HF Habs: Prospect Expectations

[Le Barron de HF]

Not to derail the ranking threads but I thought it'd be interesting to have a seperate thread for what fans expect for some of our prospects, as some have pointed out, our prospect pool hasn't been this deep in a long time so I am interested to hear the input of our posters on some of these guys. Obviously chances are maybe 3-5 guys out of this bunch will play over 150 NHL games but the summer is long and it gives us something to talk about

EX:

Kotkaniemi, upside: 1A/1B center a la Stepan, chances he reaches upside: 50%
Fleury, upside: #3 defenseman a la Rivet, chances he reaches upside: 25%

What are yours?

Click to read more...

 

[LaP]

If Kot upside is just Stepan then it's a bad pick.

 

[David Suzuki]

I like to hope he's a lot better then Derek Stepan.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

I like to hope he's a lot better then Derek Stepan.

If Kot upside is just Stepan then it's a bad pick.

0.7 PPG center (55-60 pts a year) is not a bad pick at all.

 

[David Suzuki]

0.7 PPG center (55-60 pts a year) is not a bad pick at all.

At third overall it certainly would be.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

At third overall it certainly would be.

Since 1990, only Sedin/Jokinen /Gaborik/Toews/Duchene*/Primeau*/Draisatl/Huberdeau (third overall picks) have been better players than Stepan.

 

[G0bias]

Ylonen playing in a "far away" league like Mestis was a blessing. He's a better pick than quite a few first rounders and my expectations reflect that.

Down the road, I see a player who can hang with everyone and anyone you pair him with.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

Ylonen playing in a "far away" league like Mestis was a blessing. He's a better pick than quite a few first rounders and my expectations reflect that.

Down the road, I see a player who can hang with everyone and anyone you pair him with.

Kind of like when we nabbed Sergei Kostitsyn? Lack of exposure?

 

[G0bias]

Kind of like when we nabbed Sergei Kostitsyn? Lack of exposure?

Yep, though maybe not to the same degree as we got Kostitsyn in the 7th. Not putting up gaudy numbers in some junior league is another. But some teams don't even have a dedicated Finnish scout for example - and he's playing in a 2nd tier pro league- so you see some of these players picked up later than they should've went.

 

[Simarino]

I hope Kotka reach the Kopitar-Barkov level, if he can improve his skating enough to become a slightly above avg skater i think he's gonna be in the same tier as these guys.

My next favorite prospects are Hillis and Ylonen, they both have potential to be exciting top 6 players in the nhl.

 

[LaP]

0.7 PPG center (55-60 pts a year) is not a bad pick at all.

ppg can be misleading for players who missed a big chunk of a couple of seasons and who are in their prime. The fact remains he has yet to have a 60 points season so i sure hope Kot will be better than that. A 50 points player wont do much to improve this team. And that's what Stepan is.

I don't know Kot enough to project anything but i sure do hope his potential is more in line with Barkov or Kopitar than Stepan.

 

[De Montreal]

By old HockeysFuture standard, with the number being the potential and the letter the possibility of the player reaching it, I'd say :

Kotkaniemi - 8.5 B
Poehling - 7 C
Ylonen - 7.5 C
Hillis - 7 C
Brook 7.5 B
Fleury 6.5 C
Evans 6 B

 

[Andrei79]

In regards to improving skating, it's been a topic we've discussed many times around different threads.

Some posters believe it's a "you have it or you don't" skill and that improvement is rare from juniors to the NHL.

Being such a technical skill, it's one you can breakdown, teach level by level and improve significantly. We brought up many players who've improved significantly (Draisaitl, who clocked in almost at 40km/h at the WC) and some who've even become great skaters (Barkov).

But, I feel like this video's worth posting, it's one where you can not only clearly see significant improvement in technique, but speed too.




For a prospect that wants to improve, it's entirely possible, to the point he can become a great skater in his twenties (I'm thinking Hillis and Kotkaniemi here).

So, these two have quite bit of upside.

 

[sandviper]

Anyone play NHL 18 (or earlier)? If so, this should be easy to understand. These are my evaluations of potential and ceiling. I'll be using @ottawa rankings list based on polls of this board as of today:

1. Jesperi Kotkaniemi (C) - Low Elite
2. Ryan Poehling (C) - Low Top-6 Forward
3. Victor Mete (D) - Med Top-6 Defence
4. Noah Juulsen (D) - Low Top-4 Defence
5. Jesse Ylönen (RW) - High Top-9 Forward
6. Josh Brook (D)- Low Top-4 Defence
7. Cayden Primeau (G) - Medium Starter
8. Jacob Olofsson (F) - Medium Top-9 Forward
9. Cale Fleury (D) - Medium Top-4 Defence
10. Jake Evans (C/RW) - High Bottom-6 Forward
11. Charlie Lindgren (G) - High Backup
12. Joni Ikonen (C/RW) - Low Top-9 Forward
13. Alexander S. Romanov (D)- Medium Top-4 Defence
14. Cameron Hillis (C) - High Top-9 Forward

I'll go up to 17 as the next 3 are within percentages of each other on the #15 poll.

15. Cole Fonstad (C/LW) - Med Top-9 Forward
16. Allan McShane (C) - Med Top-9 Forward
17. William Bitten (C/RW) - Med Bottom-6 Forward

Just some notes. A "Low Elite" means I think this player has a low probability of being elite (like Tavares, Stamkos or Matthews tier) but can be a solid top-6 forward. Since we only have one of these, I think there is a possibility of Kotkaniemi becoming a franchise center for us, but it will really depend on his overall development.

I do differentiate a top-9 forward and a bottom-6. A top-9 guy for us right now is Lehkonen, while I view Shaw as a bottom-6 even though both may play the same line.

Also, say somebody like Hillis who I think has a high probability of being a top-9 forward. This means I think 3rd line duties should be a slam dunk for him, but he has potential to play 2nd or maybe fill in at first. Perfect example I think is Eller.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

In regards to improving skating, it's been a topic we've discussed many times around different threads.

Some posters believe it's a "you have it or you don't" skill and that improvement is rare from juniors to the NHL.

Being such a technical skill, it's one you can breakdown, teach level by level and improve significantly. We brought up many players who've improved significantly (Draisaitl, who clocked in almost at 40km/h at the WC) and some who've even become great skaters (Barkov).

But, I feel like this video's worth posting, it's one where you can not only clearly see significant improvement in technique, but speed too.




For a prospect that wants to improve, it's entirely possible, to the point he can become a great skater in his twenties (I'm thinking Hillis and Kotkaniemi here).

So, these two have quite bit of upside.

Great post. I believe that this is true of many flaws, save for a lack of hockey sense. A shot can also be improved with sufficiently inspired training. Heck, I would even consider human growth hormone for a player whose diminutive height makes him unlikely to play, especially given the lax drug testing in the NHL. Critically Analyzing the NHL’s Performance Enhancing Substance Program
Dynamic eyesight training for goalies. And so on. Anything to eradicate the most important flaw on any given athlete. To be honest, I don't understand why professional teams are not doing this type of improvement more systematically.

 

[Mrb1p]

ppg can be misleading for players who missed a big chunk of a couple of seasons and who are in their prime. The fact remains he has yet to have a 60 points season so i sure hope Kot will be better than that. A 50 points player wont do much to improve this team. And that's what Stepan is.

I don't know Kot enough to project anything but i sure do hope his potential is more in line with Barkov or Kopitar than Stepan.

Barkov and Kopitar are both special players, theres like 5 better centers than them and 5 other comparables, its a heavy burden to put that on the shoulders of anyone, no matter the pick.

 

[yianik]

I will focus on Cs here.

I have crunched numbers and seen other numbers and my take is this of landing a top 6C from our prospect pool. Largely by pure stats, meaning where they were drafted.

Kotkaniemi I say about 70%. Poehling about 35% but because of his very good year of development I say 50/50. Olofsson at 20%. Then we have a whole bunch of guys we drafted or signed as free agents like Peca. Their chances maybe from 1% to 3 % or so each, maybe Hillis a bit higher, so I will add a global 15% to 20%.

So I think it's a lock we will have 1 top 6C and a better than even chance of 2 top 6C out of our pool.

A 2nd line C to me is a guy typically limited in play making and puck handling but can pass, with some stick work, and has a good enough shot to hit 20 plus goals and 55 to 60 points.

A 1st line guy has the ability to skate with the puck in tight, has vision and therefore playmaking ability.

I mean there is other stuff. But the vision and playmaking skills that is the big difference.

Kotkaniemi to me has the skill set to execute, and that vision , to be a 1C. He has a shot. He needs to have more explosiveness in the first few steps. If he gets there on the skating, I see a 70- 80 point guy.

Poehling looks like he is on track to be a solid 2C. Olofsson and Hillis with the next best potential as 2Cs.

We finally have a pool of centre prospects.

 

[Habs Icing]

Since 1990, only Sedin/Jokinen /Gaborik/Toews/Duchene*/Primeau*/Draisatl/Huberdeau (third overall picks) have been better players than Stepan.

You might want to re-think what you just wrote. You'd take Stephan over lets say......Kopitar. Ok, I just noticed you're comparing 3rd OA picks.

 

[Habs Icing]

Kind of like when we nabbed Sergei Kostitsyn? Lack of exposure?

Wasn't S. Kostitsyn part of the best line in Canadian junior hockey: Kane Gagne Kositsyn

 

[Le Barron de HF]

You might want to re-think what you just wrote. You'd take Stephan over lets say......Kopitar.

I specifically wrote 3rd overall picks. Kopitar was not drafted 3rd overall.

 

[Le Barron de HF]

Wasn't S. Kostitsyn part of the best line in Canadian junior hockey: Kane Gagne Kositsyn

Not in his draft year.

 

[Andrei79]

Great post. I believe that this is true of many flaws, save for a lack of hockey sense. A shot can also be improved with sufficiently inspired training. Heck, I would even consider human growth hormone for a player whose diminutive height makes him unlikely to play, especially given the lax drug testing in the NHL. Critically Analyzing the NHL’s Performance Enhancing Substance Program
Dynamic eyesight training for goalies. And so on. Anything to eradicate the most important flaw on any given athlete. To be honest, I don't understand why professional teams are not doing this type of improvement more systematically.

Some teams are starting though. I know the Bruins had an excellent skills coach in recent years (a Finn) and the Lightning have a bunch of different development professionals. The Leafs have one of the best in Darryl Belfry (consultant for them, hired by Dubas).

The first part of making that change is forgetting preconcieved notions and truisms like "he has it in him or he doesn't". Life in general has way more variance than that.

Another skill that's entirely possible to break down from the feet, to uses of edge work/weight shifting and actual technical aspects is stickhandling.

 

[montreal]

I'm still working on watching the new picks,

here's what the numbers are based off,

NHL Player System Rating Rules - Hockey's Future

Kotkaniemi - 8.5 B
Ylonen - 8 C
Romanov - 7 D
Olofsson - 7 C
Hillis - 7 C
Harris - NA
McShane - NA
Gorinak - NA
F0nstad - NA
Houde - NA
Stapley - NA

Poehling - 7 B
Brook - 8 B
Ikonen - 7.5 D
Walford - 6 D
Fleury - 7 C
Tyszka - 7 D
Primeau - 8 C

Bitten - 6.5 C
Mete - 7.5 C
Pezzetta - 5 C
Henrikson - 5 D

Juulsen - 7 B
Vejdemo - 6.5 C
Addison - 5 B

Scherbak - 8 C
Lernout - 5 C
Koberstein - 3.5 B
Audette - 7 D
Evans - 6 B
Valiev - 6 C

McCarron - 5 C
Rychel - 5 B

Lindgren - 7.5 C
McNiven - 7 C
Waked - 3 B
Moravcik - NA
Sklenicka - NA
Alain - NA
Verbeek - NA

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

Some teams are starting though. I know the Bruins had an excellent skills coach in recent years (a Finn) and the Lightning have a bunch of different development professionals. The Leafs have one of the best in Darryl Belfry (consultant for them, hired by Dubas).

The first part of making that change is forgetting preconcieved notions and truisms like "he has it in him or he doesn't". Life in general has way more variance than that.

Another skill that's entirely possible to break down from the feet, to uses of edge work/weight shifting and actual technical aspects is stickhandling.

While on the subject, I am intrigued by what a combination of significant targeted training and dietary changes could do to a potentially serviceable player in mid-career. There are a lot of complaints about Alzner for example. What if we take this player, and show him a few game films at the end of the season and then suggest that he work with both a skating trainer and dietitian over the summer, then ask him to show up 15 pounds lighter and with significant attention paid to his explosiveness in the off-season. My surmise is that he could morph into a serviceable defenseman.

Look at what happened to Ovy last season after coming to camp much lighter than the preceding seasons; fast-forward to this past spring and instill a warrior's mentality in the guy: he finally gets past the Pens and leads the Caps (not too strong an expression, although Kuznetzov also had something to say) to a Cup.

Not saying Alzner would be another Ovy, but what would happen if he improved "25%" (to throw a figure out there)? We might have a decent 3-4D, more in line with the promise he had as a first rounder. Edit: Hell, what if he did it not only the whole summer, but over a year or so, sandwiched by two summers? Different player IMO.

Now go up and down the lineup and ask this question about the main flaw of each of our vets. Some of these could also lead to comparable improvement in those vets' play.

Edit: looks like this idea has occurred to Price. Recent pictures having him shedding a lot of weight. Memo to fantasy managers out there for the upcoming season. More cause for guarded optimism.

 

[MD thaivuN]

In regards to improving skating, it's been a topic we've discussed many times around different threads.

Some posters believe it's a "you have it or you don't" skill and that improvement is rare from juniors to the NHL.

Being such a technical skill, it's one you can breakdown, teach level by level and improve significantly. We brought up many players who've improved significantly (Draisaitl, who clocked in almost at 40km/h at the WC) and some who've even become great skaters (Barkov).

But, I feel like this video's worth posting, it's one where you can not only clearly see significant improvement in technique, but speed too.




For a prospect that wants to improve, it's entirely possible, to the point he can become a great skater in his twenties (I'm thinking Hillis and Kotkaniemi here).

So, these two have quite bit of upside.

Great athletes can always improve technically. Kotka and Hillis seems like good athletes, contrary to a lumbering guy like McCarron.