Prospect Pool Rankings #4

[Pavels Dog]

#1 Los Angeles Kings
1. Quinton Byfield, F
2. Brandt Clarke, D
3. Alex Turcotte, F
4. Arthur Kaliyev, F
5. Brock Faber, D
6. Rasmus Kupari, F
7. Akil Thomas, F
8. Samuel Fagemo, F
9. Tyler Madden, F
10. Francesco Pinelli, F

#2 Anaheim Ducks
1. Trevor Zegras, C
2. Jamie Drysdale, D
3. Mason McTavish, C
4. Lukas Dostal, G
5. Jacob Perreault, RW
6. Olen Zellweger, D
7. Henry Thrun, D
8. Benoit-Olivier Groulx, C
9. Sasha Pastujov, LW
10. Jackson LaCombe, D

#3 Detroit Red Wings
1. Moritz Seider, RD
2. Lucas Raymond, LW/RW
3. Simon Edvinsson, LD
4. Sebastian Cossa, G
5. Jonatan Berggren, LW/RW
6. Joe Veleno, C
7. Albert Johansson, LD
8. Theodor Niederbach, C
9. Shai Buium , LD

Team	#1 Prospect	#2 Prospect	#3 Prospect
-	-	-	-
Arizona	Dylan Guenther	Victor Söderström	Barret Hayton
Boston	Fabian Lysell	Jack Studnicka	John Beecher
Buffalo	Owen Power	Dylan Cozens	Jack Quinn
Calgary	Matthew Coronato	Connor Zary	Jakob Pelletier
Carolina	Seth Jarvis	Jack Drury	Ryan Suzuki
Chicago	Lucas Reichel	Nicholas Beaudin	Wyatt Kalynuk
Colorado	Bowen Byram	Alex Newhook	Justin Barron
Columbus	Kent Johnson	Cole Sillinger	Kirill Marchenko
Dallas	Thomas Harley	Ty Dellandrea	Wyatt Johnston
-	-	-	-
Edmonton	Evan Bouchard	Dylan Holloway	Philip Broberg
Florida	Spencer Knight	Anton Lundell	Grigori Denisenko
-	-	-	-
Minnesota	Matt Boldy	Marco Rossi	Jesper Wallstedt
Montreal	Cole Caufield	Kaiden Guhle	Mattias Norlinder
Nashville	Yaroslav Askarov	Philip Tomasino	Alexandre Carrier
New Jersey	Luke Hughes	Dawson Mercer	Alexander Holtz
NY Isles	Aatu Räty	Robin Salo	William Dufour
NY Rangers	Nils Lundkvist	Vitali Kravtsov	Braden Schneider
Ottawa	Jake Sanderson	Shane Pinto	Erik Brännström
Philadelphia	Morgan Frost	Cam York	Samu Tuomaala
Pittsburgh	Samuel Poulin	Pierre-Olivier Joseph	Filip Hållander
San Jose	William Eklund	Thomas Bordeleau	Ozzy Wiesblatt
Seattle	Matthew Beniers	Kole Lind	Ryan Winterton
St.Louis	Klim Klostin	Scott Perunovich	Zach Bolduc
Tampa Bay	Cal Foote	Maxim Groshev	Jack Finley
Toronto	Rasmus Sandin	Nick Robertson	Timothy Liljegren
Vancouver	Vasili Podkolzin	Jonah Gadjovich	Jack Rathbone
Vegas	Peyton Krebs	Brendan Brisson	Lukas Cormier
Washington	Connor McMichael	Alexander Alexeyev	Hendrix Lapierre
Winnipeg	Cole Perfetti	Ville Heinola	Chaz Lucius

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

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[Bounces R Way]

Like Columbus here. Then either SJ or Buffalo. Maybe Ottawa and the Rangers in there too somewhere.

 

[majormajor]

I voted Ottawa. The Senators and Blue Jackets have the deepest pools of potential impact guys. I still have it fairly close with the two of them and Buffalo, Minnesota.

My rough ranking, along with a couple of the players who "sell" it for me, either in terms of high end or depth of the pool. The number is the rank according to that fanbase, except for Buffalo who I can't find an HF ranking for.

4. Ottawa - Formenton 5th, Sokolov 9th.
5. Buffalo - Cozens 2nd, Peterka - not in top 3.
6. Columbus - Voronkov 5th, Angle 12th.
7. Minnesota - Boldy 1st, Khusnutdinov 7th.
8. New Jersey - Hughes 1st, Mercer 2nd.
9. Edmonton - Holloway 2nd, Samurokov 4th.

 

[Xspyrit]

Ottawa's pool as voted on the Sens board

1- Jake Sanderson
2- Shane Pinto
3- Erik Brännström
4- Tyler Boucher
5- Alex Formenton
6- Ridly Greig
7- Filip Gustavsson
8- Jacob Bernard-Docker
9- Egor Sokolov
10- Mads Søgaard
11- Logan Brown
12- Roby Järventie
13- Tyler Kleven
14- Lassi Thomson
15- Leevi Merilainen
16- Zack Ostapchuk
17- Angus Crookshank
18- Parker Kelly
19- Benjamin Roger
20- Vitali Abramov

And there's several more worth keeping track of like Philippe Daoust, Oliver Johansson, Carson Latimer, Maxence Guénette, etc

 

[wetcoast]

Ottawa's pool as voted on the Sens board

1- Jake Sanderson
2- Shane Pinto
3- Erik Brännström
4- Tyler Boucher
5- Alex Formenton
6- Ridly Greig
7- Filip Gustavsson
8- Jacob Bernard-Docker
9- Egor Sokolov
10- Mads Søgaard
11- Logan Brown
12- Roby Järventie
13- Tyler Kleven
14- Lassi Thomson
15- Leevi Merilainen
16- Zack Ostapchuk
17- Angus Crookshank
18- Parker Kelly
19- Benjamin Roger
20- Vitali Abramov

And there's several more worth keeping track of like Philippe Daoust, Oliver Johansson, Carson Latimer, Maxence Guénette, etc

that's great but Colorado has Bryam and Newhook heading their class along with Barron, Helleson and Behrens to form a really strong top end group here.

 

[Favin]

My top-7 (bold are taken)

1. Los Angeles Kings
2. Anaheim Ducks
3. New Jersey Devils
4. Detroit Red Wings

5. Ottawa Senators
6. Nashville Predators
7. Minnesota Wild

 

[Xspyrit]

that's great but Colorado has Bryam and Newhook heading their class along with Barron, Helleson and Behrens to form a really strong top end group here.

My post was 100% informative as I just listed how the pool was ranked on the Sens board. I didn't compare it to any pool but we can do that if you want.

Avalanche's top-3 is really great and I'd give them the edge for sure (although I think Sanderson and Pinto are still somewhat underrated). I'm pretty high on Newhook, he's a better prospect for me than Byram and Caufield for example.

But after that, the Sens pool seems to be taking over. Tyler Boucher is a complete unknown but have to give them the benefit of the doubt, looks like a pick that could "silence the critics" pretty fast like it did with Tkachuk, Sanderson, Pinto and Kleven for example. They wouldn't have picked him 10th OA if they didn't see a serious player here. Olausson from the same draft 28th OA, draft position is the only thing we have for now. Even if you put these two as equal, after that, I'm taking the Sens pretty easily

I don't know how you think the rest of Colorado Top-20 should be compared but the 10-20 guys on OTT's pool are far from "depth prospects". The #10 started his AHL career 7-0 and made it look kinda easy (saw 4 of those games), #12 put pretty good numbers in pro leagues as a 18 y/o, has a very appealing skillset; #13 is a beast in the making; #15 just turned 19 y/o and is already making a name for himself; #16 is the 39th OA pick from 2021; #17 started his AHL career with 16 pts in 19 gp and received a lot of praise from the coaching staff; #19 is their last 2nd round pick, 49th OA in 2021.

1- Jake Sanderson vs Bowen Byram
2- Shane Pinto vs Alex Newhook
3- Erik Brännström vs Justin Barron
4- Tyler Boucher vs Oskar Olausson
5- Alex Formenton vs Martin Kaut
6- Ridly Greig vs Jean-Luc Foudy
7- Filip Gustavsson vs Justus Annunen
8- Jacob Bernard-Docker vs Drew Helleson
9- Egor Sokolov vs Sampo Ranta
10- Mads Søgaard vs Trent Miner
11- Logan Brown vs Shane Bowers
12- Roby Järventie vs Mikhail Maltsev
13- Tyler Kleven vs Sean Behrens
14- Lassi Thomson vs Daniil Zhuravlyov
15- Leevi Merilainen (G) vs Andrei Buyalski (C)
16- Zack Ostapchuk vs Colby Ambrosio
17- Angus Crookshank vs Alex Beaucage
18- Parker Kelly vs Nikolai Kovalenko
19- Benjamin Roger (D) vs Tyler Weiss (LW)
20- Vitali Abramov vs Andreas Wingerli

Let me know if comparisons should be made differently

 

[wetcoast]

My post was 100% informative as I just listed how the pool was ranked on the Sens board. I didn't compare it to any pool but we can do that if you want.

Avalanche's top-3 is really great and I'd give them the edge for sure (although I think Sanderson and Pinto are still somewhat underrated). I'm pretty high on Newhook, he's a better prospect for me than Byram and Caufield for example.

But after that, the Sens pool seems to be taking over. Tyler Boucher is a complete unknown but have to give them the benefit of the doubt, looks like a pick that could "silence the critics" pretty fast like it did with Tkachuk, Sanderson, Pinto and Kleven for example. They wouldn't have picked him 10th OA if they didn't see a serious player here. Olausson from the same draft 28th OA, draft position is the only thing we have for now. Even if you put these two as equal, after that, I'm taking the Sens pretty easily

I don't know how you think the rest of Colorado Top-20 should be compared but the 10-20 guys on OTT's pool are far from "depth prospects". The #10 started his AHL career 7-0 and made it look kinda easy (saw 4 of those games), #12 put pretty good numbers in pro leagues as a 18 y/o, has a very appealing skillset; #13 is a beast in the making, #15 just turned 19 y/o and looks like a stud, #16 is the 39th OA pick from 2021, #17 started his AHL career with 16 pts in 19 gp and received a lot of praise from the coaching staff. #19 is their last 2nd round pick, 49th OA in 2021.

1- Jake Sanderson vs Bowen Byram
2- Shane Pinto vs Alex Newhook
3- Erik Brännström vs Justin Barron
4- Tyler Boucher vs Oskar Olausson
5- Alex Formenton vs Martin Kaut
6- Ridly Greig vs Jean-Luc Foudy
7- Filip Gustavsson vs Justus Annunen
8- Jacob Bernard-Docker vs Drew Helleson
9- Egor Sokolov vs Sampo Ranta
10- Mads Søgaard
11- Logan Brown
12- Roby Järventie
13- Tyler Kleven vs Sean Behrens
14- Lassi Thomson
15- Leevi Merilainen
16- Zack Ostapchuk
17- Angus Crookshank
18- Parker Kelly
19- Benjamin Roger
20- Vitali Abramov

Rest of Colorado Top-20

11) Mikhail Maltsev
12) Shane Bowers
13) Colby Ambrosio
14) Nikolai Kovalenko
15) Alex Beaucage
16) Daniil Zhuravlyov
17) Andreas Wingerli
18) Andrei Buyalski
19) Trent Miner
20) Tyler Weiss

Honestly I put about 75% of any team prospect ranking in their top 5 guys, then maybe 20% in the 6-10 range, anyone else outside of their top 10 is simply a project and a bonus.

 

[CraigsList]

I voted Ottawa.

What’s the cutoff for GP? I consider cozens a graduate

 

[Xspyrit]

Honestly I put about 75% of any team prospect ranking in their top 5 guys, then maybe 20% in the 6-10 range, anyone else outside of their top 10 is simply a project and a bonus.

I see but it's also because we don't know every team's pool in deep. But in the end, it's how many NHLers you develop and what is the overall quality of your crop

"Anyone else outside of their top 10 is simply a project and a bonus" really won't give Ottawa's pool justice because its quality goes way beyond the top-10. Two things to keep in mind, the Sens have been rebuilding since 2018 so they have collected draft picks but there's also something very different than other rebuilds : they had the LUXURY to trade players in their prime (and it was infuriating when it happened). Look at the age of players like Karlsson, Duchene, Pageau, Stone, Dzingel, etc got traded... The oldest player traded (that returned positive assets) was 30 y/o Derick Brassard.

The last time it looked a bit like that (but not even close) was in 2011, the Sens did a retool and had a very deep pool. This was the result of drafting being totally revamped when Murray became GM in 2007. I'm just leaving out a few names here but note the rank position #

Prospects of 2011

16. Mark Borowiecki
17. Mark Stone
18. Mike Hoffman
19. Eric Gryba
21. Derek Grant
22. Marcus Sorensen
23. Jean-Gabriel Pageau
27. Fredrik Claesson
28. Chris Wideman
38. Ryan Dzingel

There has been several changes since but what I want to tell you is that in today's pool, after the top-8 of more "well-known" Sens prospects, there's going to be a lot of NHL players in the #9-25 group and some very good ones.

I think #9 (Egor Sokolov) and #17 (Angus Crookshank) make the team this year at some point and never look back. They seem to like #18 (Parker Kelly) a lot too. Maybe it will be him vs Crookshank. The #11 (Logan Brown), if he can somehow manage to stay healthy, should play in the NHL too, but most likely on another team

 

[wetcoast]

I see but it's also because we don't know every team's pool in deep. But in the end, it's how many NHLers you develop and what is the overall quality of your crop

"Anyone else outside of their top 10 is simply a project and a bonus" really won't give Ottawa's pool justice because its quality goes way beyond the top-10. Two things to keep in mind, the Sens have been rebuilding since 2018 so they have collected draft picks but there's also something very different than other rebuilds : they had the LUXURY to trade players in their prime (and it was infuriating when it happened). Look at the age of players like Karlsson, Duchene, Pageau, Stone, Dzingel, etc got traded... The oldest player traded (that returned positive assets) was 30 y/o Derick Brassard.

The last time it looked a bit like that (but not even close) was in 2011, the Sens did a retool and had a very deep pool. This was the result of drafting being totally revamped when Murray became GM in 2007. I'm just leaving out a few names here but not the rank position #

Prospects of 2011

16. Mark Borowiecki
17. Mark Stone
18. Mike Hoffman
19. Eric Gryba
21. Derek Grant
22. Marcus Sorensen
23. Jean-Gabriel Pageau
27. Fredrik Claesson
28. Chris Wideman
38. Ryan Dzingel

There has been several changes since but what I want to tell you is that in today's pool, after the top-8 of more "well-known" Sens prospects, there's going to be a lot of NHL players in the #9-25 group and some very good ones.

I think #9 (Egor Sokolov) and #17 (Angus Crookshank) make the team this year at some point and never look back. They seem to like #18 (Parker Kelly) a lot too. Maybe it will be him vs Crookshank. The #11 (Logan Brown), if he can somehow manage to stay healthy, should play in the NHL too, but most likely on another team

Where exactly are you getting these rankings from?

 

[Xspyrit]

Where exactly are you getting these rankings from?

You mean the "Prospects of 2011"???

From the Sens board. I have been one of the 2 posters who ran these polls for years (and before that there was others). You can see in my polls a link for past pools. Oldest pool was 2004

2016 Senators Prospects Top 30 + Past Rankings

 

[wetcoast]

You mean the "Prospects of 2011"???

From the Sens board. I have been one of the 2 posters who ran these polls for years (and before that there was others). You can see in my polls a link for past pools. Oldest pool was 2004

2016 Senators Prospects Top 30 + Past Rankings

Yes so you went back far enough, to 2011 to find a list that supported your narrative here, most of those other years some of the 11-30s became fringe NHLers for a short time and the Sens fortunes with their top 5 each year has led to how poorly they have done over the years recently.

I mean in 2016 Logan Brown was 2nd on the list on now he is 11th and not because other prospects are elite mindblowing ones, he just hasn't progressed.

Heck that link generally backs up what I was asserting with the top 5 being worth around 75% of the rating.

 

[majormajor]

Yes so you went back far enough, to 2011 to find a list that supported your narrative here, most of those other years some of the 11-30s became fringe NHLers for a short time and the Sens fortunes with their top 5 each year has led to how poorly they have done over the years recently.

I mean in 2016 Logan Brown was 2nd on the list on now he is 11th and not because other prospects are elite mindblowing ones, he just hasn't progressed.

Heck that link generally backs up what I was asserting with the top 5 being worth around 75% of the rating.

I think you might have missed their point. They were saying that sometimes those 11-30s play a big role in a team's future success, and sometimes they don't. Obviously a lot of the time those parts of a team's prospect pool don't pan out. They were saying that on rare occasion prospect pools can be blessed with a deep wave.

I would say Ottawa's struggles over the last decade or so have been largely despite their strong drafting.

 

[Xspyrit]

Yes so you went back far enough, to 2011 to find a list that supported your narrative here, most of those other years some of the 11-30s became fringe NHLers for a short time and the Sens fortunes with their top 5 each year has led to how poorly they have done over the years recently.

I mean in 2016 Logan Brown was 2nd on the list on now he is 11th and not because other prospects are elite mindblowing ones, he just hasn't progressed.

Heck that link generally backs up what I was asserting with the top 5 being worth around 75% of the rating.

It's not about "going far". I went back (on the same page) to the last time Ottawa did AT LEAST a retool. They actually never rebuilt. They got the franchise back in 1992, had 4 really though years at the beginning, then started to make the playoffs and became a really good team, made the playoffs 11 years straight. Had some up and downs for a few years after that until that 2011 retool which allowed them to have a very deep pool (but really not as great at the top vs the pool of the last few years). Drafting was already excellent back then, which is why there was several good/great players in the later spots of the list I provided. I'm not inventing anything, I don't have any "narrative" here. I am simply explaining WHY (read below)

I'd say that for most years, you'd tend to be absolutely right but you have to note 3 things :

- Any team rebuilding should increase the quality and depth of its prospect pool significantly over a few years

- Drafting (and developing) is actually the ONLY thing Ottawa does well (since 2008). The rest has been subpar for years (quick before Melnyk's vultures find me)

- In "normal" years, even if Ottawa is good at drafting, they wouldn't have anything close to the quality/depth they have now. I explained it in post #10 (maybe you skipped) but read again about the LUXURY to trade players in their prime. Do you want me to make a list of what all these players returned? Just for Erik Karlsson, we're talking about Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, Mads Sogaard, Leevi Merilainen and Zack Ostapchuk...

Of course if you ADD that kind of haul to any rebuilding team's pool, it will become stacked extremely quickly (unless that team sucks at drafting)

Note : Logan Brown is a whole different subject/animal. First, the guy has been injury prone like crazy. He also has a disgruntled father (Jeff Brown)

I think you might have missed their point. They were saying that sometimes those 11-30s play a big role in a team's future success, and sometimes they don't. Obviously a lot of the time those parts of a team's prospect pool don't pan out. They were saying that on rare occasion prospect pools can be blessed with a deep wave.

I would say Ottawa's struggles over the last decade or so have been largely despite their strong drafting.

Yes, you totally understood. These deep waves that you're talking about SHOULD absolutely happen when a team is rebuilding. You're failing if you don't have a pool with deep quality.

And yes about the last statement, this is another subject so there would be a lot to say but yeah the current rebuild didn't happen because of poor drafting. If you look at 2008-2015 drafts, there's no way a team who drafted that much talent in that period should have been rebuilding. There's many other factors to explain it and I'd say that 3 of the main ones are related to budget/Melnyk, cheap inexperienced coaching and injury issues to too many key players.