Speculation: Predicting where the top 50 free agents land

MMC

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May 11, 2014
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While unfortunately we aren't talking about all of the incoming news we're used to hearing on July 1st, we can still talk about this year's class. Since we know there will be a flat cap, predict the contracts and destinations of TSN's top 50 free agent list.

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Ledge And Dairy

Registered User
Pietrangelo - WPG/PHI 6 or 7 years
Hall - CGY/ARI
Krug - BOS/DET
Markstrom - VAN
Byfuglien - retired
Lehner - idk anymore CAR? SJS?
Hoffman - ARI/DAL/NSH
Dadonov - FLA
Toffoli - VAN/CGY
Barrie - VAN? Idk
Haula - FLA/BUF
Holtby - BUF/CAR
Brodie - CGY/southern team
Vatanen - CGY/ANA/WPG
Shattenkirk - USA team looking for an offensive RD at 3-4M
Dillon - WSH/BUF
Tanev - VAN
Gustafson - CGY? Idk
Braun - PHI/TOR
Hamonic - TOR/WPG
Edmudson - CAR/BUF/MTL
Crawford - CHI
 
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Flyer lurker

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Feb 16, 2019
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Pietrangelo - WPG/PHI 6 or 7 years
Hall - CGY/ARI
Krug - BOS/DET
Markstrom - VAN
Byfuglien - retired
Lehner - idk anymore CAR? SJS?
Hoffman - ARI/DAL/NSH
Dadonov - FLA
Toffoli - VAN/CGY
Barrie - VAN? Idk
Haula - FLA/BUF
Holtby - BUF/CAR
Brodie - CGY/southern team
Vatanen - CGY/ANA/WPG
Shattenkirk - USA team looking for an offensive RD at 3-4M
Dillon - WSH/BUF
Tanev - VAN
Gustafson - CGY? Idk
Braun - PHI/TOR
Hamonic - TOR/WPG
Edmudson - CAR/BUF/MTL
Crawford - CHI
Flyers don't have cap space for AP. WPG makes sense.
 

Hunter368

RIP lomiller1, see you in the next life buddy.
Nov 8, 2011
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Jets don't have the cap space for Pietrangelo, without trading away a significant contract.......which is counter productive. Can't see Winnipeg being interested in him.
 

McJedi

Registered User
Apr 21, 2020
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Florida
Pietrangelo - WPG/PHI 6 or 7 years
Hall - CGY/ARI
Krug - BOS/DET
Markstrom - VAN
Byfuglien - retired
Lehner - idk anymore CAR? SJS?
Hoffman - ARI/DAL/NSH
Dadonov - FLA
Toffoli - VAN/CGY
Barrie - VAN? Idk
Haula - FLA/BUF
Holtby - BUF/CAR
Brodie - CGY/southern team
Vatanen - CGY/ANA/WPG
Shattenkirk - USA team looking for an offensive RD at 3-4M
Dillon - WSH/BUF
Tanev - VAN
Gustafson - CGY? Idk
Braun - PHI/TOR
Hamonic - TOR/WPG
Edmudson - CAR/BUF/MTL
Crawford - CHI

The Avs, with cap space and one of the NHLs best rosters, gets shut out? Can’t get a single decent UFA to look at them? A team in a nice city with pretty low income tax that will play for the cup for the foreseeable future?

but buffalo is in on four guys.
 

Flyer lurker

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Feb 16, 2019
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For bleeps and giggles
AP STL
Hall - CGY
Krug - BOS
Markstrom - VAN
Byfuglien - HE GONE
Lehner - CHI
Hoffman - MON
Dadonov - FLA
Toffoli - VAN
Barrie - If Toffoli goes elsewhere VAN makes sense. in this case I'll go NJD
Haula - BUF
Holtby - DET
Brodie - TML
Vatanen -NJD
 

Ledge And Dairy

Registered User
The Avs, with cap space and one of the NHLs best rosters, gets shut out? Can’t get a single decent UFA to look at them? A team in a nice city with pretty low income tax that will play for the cup for the foreseeable future?

but buffalo is in on four guys.
If Sakic wanted these UFA's he woumd have gone for them at the TDL. Avs have a lot of major contracts coming up in the next 3 years. Signing Hoffman or something to a 6 year deal hurts them more than it helps. As for Buffalo, they are desperate for improvement so why wpuldnt they be i o certain players
 

danielpalfredsson

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Aug 14, 2013
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Pietrangelo will sign a team friendly deal with Toronto. Either something in the 1-2 year range. Or something longer term, but with a lower cap hit. Toronto will move Nylander to make room. Maybe they move Frederik Andersen after his bonus is paid to a budget team, and replace him with a cheaper goalie. With the amount they paid in assets for Campbell, I guess they might see him as more than just a backup, and they will need to clear more cap.

Ceci is the most fascinating UFA to me, because previously it has seemed like guys coaching in the NHL view him highly, while advanced stats guys, and fans think he stinks. When I say advanced stats guys or fans, I'm not trying to make an implication that they don't have valid opinions. He has been played like a top pairing defender by multiple coaches, but be is universally viewed by everybody else as terrible. I want to see if even with the cap issues, he at least gets something like 3.5 x 3-4 years.

I've got a feeling Arizona will end up keeping Hall. They'll do the same thing San Jose did with Karlsson. Take advantage of being able to offer 8 years, while also offering a higher AAV than anybody else is going to give. Ultimately, money will talk and he'll stay there. I could see New Jersey and Arizona working together to make it happen, because New Jersey has cap space to take on cap dumps and on top of whatever Arizona gives them to take on a bad contract, New Jersey also gets the benefit of further conditional picks from the Hall trade based on him re-signing with Arizona.

Holtby to Chicago makes sense. Crawford is 36 next season. Chicago doesn't seem to have any certainty in net beyond Crawford. Holtby would bring stability in net, and Chicago can afford the 5.5+ million he will cost. While Chicago hasn't been winning much the last few years, their organization still has a strong reputation from their days as a Gary Bettman certified dynasty.
 
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Flyer lurker

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Philly has one of the highest available cap space (after RFA signings) of competing teams pursuing a top end D like Piet whe STL is cap strapped is perfectly logical
If I include Frost 70.4m 15 players signed
need to sign
KUbel
Lindblom
Patrick
backup G
Myers
Hagg

Long term
2021
Hart getting at least 5m raise in a year
Sanheim raise at least 2-3m raise
2022
Couts will get 4-5m raise
They can sign a mid range player but not 9m player.
 
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Nikishin Go Boom

Russian Bulldozer Consultent
Jul 31, 2017
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I doubt Edmundson or Holtby comes to Carolina. Carolina is a big stat organization and both aren’t statistical good.

Canes may stand pat or may go crazy.

If we don’t trade for a righty to play with Staal, Craig Smith would be the most realistic.
 
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TheImpatientPanther

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Jan 17, 2013
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Ontario, Canada
Pietrangelo - WPG/PHI 6 or 7 years
Hall - CGY/ARI
Krug - BOS/DET
Markstrom - VAN
Byfuglien - retired
Lehner - idk anymore CAR? SJS?
Hoffman - ARI/DAL/NSH
Dadonov - FLA
Toffoli - VAN/CGY
Barrie - VAN? Idk
Haula - FLA/BUF
Holtby - BUF/CAR
Brodie - CGY/southern team
Vatanen - CGY/ANA/WPG
Shattenkirk - USA team looking for an offensive RD at 3-4M
Dillon - WSH/BUF
Tanev - VAN
Gustafson - CGY? Idk
Braun - PHI/TOR
Hamonic - TOR/WPG
Edmudson - CAR/BUF/MTL
Crawford - CHI

If Hoffman is chasing extra tax free money, DAL and NSH seem like good candidates.
ARI makes sense as well if Hall walks.
 
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Ledge And Dairy

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If Hoffman is chasing extra tax free money, DAL and NSH seem like good candidates.
ARI makes sense as well if Hall walks.
All 3 of those teams are looking to improve their scoring too. Nashville is in need of left handed shots and I think a top line of Forsberg - Duchene - Hoffman is pretty powerful and exciting.
I think Dad resigns with you guys though, from my understanding he loves Florida and would probably take a small discount to stay.
 
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TheImpatientPanther

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All 3 of those teams are looking to improve their scoring too. Nashville is in need of left handed shots and I think a top line of Forsberg - Duchene - Hoffman is pretty powerful and exciting.
I think Dad resigns with you guys though, from my understanding he loves Florida and would probably take a small discount to stay.

Created a thread on FLA board, who to keep if you can only re-sign one. Dadonov vs Hoffman and it was split for a while.
I'd personally keep Hoffman even if he is gonna get a bit more money/AAV because he will age/produce better going forward and has become a 30 goal guy here, was the best player on the team outside Ekblad heading into the shutdown. Having him and Tippett sniping on the PP would be fun to see.

Dadonov is the better 2 way player and makes more sense for some cap savings, as well as keeping the top line in tact if need be and may help Denisenko transition better, his English isn't that strong right now.
Think Barkov is the other lone Russian speaking player on the team right now.
 

voyageur

Hockey fanatic
Jul 10, 2011
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I'll say

Taylor Hall I think goes to Calgary, Johnny Gaudreau get traded to the East.

I could see Pietrangelo on the Hawks. He and Keith together as a top pair.

Torey Krug to L.A., on a top pairing with Doughty.

Joel Edmunson I could see the Jets being in on, as well as re-signing De Melo.

Vatanen to Colorado maybe.

I don't think Detroit breaks the bank, but I could see them going after Radko Gudas.

Tyson Barrie to Dallas

That's all I got.
 

Richard88

John 3:16
Jun 29, 2019
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Pietrangelo will sign a team friendly deal with Toronto. Either something in the 1-2 year range. Or something longer term, but with a lower cap hit. Toronto will move Nylander to make room. Maybe they move Frederik Andersen after his bonus is paid to a budget team, and replace him with a cheaper goalie. With the amount they paid in assets for Campbell, I guess they might see him as more than just a backup, and they will need to clear more cap.

Ceci is the most fascinating UFA to me, because previously it has seemed like guys coaching in the NHL view him highly, while advanced stats guys, and fans think he stinks. When I say advanced stats guys or fans, I'm not trying to make an implication that they don't have valid opinions. He has been played like a top pairing defender by multiple coaches, but be is universally viewed by everybody else as terrible. I want to see if even with the cap issues, he at least gets something like 3.5 x 3-4 years.

I've got a feeling Arizona will end up keeping Hall. They'll do the same thing San Jose did with Karlsson. Take advantage of being able to offer 8 years, while also offering a higher AAV than anybody else is going to give. Ultimately, money will talk and he'll stay there. I could see New Jersey and Arizona working together to make it happen, because New Jersey has cap space to take on cap dumps and on top of whatever Arizona gives them to take on a bad contract, New Jersey also gets the benefit of further conditional picks from the Hall trade based on him re-signing with Arizona.

Holtby to Chicago makes sense. Crawford is 36 next season. Chicago doesn't seem to have any certainty in net beyond Crawford. Holtby would bring stability in net, and Chicago can afford the 5.5+ million he will cost. While Chicago hasn't been winning much the last few years, their organization still has a strong reputation from their days as a Gary Bettman certified dynasty.
I could see Pietrangelo signing in Toronto, but it won't be a short-term deal. Something like $9m x 7 years would be workable. And if they do that I'd expect Colorado to be one of the front-runners for Nylander as they have the capspace and futures to make it work.

Interesting thoughts on Hall regarding NJ and Arizona working together. Certainly does make sense from NJ's perspective to help Arizona keep Hall. A player like Goligoski or Demers could also be useful for them in the short term.
 

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