Rumor: Progress on Mantha deal being made - shorter term than anticipated?

[FMichael]

As a rebuilding team you don’t rush out to give a long term contract to an unproven 26 year old. I’m happy with 3 years @ 4.75M-5.5M

Mantha probably isn’t seeing the dollar amount at a longer term from Yzerman so they’re settling with a prove it contract and it makes sense for both sides. Mantha just doesn’t have the resume to justify 6M+ long term

Thank God we don’t have a guy like Dubas as our GM.

 

[jkutswings]

HSJ article today:

Detroit Red Wings got through NHL draft, free agency. So what's next?

Key Points:
* Likely a shortened season again, possibly as low as 48 games
* Bottom 7 teams get a head start on training camp, likely in December
* Bertuzzi likely to be $4.5-5M AAV
* Mantha listed around $5M AAV

I'd be surprised on that last one, unless it's a 1 year deal. But we'll see.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I think slightly differently than most here.

I like shorter term deals on players... we always get a much better cap hit.
Everyone is worried about players walking when they hit UFA, because then a player finally can leverage other GM's. Yes that's true. But we should wait until they have that leverage to pay them too much. Don't pay them too much now, just to avoid that choice later.

I have a feeling we are going to get Mantha and Bertuzzi signed for numbers much below where people think they will be paid now.
I think Mantha's salary starts with a 5, and Bertuzzi short term starts with a 3, or long term (4-5 yrs) starts with a 4.

If everything goes well for us.. Detroit should be getting good by then, and these players will want to stay in a winning organization. I am not worried about people walking, I'm worried that we pay people too much on long term deals that they don't deserve. And I don't think anyone on our team is a 6.5-7M dollar player. They are all players getting more playing time than they deserve because we have so few options.

Agree with a ton of this. For me Larkin is worth 7 million, we are winning in his deal. I think Mantha is worth around there but I understand playing hardball. Realistically in terms of your plan though, if we fall short of being good enough to want them to stay he must be shipped at the deadline in the next few years if he isn't locked in long-term. We cannot have him walk for nothing.

 

[FMichael]

Agree with a ton of this. For me Larkin is worth 7 million, we are winning in his deal. I think Mantha is worth around there but I understand playing hardball. Realistically in terms of your plan though, if we fall short of being good enough to want them to stay he must be shipped at the deadline in the next few years if he isn't locked in long-term. We cannot have him walk for nothing.

Larkin might be worth $7 million today, but he got a solid deal when he signed a few seasons ago.

IMHO Mantha is nowhere near $7 million when considering the obvious.

I’m not concerned about Bert - it’ll be Mantha that’s a challenge for Yzerman.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Larkin might be worth $7 million today, but he got a solid deal when he signed a few seasons ago.

IMHO Mantha is nowhere near $7 million when considering the obvious.

I’m not concerned about Bert - it’ll be Mantha that’s a challenge for Yzerman.

I'm not all that concerned with Bert either.

If Mantha shreds it the next couple years as we all hope he does and he is certainly capable of, the thing is you're not getting him for 7 million anymore at that point. If he banks 40 goal seasons in the next two he becomes a 9+ million dollar winger, even as a 28/29 year old assuming we have bounced back from Covid, that part is harder to pick but certainly what Mo will be banking on by singing a shorter deal.

Which is the give and take here of why some are interested in locking up Mantha long-term. I get the he hasn't proven anything crowd in terms of I want a full season. What we do know is in his last two partial seasons and his last whatever 80 games so close to a season he has put up big time first line numbers both production wise and play driving wise on a freaking awful team and he is the one forward that doesn't look like crap when he is away from Larkin.

It is a dangerous game of chance on him that we are playing. I can see Stevie doing it, but in two or three years when he is walking into UFA we have to get a decent return for him if he has blown up, which I am one of the posters that thinks that is about to happen. We are getting more talent up and around him now with the waive of younger players. The offense isn't going to be all on Larkin and Mantha to generate which it mostly has been since Z left and outside of AA caring for a season. The increase in talent should help both guys a lot and actually increase their production. I think it will actually push Bertuzzi down the lineup shortly.

 

[jkutswings]

I think Mantha is too streaky to ever score 40 goals, so I'd happily take my chances with a shorter deal.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I think Mantha is too streaky to ever score 40 goals, so I'd happily take my chances with a shorter deal.

I mean he’s been pacing 30 while missing large chunks due to injury in the middle of seasons. Yes they are often his own fault to a certain extent, but what does Mantha look like if he plays these recent seasons uninterrupted and not breaking stride and creating rust in his own game?

His streaky nature faded the past two years, and began having sustained impact. If he can be that player and then toss in some heater’s where he can’t miss, 40 is not a stretch. Especially with how horrendous our powerplay has looked at times, there’s just untapped scoring potential.

 

[Hen Kolland]

The whole back and forth discussion on Mantha’s value is interesting, and I know this stuff would never make it out publicly, but if Custance was able to do a piece where certain anonymous front office members were willing to state what price they’d be willing to pay for some young players in the NHL, I’d love to see it.

I tend to think that people in the league might value him more than the average fan would estimate just based on all of the things that point towards value.

He drives possession numbers, on a horrible team. His defensive game isn’t a weakness. His pure shooting ability has to be top 5 in the league, imo. Controllable as an RFA for a little bit. His contract will be suppressed. Elite size, elite skating at his size. I’d love an “expert” opinion.

 

[jaster]

I don't see 40 goals in Mantha. He's just not that high level. He's a good goal-scoring winger who can create and obviously meshes easily with other skill. But he's not consistent nor dominant enough to get to 40 goals imo. If he stays healthy he should continue to flirt with 30 goals and maybe if he has a career year he could go 35+ and sniff 40, but I'd bet against him ever getting there.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I don't see 40 goals in Mantha. He's just not that high level. He's a good goal-scoring winger who can create and obviously meshes easily with other skill. But he's not consistent nor dominant enough to get to 40 goals imo. If he stays healthy he should continue to flirt with 30 goals and maybe if he has a career year he could go 35+ and sniff 40, but I'd bet against him ever getting there.

If he doesn’t stay healthy he’s going to “flirt” with 30. He had 25 In just his second full year unhealthy...

 

[ricky0034]

I think slightly differently than most here.

I like shorter term deals on players... we always get a much better cap hit.
Everyone is worried about players walking when they hit UFA, because then a player finally can leverage other GM's. Yes that's true. But we should wait until they have that leverage to pay them too much. Don't pay them too much now, just to avoid that choice later.

I have a feeling we are going to get Mantha and Bertuzzi signed for numbers much below where people think they will be paid now.
I think Mantha's salary starts with a 5, and Bertuzzi short term starts with a 3, or long term (4-5 yrs) starts with a 4.

If everything goes well for us.. Detroit should be getting good by then, and these players will want to stay in a winning organization. I am not worried about people walking, I'm worried that we pay people too much on long term deals that they don't deserve. And I don't think anyone on our team is a 6.5-7M dollar player. They are all players getting more playing time than they deserve because we have so few options.

I see it as do I want the player still around in 5-6 years or whatever or not

if the answer is yes then a short term deal does nothing,doesn't really have anything to do with being worried about them walking(although I guess preventing that is a side benefit)

but getting a smaller cap hit is literally pointless right now,i'd much rather save a bit later on when it might actually matter,the cap will go up again eventually anyways so it's kinda hard for me to envision someone like Mantha not being worth 6-7m or whatever towards the end of a long term deal barring a career ending injury or something

 

[WaW]

Not that I'm necessarily advocating for this, but has anyone ever pondered about what Holland might give us if we gave him Mantha for Neal +++? I mean, look at what he gave us for Athanasiou, lol.

I know during a rebuild you need to make the decision at a precise point to keep your skill, otherwise you end up becoming Buffalo, but would it really bother many people if he was the final skill guy we moved to absolutely stuff the pipeline?

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

I don't see 40 goals in Mantha. He's just not that high level. He's a good goal-scoring winger who can create and obviously meshes easily with other skill. But he's not consistent nor dominant enough to get to 40 goals imo. If he stays healthy he should continue to flirt with 30 goals and maybe if he has a career year he could go 35+ and sniff 40, but I'd bet against him ever getting there.

Give him a playmaker, he'll hit 40.

 

[jkutswings]

Give him a playmaker, he'll hit 40.

If he stays healthy.
And doesn't take games off.
Or pick fights.

At this point I kinda think Mantha is what he is - a talented guy who pots 25 to 30 goals and still looks like he has another level to reach, but never quite reaches it.

I mean sure, if you plunked him next to McDavid, he'd have a shot at 40. But does anybody really believe the Wings will come away from a draft lottery with a generational 1C? Or land one via trade or free agency?

In this town, with his injury history and the most likely playmakers he will be around (Larkin or marginally higher), I think 30 goals is about the best production Mantha will ever achieve, at least with the Wings.

And that's not an awful thing. Just a pragmatic level of expectations when building a roster.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Mantha will be 26.5 yrs old @ start of '20-'21. I think 5 yrs would work best, then trade him in his last year for a team need(by then we'll have plenty of better options in-house & UFA/trade routes).

We'll likely be in our SC window in 5 yrs, but a still in prime/healthy productive AntMan going to any WConf. team or EConf Wild Card team for a (younger C/D) could be a coup. Both teams get PO help, but we reap the benefit of a longer term player(s). Trade target could be someone that the opposing team can't afford to sign, but still need help for their playoff push, especially goal-scoring/on the wing. Or maybe Mantha fits their team better than (X) player(s).

 

[KasperTheGrittyGhost]

Kenny Daniels was on the Sportsnet Hockey Central podcast today and said he believes the club is looking for a long term deal with Mantha. That was what Mantha said originally at the beginning of the “offseason.”

I still think a 4-6 year deal at +\- 6M AAV is in both parties best interest.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Kenny Daniels was on the Sportsnet Hockey Central podcast today and said he believes the club is looking for a long term deal with Mantha. That was what Mantha said originally at the beginning of the “offseason.”

I still think a 4-6 year deal at +\- 6M AAV is in both parties best interest.

I know one of the Hab fans mentioned in a interview with Mantha there in Montreal. And had mentioned purchasing his home in Bloomfield Hills, And that contract talks were going good and thought a deal would get done some time this month. And he said that it was definitely a long term deal.

 

[GreatGordie9]

I know one of the Hab fans mentioned in a interview with Mantha there in Montreal. And had mentioned purchasing his home in Bloomfield Hills, And that contract talks were going good and thought a deal would get done some time this month. And he said that it was definitely a long term deal.

I think it will be a 4 year at 6mill av

 

[BinCookin]

I see it as do I want the player still around in 5-6 years or whatever or not

if the answer is yes then a short term deal does nothing,doesn't really have anything to do with being worried about them walking(although I guess preventing that is a side benefit)

but getting a smaller cap hit is literally pointless right now,i'd much rather save a bit later on when it might actually matter,the cap will go up again eventually anyways so it's kinda hard for me to envision someone like Mantha not being worth 6-7m or whatever towards the end of a long term deal barring a career ending injury or something

I would argue if Zadina and Raymond make the NHL and work as planned... they are both on line 1, lowering Mantha's minutes, and thus his stats. Do I think Mantha is the top line winger in 4-6 years.... I don't know, and I think there is a fair chance we drafted 2 better wingers already.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I would argue if Zadina and Raymond make the NHL and work as planned... they are both on line 1, lowering Mantha's minutes, and thus his stats. Do I think Mantha is the top line winger in 4-6 years.... I don't know, and I think there is a fair chance we drafted 2 better wingers already.

L1&2 wingers could all get 18min, L3 15min, L4 9min. Since the Larkin line works so well, let 'em stay together, regardless if they're the L1 or L2. Though we'll have lots of options to mix & match too, which we should as well. If JV develops into that 50+ pt 2-way 2C, give him the 2 younger wingers, they'll form chemistry as the next wave & it'll keep their bridge contracts team-friendly/reasonable too.

 

[ricky0034]

I would argue if Zadina and Raymond make the NHL and work as planned... they are both on line 1, lowering Mantha's minutes, and thus his stats. Do I think Mantha is the top line winger in 4-6 years.... I don't know, and I think there is a fair chance we drafted 2 better wingers already.

but if Mantha's good enough to be on the top line in 5-6 years as a long term contract nears its end he'd be worth substantially more than 6-7 million

even if he's just a good second line Winger at that point he'll have earned every penny of that contract,that'll be second line money by then anyways

 

[MBH]

It's going to be a little while before Zadina/Raymond overtake Mantha - if they ever do.

 

[jaster]

If he doesn’t stay healthy he’s going to “flirt” with 30. He had 25 In just his second full year unhealthy...

Sure. "Flirt" is not the part of the post I was trying to draw attention to. I'll put it more succinctly. His goal-scoring rate that year and last year was 30.5 and 30.6 goals-per-82-games. So, if healthy, he should be "around" 30 goals.

 

[jkutswings]

It's going to be a little while before Zadina/Raymond overtake Mantha - if they ever do.

In 3 years I expect both to have better PPG than Mantha.

 

[MBH]

In 3 years I expect both to have better PPG than Mantha.

Fair enough. But 3 years qualifies as a little while, in my book.
But truthfully, I'm not convinced either guy makes it to Mantha's PPG from last year.
I suspect Mantha could have difficulty reaching that level again.