HF Habs: Prospect Expectations

Kairi Zaide

Unforgiven
Aug 11, 2009
104,855
12,257
Quebec City
Since 1990, only Sedin/Jokinen /Gaborik/Toews/Duchene*/Primeau*/Draisatl/Huberdeau (third overall picks) have been better players than Stepan.
That's kind of a pointless comparison to make. You expect a third overall pick to become at least the third best player of his draft class, or close to this. This rarely happens, but that is what you hope for. You don't compare a 3rd overall pick to previous 3rd overall picks. You compare a 3rd overall pick to players who were picked after.
 
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Estimated_Prophet

Registered User
Mar 28, 2003
10,291
10,382
Since 1990, only Sedin/Jokinen /Gaborik/Toews/Duchene*/Primeau*/Draisatl/Huberdeau (third overall picks) have been better players than Stepan.
You forgot Niedermayer who was easily the best pick at #3 during this span. There were also many that were marginally better, injury plagued or yet to be determined.There were also many cases where teams simply made a terrible pick and passed on an elite player in the next 2 picks. It doesn't matter so much about who was taken at 3 but who was available at 3. Every year since 1990 a better player than Stepan was available at 3
 

DramaticGloveSave

Voice of Reason
Apr 17, 2017
14,598
13,275
By old HockeysFuture standard, with the number being the potential and the letter the possibility of the player reaching it, I'd say :

Kotkaniemi - 8.5 B
Poehling - 7 C
Ylonen - 7.5 C
Hillis - 7 C
Brook 7.5 B
Fleury 6.5 C
Evans 6 B
You really have Kotkaniemi that far ahead? I do agree he's our best prospect, but he's not that far ahead of Poehling- both are likely 2Cs at the moment. This makes it look like you think he's a Kopitar/Barkov level prospect.... which would be amazing, but I just think these expectations are just going to lead to massive disappointment.
 

Treb

Global Flanderator
May 31, 2011
28,299
28,191
Montreal
Kotkaniemi - 8.5 B
Ylonen - 8 D
Romanov - 8 D
Olofsson - 7 C
Hillis - 8 D
Harris - 6D
McShane - 6.5D
Gorinak - 7D
F0nstad - 7.5D
Houde - 6D
Stapley - 6D

Poehling - 7.5 B
Brook - 8 B
Ikonen - 7 D
Walford - 6 D
Fleury - 7 C
Tyszka - 7 D
Primeau - 8 C

Bitten - 6.5 C
Mete - 7.5 C
Pezzetta - 5 D
Henrikson - 5 D

Juulsen - 7 B
Vejdemo - 6.5 C
Addison - 5.5 C

Scherbak - 7 C
Lernout - 5 B
Koberstein - 3 C
Audette - 6 D
Evans - 7.5 D
Valiev - 6 C

McCarron - 5 C
Rychel - 5 B

Lindgren - 7.5 C
McNiven - 7 C
Waked - 4C
Moravcik - 7.5D
Sklenicka - 6D
Alain - 6.5D
Verbeek - 6.5D​
 

VirginiaMtlExpat

Second most interesting man in the world.
Aug 20, 2003
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Norfolk, VA
www.odu.edu
Kotkaniemi - 8.5 B
Ylonen - 8 D

Romanov - 8 D
Olofsson - 7 C
Hillis - 8 D
Harris - 6D
McShane - 6.5D
Gorinak - 7D
F0nstad - 7.5D
Houde - 6D
Stapley - 6D

Poehling - 7.5 B
Brook - 8 B
...
Verbeek - 6.5D
I like these numbers. I particularly agree with the high values given to Romanov and Hillis, even though I have seen these players only on highlight films. I am very excited about the promise of many players taken in this year's draft. Both these guys in particular strike me as future productive NHLers, especially if they work on their weaknesses. I also am hopeful about Brook.
 
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Estimated_Prophet

Registered User
Mar 28, 2003
10,291
10,382
You really have Kotkaniemi that far ahead? I do agree he's our best prospect, but he's not that far ahead of Poehling- both are likely 2Cs at the moment. This makes it look like you think he's a Kopitar/Barkov level prospect.... which would be amazing, but I just think these expectations are just going to lead to massive disappointment.
He has Kotkaniemi too high and Poeling too low
 

ProspectsFanatic

Registered User
Nov 13, 2012
3,698
2,428
In depth optimistic expectations;
Houde - Crap
Stapley - Crap
Bitten - Fringe at best
Pezzetta - Crap
Henrikson - Crap
Vejdemo - Fringe at best
Addison - Crap
Lernout - Fringe at best
Koberstein - Crap
Audette - Crap
Valiev - Fringe at best
McCarron - Bust
Rychel - Bust
Waked - Crap
Moravcik - Fringe at best
Sklenicka - Fringe at best
Alain - Crap
Verbeek - Crap
Staum - Next Karlsson

2018 draft, Ikonen, Fleury, Walford, Tsyzka; too soon to tell.
 
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ottawa

Avatar of the Year*
Nov 7, 2012
33,723
10,253
Orléans/Toronto
Since 1990, only Sedin/Jokinen /Gaborik/Toews/Duchene*/Primeau*/Draisatl/Huberdeau (third overall picks) have been better players than Stepan.

Jay Bouwmeester? Scott Niedermayer?

Dubois and Heiskanen are looking pretty damn good right now too but it's too early I suppose.
 

Mrb1p

PRICERSTOPDAPUCK
Dec 10, 2011
88,588
54,680
Citizen of the world
I just realized these rankings were for the whole organisation, thats why Toronto is so high.

Also, how is Peca 6th on the Lighting and a mere HM on the 28th worst team in the league? What a terribad damn ranking.
 
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LaP

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
24,575
17,878
Quebec City, Canada
Since 1990, only Sedin/Jokinen /Gaborik/Toews/Duchene*/Primeau*/Draisatl/Huberdeau (third overall picks) have been better players than Stepan.
Draft is not 100% accurate. At 3rd overall you are looking for an impact player not the 2nd coming of Plekanec. It's better to have a Stepan than nothing but it'S still gonna be a failure at this rank imo.
 

LaP

Registered User
Jun 27, 2012
24,575
17,878
Quebec City, Canada
I just realized these rankings were for the whole organisation, thats why Toronto is so high.

Also, how is Peca 6th on the Lighting and a mere HM on the 28th worst team in the league? What a terribad damn ranking.

Being one year older tends to do that to "prospects" in the middle of their 20ies. Not sure i would consider Peca a prospect at his age. He might still develop into a NHL player but at this age we're not really talking about a prospect anymore imo.
 

26Mats

Registered User
Jun 23, 2018
32,061
24,529
Not to derail the ranking threads but I thought it'd be interesting to have a seperate thread for what fans expect for some of our prospects, as some have pointed out, our prospect pool hasn't been this deep in a long time so I am interested to hear the input of our posters on some of these guys. Obviously chances are maybe 3-5 guys out of this bunch will play over 150 NHL games but the summer is long and it gives us something to talk about ;)

EX:

Kotkaniemi, upside: 1A/1B center a la Stepan, chances he reaches upside: 50%
Fleury, upside: #3 defenseman a la Rivet, chances he reaches upside: 25%

What are yours?

My advice: just be patient. What kind of player he is will be revealed before our eyes through his play. No sense in speculating now. Just be patient.
 

Scriptor

Registered User
Jan 1, 2014
7,776
4,747
Not to derail the ranking threads but I thought it'd be interesting to have a seperate thread for what fans expect for some of our prospects, as some have pointed out, our prospect pool hasn't been this deep in a long time so I am interested to hear the input of our posters on some of these guys. Obviously chances are maybe 3-5 guys out of this bunch will play over 150 NHL games but the summer is long and it gives us something to talk about ;)

EX:

Kotkaniemi, upside: 1A/1B center a la Stepan, chances he reaches upside: 50%
Fleury, upside: #3 defenseman a la Rivet, chances he reaches upside: 25%

What are yours?

Call it Prospectations.

Poehling: #2C à la O'Reilly. chances he reaches upside: 70%
 

The Great Weal

Phil's Pizza
Jan 15, 2015
52,641
65,598
I have a headache from reading the mainboards take on our prospects. IDK how @Mrb1p does it even though I think you are pumping our tires.
 

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