.
Except, is that how you rank prospects, by who’s more likely to make the NHL sooner? That’s not my view of prospect ranking...imo prospects should be ranked by their potential to be a better NHL player for the club....I put Blomqvist higher for that reason: he has higher upside to be a good quality starting goaltender....OConnor could make the team soon but his ceiling is as a bottom six forward, which are a dime a dozen players...
Gurglesons
Registered User
I don’t think goalies are ever a sure bet and that is why you rarely see them taken in the 1st round. The point of prospects is to get NHL players. O’Connor is likely an NHL player next year in spots.
no prospect is a sure bet...that’s why you go by potential, even for goalies...will respectfully disagree otherwise when “ranking” prospects, which is what this is...only way to distinguish them at this point is by potential to be better NHL players and assume they all make it since you can’t tell who’s going to make it or not
Gurglesons
Registered User
O'Connor is about as close to a sure bet as we have in the org right now.
The reason Poulin, POJ and Legare are above him are their potential.
Blomqvist isn't like a sure fire NHL goaltender. There is a lot to like and as I said in the # 1 rated prospect poll, I probably have him 5th.
My personal approach is who's going to bring the most value to the org, and that means balancing certainty vs ceiling (and probably a bunch of other stuff). In an ideal geeky world I'd have a ton of comparables, and you could map what happens in terms of WAR for those comparables as worst cases, not great cases, average cases, good cases, best cases, and so on, and come up with a score like that... but I can't, so I have to eyeball it.
Blomqvist has, to the best of my knowledge, a very low level of certainty. Look at Jarry's draft as a quick eyeballer, and in the top 10 goalies taken, Jarry's the 2nd most successful player to date there with 62 games. Saaros leads with 118. There's only one other guy who might be a success (Hogberg). It's possible there's not a single long term starter among them.
O'Connor, on the other hand, is about to close as sure as we can get. He's got size and skating, he's got a decent amount of skill, he's done it at a good level of competition. It's a lot harder to gain the data for a quick eyeball, but my guess is the last 10 NCAA forwards touted at O'Connor's level yielded more than 2.5 NHLers.
So, for me, the sort of ceiling disparity (and likelihood of reaching it) I'm looking for to overlook that needs to be nearly as big. The difference between a good quality starter and a good 3rd liner isn't big enough for me. If Blomqvist was even maybe 1 year further along it'd be different... but he isn't.
Randy Butternubs
Registered User
In actuality, it's some combination of upside and likelihood of making the NHL. People weigh it differently.
CheckingLineCenter
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- Aug 10, 2018
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It’s a toss up to me w/ closeness being the tie breaker.
In a traditional sense Blomqvist is the better prospect imo. Higher pedigree, perceived higher upside at a major impact position. And OC is just a college FA, historically not a pathway that yields major results.
But it’s gonna be a while before the goalie is even in North America, and the Pens window is very small now. And OConnor is not the typical FA with skating or size flaws. Seems to have a very high floor toolkit.
In a traditional sense Blomqvist is the better prospect imo. Higher pedigree, perceived higher upside at a major impact position. And OC is just a college FA, historically not a pathway that yields major results.
But it’s gonna be a while before the goalie is even in North America, and the Pens window is very small now. And OConnor is not the typical FA with skating or size flaws. Seems to have a very high floor toolkit.
I mean yes, but only if you’ve seen them play in the professional ranks...I think your prospect rankings can evolve as we see players in training and development camps for the Pens and in other professional leagues against other players who are in or will make the NHL....outside of that, it’s very hard to judge likelihood of making the NHL in a vacuum, especially likelihood of making the Pens roster...I don’t think you can just look at the position and say, well goalies generally take longer...so what...
in that context, we have no information on Blomqvist or OConnor so judgment is in a vacuum...so I’d take the one with starting potential at a more important position (higher ceiling) than one whose ceiling is as a bottom 6 forward...that’s not to say either won’t exceed or fail to make their ceiling
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Empoleon8771
Registered User
Me when I make a run-off for these two because they're so close, only for the runoff to also be tied
Gurglesons
Registered User
Me when I make a run-off for these two because they're so close, only for the runoff to also be tied
Maybe get @Pens x in here to vote. Dude has some pretty solid takes.
Randy Butternubs
Registered User
Me when I make a run-off for these two because they're so close, only for the runoff to also be tied
I kept changing my vote to make it 50/50.
I agree and I went with O'Connor also but these are the picks that can go any way in the future. I think the tier goes Poulin and POJ then a group of 5-7 guys in the next tier. For example either of those goalies we just drafted could be a starter in the NHL and could turn out the best of all our prospects. If Blomqvist or Clang develop into a good NHL starting goalie and have a long career that goalie could very easily be better than Poulin who is our top prospect. The difference is that Poulin is very close to NHL ready and has a decent upside. Those goalies could be anything from non NHL players to long time NHL starters.
Actually if I did that I would switch my vote. I would be more annoyed if they traded Blomqvist but I voted O'Connor because he is the safer option because he is closer to NHL ready. I wouldn't want to trade Blomqvist because I have hopes that Blomqvist and Clang can be our next Jarry and Murray. I want to keep both goalies in the pipeline. As far as rankings as of now I rank O'Connor higher but consider him more expandable. For example if Rutherford traded O'Connor and a pick for a player of need at the deadline I would be fine with that considering we have Guentzel, Zucker, McCann, and Poulin in the system at LW with team control for several years. I rather keep the goalie prospects.
Randy Butternubs
Registered User
Empoleon8771
Registered User
@Randy Butternubs are you O'Connor or Blomqvist? The poll is closed with another tie, so I'm letting you be the tiebreaker.
I'm pretty sure you were O'Connor though so I'll just go with O'Connor unless you have objections to that.
I'm pretty sure you were O'Connor though so I'll just go with O'Connor unless you have objections to that.
Randy Butternubs
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- Jun 13, 2010
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