Sens Shot Predicting the Opening Day Lineup

[aragorn]

Personally, if it takes 3-5 years to be ready to challenge for a playoff spot I will label this rebuild as a major failure. Heck, I might be doing that as soon as the 2021-22 season. They need to AT least stay in the playoffs race until at least after the trade deadline.

I'm a very down-to-earth person and quite patient in general but also do not enjoy/accept failure that much, and not too long. We have been at the bottom of the barrel for 3 years already. The Sens really didn't start their rebuild from scratch (situation would be etxremely different then), they already had a pretty good prospect pool (see 2018 pool) and just traded several stars in their prime, got a massive return for Karlsson and just drafted 2 top-5 picks in a super stacked draft. That's on top of Chabot and Tkachuk.

You initially said "Over the next couple of seasons I would trade most of the players in that lineup". Of course, 5 years is very different from "the next couple". Yes, in 5 years most actual players will have been replaced by prospects. Prospects will start graduating in bunches starting this season (if there's any)

3 NHL years is very far away in the future even if time goes fast in general. Things change a LOT in the NHL from a season to another, even moreso than before. We already discussed this before but I can't see the Sens waiting patiently 3-5 years before being able to challenge for a playoff spot. If it takes that long it's because the rebuild will have gone off the rails already and several of Stuetzle/Chabot/Tkachuk/Sanderson/Norris/ Batherson/Formenton/Brannstrom/Batherson/Murray will not meet expectations. If we are still in the bottom 5-10 in 3 years, you can expect a lot of heads to have rolled already... again

Good/great young talent doesn't need to be 27 y/o to start being good in today's NHL. Actually, that's an age where several start regressing due to injuries, etc. I don't expect the team to peak before that 3-5 years period but with all the talent amassed, they will be targetting to compete as soon as possible (which kinda explains why they would spend a lot of money on guys like Dadonov and Murray) and not wait for Chabot to be 27-28 y/o to do so.

Dadonov was signed 3 years and will/should be an usefull skilled veteran until he ages out of utility (he's 31). We shouldn't need anymore towards the end of his contract. Luxury stop gap

Connor Brown is only 26, just signed a 3 years extension and if he is still a valuable part of the team by then, I could easily see him get another contract after that. It will also depend on what kind of other player the teams develop for the bottom-6, because that's where you want Brown ideally as you are trying to build a solid bottom-6

Nick Paul, a bit of the same situation as Brown. He's on a 2 years contract but he has been in the organization longer. Depending on how things play out the next 2 seasons, that's another guy that could be a staple on the team's bottom-6 for several years.

Wolanin, same group age as the last 2 but you're right, he might face a big log-jam on LD. That being said, it will all depend on what happens with Brannstrom, will they trade him? Will they play him on RD? I can't see Brannstrom accepting to be "just" a 3rd pairing LD with not much PP time. Depending on what happens, Wolanin could be a real strenght as your 3rd pairing LD and 2nd PP anchor.

Stuetzle, not sure why you see him as a LWer, Sens drafted him to have him as their top line center but if Logan Brown booms, maybe he would be kept on LW but chances are not super high for Brown to be a legit 1st line Center.

Galchenyuk, very hard to say, will depend what kind of player he wants to be and can be... If he's like before, he shouldn't be here very long.

Balcers could be a nice long term piece as a versatile top-9 winger, but there will be a major log jam, can end up being a trade chip.

But you're totally right, so many questions left to be answered! I always agree with several of the things you say but sometimes also things I strongly disagree. Quite normal

Anyway, similar discussion as last time. You have an extremely conservative approach, nothing wrong with that. But I find that kind of approach a bit scary as you might end up watching the train pass. I certainly hope the Sens don't have that kind of approach and are proactive to adjust the team to be more competitive every year. Or actually, don't make anything, just incorporate the young talented guys to the lineup

Come on, you've been watching hockey as long as I have & you know how long it takes for young guys to start playing up to their potential in the NHL. While I expect some of these guys to possibly take off right out of the gate like maybe Stuetzle, but they are not all going to win rookie of the yr or anything else in their first yr. In fact, some of them could take 3 to 5 yrs in the NHL before they start playing up to their potential & some may never. I think your view is overly optimistic especially given the team they are dressing for next season, most I think see next season as a write off. IMO in 3 to 5 yrs most of their better prospects & players should be in their prime with enough NHL experience behind them.

IMO 3 to 5 yrs is not that long a time, as others have said they probably have another couple of yrs of rebuilding, some of their better prospects may take a few yrs before they turn pro. That is one of the reasons I liked them drafting a few overagers who could be NHL ready sooner. I hope you are right & they start challenging sooner rather than later but I doubt it. This is going to be a weird yr anyway we slice it & they could have a successful yr, but IMO it would not be a very good indicator of what their team will be like going forward. We'll see whose opinion is closer to what actually happens, good luck.

 

[aragorn]

I don't really care what they do in regards to the standings for 2020-21 (well, 2021 sadly). All I want to see is young players keep progressing (and progress can bring winning)

I will cheer for every game to be a win in 2021-22. I would be very mad if they are still bottom-5 then.

Try not to jump to extremes here, nobody said they would be a bottom 5 team in 2 yrs. While I think next yr is a write off, the following yr I expect them to be better & potentially be in a playoff race & maybe just miss the playoffs. The yr after that I expect them to make the playoffs & hopefully get out of the first rd. Yr after that I hope they are challenging for the divisional & maybe the conference championship & the cup the following yrs. Let's not forget that a few other teams are also rebuilding in their division, a few are declining & a few are trying to take that next step to challenge for a cup. It's not going to be easy or a cake walk, Ottawa will have to improve every yr & keep moving forward, but in sports with injuries & other stuff who knows what could happen, either way. Lots of weaker teams surprise stronger teams sometimes in the playoffs, the Leafs screwed us several times.

 

[JD1]

Try not to jump to extremes here, nobody said they would be a bottom 5 team in 2 yrs. While I think next yr is a write off, the following yr I expect them to be better & potentially be in a playoff race & maybe just miss the playoffs. The yr after that I expect them to make the playoffs & hopefully get out of the first rd. Yr after that I hope they are challenging for the divisional & maybe the conference championship & the cup the following yrs. Let's not forget that a few other teams are also rebuilding in their division, a few are declining & a few are trying to take that next step to challenge for a cup. It's not going to be easy or a cake walk, Ottawa will have to improve every yr & keep moving forward, but in sports with injuries & other stuff who knows what could happen, either way. Lots of weaker teams surprise stronger teams sometimes in the playoffs, the Leafs screwed us several times.

I agree with all of this except i don't see this year as a write off. I think we'll show marked improvement. That marked improvement in my mind comes from improved goaltending, an overall improved D, some of our younger NHLers making solid jumps, and we've got enough guys competing for lineup spots that you have to think we get 2 out of the bunch that have solid years, and an improved PP%

 

[sirom]

He isn’t defensive enough IMO to play as an above average 3C and makes may to much as a 4C.

I like CT, but I don’t think he is above average at any slot. He’s better than many 4C but I’d rather spend that money in the top of the lineup.

Hammering White into the 1C slot comes at a cost of not developing Norris or Brown at that same slot. We are teetering on the verge of moving away from Brown because the player doesn’t feel he has been given a fair shot... and he is right. White had 2 consecutive years with the best line mates in our organization had while Brown is grinding out the AHL. Brown was probably better than White last year. All I’m advocating for is to give Brown (and Norris) a chance to break in with skilled players like MD, BT, DAD etc. The same opportunity that White was extended.

CT is not defensive enough LMAO have you ever watched a game or heard reviews from quality NHL sources? If he is not good defensively why is he considered by many coaches analysts to be one of the top penalty killing forwards in the NHL??

 

[Sweatred]

CT is not defensive enough LMAO have you ever watched a game or heard reviews from quality NHL sources? If he is not good defensively why is he considered by many coaches analysts to be one of the top penalty killing forwards in the NHL??

He is decent on the PK but he isn’t the type of model shut down 3C a team should prefer. He isn’t in the realm of Fisher or Pager type 3C’s who can grind down opposing forwards and maintain puck possession neutralizing the other teams best forwards.

If he is, some one will give us a first round pick for him. He may grow into the role, but I predict he struggles in Pagers 1C/3C hybrid role from last year.

Austin Matthew’s doesn’t worry about a CT matchup - it’s probably one of the lightest checking assignments he sees in the Canadian division.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

I think both Norris & L. Brown start the yr in Belleville.

Tkachuk - Tierny - Dadonov
Perry - Galchenyuk - C. Brown
Paul - White - Batherson
Formenton - Anisimov - Watson/Chlapik/Balcers

Chabot - Zaitsev
Wolanin - Gudbranson
Reilly - Brown/Zub

Murray - Hogberg/Daccord

Having scanned every proposed lineup in here, I think this is the closest one to my own thoughts minus Perry + stutzle

 

[GCK]

He is decent on the PK but he isn’t the type of model shut down 3C a team should prefer. He isn’t in the realm of Fisher or Pager type 3C’s who can grind down opposing forwards and maintain puck possession neutralizing the other teams best forwards.

If he is, some one will give us a first round pick for him. He may grow into the role, but I predict he struggles in Pagers 1C/3C hybrid role from last year.

Austin Matthew’s doesn’t worry about a CT matchup - it’s probably one of the lightest checking assignments he sees in the Canadian division.

Pageau is an elite 3Lc because he is smart and has a little more offence than most 3LCs but he never wore anyone down. As for matching up with Matthews or McDavid, no 3rd line can they are too big, fast and talented.

 

[Sweatred]

Pageau is an elite 3Lc because he is smart and has a little more offence than most 3LCs but he never wore anyone down. As for matching up with Matthews or McDavid, no 3rd line can they are too big, fast and talented.

Pager is also strong, tough, willing to play the body, and able to inflict damage.I don’t think Pager was an elite disruptor, but he is above average. CT isn’t. Just because Matthew’s is good doesn’t mean he doesn’t have easy and hard matchups. Nothing you said qualifies CT as an above average shut down 3C. CT belongs in the league, but he’s in the bottom half of his peer group where ever he sorts out other then 4C.

A game for Matthew’s vs a 25 year old Mike Fisher, Pager, or CT are very different games.

 

[Micklebot]

Pager is also strong, tough, willing to play the body, and able to inflict damage.I don’t think Pager was an elite disruptor, but he is above average. CT isn’t. Just because Matthew’s is good doesn’t mean he doesn’t have easy and hard matchups. Nothing you said qualifies CT as an above average shut down 3C. CT belongs in the league, but he’s in the bottom half of his peer group where ever he sorts out other then 4C.

A game for Matthew’s vs a 25 year old Mike Fisher, Pager, or CT are very different games.

This seems to be based on an assumption that your 3rd line center needs to play a matchup defensive role. I don't see that as a fair assumption. Not every 3rd line is matched up in defensive roles.

 

[bert]

Pageau is an elite 3Lc because he is smart and has a little more offence than most 3LCs but he never wore anyone down. As for matching up with Matthews or McDavid, no 3rd line can they are too big, fast and talented.

3rd lines match up against super stars all the time. If players couldn't match up with McDavid or Matthew's they would have won playoff series. Right here in Ottawa at the SCF the best line line in hockey was eaten up by Moen Pahlsson Niedermayer.

 

[Sweatred]

This seems to be based on an assumption that your 3rd line center needs to play a matchup defensive role. I don't see that as a fair assumption. Not every 3rd line is matched up in defensive roles.

You needs some one to burn defensive zone starts vs the other teams best line. You can put your own 1-2 line out but that denies them a lot of offensive zone starts.... and it’s not like Colin White or Norris ? Are great in that role anyway.

A good team need a line that can take away and posses a puck vs other teams best lines.... if not they will have a hard time keeping the puck out of their end or net.... basically a caved in shooting gallery.

DJ doesn’t handout d zone starts to weak players . What many fans view as him overplaying veterans is him only using players he trusts in comprised defensive potions.

 

[aragorn]

I agree with all of this except i don't see this year as a write off. I think we'll show marked improvement. That marked improvement in my mind comes from improved goaltending, an overall improved D, some of our younger NHLers making solid jumps, and we've got enough guys competing for lineup spots that you have to think we get 2 out of the bunch that have solid years, and an improved PP%

Well since I think they are still rebuilding I would like to see them finish poorly to get another top 5 pick & there are a couple of guys at the top of next yr's draft that could really help the Sens move this rebuild further along. While it will still help to get a mid-1st rd pick, the guy I want should be a top 10 or higher pick.

They also have a few guys they acquired over the break that are most likely tradeline moves for more picks for the next draft which I think means they are not finished with the rebuild. We'll see, I expect them to be better, but every other team in the Canadian division should be better too. I think they will be in tough, but should continue to be hard to play against & play a tough, hard game that could surprise some teams early.

 

[JD1]

Well since I think they are still rebuilding I would like to see them finish poorly to get another top 5 pick & there are a couple of guys at the top of next yr's draft that could really help the Sens move this rebuild further along. While it will still help to get a mid-1st rd pick, the guy I want should be a top 10 or higher pick.

They also have a few guys they acquired over the break that are most likely tradeline moves for more picks for the next draft which I think means they are not finished with the rebuild. We'll see, I expect them to be better, but every other team in the Canadian division should be better too. I think they will be in tough, but should continue to be hard to play against & play a tough, hard game that could surprise some teams early.

Best case scenario is have a solid growth year with demonstrable improvement and then actually win the damn lottery. That lottery has done bothing but screw us. We need a win

 

[Xspyrit]

Come on, you've been watching hockey as long as I have & you know how long it takes for young guys to start playing up to their potential in the NHL. While I expect some of these guys to possibly take off right out of the gate like maybe Stuetzle, but they are not all going to win rookie of the yr or anything else in their first yr. In fact, some of them could take 3 to 5 yrs in the NHL before they start playing up to their potential & some may never. I think your view is overly optimistic especially given the team they are dressing for next season, most I think see next season as a write off. IMO in 3 to 5 yrs most of their better prospects & players should be in their prime with enough NHL experience behind them.

15-20 years ago I would have probably agreed with you. I just have much more experience today and the way the NHL has evolved doesn't allow me to agree. It's a YOUTH league more than EVER. Teams want to benefit of ELCs as MUCH as possible and have their players peak as soon as possible before they reach UFA status that is NOW 26-27 years old. I think these are MAJOR factors that you are omitting

My post #520 is pretty detailed. That you like it or not, these are the players we are going to sink or swim with. If those building blocks take years before being good, we're basically screwed. Good news is that Chabot, Tkachuk and Murray have already proven to be quite good in the recent past so they could/should still be good. We also need Tkachuk to continue to progress and Chabot to be even better as he would be given more talent to play with, in theory. Murray to simply play to his capabilities.

Today, there is FAR LESS occurences like Zibanejad where a player takes so long before reaching his potential. Now, it's more like Pettersson, Makar, Heiskanen, Hughes, Chabot, Karlsson, Barzal, McAvoy, etc (not just high end picks). A lot of young players are pretty damn good at hockey. Normal, because the way sports have become so lucrative, a LOT of parents have invested in that and even more kids have set this as the ultimate dream/goal.

Just on the Sens, you have guys like Karlsson, Chabot, Stone, Tkachuk, Pageau, White, etc who didn't take very long before having a good impact on the team. Some guys were "older" (ex : Hoffman, Dzingel) as they have been developped longer but do you think all our current players and prospects just got drafted in October? Some rookies have had several post draft years of development already...

In 3-5 years, these players are going to be :

Thomas Chabot : 27-29 y/o, 6-8 NHL seasons
Brady Tkachuk : 24-26 y/o, 5-7 NHL seasons
Tim Stuetzle : 22-24 y/o, 3-5 NHL seasons
Jake Sanderson : 21-23 y/o, 2-4 NHL seasons
Matt Murray : 29-31 y/o, 7-9 NHL seasons
Colin White : 27-29 y/o, 5-7 NHL seasons
Nick Paul : 29-31 y/o, 5-7 NHL seasons
Alex Galchenyuk : 30-32 y/o, 11-13 NHL seasons
Christian Wolanin : 29-31 y/o, 4-6 NHL seasons
Artyom Zub : 28-30 y/o, 3-5 NHL seasons (+6 seasons in KHL)
Josh Brown : 30-32 y/o, 5-7 NHL seasons
Connor Brown : 30-32 y/o, 7-9 NHL seasons

(not listing all the other vets, some will age out and some won't be here long term, just naming those that could still potentially be there)

Drake Batherson : 25-27 y/o, 5-7 pro seasons
Josh Norris : 24-26 y/o, 4-6 pro seasons
Erik Brannstrom : 24-26 y/o, 7-9 pro seasons
Logan Brown : 25-27 y/o, 5-7 pro seasons
Jacob Bernard-Docker : 23-25 y/o, 2-4 pro seasons
Alex Formenton : 24-26 y/o, 4-6 pro seasons
Shane Pinto : 23-25 y/o, 2-4 pro seasons
Rudolfs Balcers : 26-28 y/o, 8-10 pro seasons
Vitali Abramov : 25-27 y/o, 5-7 pro seasons
Joey Daccord : 27-29 y/o, 4-6 pro seasons
Filip Chlapik : 26-28 y/o, 6-8 pro seasons

I'll give you that several of the most recent drafted prospects won't have started to make an impact but look at what I just did for you. Look at those ages and experience!

It's not a matter of being "optimistic", it's a matter of being realistic. I don't think Melnyk bought out Bobby Ryan (big $ cost for a guy playing for another team) and threw 40 M$ at Dadonov and Murray to suck several more years lol. Like I have been repeating (and some others too), if they can only start challenging for a playoffs spot in 3 years, it's because the rebuild has gone off the trails in a major way.

You don't want to be wasting away several of Chabot/Tkachuk/Batherson/Norris/etc prime years. Let's cross our fingers that in 3 years the Sens will look like the Canucks/Canes/Avalanche (look at the age and experience of their best players)

IMO 3 to 5 yrs is not that long a time, as others have said they probably have another couple of yrs of rebuilding, some of their better prospects may take a few yrs before they turn pro. That is one of the reasons I liked them drafting a few overagers who could be NHL ready sooner. I hope you are right & they start challenging sooner rather than later but I doubt it. This is going to be a weird yr anyway we slice it & they could have a successful yr, but IMO it would not be a very good indicator of what their team will be like going forward. We'll see whose opinion is closer to what actually happens, good luck.

It's ok, it's your opinion like you say. Personally, I would be ready to take $ bets (always looking for new ways to make money lol)

3 to 5 years is not a long time in a whole life but in a NHL career, it's a pretty SIGINFICANT period of time.

In 3 to 5 years, we will know what pretty much ALL of these players are/will be, good or bad. If the Sens didn't start having any success during that 3-5 years period of time (making the playoffs, even winning a round), you can pretty much call it a write off and rebuild again.

I agree that it's not realistic to expect them to win a cup before that 3-5 years (if they ever will) but this was your original statement :

"3 to 5 yrs when I think that is when they could be ready to challenge for a playoff spot"

lol 3 to 5 years before they COULD be ready to CHALLENGE for a playoffs spot? I mean, it's not even a guarantee? If that's the case, the rebuild is a TOTAL failure.

 

[Xspyrit]

Try not to jump to extremes here, nobody said they would be a bottom 5 team in 2 yrs. While I think next yr is a write off, the following yr I expect them to be better & potentially be in a playoff race & maybe just miss the playoffs. The yr after that I expect them to make the playoffs & hopefully get out of the first rd. Yr after that I hope they are challenging for the divisional & maybe the conference championship & the cup the following yrs. Let's not forget that a few other teams are also rebuilding in their division, a few are declining & a few are trying to take that next step to challenge for a cup. It's not going to be easy or a cake walk, Ottawa will have to improve every yr & keep moving forward, but in sports with injuries & other stuff who knows what could happen, either way. Lots of weaker teams surprise stronger teams sometimes in the playoffs, the Leafs screwed us several times.

I think it was just semantics and you were not fully aware of what you said.

Now you're saying in 1 year they could potentially be in a playoff race... There's a MAJOR difference with your initial statement :

"3 to 5 yrs when I think that is when they could be ready to challenge for a playoff spot"


Also, a very important point, IF the team started sucking in 2017-18 because the impact players were aging out and because they had an awful prospect pool (ala Muckler pools), then I would 100% agree with you.

But it's really far from what happened. We already had a pretty good pool (Chabot, Batherson, Brown, White, Formenton, Wolanin, +++ and then Tkachuk) and traded players still in their prime. Look at the return for Erik Karlsson for example (Stuetzle, Norris, Tierney, Balcers, Sogaard, Meriläinen, Sharks 2nd in 2021), any team adding that kind of asset capital is making a HUGE BOUND forward. I mean we probably got our future 2 best Centers from that trade.

 

[aragorn]

I think it was just semantics and you were not fully aware of what you said.

Now you're saying in 1 year they could potentially be in a playoff race... There's a MAJOR difference with your initial statement :

"3 to 5 yrs when I think that is when they could be ready to challenge for a playoff spot"


Also, a very important point, IF the team started sucking in 2017-18 because the impact players were aging out and because they had an awful prospect pool (ala Muckler pools), then I would 100% agree with you.

But it's really far from what happened. We already had a pretty good pool (Chabot, Batherson, Brown, White, Formenton, Wolanin, +++ and then Tkachuk) and traded players still in their prime. Look at the return for Erik Karlsson for example (Stuetzle, Norris, Tierney, Balcers, Sogaard, Meriläinen, Sharks 2nd in 2021), any team adding that kind of asset capital is making a HUGE BOUND forward. I mean we probably got our future 2 best Centers from that trade.

Man, why are you so OVERLY concerned about my timeline? I've explained what I meant by 3 to 5 yrs, but I'll explain it again for you. This yr IMO could be a tough yr for them & I could be wrong, but even the owner thinks they will be in tough in a Canadian division where every team has gotten better. I could be wrong, but I doubt they make the playoffs this season.

The following yr I expect them to be much better & potentially could be fighting for a playoff spot but still not make it. I expect the following yr (yr 3) they should make the playoffs, but they might not either. I don't get what is difficult to understand about that. In yrs' 4 to 5 I expect them to be in the playoffs & fighting for a long playoff run, but that might not happen either. If you think that's too long of a time frame than that's your opinion. I'm just saying it could take longer to get there, but if it takes a shorter time frame than great, It's just an opinion.

It is semantics, but you also seem to interpret things that I don't mean or maybe I'm not explaining myself properly & need to be much more detailed oriented & explain every point. I agree the team has a great pool of prospects & maybe I think they will take a little longer to be NHL ready & producing to their potential than you do, but again that's a just a small difference in opinion. We also disagree as to who will be on this future team where you expect a few of the guys who are on the team now to be there when they are challenging for a cup & that is where we probably differ since I don't. We'll see.

 

[Xspyrit]

Man, why are you so OVERLY concerned about my timeline? I've explained what I meant by 3 to 5 yrs, but I'll explain it again for you. This yr IMO could be a tough yr for them & I could be wrong, but even the owner thinks they will be in tough in a Canadian division where every team has gotten better. I could be wrong, but I doubt they make the playoffs this season.

The following yr I expect them to be much better & potentially could be fighting for a playoff spot but still not make it. I expect the following yr (yr 3) they should make the playoffs, but they might not either. I don't get what is difficult to understand about that. In yrs' 4 to 5 I expect them to be in the playoffs & fighting for a long playoff run, but that might not happen either. If you think that's too long of a time frame than that's your opinion. I'm just saying it could take longer to get there, but if it takes a shorter time frame than great, It's just an opinion.

It is semantics, but you also seem to interpret things that I don't mean or maybe I'm not explaining myself properly & need to be much more detailed oriented & explain every point. I agree the team has a great pool of prospects & maybe I think they will take a little longer to be NHL ready & producing to their potential than you do, but again that's a just a small difference in opinion. We also disagree as to who will be on this future team where you expect a few of the guys who are on the team now to be there when they are challenging for a cup & that is where we probably differ since I don't. We'll see.

Why are you so upset? We're just discussing! (joke as you told me the same thing last time). It's just that I think the exactitude of words can be quite important in a statement made on a message board, particularly since it's the only form of communication we have. Of course, it'd be a lot easier to communicate face to face.

The statement that you made the last time and that we argued on, and that you are making again this time, is stating that you don't think they'll contend for the playoffs for another 3 seasons. It was ENTIRELY different from what you said in post #527 and now in post #541

I was obviously discussing that first statement and why I don't agree. My whole post was based on it. And because I disagreed you said "I think your view is overly optimistic" so I also replied to that. But now you are basically saying the exact same thing as I do (write off for the upcoming season and start getting much closer to the playoffs the following year). I think that's where the confusion came from.

For the record, I don't expect them to be serious contenders (if they ever do) until at least 3 more seasons. It'd be nice to make the playoffs as soon as 2021-22, which will most likely be the goal for the team. If they can make the playoffs in 2021-22 and continue rising, then the real window might open around 2023-24. Of course the sooner, the better

 

[aragorn]

Why are you so upset? We're just discussing! (joke as you told me the same thing last time). It's just that I think the exactitude of words can be quite important in a statement made on a message board, particularly since it's the only form of communication we have. Of course, it'd be a lot easier to communicate face to face.

The statement that you made the last time and that we argued on, and that you are making again this time, is stating that you don't think they'll contend for the playoffs for another 3 seasons. It was ENTIRELY different from what you said in post #527 and now in post #541

I was obviously discussing that first statement and why I don't agree. My whole post was based on it. And because I disagreed you said "I think your view is overly optimistic" so I also replied to that. But now you are basically saying the exact same thing as I do (write off for the upcoming season and start getting much closer to the playoffs the following year). I think that's where the confusion came from.

For the record, I don't expect them to be serious contenders (if they ever do) until at least 3 more seasons. It'd be nice to make the playoffs as soon as 2021-22, which will most likely be the goal for the team. If they can make the playoffs in 2021-22 and continue rising, then the real window might open around 2023-24. Of course the sooner, the better

Now you are saying exactly what I have been saying all along when I said I expect them to make the playoffs in 3 to 5 yrs. I didn't write it specifically, but I guess I should have that I expect it to be in 3 yrs more so than 5 yrs, but it's possible it could be longer. I assume the confusion came from you thinking I meant 5 yrs more so than 3 yrs, but that's not what I meant or better said hoped for. But I have been watching hockey & this team long enough to know they have disappointed us numerous times since their inception & it's quite possible with this franchise to disappoint us again.

We both seem to agree that they should make the playoffs in 3 yrs although IMO it could take longer. I concede that it could be sooner or later hence I said 3 to 5 yrs. You said if we are a bottom dwelling team in 2022 that the rebuild is a failure, but I never said anything of the sort. To me & this is why I didn't want to get into a debate with you is because it becomes a circular argument over a point that I see as insignificant whether they make the playoffs in 3 or 5 yrs. Lots of things can happen in professional sports that can change timelines due to one injury to a key player like Chabot or Murray for example or something else as we have seen with this team on numerous occasions. I agree in the exactitude of words on the internet, sometimes I assume people know what I mean, but the onus should also be on the person interpreting the post to get a better understanding of what is said before denouncing it.

 

[Xspyrit]

Now you are saying exactly what I have been saying all along when I said I expect them to make the playoffs in 3 to 5 yrs. I didn't write it specifically, but I guess I should have that I expect it to be in 3 yrs more so than 5 yrs, but it's possible it could be longer. I assume the confusion came from you thinking I meant 5 yrs more so than 3 yrs, but that's not what I meant or better said hoped for. But I have been watching hockey & this team long enough to know they have disappointed us numerous times since their inception & it's quite possible with this franchise to disappoint us again.

We both seem to agree that they should make the playoffs in 3 yrs although IMO it could take longer. I concede that it could be sooner or later hence I said 3 to 5 yrs. You said if we are a bottom dwelling team in 2022 that the rebuild is a failure, but I never said anything of the sort. To me & this is why I didn't want to get into a debate with you is because it becomes a circular argument over a point that I see as insignificant whether they make the playoffs in 3 or 5 yrs. Lots of things can happen in professional sports that can change timelines due to one injury to a key player like Chabot or Murray for example or something else as we have seen with this team on numerous occasions. I agree in the exactitude of words on the internet, sometimes I assume people know what I mean, but the onus should also be on the person interpreting the post to get a better understanding of what is said before denouncing it.

It seems that agreement is much closer than it seemed at the beginning. That is how I exactly see it :

- 2020-21 : no playoffs, another high pick because of playing in the canadian division. Bad timing but a blessing in disguise as a high pick is another great asset and anyway it will be a shortened season in a complex and weird situation

- 2021-22 : expecting a major step forward and stay in the playoffs race almost until the end

- 2022-23 : I'm expecting them to make the playoffs. They could fail and it wouldn't be the "end of the world" but like I said, the sooner the better as we need to benefit of ELCs/RFA contracts and primes as soon as possible to have a "wider window" overall

I took your initial statement as the team won't even sniff the playoffs for another 3 seasons (which in that case would mean the rebuild is going really badly). Even starting in 2021-22, if they are eliminated EARLY in the season, I will start to be worried. That's where we need to see a CLEAR progression. Many of the "rebuild pieces" will be in place and will have some valuable experience already. They are the future, we are going to sink or swim with them

So now with better communication and understanding, you're right that we shouldn't EXPECT them to make the playoffs this year and even the next 2 years. But hopefully they progress quickly enough to surprise.

You're totally right, "a lot of things can happen" and Melnyk should always be a worry, although the investments he made this offseason (notably Murray and Dadonov) are a good sign that he is ready to do what's necessary to have this team compete again.

 

[JD1]

It seems that agreement is much closer than it seemed at the beginning. That is how I exactly see it :

- 2020-21 : no playoffs, another high pick because of playing in the canadian division. Bad timing but a blessing in disguise as a high pick is another great asset and anyway it will be a shortened season in a complex and weird situation

- 2021-22 : expecting a major step forward and stay in the playoffs race almost until the end

- 2022-23 : I'm expecting them to make the playoffs. They could fail and it wouldn't be the "end of the world" but like I said, the sooner the better as we need to benefit of ELCs/RFA contracts and primes as soon as possible to have a "wider window" overall

I took your initial statement as the team won't even sniff the playoffs for another 3 seasons (which in that case would mean the rebuild is going really badly). Even starting in 2021-22, if they are eliminated EARLY in the season, I will start to be worried. That's where we need to see a CLEAR progression. Many of the "rebuild pieces" will be in place and will have some valuable experience already. They are the future, we are going to sink or swim with them

So now with better communication and understanding, you're right that we shouldn't EXPECT them to make the playoffs this year and even the next 2 years. But hopefully they progress quickly enough to surprise.

You're totally right, "a lot of things can happen" and Melnyk should always be a worry, although the investments he made this offseason (notably Murray and Dadonov) are a good sign that he is ready to do what's necessary to have this team compete again.

I see us as a bubble team in 21 and a heartbreaker if we don't make the playoffs and it'll raise concerns if we don't make it

 

[Xspyrit]

I see us as a bubble team in 21 and a heartbreaker if we don't make the playoffs and it'll raise concerns if we don't make it

By 2021, you mean the upcoming season? Or 2021-22 (hard to say when that season would begin)

I don't see them having much of a chance this season. I'd be more hopeful if it was a full season (giving more time to young players to progress, sort of like 2014-15) and if we were not going in a Canadian division.

 

[JD1]

By 2021, you mean the upcoming season? Or 2021-22 (hard to say when that season would begin)

I don't see them having much of a chance this season. I'd be more hopeful if it was a full season (giving more time to young players to progress, sort of like 2014-15) and if we were not going in a Canadian division.

I mean the 21-22 season with this coming season being the 20-21 season but starting jan feb 21.

 

[sirom]

Are there 15 3C’s better then CT ? I’m not sure ... but I’d rather have a better 3C than CT to win playoff games. Either way, it feels like teams with CT type 3C’s struggle in or making playoffs.

I agree with the opportunity Brown was given. Center is a harder position to break into to than RW. However, we watched White struggle so much and he never gets sent down (he was eligible most of last season).

If White is better then Brown I’d like to see White play over Brown, I’m just worried that if Brown is better than White, White will still play over Brown (and/or Norris)

I guess you didn't watch CT in 2016 in the Western conference as 3c/2c helping them get past Nash and Blues!!

 

[sirom]

I guess you didn't watch CT in 2016 in the Western conference as 3c/2c helping them get past Nash and Blues!!

Sharks' Tierney doesn't shy away from tough matchups

 

[Sweatred]

Sharks' Tierney doesn't shy away from tough matchups

It also doesn’t mean he controls those matchups - work through the Canadian team division and see where CT slots on the other Teams and you’ll get a picture of his value

I like CT, I just don’t think he slots “above average” anywhere other than as a 4C.