Friedman: Preds only untouchables are Josi, Ellis and Rinne

[North Cole]

I'd be thrilled if the Oilers could get Arvidsson, he would be a great complimentary player, though does have some health concerns.

 

[Bevans]

AVs could offer

Graves + Compher + Donskoi

for

Johansen (no retention)

Pardon? People are discussing this like it's possible? Why would Colorado trade any of these players for Johansen straight up? He has one of the worst contracts in the NHL and his game is terribly suited for 3C behind a much better Mac and Kadri.

The only thing keeping Johansen relevant is his contract. Johansen-Duchene is dollar for dollar the worst top 2 C combo in the league. The only way to escape them is buy-outs or paying other teams to help Nashville out.

 

[Patagonia]

Pardon? People are discussing this like it's possible? Why would Colorado trade any of these players for Johansen straight up? He has one of the worst contracts in the NHL and his game is terribly suited for 3C behind a much better Mac and Kadri.

The only thing keeping Johansen relevant is his contract. Johansen-Duchene is dollar for dollar the worst top 2 C combo in the league. The only way to escape them is buy-outs or paying other teams to help Nashville out.

Proposal does make sense for the AVs.

3C remains a weakness and shifting Kadri (slowing) for 1 season would fill that role. Newhook is allowed more time to develop or join the team within 2 years. Moving Compher/Donskoi with existing cheaper options waiting for an opportunity in Bowers/Kaut. Graves is the most valued, but would be lost without any return in the expansion draft. It'll cost $8.2M overall spread for the next 4 years. Kadri not resigning would save at least another $4.5M. Saad is also unlikely to return to save another $5M. Financially, less difference than you realize.

Johansen might not be a 1C, but will be surrounded by better and faster wingers complemented by some of the most skilled offensive DMen. He is more likely to rebound and AVs become even younger.

Landy - Mack - Rants
Bura - Johansen - Kaut
Jost - Kadri/Newhook - Nischushkin
??? - Bowers - ???

Byram - Makar
Girard - Timmins
Toews - Barron

 

[Soundgarden]

Pardon? People are discussing this like it's possible? Why would Colorado trade any of these players for Johansen straight up? He has one of the worst contracts in the NHL and his game is terribly suited for 3C behind a much better Mac and Kadri.

The only thing keeping Johansen relevant is his contract. Johansen-Duchene is dollar for dollar the worst top 2 C combo in the league. The only way to escape them is buy-outs or paying other teams to help Nashville out.

Yeah, I don't think Johansen is as bad as you think he is. He's overpaid by 2 million, and signed for way too long, but he's not a scrub, especially on a playoff team.

 

[Patagonia]

Yeah, I don't think Johansen is as bad as you think he is. He's overpaid by 2 million, and signed for way too long, but he's not a scrub, especially on a playoff team.

Johansen is a streaky player offensively, but solid defensively.

Definitely not a 1C and likely closer to 2C/3C role. I believe he is overpaid by $3M-$4M per. AVs or other playoff contenders could offer less productive or replaceable players to make a deal work.

 

[Bevans]

Yeah, I don't think Johansen is as bad as you think he is. He's overpaid by 2 million, and signed for way too long, but he's not a scrub, especially on a playoff team.

He is not worth 6 million. 32 points in last 82 games. He's been regression since 2014. He's a big guy with poor conditioning whose game is not aging well. If he were a free agent he would not get a 4 year 6 million dollar contract. He'd be getting a one-year prove-it contract.

 

[Bevans]

Proposal does make sense for the AVs.

3C remains a weakness and shifting Kadri (slowing) for 1 season would fill that role. Newhook is allowed more time to develop or join the team within 2 years. Moving Compher/Donskoi with existing cheaper options waiting for an opportunity in Bowers/Kaut. Graves is the most valued, but would be lost without any return in the expansion draft. It'll cost $8.2M overall spread for the next 4 years. Kadri not resigning would save at least another $4.5M. Saad is also unlikely to return to save another $5M. Financially, less difference than you realize.

Johansen might not be a 1C, but will be surrounded by better and faster wingers complemented by some of the most skilled offensive DMen. He is more likely to rebound and AVs become even younger.

Landy - Mack - Rants
Bura - Johansen - Kaut
Jost - Kadri/Newhook - Nischushkin
??? - Bowers - ???

Byram - Makar
Girard - Timmins
Toews - Barron

I don't really have any response to all of this. None of that justifies Colorado taking on a terrible contract of a regressing player for 4 more years (for free, let alone paying assets for it).

Besides Johansen would play with worse players in Colorado than as 1-C in Nashville. Forsberg and Arvidsson are better than Bura and Kaut, it's ridiculous that I even need to write that.

 

[Patagonia]

I don't really have any response to all of this. None of that justifies Colorado taking on a terrible contract of a regressing player for 4 more years (for free, let alone paying assets for it).

Besides Johansen would play with worse players in Colorado than as 1-C in Nashville. Forsberg and Arvidsson are better than Bura and Kaut, it's ridiculous that I even need to write that.

Johansen is not a 1C, but those are the players he's overmatched against. Maybe if Duchene played better he could have less pressure to carry the team. Dropping him into a less pressured 2C role would be ideal. AVs wingers Rants, Landy, Bura and Saad (assuming he resigns) are inter-changeable, faster and far superior than NSH.

 

[TK]

He is not worth 6 million. 32 points in last 82 games. He's been regression since 2014. He's a big guy with poor conditioning whose game is not aging well. If he were a free agent he would not get a 4 year 6 million dollar contract. He'd be getting a one-year prove-it contract.

He had 64 in 80 games right before the "32 in 82" (It's actually 45 points in his last 84 games this season and last) and he's pretty great in the postseason. People are pretty quick to write him off after an 82 game stretch where the entire Preds team minus 1 or 2 guys have been awful.

 

[Soundgarden]

He is not worth 6 million. 32 points in last 82 games. He's been regression since 2014. He's a big guy with poor conditioning whose game is not aging well. If he were a free agent he would not get a 4 year 6 million dollar contract. He'd be getting a one-year prove-it contract.

Regressed since '14? No. Maybe, if you just count goals or points, but even then since '14 he's had 46, 47 and 50 assist seasons and he's had three PPG post seasons.

I don't really have any response to all of this. None of that justifies Colorado taking on a terrible contract of a regressing player for 4 more years (for free, let alone paying assets for it).

Besides Johansen would play with worse players in Colorado than as 1-C in Nashville. Forsberg and Arvidsson are better than Bura and Kaut, it's ridiculous that I even need to write that.

You don't think Johansen would bring up Bura and Kaut? Forsberg and Arvidsson are 30+ goal scorers, but Johansen's the one who's been dishing them the puck through it all.

 

[elitepete]

Rinne untouchable lmao

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If Nashville retained $2m what would you want the Avs to add to that package?

I think that would basically ruin the whole idea, tbh. Suddenly we pay $12.57M for those 2 years? No, that's not going to work.

 

[Big Muddy]

I think the NHL might need to introduce one compliance buyout every five seasons. It'll make things interesting as a whole because I imagine teams will make trades so other teams will use one that hasn't been used yet. Reason I say that is because there are too many stupid contracts in the league holding teams back, and the Duchene contract is one of many Nashville contracts that need to be bought out because no way they'd be able to trade that contract.

But also, I imagine nobody wants Rinne as he's getting to his final days and will likely retire a Nashville Predator.

Given that owners pay for the buy-out, I'm thinking that many owners aren't that keen. And given the tough COVID economic times, I doubt this concept would get much support. Fans (of cap constrained teams) talked a lot about it before the recent modifications to the CBA, but it went nowhere.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Would love Ekholm or Arvidsson. Would never be able to fit them under the cap however, even if Kerfoot was included.

 

[Roof Daddy]

What would Preds fans think about this deal....

To EDM: Ekholm

To NSH: EDM 2021 1st, Klefbom, 2022 Cond. Pick (2nd rounder if Klefbom never plays)

If Klefbom plays again in 2021-22 season its a landslide win for the Preds, as they get an equal caliber LHD as they have in Ekholm and get a 1st (and Klefbom is signed through 22-23 season).

If he doesn't play, they still end up with a 1st and a 2nd, which is maybe slightly less than what they'd get in a bidding war this year.

I'd have to think the gamble would be worth it, especially for a team like the Preds who still have the pieces to be a competitive team and need more of a re-tool than anything.

For the Oil, I think Ekholm is the perfect guy to partner with Bouchard.

Thoughts?

 

[TK]

Would love Ekholm or Arvidsson. Would never be able to fit them under the cap however, even if Kerfoot was included.

Not sure if the Preds would have any interest in him, but Kerfoot's cap number is only 250K lower than Ekholm's. Kerfoot is 3.5 per, Ekholm 3.75

 

[Bevans]

Regressed since '14? No. Maybe, if you just count goals or points, but even then since '14 he's had 46, 47 and 50 assist seasons and he's had three PPG post seasons.



You don't think Johansen would bring up Bura and Kaut? Forsberg and Arvidsson are 30+ goal scorers, but Johansen's the one who's been dishing them the puck through it all.

I guess time will tell. I see a guy in a massive decline that has one of the worst contracts in the NHL. I can't see what you see no matter how much I squint and overlook the last few years.

 

[TK]

I guess time will tell. I see a guy in a massive decline that has one of the worst contracts in the NHL. I can't see what you see no matter how much I squint and overlook the last few years.

Last few years? Like I said, he had 64 points in 80 games in his last full season. 45 in 84 this season and last. Not great by any stretch but very far from "32 in 82", wherever you pulled that from.

 

[Bevans]

Last few years? Like I said, he had 64 points in 80 games in his last full season. 45 in 84 this season and last. Not great by any stretch, but very far from "32 in 82", wherever you pulled that from.

I pulled it from his last 82 season regular-season games. He used to be a guy who drove the play, shot the puck, hit guys. Now he's not. Maybe He'll rediscover his game. I don't think he will. He's a perimeter set up guy.

 

[Richard88]

I think that would basically ruin the whole idea, tbh. Suddenly we pay $12.57M for those 2 years? No, that's not going to work.

How about Johansen ($2m retained) for Graves + Compher + futures?

$2m + $3.16m + $3.5m = $8.66m for 2 years (just slightly higher than what Johansen makes now), and then $2m for the last 2 years (a fraction of Johansen's $8m).

 

[TK]

I pulled it from his last 82 season regular-season games. He used to be a guy who drove the play, shot the puck, hit guys. Now he's not. Maybe He'll rediscover his game. I don't think he will. He's a perimeter set up guy.

Still way off. He had 36 in 68 last season, 4 pts in 11 or 12 games this season at the time you posted. And he is without question a set-up guy now, but he isn't a perimeter player. I don't think you've watched him very much, if at all. You're not even doing a very good job stat watching...

Also, he's hit more often or at least as much in Nashville as he did in Columbus, at least up until last year. Not that it's an especially meaningful stat.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

How about Johansen ($2m retained) for Graves + Compher + futures?

$2m + $3.16m + $3.5m = $8.66m for 2 years (just slightly higher than what Johansen makes now), and then $2m for the last 2 years (a fraction of Johansen's $8m).

I mean, I honestly have no idea what any of Graves, Compher, or Donskoi would look like as players for us. I'm only guessing that Graves and Compher are basically cap dumps that we have no use for, and that maybe Donskoi would have quasi-redeeming value as sort of like a Jarnkrok in our current lineup. But I don't watch your games or really have any clue beyond reading the stats.

Whereas, for all that Johansen has slumped far below his contract value, I still feel like he's a net positive player for us on the ice. I wish we were paying him $4-5M instead of $8M. But I feel like I know the player, and that he still has potential to produce better for us.

So I don't feel like retaining on Johansen and taking two cap dumps back would make any sense for us. But I don't honestly know those players very well. I'm just assuming I would try to dump them for 7th round picks or put them on waivers. Overpaying Johansen by $3-4M is still preferable to me than taking the risk of not being able to shake those boogers off?

But if we didn't retain at all on Johansen, and got at least the quasi-redeeming player in Donskoi back, that's enough to tip the balance. No strong opinion here either way, though, just providing off-the-cuff feedback.

 

[Richard88]

I mean, I honestly have no idea what any of Graves, Compher, or Donskoi would look like as players for us. I'm only guessing that Graves and Compher are basically cap dumps that we have no use for, and that maybe Donskoi would have quasi-redeeming value as sort of like a Jarnkrok in our current lineup. But I don't watch your games or really have any clue beyond reading the stats.

Whereas, for all that Johansen has slumped far below his contract value, I still feel like he's a net positive player for us on the ice. I wish we were paying him $4-5M instead of $8M. But I feel like I know the player, and that he still has potential to produce better for us.

So I don't feel like retaining on Johansen and taking two cap dumps back would make any sense for us. But I don't honestly know those players very well. I'm just assuming I would try to dump them for 7th round picks or put them on waivers. Overpaying Johansen by $3-4M is still preferable to me than taking the risk of not being able to shake those boogers off?

But if we didn't retain at all on Johansen, and got at least the quasi-redeeming player in Donskoi back, that's enough to tip the balance. No strong opinion here either way, though, just providing off-the-cuff feedback.

Compher has had a poor season this year, but he's started to come alive again the last 3 games or so. His value won't be much though. Probably not a cap dump but likely not much positive value.

Graves definitely isn't a cap dump, far from it. Probably worth a 2nd + 3rd or something in that ballpark.

Neither of them would be the center-piece of the deal though. Notice that I included "+ futures" in my earlier suggestion and that's where the real value would be for Nashville. Avs have a decent group of prospects to choose from, including Timmins, Kaut, Bowers, Barron, Helleson, Foudy, Annunen, Ranta, Beaucage, Zhuravlyov, and Kovalenko, along with their 2021 1st.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Compher has had a poor season this year, but he's started to come alive again the last 3 games or so. His value won't be much though. Probably not a cap dump but likely not much positive value.

Graves definitely isn't a cap dump, far from it. Probably worth a 2nd + 3rd or something in that ballpark.

Neither of them would be the center-piece of the deal though. Notice that I included "+ futures" in my earlier suggestion and that's where the real value would be for Nashville. Avs have a decent group of prospects to choose from, including Timmins, Kaut, Bowers, Barron, Helleson, Foudy, Annunen, Ranta, Beaucage, Zhuravlyov, and Kovalenko, along with their 2021 1st.

At the end of the day, I don't have the pro scouting knowledge of Graves/Compher, or the amateur scouting knowledge of those prospects to really know what would tip things one way or the other.

I guess my bottom line is that if Colorado has any need for Johansen, he's a pretty good "big body" #2/3C with production upside, and it's possible he could be had for some permutation of these concepts. What the exact specifics work out to... I'm just not qualified to evaluate. But I would be a little surprised if the Preds would retain.

 

[Richard88]

At the end of the day, I don't have the pro scouting knowledge of Graves/Compher, or the amateur scouting knowledge of those prospects to really know what would tip things one way or the other.

I guess my bottom line is that if Colorado has any need for Johansen, he's a pretty good "big body" #2/3C with production upside, and it's possible he could be had for some permutation of these concepts. What the exact specifics work out to... I'm just not qualified to evaluate. But I would be a little surprised if the Preds would retain.

That's one of the most reasonable and refreshingly honest posts I've read on this site. You'd sometimes think everyone on this site was a qualified GM with decades of scouting experience the way some of these threads go haha