Here is the real question, where do you find room(Leafs) for Johnsson ? On the 4th line? Even if you trade Leivo is there a good spot?
Prospect Info: Prospect and Marlies Thread: 2017 - 2018 (continued) Part II
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Man Bear Pig
Registered User
There isn't any room. That's why he's not going to be a full timer until next season. Trading Leivo has zero impact on the actual game day roster.
TheGoldenJet
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firstemperor
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- May 25, 2011
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He's probably in next year....with JVR/Bozak/Komarov/Moore, 4 spots potentially open up.
Kapanen, Leivo, Johnsson are favorites to fill 3 of those IMO. Kapanen and Leivo can play the left side.....Johnsson might take the RW spot if Nylander slides over to C......or some other combination of transactions might open something up somewhere else.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
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Mueller is not a UFA, Pospisil is not really a Leafs prospect and even if he was, he'd be well below Kara and McGregor, even if neither may become centers once they get here.
BPA will probably have us getting a few centers anyways.
SeaOfBlue
The Passion That Unites Us All
- Aug 1, 2013
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By BPA do you mean skill wise or value wise? Because a slightly better winger may provide less value than a center or defenseman who is slightly worse.
Plus it's never a good idea to have a pool heavy on wingers but lacking at center and defense.
Mess
Global Moderator
Sadly that might be among the bottom 10 centre depths in the NHL among organizations, particularly after the pending UFA's depart.
An amateur scout is drafting to fill holes in the organization and in this case it looks like the Leafs are drafting to create them instead.
If a C and Winger are close in BPA rankings, always lean toward the C unless there are some real intangibles you like in the winger.
Yes, and they do often turn out to be BPA it seems. They don’t just pick a center because it’s the most valuable position and end up with a bunch of Gauthiers.
Projection of 17/18yr olds is not often accurate to determine if someone is going to be “slightly better” than another. You go with the higher skill upside every time or else you’ll find yourself disappointed more often than not.
Point taken. It seems like Nashville is really good at identifying who is a legit prospect at defence. Their list just keeps on rolling. Samuel Girard they traded to get Turris, Seth Jones they traded to get Johanson, and they still have Fabbro. Amazing. But as good as they are at finger d-men their centre depth is not great. I think Colton Sissons is their only drafted centre.
In fairness Nylander and Marner were drafted as potential centres so if you consider Kadri and Matthews it hasn't been that bad but the current depth situation is deplorable. Trades and UFA signings may change that in a hurry but we need to find some diamonds beyond the 1st round.
That’s perfectly fine. If you need a center and BPA is defence, you trade down to get your next center that is at BPA if logistics and value work out. Otherwise, you shouldn’t shoot yourself in the foot by drafting who you think will turn out to be a lesser player just because you think maybe you’ll need that position in 3yrs. You keep that good value coming of high skill players and then trade that value at a position of strength for your immediate needs IMO.
I don't think there's much chance of going into opening night with that as the breakdown. Glendening @ 4C wouldn't surprise me, and either Nylander is given the reigns or we bring someone in at 3C. One way or another the NHL situation is going to be fine. The system....
Firstly- Aaltonen+Gauthier need new contracts, and I don't see Miro coming back for the Marlies. Seems like a perfect 13th forward candidate capable of filling in anywhere but 1 or 2 C. Beyond that we have three guys- Brooks, Joshua, and McGregor. McGregor is progressing nicely, I'm expecting a big final junior season but he doesn't factor into the pro picture. Joshua I don't know enough to comment on. That leaves Brooks as our only waiver exempt C on the Marlies, and he's been disappointing. Not ready to write him off but also it's not looking like he's anywhere near call up ready.
Conclusions
1.Bringing Aaltonen back or signing a 13th forward that can play C is a must
2. Bringing in a waiver exempt C to the Marlies would be nice.
3. Drafting a C or two to join Mcgregor in the longer term pool would be a good idea, but
A. the draft isn't going to fix our 2nd tier pro C depth next season unless it's a borderline NHL ready Euro or American, or double overage CHL pick
B. with Matthews/Kadri/Nylander(or ???) in the fold it's not like C is a long term weakness at the NHL level.
4. 2+3A would suggest that we dip into the UD UFA pool, whether it be NCAA, Euro, or CHL
BPA as always
@Mess give up this sad little grudge against Hunter, Dermott is looking like a better pick than Merkley, move on.
ManosArriba
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- Oct 24, 2017
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It's more likely that they fill those spots with more overpaid bum vets than let the kids come up. If Johnsson gets brought up he will likely get the Soshnikov/Leivo treatment.
ULF_55
Moderator
Draft the best center and just, "We were surprised such a good center was available at that time. We had him as the BPA in the draft at any position!"
- Feb 9, 2007
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Hopefully the BPA during at least one if not two of our top 60 picks is a centre.
It's more likely that they fill those spots with more overpaid bum vets than let the kids come up. If Johnsson gets brought up he will likely get the Soshnikov/Leivo treatment.
Yes... I can see your point. The current Leafs front office has made so many mistakes... it's really unacceptable isn't it?
Yes... I can see your point. The current Leafs front office has made so many mistakes... it's really unacceptable isn't it?
nuck
Schrodingers Cat
- Aug 18, 2005
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Ah the BPA discussion again.
So when we say BPA are we referring to likelihood of playing in the NHL or likelihood of being a star? 6A or 8D? No boom bust guys? When the Leafs traded down for Dermott it was likely because they saw a few similar prospects with little to choose between the them, rather than he was a great hidden talent absolutely nobody else knew about. There is BPA by 1-5% and there is tangible BPA (Rielly vs Koekkoek or Galchenyuk vs Grigorenko). If we are going to discuss BPA vs need we should agree on how much bias the "need" people are actually suggesting.
Need is a factor for every team should at least consider. In an extreme example, if you have all small skilled danglers, or all big grinders with limited explosive offense, at some point the identicals are blocking each other in your system (and the road blocked guys can't show their stuff enough to have strong trade value) so you end up trading for need and being squeezed. They have to decide between highest floor and highest ceiling too, so how is that metric so different from need? We can all agree that clubs don't always go for highest upside on every pick so BPA then becomes some kind of mix between absolute star potential, and chance of at least being a pro. Is BPA the 6A or the 8D? I am sure that varies from team to team, especially factoring intangibles like how deep is their team and how good has their drafting been the last few years? Some teams can afford to swing for the fences while others will need to save their jobs or at least get some more home grown talent in their system.
Talented defensemen with size will always be in the highest demand so their market value will make them more valuable than a similar forward with the same chance of success. A team that has high end young talent at every position salted throughout their system can go absolute BPA with any pick but that isn't most of the clubs in the league. Some people seem to imply the failure to take the 80% guy on your scouting sheet over the 79% guy is going to somehow make your club weaker. There is only a 20% chance any of these guys succeed so how many years of drafting would be required for a statistically significant deficit? Except for the top few picks the scouts are wrong almost all off the time. Compare draft position with success in most years and its clear.
If we have Suzuki, Valimaki, Foote and Kostim all there at 17 the scouting lists available to us said they are all very comparable, decent picks. They are all BPA depending on who you ask so throwing a dart is as likely to get us the best guy as any other means. For BPA to mean anything, the first thing is, there has to be a significant difference, not a decimal point, because every scout involved for every team has seen much better guys selected five picks after their BPA, every year.
The Leafs selected Dermott ahead of Aho. Were they drafting for position or BPA? They took Valiev ahead of Brayden Point. What was their thinking there because the chances of being an impact player always favored Point who lacked NHL size or he would have been a 1st round pick?
Skill level and physical package are both considered in every selection. The trick is not to miss the necessary balance, plus to have the luck that your prediction on the future development is accurate. If Karlsson stays 5'10" 170, he would have had a much different career. Alone among the major sports, the NHL has to consider growth between 17 and 20 as a huge factor in most drafting.
BPA is different from club to club and from scout to scout within an organization. Not an exact science.
Liljegren is tied as the 3rd highest AHL scoring defensemen in league history, with Hampus Lindholm with 11 points. Lindholm had 11 in 44, while Liljegren has 11 in 25.
Oliver Kylington had 12 in 47 to be 2nd all-time, and Vyacheslav Voynov had 23 in 61 games during his 18 year old season.
Oliver Kylington had 12 in 47 to be 2nd all-time, and Vyacheslav Voynov had 23 in 61 games during his 18 year old season.
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