Projecting the 2020-21 Line Up and Cap Hit (After 1st Year w/ Big 3 Extensions)

[AppsSyl]

Leafs cap picture actually looks pretty decent (from what I can tell) after the first year the big 3’s contracts take effect (when we lose Marleau, Horton, Martin and possibly have lost Gardiner). In the system with very realistic shots of being in the 2020-21 line up who are not currently full timers you have: Kapanen, Leivo, Korshkov, Grundstrom, Gauthier/Brooks, Dermott, Liljegren, Borgman, Rosen. None of those players are seen as long shots to be NHLers in my opinion. If Borgman or Rosen don’t cut it, we will have other options for the 3rd pair that are cheap.

A Possible 2020-21 Line Up

(based on what we have in the system, and assuming we don’t resign JVR, Bozak, Komarov or Gardiner, and absent of hypothetical signings/trades)

I only inserted those who I feel will most likely actually make the roster.

Korshkov (0.925) – Matthews (11) – Marner (8.5)
Grundstrom (0.925) – Nylander (8.5) – Brown (4)
Hyman (2.25) – Kadri (4.5) – Kapanen (?)
Leivo (1.5) – Gauthier (1) – Brooks (0.925)

Reilly (5) – Zaitsev (4.5)
Dermott (0.865) – Liljegren (0.925)
Borgman (?) – Rosen (?)
(maybe Rasanen or Nielsen are bottom pair options if they are ready)

Andersen (5)
Woll (0.865)

Total $61.18 million + 1.2 (Kessel)

The cap hit for this line up + Kessel is $62.38 million and does not include the salaries for Kapanen, Borgman or Rosen, because I have no clue what a likely salary for them is coming off their ELCs, because of there is not enough to go on.

I went on the high side ($28 million) for the big 3, and ballparked Brown at 4, and Leivo and Gauthier at 1.5 and 1 million.

As you can see we still have a lot of cap room to play with to make a splash via trade, or free agency for a top flight forward or defenseman to add to the line up.

There would also be ample room to resign Gardiner.

Click to read more...

 

[TML Dynasty]

Nice

 

[Canada4Gold]

I did the 19-20 one a while back and got this

Marleau(6.25) - Matthews(~10) - Marner(~7)
Kapanen(~3.5) - Nylander(~6.5) - Bracco(0.842)
Grundstrom(0.925) - Kadri(4.5) - Brown(~3)
Martin(2.5) - Goat/Brooks(~1) - Hyman(~2.25)
Leivo/Soshnikov/Johnsson/Rychel(~1)

Rielly(5) - Zaitsev(4.5)
Gardiner(~6) - Liljegren(0.925)
Dermott(0.863) - Carrick(1.5)
Nielsen(0.697), Borgman/Rosen/Valiev/Etc(0.925)

Andersen(5)
Backup(1)

Kessel(1.2), Horton(5.3)

82.177 Cap Space Used, really 76.877 if we ignore Horton. Though honestly I believe Marleau is going to be Datsyuk'd in that final year and that he's already agreed to it.

If we're going to transition that into 20-21 it becomes much tougher to estimate because all the guys who are just having their ELC's start right now will be needing new contracts that year. Which means Dermott, Bracco, Grundstrom, Nielsen, Brooks, maybe even Korshkov if he comes over next summer as he would have a 2 year ELC. Rosen and Borgman would also have new contracts which you have noted. It's easy to plug in 0.925 or less for these guys, they could earn 3 or 4 per. Leivo is also into his UFA years at that point 1.5 could be low. And if they sign Brown to only 3 years he'd be up and looking for 5+ at that point so that will have a big impact.

It's plenty doable as long as you have young prospects coming in to fill the holes for cheap, but projecting it is tough because it's so far off even the good still prospects we have you have no clue what their number will be 3 or 4 years down the road. I would also want Gardiner resigned but it's tough, I think he's good enough that he won't kill you but it's the 3rd line, 2nd pair type of guy earning too much that kills a team cap wise like that. We can't have anymore Matt Martin type of deals.

 

[egd27]

We're going to try and predict the cap 3 years out now?

Time to shut it down until training camp.

 

[ZINFINITY16]

Would kadri andersen rielly and gardiner not be the only players with more than 4 years NHL experience? Seems fairly unlikely to me to have such a young team, regardless of how good the potential looks on paper.

 

[AppsSyl]

We're going to try and predict the cap 3 years out now?

Time to shut it down until training camp.

I find your comment ironic given the hashtag under your username (#freethebigpicture), when looking at the big picture is what I was trying to do. There is worry with some and debate about whether we can afford the big 3 and how that will effect our ability to sign others, so I was curious how much of an actual problem it appeared to be. You don't have to be ignorant.

 

[AppsSyl]

Would kadri andersen rielly and gardiner not be the only players with more than 4 years NHL experience? Seems fairly unlikely to me to have such a young team, regardless of how good the potential looks on paper.

I am sure that we would sign or trade for couple of players that would be in the line up ahead of some of those guys. My point was that we have some wiggle room to sign those guys, or another decent piece on the blueline.

 

[Suntouchable13]

I find your comment ironic given the hashtag under your username (#freethebigpicture), when looking at the big picture is what I was trying to do. There is worry with some and debate about whether we can afford the big 3 and how that will effect our ability to sign others, so I was curious how much of an actual problem it appeared to be. You don't have to be ignorant.

I am not worried about not keeping the likes of Hyman, Brown, etc because the big 3 is expensive.

 

[egd27]

I find your comment ironic given the hashtag under your username (#freethebigpicture), when looking at the big picture is what I was trying to do. There is worry with some and debate about whether we can afford the big 3 and how that will effect our ability to sign others, so I was curious how much of an actual problem it appeared to be. You don't have to be ignorant.

Yea, you're right....I have nothing to add so I shouldn't ave posted.

Go ahead and try and predict not only who will be on the team but how much they will each (yes.....each) will be making.

 

[AppsSyl]

Yea, you're right....I have nothing to add so I shouldn't ave posted.

Go ahead and try and predict not only who will be on the team but how much they will each (yes.....each) will be making.

Half of the salaries are already known (Cap Friendly) or would be ELCs, so most of the salaries are not guesswork. The other salaries were ballparked high to try and see if they would fit under the cap. The purpose of the exercise is to see roughly where we would be cap wise, and to see if it was feasible to pay Matthews, Marner and Nylander big money and still be able to ice a decent team around them.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Half of the salaries are already known (Cap Friendly) or would be ELCs, so most of the salaries are not guesswork. The other salaries were ballparked high to try and see if they would fit under the cap. The purpose of the exercise is to see roughly where we would be cap wise, and to see if it was feasible to pay Matthews, Marner and Nylander big money and still be able to ice a decent team around them.

6 are known(Andersen, Kadri, Rielly, Zaitsev and Liljegren), and that's only assuming Liljegren doesn't play 10 games in the NHL this year. Woll and maybe Korshkov are the only ELC's. I agree that it's not to difficult to see that it's doable, but a bunch of these sub million numbers you've used could easily be 3 or 4(Grundstrom, Brooks, Dermott, potentially Leivo). Depending on how they work the term with Brown he could be up to 5(if they go 3 years now then his 3rd contract would start in this year) Add that into the 3 unknown salaries of Kapanen, Borgman, Rosen, and 3 other extras spots, and Gardiner that lots of room has shruken very very quickly.

 

[TML Dynasty]

Half of the salaries are already known (Cap Friendly) or would be ELCs, so most of the salaries are not guesswork. The other salaries were ballparked high to try and see if they would fit under the cap. The purpose of the exercise is to see roughly where we would be cap wise, and to see if it was feasible to pay Matthews, Marner and Nylander big money and still be able to ice a decent team around them.

ya I did something similar on CapFriendly when we got Marleau. I wanted to see how pinched we would be in the 3rd year with a few educated guesses on salaries. Obviously we don't know exactly but I like the discussion. Egd27 makes me laugh though so I torn.....

 

[Duke16]

2020-21 (4 years from now)

Yegor Korshkov - Auston Matthews - Willy Nylander
Carl Grundstrom - Nazem Kadri - Mitch Marner
Andreas Johnsson - Adam Brooks - Connor Brown
Vladimir Bobylev - Dakota Joshua - Zach Hyman

Morgan Rielly - Timothy Liljegren
Travis Dermott - Andreas Borgman
Andrew Nielsen - Nikita Zaitsev

Frederik Andersen
Joseph Woll

 

[Cams]

Yea, you're right....I have nothing to add so I shouldn't ave posted.

Go ahead and try and predict not only who will be on the team but how much they will each (yes.....each) will be making.

Agreed - an exercise like this is silly. How can you factor in a lineup for a team for 20-21 (3 years from now) when there are just too many variables. I get people are bored and anxious for the upcoming season. Cap could stagnate......would if a guy like Tavares comes on board, etc. But especially projecting a cap hit when who knows what happens with these guys....There is no way it's just going be "guys in the system" filling voids.

 

[biotk]

The cap hit for this line up + Kessel is $62.38 million and does not include the salaries for Kapanen, Borgman or Rosen, because I have no clue what a likely salary for them is coming off their ELCs, because of there is not enough to go on.

I went on the high side ($28 million) for the big 3, and ballparked Brown at 4, and Leivo and Gauthier at 1.5 and 1 million.

As you can see we still have a lot of cap room to play with to make a splash via trade, or free agency for a top flight forward or defenseman to add to the line up.

There would also be ample room to resign Gardiner.

I am more doubtful. Starting with your outline, let's assume that we have Kapanen, Rosen, and Borgman (or their equivalents) signed for 4, 2, and 2. Plus we still need to fill out the extra 3 spots on the roster and let's assume that they cost 3 total (which is slightly less than was the case last year). Now you are up to 73.4 mil, which should still be a decent amount of space to pick up 1-year rentals, but space will not be there for the long-term.

You have Liljegren and Dermott in the top 4, and they would likely be coming off their ELCs for the following year, so the Leafs would need to make sure that space will become available - Maybe 10 between the two of them which would add 8.2+ and you are at 81.6M. And you can't expect to roster your 4 LWs for a total of 5.5M for very long.

I am not saying that they can't resign someone like Gardiner - my guess is that they will spend the next 2 years deciding if some combination of Liljegren, Dermott, Rosen, Borgman etc will make their D strong enough to part ways will him.

Bringing in expensive UFAs on lengthy contracts - I just don't see it happening going forward. Picking up short-term rentals to fill a hole for that year's playoffs is the more likely route a couple years down the road, IMO.