I think you're a little aggressive at this point with moving guys out. Paul as an example is i think going to have a great 5 year run as a dependable bottom 6 player. Then you've got White and Tierney. They're both fine players, they're just slotted too high in your lineup. I see them sliding down the lineup, not out the door. The big issue for this team is a 1C and getting the slotting right on a lot of guys.
Sens Shot Predicting the Opening Day Lineup
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I think you're a little aggressive at this point with moving guys out. Paul as an example is i think going to have a great 5 year run as a dependable bottom 6 player. Then you've got White and Tierney. They're both fine players, they're just slotted too high in your lineup. I see them sliding down the lineup, not out the door. The big issue for this team is a 1C and getting the slotting right on a lot of guys.
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They are not fine players. They are below average players where ever they slot, and it’s magnified when you consider GAR/$$, or $/roll. Nobody wants a guy like Tierney as anything but a 4C and not at $3+ million.
White is probably our 5th RW as thing stand and he definitely isn’t a 1-2C. I Doubt he ever evolves into a good 3C leaving him as a $5 million dollar 4C or bad 2C.
Both these guys should be shipped out unless they have incredible improvements and changes in the style of play.
Tierney can at least play a light 2C or 3C style game when needed.
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Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
lol Tierney is a 4th line C and White a 5th RW
Thank God a mod finally saved me from that pain.
Ok... What is the problem of having Nick Paul, Evgeni Dadonov and Connor Brown in the line-up? Quality NHL players if you ask me. They always bring positives in a game. They all haven't played a single game on their new contracts (2, 3 and 3 years respectively)
And even if Sanderson "takes his spot", what's wrong with having Wolanin? Why wouldn't we want a left side of Chabot, Sanderson and Wolanin? The goal is to build a strong overall line-up and I think Wolanin could really help doing that from the 3rd pair and PP
What with this idea of wanting to trade almost everybody? I mean, there's not a SINGLE player left from the 2017 ECF Cup run which was just 3 years ago. We just finished trading the whole line up and you want to do it again? lol
Yes, several are transition pieces, but some are also auditionning for being longer term pieces. Example, if Galchenyuk has turned the corner in maturity and dedication to team systems, he certainly has the talent to be a player. Balcers also might prove himself like he started doing but unfortunately got injured in pre-season last year. White is signed 5 more years, he's another guy that will be looking to rebound. He's very good friends with Chabot and certainly wants to be part of the solution as a guy that just turned 23 y/o last time he played. He's not just a "transition piece"
But I agree with the principle that the future is guys like Tkachuk, Stuetzle, Norris, Batherson, Formenton, Chabot, Sanderson, Brannstrom but outside of these few "safe" ones to be good NHL players, the rest will have to battle and prove they belong. They won't all succeed, or might have to do it elsewhere. Some will also surprise and be better than expected (ex : Pinto? Jarventie? etc)
Dadonov is signed for 3 seasons. Saying he "is not going to be on any future SC contender" is trying to see way too far in the future. Heck, we don't even know what January will look like. I don't think we live in a world where things are easily "predictable", even less than before. A LOT of things can still happen in those 3 years. Some teams need to shed salary or cap hit, Sens have a lot of it and Melnyk looks suddenly more comfortable financially. Reality is we have no idea how things will look like at the start of the 2021-22 season.
The Avalanche had 48 pts in 2016-17. They followed that up with 95 pts in 2017-18. I could find so many more examples. The important is to have the potential. Then you don't know when things will happen, unless you have a crystal ball of course.
That being said, I agree with most of what you are saying but I really don't think it's going to be keep Tkachuk and Chabot and move out the rest.
Thank God a mod finally saved me from that pain.
Ok... What is the problem of having Nick Paul, Evgeni Dadonov and Connor Brown in the line-up? Quality NHL players if you ask me. They always bring positives in a game. They all haven't played a single game on their new contracts (2, 3 and 3 years respectively)
And even if Sanderson "takes his spot", what's wrong with having Wolanin? Why wouldn't we want a left side of Chabot, Sanderson and Wolanin? The goal is to build a strong overall line-up and I think Wolanin could really help doing that from the 3rd pair and PP
What with this idea of wanting to trade almost everybody? I mean, there's not a SINGLE player left from the 2017 ECF Cup run which was just 3 years ago. We just finished trading the whole line up and you want to do it again? lol
Yes, several are transition pieces, but some are also auditionning for being longer term pieces. Example, if Galchenyuk has turned the corner in maturity and dedication to team systems, he certainly has the talent to be a player. Balcers also might prove himself like he started doing but unfortunately got injured in pre-season last year. White is signed 5 more years, he's another guy that will be looking to rebound. He's very good friends with Chabot and certainly wants to be part of the solution as a guy that just turned 23 y/o last time he played. He's not just a "transition piece"
But I agree with the principle that the future is guys like Tkachuk, Stuetzle, Norris, Batherson, Formenton, Chabot, Sanderson, Brannstrom but outside of these few "safe" ones to be good NHL players, the rest will have to battle and prove they belong. They won't all succeed, or might have to do it elsewhere. Some will also surprise and be better than expected (ex : Pinto? Jarventie? etc)
Dadonov is signed for 3 seasons. Saying he "is not going to be on any future SC contender" is trying to see way too far in the future. Heck, we don't even know what January will look like. I don't think we live in a world where things are easily "predictable", even less than before. A LOT of things can still happen in those 3 years. Some teams need to shed salary or cap hit, Sens have a lot of it and Melnyk looks suddenly more comfortable financially. Reality is we have no idea how things will look like at the start of the 2021-22 season.
The Avalanche had 48 pts in 2016-17. They followed that up with 95 pts in 2017-18. I could find so many more examples. The important is to have the potential. Then you don't know when things will happen, unless you have a crystal ball of course.
That being said, I agree with most of what you are saying but I really don't think it's going to be keep Tkachuk and Chabot and move out the rest.
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I think we've long established that you're on your own island wrt to your thoughts on White. I'll just leave it at that.
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aragorn
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Do you think that Dadonov, C. Brown & N. Paul will still be here in 3 to 5 yrs if that is the timeline for them to start competing for a cup? Dadonov is 31, C. brown is 26 & N. Paul is 25, all good h0ckey players now, but what will they be like in 3 to 5 yrs. When I say a future team I don't mean next yr, I man 3 to 5 yrs when I think that is when they could be ready to challenge for a playoff spot & hopefully a SC. That's why I don't see most of these players on a future team, by then I expect the prospects to have replaced them. How far down the road are we suppose to look or not look, I didn't know their was only a certain range or timeline we could forecast?
Why not keep Wolanin? Because he is more of the same on the left side & IMO Kleven will be that 3rd pairing left shot defenceman. Wolanin is also already 25 yrs old, he'll be good for a few yrs, but IMO he will eventually be replaced by a younger better Sanderson. I still like bigger & tougher shutdown defencemen on the 3rd pairing, maybe that will be phased out by then but I doubt it. I don't see Galchenyuk or Balcers as future players on this team, I think the left side will consist of Tkachuk, Stuetzle, Jarventie & Formenton. And if they move Stuetzle to centre than they can add a LWer for the 4th line, likely one already in their org.
Isn't that obvious from the lineups I post about a future team who I see on that team & most of the players today are not on it? And in your last sentence you agree who you think are the future, now that doesn't mean they will all work out & every player I mentioned actually gets traded or every prospect I mentioned actually makes the team or isn't traded, we don't know what will happen. That's just my opinion or better put, who I think should stay & who should not, people are welcome to disagree, it's just one man's opinion. Another point of contention is how long it will take for the team to be competitive & eventually challenge for a SC, everyone seems to have different opinions about that as well. And then there are the intangibles regarding the league, Covid, Salary Cap, Owner, NHLPA, all the things in future that could cause other problems to operating the franchise that could affect the roster. Who knows?
aragorn
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You could be right, my projections are for 3 to 5 yrs & it could even take a little longer. While Ottawa has a great prospect pool today, nobody knows when all these guys are going to be NHL ready & then produce in the NHL to their potential ... IF ... they ever do. It's just a guessing game. Remember when others were criticizing me for having Paul in the lineup at all, most had given up on him & called him a career minor leaguer, now I have to defend moving him out hahaha. Fun times.
I expect that most of the prospects that will be on a future team are already in their org with the exception of the next two drafts. While a couple are already on the team & some in Belleville, the rest are still finishing up their junior/NCAA & European careers. But some could be traded for other players too over the course of the next few yrs. I do agree that some players will slide down in the lineup as better prospects replace them, but eventually I expect them to be moved out. However, how long that takes is the unknown, but I expect within 5 yrs most of todays roster to be gone. We'll see.
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I agree ... UFA alone will move a bunch of these guys along. No point funding their retirement contracts if we have a strong farm system.
I'll bet more people believe White is a top 9 NHLer than the middle 6 AHLer you tend to peg him at.
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Well ... where would you slot him? DJ sees him as a right winger ...
Dadonov
Batherson
Brown
Watson
Abramov
He sure isn’t a 1-2C or a shutdown C so other than forcing him into a lineup I don’t see where he logically fits. Maybe you argue he’s better than Batherson ? Possible, but I doubt that. I’d expect Norris or Brown to do more with 1-2C minutes than what White will provide. Chaplik is a better 3-4C and CT is better than them all.
Micklebot
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I've seen a couple times people say the org or DJ sees White as a RW but i haven't seen the actual quote. Not saying it isn't true but do you have a source for that?
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No ... we hear it a lot in the media but I’ll ultimately DJ plays him at center too. Given White’s style of play I can’t see it conforming to DJ’s optimal 1-2-3 type Center.
We have a creative 6.6 prospect, a combine winner style prospect, and our 3OA to groom as 1-2C.
White’s legs and motor are there, but to play a 2C he needs better puck distribution and protection skills. To play a 3C he needs more protection and to gain the ability to separate players, from the puck, win faceoffs, and the odd body check would help.
He had already told us he has gained some muscle and strength. BS aside I’d love for him to transition towards the 3C roll with this team over two years while getting out of Brown, Norris, Stutzle’s way as they develop as 1-2C’s. It would be a decent slot for his contract and I can’t see him outplaying Dadonov, Brown, Bath, or even Watson on the right side.
Id like to see White on lines combos like
Paul White Watson
Formenton White Brown
Paul can take some of the faceoffs.
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DrSense
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You do realize Tierney has been as productive and effective as Pageau at this point in his career? To suggest he can't be a solid bottom 6 center is a pretty extreme statement not shared by any hockey folks. He is basically our coaches favorite forward based on his words and actions re the match-ups Smith asks of Tierney over the past two seasons. At a minimum he can be our checking center, but the reality is he's our best offensive center right now too. We all hope that changes this season, but way too early to count those chickens.
White is a question mark, but nothwithstanding his contract, there is little point not giving him some ice time and position him for some success this year to see whether we have something there or not. He would be an obvious potential exposure in the expansion draft if he doesn't take a step forward.
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He isn’t defensive enough IMO to play as an above average 3C and makes may to much as a 4C.
I like CT, but I don’t think he is above average at any slot. He’s better than many 4C but I’d rather spend that money in the top of the lineup.
Hammering White into the 1C slot comes at a cost of not developing Norris or Brown at that same slot. We are teetering on the verge of moving away from Brown because the player doesn’t feel he has been given a fair shot... and he is right. White had 2 consecutive years with the best line mates in our organization had while Brown is grinding out the AHL. Brown was probably better than White last year. All I’m advocating for is to give Brown (and Norris) a chance to break in with skilled players like MD, BT, DAD etc. The same opportunity that White was extended.
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I hate this phrase but context matters and you've been advocating for a lot more than Brown getting a shot as part of your White offensive
Yes, White played with Stone. At the time we had Duchene. Having Stone anchoring one line and Duchene another was probably our most viable setup. White and Duchene on the same line wasn't going to happen because they are both centers
Brown had a shot last year. He played 23 games and got 11:45 minutes of ice-time. And his time was higher in the first 10 games than the last. It would have been great for Brown to have demonstrated he was ready but unfortunately he wasn't able to do that. Hopefully he is able to do that this year
As for Tierney, everyone is entitled to opinions so certainly you are to yours. But to say he's not an above average 3C is stretching it imo.
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Are there 15 3C’s better then CT ? I’m not sure ... but I’d rather have a better 3C than CT to win playoff games. Either way, it feels like teams with CT type 3C’s struggle in or making playoffs.
I agree with the opportunity Brown was given. Center is a harder position to break into to than RW. However, we watched White struggle so much and he never gets sent down (he was eligible most of last season).
If White is better then Brown I’d like to see White play over Brown, I’m just worried that if Brown is better than White, White will still play over Brown (and/or Norris)
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
Personally, if it takes 3-5 years to be ready to challenge for a playoff spot I will label this rebuild as a major failure. Heck, I might be doing that as soon as the 2021-22 season. They need to AT least stay in the playoffs race until at least after the trade deadline.
I'm a very down-to-earth person and quite patient in general but also do not enjoy/accept failure that much, and not too long. We have been at the bottom of the barrel for 3 years already. The Sens really didn't start their rebuild from scratch (situation would be etxremely different then), they already had a pretty good prospect pool (see 2018 pool) and just traded several stars in their prime, got a massive return for Karlsson and just drafted 2 top-5 picks in a super stacked draft. That's on top of Chabot and Tkachuk.
You initially said "Over the next couple of seasons I would trade most of the players in that lineup". Of course, 5 years is very different from "the next couple". Yes, in 5 years most actual players will have been replaced by prospects. Prospects will start graduating in bunches starting this season (if there's any)
3 NHL years is very far away in the future even if time goes fast in general. Things change a LOT in the NHL from a season to another, even moreso than before. We already discussed this before but I can't see the Sens waiting patiently 3-5 years before being able to challenge for a playoff spot. If it takes that long it's because the rebuild will have gone off the rails already and several of Stuetzle/Chabot/Tkachuk/Sanderson/Norris/ Batherson/Formenton/Brannstrom/Batherson/Murray will not meet expectations. If we are still in the bottom 5-10 in 3 years, you can expect a lot of heads to have rolled already... again
Good/great young talent doesn't need to be 27 y/o to start being good in today's NHL. Actually, that's an age where several start regressing due to injuries, etc. I don't expect the team to peak before that 3-5 years period but with all the talent amassed, they will be targetting to compete as soon as possible (which kinda explains why they would spend a lot of money on guys like Dadonov and Murray) and not wait for Chabot to be 27-28 y/o to do so.
Dadonov was signed 3 years and will/should be an usefull skilled veteran until he ages out of utility (he's 31). We shouldn't need anymore towards the end of his contract. Luxury stop gap
Connor Brown is only 26, just signed a 3 years extension and if he is still a valuable part of the team by then, I could easily see him get another contract after that. It will also depend on what kind of other player the teams develop for the bottom-6, because that's where you want Brown ideally as you are trying to build a solid bottom-6
Nick Paul, a bit of the same situation as Brown. He's on a 2 years contract but he has been in the organization longer. Depending on how things play out the next 2 seasons, that's another guy that could be a staple on the team's bottom-6 for several years.
Wolanin, same group age as the last 2 but you're right, he might face a big log-jam on LD. That being said, it will all depend on what happens with Brannstrom, will they trade him? Will they play him on RD? I can't see Brannstrom accepting to be "just" a 3rd pairing LD with not much PP time. Depending on what happens, Wolanin could be a real strenght as your 3rd pairing LD and 2nd PP anchor.
Stuetzle, not sure why you see him as a LWer, Sens drafted him to have him as their top line center but if Logan Brown booms, maybe he would be kept on LW but chances are not super high for Brown to be a legit 1st line Center.
Galchenyuk, very hard to say, will depend what kind of player he wants to be and can be... If he's like before, he shouldn't be here very long.
Balcers could be a nice long term piece as a versatile top-9 winger, but there will be a major log jam, can end up being a trade chip.
But you're totally right, so many questions left to be answered! I always agree with several of the things you say but sometimes also things I strongly disagree. Quite normal
Anyway, similar discussion as last time. You have an extremely conservative approach, nothing wrong with that. But I find that kind of approach a bit scary as you might end up watching the train pass. I certainly hope the Sens don't have that kind of approach and are proactive to adjust the team to be more competitive every year. Or actually, don't make anything, just incorporate the young talented guys to the lineup
For sure. If it's the latter, we're looking at 8 straight seasons without a playoff berth. That's unacceptable. I expect this season (whenever that occurs) to be a competitive, but relatively unsuccessful season in terms of standings. If it's more of the same in the following seasons, it's a bust.
Xspyrit
DJ Dorion
I don't really care what they do in regards to the standings for 2020-21 (well, 2021 sadly). All I want to see is young players keep progressing (and progress can bring winning)
I will cheer for every game to be a win in 2021-22. I would be very mad if they are still bottom-5 then.
Assuming we get some kind of 50 game season starting soon, by the 21-22 season I expect a playoff competitive team
Micklebot
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Mostly I agree, but I think it has more to do with roles than skill. Last year guys were all slotted too high imo, and that boosted their production.
The thing is, nobody would have seen Pageau, Duclair and Ennis equaling the offence they put up prior to them doing it. None of them, save Duclair, really has a compelling offensive skillset, but these are NHL players, so when you put them in the prime offensive roles, the points will come.
Galchenyuk got put in a scoring role early in his career with Mtl, and crushed it (offensively only), his last 3 seasons with Mtl averaged 24G and 55 pts, he certainly has the skill to match any of Pageau, Ennis, or Duclair's production.
I think the tough part is seeing how long it takes for these guys to take that top dog role, Batherson won't put up big numbers if Connor Brown and Dadonov ends up with the top mins, L.Brown/Norris won't put up big numbers if White or Tierney are getting all the prime mins, Galchenyuk/Stuetzle won't put up big points if Tkachuk and... ok well that 2nd line LW spot seems ripe for the taking, so there's that. DJ seems to like his vets, guys he can trust and who show consistent effort. Rookies won't be thrust into top roles the way Ennis, Pageau and Duclair essentially got them by default last year.
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