Sens Shot Predicting the Opening Day Lineup

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JD1

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Does playoff competitive mean a bubble team with a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs?

I don't expect the team to become a consistent playoff team until 2022-23 at the earliest.

To me it means we're a bubble team in 21-22. Maybe we make it or not, but we should be there to the end. And beyond that yes consistently for a solid run
 

JD1

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I can’t see Norris/Brown, Batherson, and Stutzle/Gal equaling let alone surpassing Pageau, Duclair and Ennis for offence. A Competitive lottery team would be a good step with the kids starting to carry the team.

Your far too disingenuous Sweatred...constantly pumping your narrative

What is it that you're concerned about? Surpassing Pageau's 132nd ranking in the league in p/60 at 5 on 5? What about the PP? I think we can manage to squeak out a 30th place PP finish and surpass last year's showing

I think you know well that we signed Dandonov. Why is he not in your list of guys to pick up departed offence? Don't you view him as an upgrade on Duclair?

Give it up man. Your over the top non stop hyperbole doesn't lend itself to a whole lot of credibility
 

God Flower

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Are there 15 3C’s better then CT ? I’m not sure ... but I’d rather have a better 3C than CT to win playoff games. Either way, it feels like teams with CT type 3C’s struggle in or making playoffs.

I agree with the opportunity Brown was given. Center is a harder position to break into to than RW. However, we watched White struggle so much and he never gets sent down (he was eligible most of last season).

If White is better then Brown I’d like to see White play over Brown, I’m just worried that if Brown is better than White, White will still play over Brown (and/or Norris)

I'm just speculating here, but maybe it's more than just on ice play with Brown? Maybe they are trying to send him another message with regards to his attitude and approach. And maybe it's the exact opposite with White. Maybe White was doing all the right things outside of a game (trains hard, shows up early/stays late, watches video, doesn't pout, stays positive, etc...) to help him break out of a slump, so he gets a little extra rope with the coach an GM. But if he craps the bed again next season, that rope will be gonzo. Just like any job, you eventually have to perform, regardless of your attitude.

They traded up to get Logan Brown. They like Logan Brown, but clearly Logan is doing (or not doing) something to piss people off. He knows why. This training camp is huge. Put up, or shut up.

And White is not blocking anyone. Brown needed to grow up and Norris wasn't ready. And they're so in love with Norris, I wouldn't worry about anyone blocking him. He'll be given plenty of opportunity to succeed.
 

JD1

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I'm just speculating here, but maybe it's more than just on ice play with Brown? Maybe they are trying to send him another message with regards to his attitude and approach. And maybe it's the exact opposite with White. Maybe White was doing all the right things outside of a game (trains hard, shows up early/stays late, watches video, doesn't pout, stays positive, etc...) to help him break out of a slump, so he gets a little extra rope with the coach an GM. But if he craps the bed again next season, that rope will be gonzo. Just like any job, you eventually have to perform, regardless of your attitude.

They traded up to get Logan Brown. They like Logan Brown, but clearly Logan is doing (or not doing) something to piss people off. He knows why. This training camp is huge. Put up, or shut up.

And White is not blocking anyone. Brown needed to grow up and Norris wasn't ready. And they're so in love with Norris, I wouldn't worry about anyone blocking him. He'll be given plenty of opportunity to succeed.

In 18-19, White had an opportunity due to the lineup we had. He seized that opportunity and prospered. He didn't show up to the 19-20 competing for a job. He had a new contract and a job. Unfortunately he had a camp injury. That injury impacted his play probably up to Christmas last year. He was bumped down the lineup and pretty much was starting from the bottom of the lineup as the year turned. He worked his way back up and was doing quite well by the time things got shut down. He would have finished with likely something in the low 30s in 70 games played in an injury plagued down year. Not great but not unprecedented for a young player or one who played thru injury.

He had a solid year the year prior and got rewarded with the one way. There's nothing about White and his development that's atypical in the NHL. hopefully this year he's healthy and he's the player we saw post Christmas on day one of this season
 

Sweatred

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Your far too disingenuous Sweatred...constantly pumping your narrative

Give it up man. Your over the top non stop hyperbole doesn't lend itself to a whole lot of credibility

Nice try ... what a silly idea to support my own idea. The team stripped most of the talent that carried the team last year to a competitive bottom 5 season. Asking the kids (and Dadonov) to replace that play is a big ask - not hyperbole. It will be a great sign if they can.

I’d say your over the top... take your hyperbolic helmet off for once. You want to scream about every post I make but you flat out ignore every chance I give you to defend your position. Your posts are loud and hallow. It’s boring.
 

JD1

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Nice try ... what a silly idea to support my own idea. The team stripped most of the talent that carried the team last year to a competitive bottom 5 season. Asking the kids (and Dadonov) to replace that play is a big ask - not hyperbole. It will be a great sign if they can.

I’d say your over the top... take your hyperbolic helmet off for once. You want to scream about every post I make but you flat out ignore every chance I give you to defend your position. Your posts are loud and hallow. It’s boring.

Your issue Sweatred is you can't pump your narrative without the hyperbole

You wondering where the replacement offence is coming from and leaving Dandonov out of the list of replacements is you being you

Keep on being you.
 

Sweatred

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Mostly I agree, but I think it has more to do with roles than skill. Last year guys were all slotted too high imo, and that boosted their production.

The thing is, nobody would have seen Pageau, Duclair and Ennis equaling the offence they put up prior to them doing it. None of them, save Duclair, really has a compelling offensive skillset, but these are NHL players, so when you put them in the prime offensive roles, the points will come.

Galchenyuk got put in a scoring role early in his career with Mtl, and crushed it (offensively only), his last 3 seasons with Mtl averaged 24G and 55 pts, he certainly has the skill to match any of Pageau, Ennis, or Duclair's production.

I think the tough part is seeing how long it takes for these guys to take that top dog role, Batherson won't put up big numbers if Connor Brown and Dadonov ends up with the top mins, L.Brown/Norris won't put up big numbers if White or Tierney are getting all the prime mins, Galchenyuk/Stuetzle won't put up big points if Tkachuk and... ok well that 2nd line LW spot seems ripe for the taking, so there's that. DJ seems to like his vets, guys he can trust and who show consistent effort. Rookies won't be thrust into top roles the way Ennis, Pageau and Duclair essentially got them by default last year.

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Sweatred

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Your issue Sweatred is you can't pump your narrative without the hyperbole

You wondering where the replacement offence is coming from and leaving Dandonov out of the list of replacements is you being you

Keep on being you.
Loud ... Hollow ... you could put your big boy pants and tell me that you think Dadonov, Norris, and White (or whoever) can replace Pager, Duc, and Ennis ... but hey... thats not your thing ... That’s why your constant screaming rings hollow. Try backing up your criticism with some substance instead of just auto disagreeing and telling everyone how wrong they are.
 
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Sweatred

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Any info on a stat like “what each minute of pp time is worth”. For example, even a weak forward should expect 20 pts off 2:00 min/game of pp time or 20pts/160 min or 0.125pt/min ?

There must be some measure to filter between two players who are similar but one is getting :90 more PP time a game.
 

Sweatred

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I can’t see the Sens using Brady White Dadonov as a first line. It puts way to many veterans on one line and doesn’t give enough support to the rookies.

I hope we see

Brady Norris and a mix of Brown/Bath

GAl/TS with CT and Dadonov.
 
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Micklebot

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Any info on a stat like “what each minute of pp time is worth”. For example, even a weak forward should expect 20 pts off 2:00 min/game of pp time or 20pts/160 min or 0.125pt/min ?

There must be some measure to filter between two players who are similar but one is getting :90 more PP time a game.
Not that i know of, but a really bad pp puts up about 5 goals per 60 mins, so 2 mins a game over 82 games means being on the ice for an expected 14 goals or so. On average 2.7 points are handed out for each goal, so about 38 pts to be assigned across the 5 players on the ice. That would suggest about 7-8 pts per player but i suspect the 3 forwards would get the lions share and whoever ends up in the shooter role (for example Hoffman on a Boucher run PP) would also take a bigger share. I'd also guess that centers hold a systemic advantage because they get a touch guaranteed for every faceoff.

There are too many variables imo to say just being on a PP should result in x pts/60, there is only one puck to go around afterall. I'd rather be the assigned shooter on unit two than the dman on unit 1 (assuming you aren't talking about an elite offensive dman)
 
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Sweatred

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Not that i know of, but a really bad pp puts up about 5 goals per 60 mins, so 2 mins a game over 82 games means being on the ice for an expected 14 goals or so. On average 2.7 points are handed out for each goal, so about 38 pts to be assigned across the 5 players on the ice. That would suggest about 7-8 pts per player but i suspect the 3 forwards would get the lions share and whoever ends up in the shooter role (for example Hoffman on a Boucher run PP) would also take a bigger share. I'd also guess that centers hold a systemic advantage because they get a touch guaranteed for every faceoff.

There are too many variables imo to say just being on a PP should result in x pts/60, there is only one puck to go around afterall. I'd rather be the assigned shooter on unit two than the dman on unit 1 (assuming you aren't talking about an elite offensive dman)

Thats a nice break down ... it will be interesting to see how PP time is split between the Center and Right wing positions.

Dadonov is automatic, Bath should be there, Brown probably outplays Bath and who knows what White does at RW or C.

Same issue at Center with Norris, Brown, Arti, and CT out scoring them all but decent on the PK. Maybe Norris plays wing on the PP.

I assume Brady and Dadonov may be the only two constant PP pieces.
 

Micklebot

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I can’t see the Sens using Brady White Dadonov as a first line. It puts way to many veterans on one line and doesn’t give enough support to the rookies.

I hope we see

Brady Norris and a mix of Brown/Bath

GAl/TS with CT and Dadonov.

Still lots of vets to go around, Galchenyuk, Tierney, C.Brown, Watson, and Anisimov all have just as much or more experience than Tkachuk or White. Paul in a 4th line role probably doesn't need babysitting either. That's two experienced guys per line, granted a guy like Gally is suspect defensively so he'll be on a more offensive oriented line.
 

Sweatred

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Still lots of vets to go around, Galchenyuk, Tierney, C.Brown, Watson, and Anisimov all have just as much or more experience than Tkachuk or White. Paul in a 4th line role probably doesn't need babysitting either. That's two experienced guys per line, granted a guy like Gally is suspect defensively so he'll be on a more offensive oriented line.

I haven’t followed GAL enough but. He doesn’t sound like the type of vet you want to have carry your shinny new prospects in their rookie year. CT and Brown can but they are also the most reliable defensive forwardS that may be asked to match up.
 

Burrowsaurus

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Brady - White - Batherson

Galchenyuk - Tiermey - Dadonov

Stutzle - norris - connor brown

paul - anisimov - watson

Chabot - zaitsey buddy

Wolanin - Brown

reilly - gudbranson

zub


this is openining night when they quickly realize galchenyuk a top six center this will change youll see.
 

JD1

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Loud ... Hollow ... you could put your big boy pants and tell me that you think Dadonov, Norris, and White (or whoever) can replace Pager, Duc, and Ennis ... but hey... thats not your thing ... That’s why your constant screaming rings hollow. Try backing up your criticism with some substance instead of just auto disagreeing and telling everyone how wrong they are.

Sure

Dandonov is more than an adequate replacement for Duclair's offence

To be frank, i didn't think that needed to be said
 

Sweatred

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Sure

Dandonov is more than an adequate replacement for Duclair's offence

To be frank, i didn't think that needed to be said

and Ennis ... and Pager ... you forgot a few. Keep up. Your the one that jumped all over my post. Replacing those three gets us back to a bottom 5 team.
 

Sweatred

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Brady - White - Batherson

Galchenyuk - Tiermey - Dadonov

Stutzle - norris - connor brown

paul - anisimov - watson

Chabot - zaitsey buddy

Wolanin - Brown

reilly - gudbranson

zub


this is openining night when they quickly realize galchenyuk a top six center this will change youll see.

I fear a season of White, Gal, CT, and Arti down the middle. Mostly cause I want Norris and Brown playing.
 

Burrowsaurus

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I fear a season of White, Gal, CT, and Arti down the middle. Mostly cause I want Norris and Brown playing.
i thoink one of them will be playing. not both. i have norris there but now that i think of it i think it may be brown.
 

Xspyrit

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What we should expect and what we'll have to discover

It sounds like some people think this team will and should tank for a longer period of time. But just looking at the "expected" building blocks, that's already five (5) top-10 worthy picks right there. Plus there is some wild cards and a LOT of good/great prospects that could themselves be worthy of high end picks (most were 1st/2nd round picks to begin)

Building blocks

Brady Tkachuk 4th OA : 2 NHL seasons

Tim Stuetzle 3rd OA : 1 pro season in DEL

Thomas Chabot 18th OA (goes top-10 in re-drafts) : 3 NHL seasons

Jake Sanderson 5th OA : should start being a regular in 2021-22

Matt Murray 83th OA (goes top-10 in re-drafts) : 4 NHL seasons, career 0.914 SV% in regular season, 0.921 SV% in playoffs. 2 Stanley Cup Rings. Already had quite the success at an age (26 y/o) most goalies only start having a bit of success

Support players (could be made expendable if they regress or don't rebound, etc)

Colin White 21st OA (still goes 1st round in re-drafts) : 5 years contract, 23 y/o, career 0.45 PPG, only 155 NHL GP so should be a bit more productive than that going forward

Nick Paul 101st OA : 2 years contract, 25 y/o, career 0.25 PPG, only 112 NHL GP so should be a bit more productive than that going forward. But defensive forward anyway

Wild Cards (hard to expect what they'll do, they could be worth keeping or you move on to something else)

Alex Galchenyuk 3rd OA (still goes 1st round in re-drafts) : 26 y/o, career 0.58 PPG. What kind of player will he be moving forward?

Christian Wolanin 107th OA : 25 y/o, career 0.35 PPG but only 43 GP. He's a guy that never really had the chance to prove himself in the NHL : late bloomer, drafted as overager, long college route, AHL, NHL, significant injury, covid. His skillset and AHL stats (0.78 PPG in 2018-19) and even small NHL sample size suggest that there's potential here. Would be considered a pretty good prospect if he was younger, which is contextual in his case.

Artyom Zub (never drafted) : 25 y/o, KHL veteran, big wildcard, could be anything from top-4 D-man to going back to Russia in the near future.

Josh Brown 152th OA : 26 y/o, career 0.11 PPG but only 93 GP. Drafted as an overager (19 y/o), was a 6th round so long term project. Only fully graduated last year. Will never be a top player but he's the type of player that could pull a DeMelo


Stop Gap Veterans (some could potentially be re-signed)

Yevgeni Dadonov : 3 years contract, 31 y/o, 0.81 PPG since he came back to the NHL in 2017-18
Connor Brown : 3 years contract, 26 y/o, 0.61 PPG with Ottawa last year and career 0.44 PPG
Chris Tierney : 2 years contract, 26 y/o, 0.56 PPG with Ottawa the last 2 seasons
Austin Watson : 3 years contract, 28 y/o, career 0.25 PPG, pure defensive forward (almost 75% of dZS)
Artem Anisimov : 1 year contract, 32 y/o, career 0.49 PPG, I don't see him being kept beyond this year
Nikita Zaitsev : 4 years contract, 29 y/o, career 0.27 PPG, don't think he'll be there for the whole 4 years
Erik Gudbranson : 1 year contract, 28 y/o, career 0.14 PPG, I don't see him being kept beyond this year
Mike Reilly : 1 year contract, 27 y/o, career 0.26 PPG, I don't see him being kept beyond this year

Marcus Hogberg and Christian Jaros are not really veterans but hard to see them becoming long term pieces, so I have them as stop gaps until they prove otherwise.

Other Prospects : the question is how much they will he outplay their draft position, or not? Which will be long term pieces, or even building blocks? Even if they don't all hit, some will and provide quality all over the line-up.

Drake Batherson (121st OA in 2017)
Josh Norris (19th OA in 2017)
Erik Brannstrom (15th OA in 2017)
Logan Brown (11th OA in 2016)
Jacob Bernard-Docker (26th OA in 2018)
Alex Formenton (47th OA in 2017)
Shane Pinto (32nd OA in 2019)
Ridly Greig (28th OA in 2020)
Roby Jarventie (33rd OA in 2020)
Rudolfs Balcers (142th OA in 2015)
Vitali Abramov (65th OA in 2016)
Joey Daccord (199th OA in 2015)
Lassi Thomson (19th OA in 2019)
Egor Sokolov (61st OA in 2020)
Tyler Kleven (44th OA in 2020)
Filip Chlapik (48th OA in 2015)
Mads Søgaard (37th OA in 2019)

Etc

Would be ideal to start answering some questions as soon as possible (as we would be in process of doing if there was no covid), particularly regarding wild cards and prospects. With all the assets the Sens currently have, I don't think they're that far off from being a good team again.
 
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Sweatred

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i thoink one of them will be playing. not both. i have norris there but now that i think of it i think it may be brown.

They both should be ... but I doubt they both will be ... maybe expanded rosters and no AHL gets the Sens out of a hard decision.
 

Burrowsaurus

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They both should be ... but I doubt they both will be ... maybe expanded rosters and no AHL gets the Sens out of a hard decision.
Could be. Also have to think anisimov will not get 100% of games. So Chlapik and one of norris/brown will fight for those other games
 

Sweatred

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Could be. Also have to think anisimov will not get 100% of games. So Chlapik and one of norris/brown will fight for those other games

I’m hoping we may see a LW/C sorta split between players like Brady, brown, Norris, Gal, CT, Paul etc.

They have all been taking faceoffs and moving the pieces around (like CT to a blend of C/LW) could clear room for Brown at Center.
 

Alf Silfversson

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What we should expect and what we'll have to discover


Josh Brown 152th OA (still goes 1st round in re-drafts) : 26 y/o, career 0.11 PPG but only 93 GP. Drafted as an overager (19 y/o), was a 6th round so long term project. Only fully graduated last year. Will never be a top player but he's the type of player that could pull a DeMelo

I'm guessing this is a typo, but still I want to see the guy who puts Josh Brown in the 1st round of 2013 redrafts. :laugh:

So I can never read any of his stuff again. :DD
 
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