Speculation: Prediction thread

Mr Snrub

I like the way Snrub thinks!
Oct 12, 2016
5,713
2,410
I believe that next season, the Flames have a legitimate shot at collecting more than 110pts and could take the Pacific Division, with a bit of luck. I think the team is even in a better position than Edmonton, San Jose or Anaheim and that our roster as it currently stands has all the pieces necessary to take a leap and become a real powerhouse in the west. (Yes, I realise I'm jinxing it.)

OFFSEASON MOVES:
  1. Up until the trade deadline, the Flames' bottom three was Wideman, Jokipakka, and Bartkowski. Stone, Kulak and Hamonic is a world of difference, and considering the Flames were already a good shot suppression team, the influence of upgrading the worst half of our defense should push us even higher. I expect this team to give up very few chances next season.

  2. While I'm not entirely sure what we have in our goaltending tandem, it was critically apparent at the end of the last year that neither Elliott nor Johnson were starters or players you could have real success as an NHL team with. On one hand, rolling the dice yet again is troubling to say the least, but on the other hand, Mike Smith has proven he's a very capable starter even while playing on a perennially bad club, and Lack is only a few years removed from looking like one of the best young goaltenders in the league.

I think these two upgrades, as well as the fact that maybe the most important forward we lost this year was Alex Chiasson ought to mean the Flames have tangibly improved. Nonetheless, a few key things need to happen for the team to become the powerhouse I think it has a really good shot at being.

NECESSARY STEPS, IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER:
  1. Micheal Ferland has to play like he did at the end of last year. For the Flames to have the sort of success I think they can, Ferland has to prove he's a top six player. Playing with Johnny and Mony will help, but I believe that much, if not all of his game is already there - it just requires consistency. The Flames currently lack a third guy who can rack up points on the top line, if Ferland can be that guy we're going to be in a much better place offensively.

  2. At least one of Bennett and Tkachuk needs to have a breakout year. Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk are the two Flames with the highest potentials on the roster - at least one of them needs to have a year where they put it all together. For Bennett, I think that specifically entails him playing on Backlund's wing, because he's not going to get the minutes, the deployment or the linemates on our third line to let him become an offensive force. Tkachuk is already close to being a 60-75pt guy and is certainly the better bet between the two of them to break out. I feel this in particular is non-negotiable. If the Flames want to compete, they at minimum one more top-line player.

  3. We need a few rookies to take the next step. There are still holes in the roster, which ought to be filled by Jankowski, Hathaway and either Kulak or Wotherspoon. While all these guys will receive sheltered deployment and are not key in the same way that the rest of our group's performance is, these guys, they still all need to show up to play.

  4. Rebound years on defense. Michael Stone played injured for much of the last year and it showed throughout his game. We don't need him to be a top-pairing guy again like he was with OEL in Arizona, but we do need Stone to play at least like a #4, regardless of whether he ends up with Brodie or a rookie. Giordano played an excellent all-around game last year, but I think as a guy who's proven in the past he can chip in points, we'll need to see more of that again to contend for the division title. Brodie I won't include - I think many of his struggles last year had to do with his D partner and that there really were few problems with his game altogether.

  5. Smith and Lack can't let us down. Mike Smith has played well even while on a nightmare of a team in Arizona. We need him to look like an average starter and to keep us in games - i.e., not what Elliott did last year. He can't be the latest casualty of the goalie graveyard out here. If he plays well and the defense keeps stopping shots from getting on goal, we will be well poised to win the division. Eddie Lack on the other hand needs to rethink his game and simply prove he's an NHL goaltender. There is a 150% chance Smith gets injured, and when that happens it's going to be up to Lack to not screw us. He has to be about as good as either Elliott or Johnson was, and personally I think he has the ability if he goes back to playing in the style he's most comfortable, as others have commented.

I think if the majority of the things listed above happen, the Flames ought to win the Pacific. If all of them happen, I see no reason the Flames can't have the first seed in the West.
 

Simarino

Registered User
Oct 21, 2009
3,673
3,465
Hey Guys,

Need your help here, im in a fantasy keepers league, so you get to keep your players for life if you want to, i got to pick a d-man and it comes down to Giordano(33) or Brodie(27).

Both had a little bit of a down year offensively last year and i was wondering in Gio's case if it was due to his age or just a down year and theres a good chance he'll back being a 50-55pts dman next year??? Can Brodie be back to his 45-50 form of 2years ago or he doesnt have an offesive role enough with Gio and Hamilton in front of him.

Thanks alot Guys!! cheers

p.s: Only pts count, no pim or +/-
 

FerklundCGY

Registered User
Jul 3, 2017
1,894
1,966
Hey Guys,

Need your help here, im in a fantasy keepers league, so you get to keep your players for life if you want to, i got to pick a d-man and it comes down to Giordano(33) or Brodie(27).

Both had a little bit of a down year offensively last year and i was wondering in Gio's case if it was due to his age or just a down year and theres a good chance he'll back being a 50-55pts dman next year??? Can Brodie be back to his 45-50 form of 2years ago or he doesnt have an offesive role enough with Gio and Hamilton in front of him.

Thanks alot Guys!! cheers

p.s: Only pts count, no pim or +/-

If everything mattered, Gio rather easily. If it's only points that matter, it's a tough choice.

I'd probably lean towards Brodie, though. He was a beast offensively (especially at even strength) 2 seasons ago and after the Flames acquired Stone and Brodie didn't have to drag around garbage partners anymore, he was excellent offensively to end the season. Now, considering he'll most likely be paired with a defensive-minded partner in Hamonic and remain on the #1 PP unit (even though that spot should belong to Hamilton), Brodie can worry less about having to do everything for his D-pair, which I believe will see him return to a 45+ point D-man.

However, with all that said, I could also see Gio returning to 50+ point form. Tough choice
 

Simarino

Registered User
Oct 21, 2009
3,673
3,465
If everything mattered, Gio rather easily. If it's only points that matter, it's a tough choice.

I'd probably lean towards Brodie, though. He was a beast offensively (especially at even strength) 2 seasons ago and after the Flames acquired Stone and Brodie didn't have to drag around garbage partners anymore, he was excellent offensively to end the season. Now, considering he'll most likely be paired with a defensive-minded partner in Hamonic and remain on the #1 PP unit (even though that spot should belong to Hamilton), Brodie can worry less about having to do everything for his D-pair, which I believe will see him return to a 45+ point D-man.

However, with all that said, I could also see Gio returning to 50+ point form. Tough choice

Thanks alot for the infos and your opinion!!:) Think i'll go with Brodie, if he puts 45pts on the board for me, theres not a very big upside in taking Giordano whos 6 years older.
 

Mr Snrub

I like the way Snrub thinks!
Oct 12, 2016
5,713
2,410
Hey Guys,

Need your help here, im in a fantasy keepers league, so you get to keep your players for life if you want to, i got to pick a d-man and it comes down to Giordano(33) or Brodie(27).

Both had a little bit of a down year offensively last year and i was wondering in Gio's case if it was due to his age or just a down year and theres a good chance he'll back being a 50-55pts dman next year??? Can Brodie be back to his 45-50 form of 2years ago or he doesnt have an offesive role enough with Gio and Hamilton in front of him.

Thanks alot Guys!! cheers

p.s: Only pts count, no pim or +/-

Brodie is definitely the safer bet. Giordano will still be good through 35 but Brodie has plenty more years of being a great and productive defenseman. Plus he'll eventually play with Dougie Hamilton on the top pair (maybe as soon as two years from now).
 

Bounces R Way

Registered User
Nov 18, 2013
33,475
52,659
Weegartown
Hey Guys,

Need your help here, im in a fantasy keepers league, so you get to keep your players for life if you want to, i got to pick a d-man and it comes down to Giordano(33) or Brodie(27).

Both had a little bit of a down year offensively last year and i was wondering in Gio's case if it was due to his age or just a down year and theres a good chance he'll back being a 50-55pts dman next year??? Can Brodie be back to his 45-50 form of 2years ago or he doesnt have an offesive role enough with Gio and Hamilton in front of him.

Thanks alot Guys!! cheers

p.s: Only pts count, no pim or +/-

Toss up. Expect Brodie to be much better not saddled with Wideman for the majority of the season and having put some issues from his personal life in the rearview. He also ran our 1st unitPP last year. He doesn't score a whole lot so if Gs are weighted differently then go with Gio. Giordano I expect to have around 45-50pts and somewhere between 12-20 goals. Maybe more if the offence starts clicking sometime before it's usual December surge.
 

OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
Prospect Prediction: If he makes Team Canada, 19year old Mini Matty Phillips will outproduce 19 year Koiler Yamamoto at WJC. All while being he less physically mature prospect at this stage in their careers.
 

OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
Hey Guys,

Need your help here, im in a fantasy keepers league, so you get to keep your players for life if you want to, i got to pick a d-man and it comes down to Giordano(33) or Brodie(27).

Both had a little bit of a down year offensively last year and i was wondering in Gio's case if it was due to his age or just a down year and theres a good chance he'll back being a 50-55pts dman next year??? Can Brodie be back to his 45-50 form of 2years ago or he doesnt have an offesive role enough with Gio and Hamilton in front of him.

Thanks alot Guys!! cheers

p.s: Only pts count, no pim or +/-

Giordano is unlikely to hit 50 wih Hamilton as his partner. Hamilton rarely passes across to Gio and Gio is content playing more of a stay at home role on the pair. It's not that his skills have declined but he is playing a risk-averse game in our current system.

Brodie could hit 55+. Hamonic to cover for risks, more comfort manning the point on the 1-3-1 1st unit PP, and simply a reversal of his miserable luck.
 

Flameshomer

Likeaholic
Aug 26, 2010
3,830
1,039
Edmonton
Giordano is unlikely to hit 50 wih Hamilton as his partner. Hamilton rarely passes across to Gio and Gio is content playing more of a stay at home role on the pair. It's not that his skills have declined but he is playing a risk-averse game in our current system.

Brodie could hit 55+. Hamonic to cover for risks, more comfort manning the point on the 1-3-1 1st unit PP, and simply a reversal of his miserable luck.

I will happily change my name to MONAHANTHEWINGER - or really anything that will make you super happy, if Brodie scores over 50 points this season. He didn't manage it in his best season getting first pairing minutes beside our best defenseman, don't know how he will manage it on the second pair with a much less offensively gifted defenseman (no slight meant to Hamonic).
It's just not a realistic thing to expect.

I remain steadfast in my belief that we should trade Brodie and try to maximize his value.
 

OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
He didn't manage it in his best season getting first pairing minutes beside our best defenseman,

Combine Brodie's ES points pace in 2015-16 (34 in 70, for a pace of 40 ES Points)

with

Brodie's PP Points pace in from December 2016 onwards (13 in 60, for a pace of 18 PP Points

with

Brodie's annual two+ shorthanded points (2 in 82)

and you'd have a 60 point/82GP defenseman. Everything won't fall together so perfectly, but it's not like we're talking about Oscar Klefbom here. We're talking about a guy a year removed from a 53 point pace season. Over 50 is doable,

And Hamonic is hardly a bad fit for Brodie offensively. He offsets Brodie's weaker areas ideally:

dashboard-1-4.png


Which along with Hamonic's ability to not be Dennis Wideman, should lead to an offensively confident Brodie.

Brodie is not a lock to hit 50+ obviously, but I'll take you for your word that if Brodie hits 50+ you will change your username to JohnnyJankoMonny.
 

SmellOfVictory

Registered User
Jun 3, 2011
10,959
653
I will happily change my name to MONAHANTHEWINGER - or really anything that will make you super happy, if Brodie scores over 50 points this season. He didn't manage it in his best season getting first pairing minutes beside our best defenseman, don't know how he will manage it on the second pair with a much less offensively gifted defenseman (no slight meant to Hamonic).
It's just not a realistic thing to expect.

I remain steadfast in my belief that we should trade Brodie and try to maximize his value.

The only reason he didn't hit 50 points that season is because he missed 12 games. He was also on the 2nd PP unit (as he realistically should be given his not-great shot, but still).
 

BigRangy

Get well soon oliver
Mar 17, 2015
3,407
1,110
Prospect Prediction: If he makes Team Canada, 19year old Mini Matty Phillips will outproduce 19 year Koiler Yamamoto at WJC. All while being he less physically mature prospect at this stage in their careers.

Really doubt it

Mittelstadt-Brown-Yamamoto will be the top line for the states and Phillips will not supplant Raddysh as the #1 RW for Canada.

Plus Yamamoto will get to play alongside and not against Adam Fox who can help any scrub put up points.
 

Fig

Absolute Horse Shirt
Dec 15, 2014
12,955
8,449
JG - Mony - Ferland (Scoring)
Janko - Backlund - Frolik (Defensive responsible)
Tkachuk - Bennett - Versteeg (Brawn and skill combo + Tkachuk show he is legit line?)
Stajan /Lazar - Lazar/Stajan - Brouwer (Lazar training line + Grinder line. )

F Hamilton

Gio - Hamilton
Brodie - Hamonic
TSpoon - Stone

B Kulak

Smith
Lack


Does this seem like a realistic set of lines? IMO TSpoon will surprise more than Kulak or will develop better chemistry over Kulak with Stone.
 

OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
Five guys with 25+ goals (Ferland Gaudreau Monahan Backlund Bennett)
Seven guys with 50+ points ( Backlund Tkachuk Gaudreau Monahan Jankowski Bennett and one of the big 3 defensemen)


Unfortunately, I may have just convinced myself that Bennett at 50 is unrealistic if he plays C (or Jankowski for that matter). The minutes just won't be there.

OvermanKingGainer;135298981 said:
:laugh: That's an absurd claim. It's rooted in nothing other than ignorance.

For an idea of Bennett's expected role, consider he played 1214 TOI last season. He killed penalties, played some second unit PP. and played less minutes at 5-on-5 than the top two lines (naturally) You could give him on an extra 35-40 minutes of power play time next year but that'd be the extent of it.

Even if he is good, he isn't going to replace

1) Johnny Gaudreau on the power play. Duh. I shouldn't need to explain this.

2) Sean Monahan on the power play. He is one of the best triggers in the NHL from the slot, and last year potted four power play goals in four playoff games. He is tied for 15th among all NHL forwards in Power Play Goals over the last three seasons

3) Kris Versteeg on the power play. Versteeg shoots right. Versteeg was a power play dynamo last year outproducing Gaudreau. Someday Bennett should replace Versteeg, but right now Versteeg might be Calgary's best option on the PP.

4) Matthew Tkachuk on the power play. He is becoming one of the best PP screener/tippers in the entire league. He might already be top 10 as a kid who was 18/19 last year.

5) Michael Backlund on the power play. He led the Flames in power play scoring last year.

That's five forwards Bennett is not replacing by no fault of his own. He's a very good offensive forward but nearly every team in the NHL would want one of the five guys above on their power play. That leaves two power play spots for Bennett. One of them is occupied by 4.5 million dollar Troy Brouwer, who is literally useless if you don't spoon feed him power play time. Diminishing his value further isn't in Calgary's best interest, since we want to dump him asap.

And we're down to one, on power play unit two with Tkachuk and Backlund. I expect Bennett to play there for much of the year, but that hasn't stopped the coach from randomly putting Michael Frolik there to maintain his 5-on-5 lines for when PPs end, and then you've got Micheal Ferland and Mark Jankowski who are also more than deserving.

At 5 on 5? Bennett's a center on a team with Sean Monahan and Mikael Backlund who are both solid centers in their prime. Monahan plays with Gaudreau on the already-strong scoring line and Backlund is the undisputed 28 year old 1C and was 4th in NHL Selke voting last year.

Bennett is being groomed to someday replace Backlund but Backlund hasn't had an injury of note in the last two calendar years (aside from a pre-season concussion that didn't stop him from missing a game). Monahan has never missed a game to injury since Bennett has been a Flame. It's common sense to keep the top six intact because it's a strong and stable top six.

If a 21 year old player with Bennett's complete game scored 50 points as a mere third center, he'll be commanding more trade value than nearly any winger. Don't believe me? Here's a list of players who've done anything remotely comparable to that kind of accomplishment.

Under-23 players in the last decade to score 50 points while taking 650+ faceoffs and playing under 1275 minutes TOI:


Age 21 Aleksander Barkov - 52 points in 2016-17
Age 20 Jack Eichel - 57 points in 2016-17
Age 22 Steven Stamkos - 57 points in 2012-13
Age 19 Jonathan Toews - 54 points in 2007-08
Age 20 Sidney Crosby - 72 points in 2007-08

So you've got:

- A guy playing with Huberdeau and Jagr on his team's top line who was injured
- A PPG first line offensive monster, who was injured
- A franchise center playing on the first line with the Art Ross winner that year, in a lockout shortened season
- A franchise center in an era where power plays were handed out more liberally, playing on a first line with a future Art Ross winner, who was injured
- The best player of our generation, who was injured

That's how unrealistic it is for Sam Bennett to score 50+ points in the role he plays. If he pulled it off, I'm not sure a team would accept Marchand + Pastrnak for him.
 
Last edited:

Kahvi

Registered User
Sponsor
Jun 4, 2007
4,899
3,539
Alberga
Not really a prediction but I'm gonna bet maybe 50-100€ for Flames to win SC. I can afford to lose that, and if I win I can get a plane ticket to watch a Flames game next season.
 

Mr Snrub

I like the way Snrub thinks!
Oct 12, 2016
5,713
2,410
Mangiapane doesn't make the team out of camp, but is called up from Stockton no later than mid-October after a bit of lineup shuffling and plays the rest of the year in the NHL.
 

McDaddy

ruh roh
Jan 22, 2017
534
141
Edmonton
JG - Mony - Ferland (Scoring)
Janko - Backlund - Frolik (Defensive responsible)
Tkachuk - Bennett - Versteeg (Brawn and skill combo + Tkachuk show he is legit line?)
Stajan /Lazar - Lazar/Stajan - Brouwer (Lazar training line + Grinder line. )

F Hamilton

Gio - Hamilton
Brodie - Hamonic
TSpoon - Stone

B Kulak

Smith
Lack


Does this seem like a realistic set of lines? IMO TSpoon will surprise more than Kulak or will develop better chemistry over Kulak with Stone.

Coming here in peace, but do you guys not think that Foo will be in the starting lineup? Isn't that why he chose to sign with you guys anyways?

Anyways, just lurking. Don't mind me. :popcorn:
 

Anglesmith

Setting up the play?
Sep 17, 2012
46,441
14,715
Victoria
Coming here in peace, but do you guys not think that Foo will be in the starting lineup? Isn't that why he chose to sign with you guys anyways?

Anyways, just lurking. Don't mind me. :popcorn:

No NHL team is going to guarantee a spot to a completely unproven guy coming out of college. The best they can promise is opportunity.
 

OvermanKingGainer

#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Feb 3, 2015
16,133
7,107
2022 Cup to Calgary
Coming here in peace, but do you guys not think that Foo will be in the starting lineup?

It's rare for a player out of college or Junior to make our team out of camp. Since Treliving's been here - Jankowski, Arnold, Agostino, Morrison, have all been sent down. Gaudreau made the team out of camp, but you're talking about a phenom who probably overstayed a year in college just to play with his little brother and win a Hobey Baker.

Foo as a winger also projects more to be a middle six grinder in that Frolik/Stempniak type mold rather than an ultrahigh-skill player like Gaudreau, which means he won't make the NHL until his polish levels are good enough that he can made a definite positive impact.

Isn't that why he chose to sign with you guys anyways?

He chose to sign with us because

1) He had built a bit of a relationship with the staff here in dev camp a year ago
2) The staff impressed his family during his tour
3) He saw a real opportunity to make the NHL in a few years, maybe as a replacement to Versteeg or Chiasson or even Frolik, given that RW is an organizational weak point with no Mark Stone or Wayne Simmonds types holding down spots on lockdown. Which is true.

But that doesn't mean he is or should be realistically expecting to make the team out of camp. It should be his goal of course, but not his expectation.

So far, he hasn't proven that - his college production was exciting but may have been driven by his linemate Vecchione and a minutes push. He has a lot to prove starting in the AHL, where I imagine he is either #1 RW or #2RW with plenty of power play and PK time.

No NHL team is going to guarantee a spot to a completely unproven guy coming out of college. The best they can promise is opportunity.

Well, the Rangers and Oilers do that (Hayes, Vesey, Schultz, Caggiula). But it's not Calgary's MO since Feaster left.
 

Anglesmith

Setting up the play?
Sep 17, 2012
46,441
14,715
Victoria
Well, the Rangers and Oilers do that (Hayes, Vesey, Schultz, Caggiula). But it's not Calgary's MO since Feaster left.

Unlike Foo, all but one of those guys are drafted players with pedigree that only became available because they went four years. But still, I highly doubt they guaranteed them a spot. An opportunity, sure, and I bet they've done that with Foo. But I don't think there's any way a GM who is trying to win is going to say "no matter what you do in training camp or how good you actually are at the NHL level, you're playing on our NHL team." That would be a horrible way to run a team. Unless you have a source that says otherwise, of course, I'm not really inclined to believe that. In the case of Edmonton with Schultz, it's slightly more believable, as they were at a point where their organization had forgotten all about the objective of winning.

So I think Foo was assured he'd be given the opportunity to win a spot from the likes of Brouwer, Lazar, Versteeg or Jankowski. But I don't personally believe he'll succeed in that, because I'm generally pretty pessimistic when it comes to college UFAs.
 

Fig

Absolute Horse Shirt
Dec 15, 2014
12,955
8,449
Coming here in peace, but do you guys not think that Foo will be in the starting lineup? Isn't that why he chose to sign with you guys anyways?

Anyways, just lurking. Don't mind me. :popcorn:

I don't see how he beats the others for a RW spot, either due to skill or contract.

I'd imagine he's #1 or #2 RW injury call up. IMO, he competes with Hathaway for that first RW call up.

In a season, Versteeg probably doesn't return, so I think there's an slot wide open for him to take. This allows a comfortable transition and development in the AHL while being first call up, and in a season, possibly a full time job. I imagine they explained Jankowski's NHL path and said they'd do the same for Foo.

We're far further along on RW than when Jooris came and stole a spot. But an opportunity will come for Foo sooner than later.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->