Predicted Canuck Point Totals

Discussion in 'Vancouver Canucks' started by Norade, Jul 22, 2019.

  1. Norade Registered User

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    I'll do the fancy write-up tomorrow, I picked up an extra shift at work tonight and just don't have the mental energy to write my usual blurb.

    Player​
    GP​
    G​
    A​
    P​
    Predicted​
    Pace​
    Change​
    E. Pettersson
    50
    21
    31
    52
    71 gp - 28 g - 66 p
    82 gp – 34 g – 85 p
    -1
    B. Boeser
    50
    16
    27
    43
    66 gp - 28 g - 56 p
    82 gp – 26 g – 72 p
    -6
    B. Horvat
    50
    17
    25
    43
    76 gp - 23 g - 52 p
    82 gp – 28 g – 72 p
    +3
    J.T. Miller
    50
    19
    29
    48
    80 gp - 19 g - 53 p
    82 gp – 31 g – 79 p
    +2
    T. Pearson
    50
    14
    23
    37
    81 gp - 19 g - 37 p
    82 gp – 23 g – 61 p
    +1
    M. Ferland
    14
    1
    4
    5
    75 gp - 18 g - 36 p
    23 gp – 2 g – 8 p
    -1
    L. Eriksson
    31
    5
    4
    9
    65 gp - 11 g - 26 p
    51 gp – 8 g – 15 p
    +4
    B. Sutter
    25
    5
    3
    8
    56 gp - 11 g - 22 p
    41 gp – 8 g – 13 p
    -2
    S. Baertschi
    6
    0
    2
    2
    49 gp - 14 g - 26 p
    10 gp – 0 g – 3 p
    -1
    A. Roussel
    22
    5
    3
    8
    66 gp - 9 g - 25 p
    36 gp – 8 g – 13 p
    +0​
    J. Beagle
    41
    1
    3
    4
    72 gp - 8 g - 22 p
    67 gp – 2 g – 7 p
    +1
    T. Schaller
    45
    4
    1
    5
    62 gp - 7 g - 15 p
    74 gp – 7 g – 8 p
    -1
    J. Leivo
    36
    7
    12
    19
    32 gp - 5 g - 12 p
    59 gp – 11 g – 31 p
    -4
    J. Virtanen
    50
    14
    16
    30
    52 gp - 8 g - 15 p
    82 gp – 23 g – 49 p
    +3
    T. Motte
    23
    3
    2
    5
    51 gp - 6 g - 10 p
    38 gp – 5 g – 8 p
    -1
    N. Goldobin
    1
    0
    0
    0
    30 gp - 5 g - 12 p
    2 gp - 0 g – 0 p
    -​
    A. Gaudette​
    40​
    8​
    13​
    21​
    No Prediction​
    66 gp – 13 g – 35 p​
    +0​
    T. Graovac​
    8​
    2​
    0​
    2​
    No Prediction​
    13 gp – 4 g – 3 p​
    -1
    Z. MacEwen​
    8​
    1​
    1​
    2​
    No Prediction​
    13 gp – 2 g – 3 p​
    -1
    19 Forwards
    -
    143
    -
    -
    219
    235
    -4
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    A. Edler
    40
    4
    17
    21
    65 gp - 7 g - 29 p
    66 gp – 7 g – 35 p
    -2
    T. Myers
    50
    4
    11
    15
    58 gp - 6 g - 24 p
    82 gp – 7 g – 25 p
    -2
    C. Tanev
    50
    2
    14
    16
    50 gp - 2 g - 11 p
    82 gp – 3 g- 26 p
    +2
    T. Stetcher
    50
    3
    6
    9
    72 gp - 2 g - 19 p
    82 gp – 5 g – 15 p
    +0​
    J. Benn
    38
    0
    6
    6
    76 gp - 4 g - 18 p
    62 gp – 0 g – 10 p
    -1
    O. Fantenberg
    22
    1
    1
    2
    29 gp - 1 g - 5 p
    36 gp – 2 g – 3 p
    -1
    Q. Hughes​
    49​
    5​
    29​
    34​
    No Prediction​
    80 gp – 8 g – 56 p​
    +0​
    A. Sautner​
    1​
    0​
    0​
    0​
    No Prediction​
    2 gp - 0 g – 0 p​
    +0​
    8 Defenders
    -
    19
    -
    -
    22
    31
    +0​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    27 Skaters
    -
    162
    -
    -
    241
    266
    -4
     
  2. Norade Registered User

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    Over the last 5 games, the Canucks are 4 - 1 - 0 picking up 8 out of 10 possible points. We're currently at the top of the Pacific 2 points above the Flames with a game in hand and 3 points above the Oilers though they have a game in hand on us. If we win tonight and the Oilers and Flames don't go to OT we can maintain one of those gaps and grow the other.

    In terms of team stats, our scoring (3.24 GF/GP) is still good for 10th in the league while our goals against (2.98 GA/GP) which have improved to 14th in the league. Our PP continues to slump, now down to 7th in the league, though we're still running at a 23.4% rate. Our PK is tied for 14th running at 81.0%. On the whole, our team stats show that we're a playoff team.

    Given that it's been a topic in our GDTs our shots for are 16th at 31.5 shots per game while our shots against are 25th at 32.5 per game.
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
  3. Norade Registered User

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    So, we went 2 - 2 - 1 this past 5, our first stretch being at 0.500 or below since late December. The Boston game was rough and losing Pettersson in Minnesota was even more of a gut punch but the trip is over and some home cooking should do this team well.

    Our goals for per game has fallen by 0.04 to 3.20 which is still good for 10th in the league and our goals against per game have also risen by 0.02 to 3.00 which is also still good for 14th in the league. Our PP continues to fall dropping to 8th with a success rate of 23.2% and our Pk also dipped to 80.9% which is ironically good for 13th in the league compared to last weeks ranking of 14th. Continuing from last week our shots for have dipped to 31.1 down to 18th and our shots against have risen to 32.9 dropping us to 27th in the league.

    Things look a little worse for us after these 5 games but we're not in freefall by any stretch.

    Player​
    GP​
    G​
    A​
    P​
    Predicted​
    Pace​
    Change​
    E. Pettersson
    54
    23
    32
    55
    71 gp - 28 g - 66 p
    80 gp – 34 g – 81 p
    -4
    B. Boeser
    55
    16
    29
    45
    66 gp - 28 g - 56 p
    82 gp – 24 g – 67 p
    -5
    B. Horvat
    55
    17
    27
    44
    76 gp - 23 g - 52 p
    82 gp – 25 g – 66 p
    -6
    J.T. Miller
    55
    21
    33
    54
    80 gp - 19 g - 53 p
    82 gp – 31 g – 81 p
    +2
    T. Pearson
    55
    15
    24
    39
    81 gp - 19 g - 37 p
    82 gp – 22 g – 58 p
    -3
    M. Ferland
    14
    1
    4
    5
    75 gp - 18 g - 36 p
    21 gp – 2 g – 8 p
    +0​
    L. Eriksson
    36
    5
    5
    10
    65 gp - 11 g - 26 p
    54 gp – 8 g – 15 p
    +0​
    B. Sutter
    30
    6
    5
    11
    56 gp - 11 g - 22 p
    45 gp – 9 g – 17 p
    +4
    S. Baertschi
    6
    0
    2
    2
    49 gp - 14 g - 26 p
    9 gp – 0 g – 3 p
    +0​
    A. Roussel
    27
    6
    3
    9
    66 gp - 9 g - 25 p
    40 gp – 9 g – 13 p
    +0​
    J. Beagle
    46
    1
    4
    5
    72 gp - 8 g - 22 p
    69 gp – 2 g – 8 p
    +1
    T. Schaller
    49
    5
    1
    6
    62 gp - 7 g - 15 p
    73 gp – 7 g – 9 p
    +1
    J. Leivo
    36
    7
    12
    19
    32 gp - 5 g - 12 p
    54 gp – 11 g – 29 p
    -2
    J. Virtanen
    55
    15
    16
    31
    52 gp - 8 g - 15 p
    82 gp – 22 g – 46 p
    -3
    T. Motte
    23
    3
    2
    5
    51 gp - 6 g - 10 p
    34 gp – 4 g – 7 p
    -1
    N. Goldobin
    1
    0
    0
    0
    30 gp - 5 g - 12 p
    1 gp - 0 g – 0 p
    -​
    A. Gaudette​
    45​
    8​
    13​
    23​
    No Prediction​
    67 gp – 12 g – 34 p​
    -1
    T. Graovac​
    8​
    2​
    0​
    2​
    No Prediction​
    12 gp – 3 g – 3 p​
    +0​
    Z. MacEwen​
    9​
    1​
    1​
    2​
    No Prediction​
    13 gp – 2 g – 3 p​
    +0​
    19 Forwards
    -
    152
    -
    -
    219
    227
    -8
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    A. Edler
    45
    4
    18
    22
    65 gp - 7 g - 29 p
    67 gp – 6 g – 33 p
    -2
    T. Myers
    55
    6
    12
    18
    58 gp - 6 g - 24 p
    82 gp – 9 g – 26 p
    +1
    C. Tanev
    55
    2
    17
    19
    50 gp - 2 g - 11 p
    82 gp – 3 g- 28 p
    +2
    T. Stetcher
    55
    3
    6
    9
    72 gp - 2 g - 19 p
    82 gp – 4 g – 13 p
    -2
    J. Benn
    38
    0
    6
    6
    76 gp - 4 g - 18 p
    57 gp – 0 g – 9 p
    -1
    O. Fantenberg
    27
    1
    3
    4
    29 gp - 1 g - 5 p
    40 gp – 1 g – 6 p
    +3
    Q. Hughes​
    54​
    8​
    32​
    40​
    No Prediction​
    80 gp – 12 g – 59 p​
    +3
    A. Sautner​
    1​
    0​
    0​
    0​
    No Prediction​
    1 gp - 0 g – 0 p​
    +0​
    8 Defenders
    -
    24
    -
    -
    22
    36
    +5
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    27 Skaters
    -
    176
    -
    -
    241
    263
    -3

    As a point of interest, our defence scored all of 27 goals last season; at the 55 game mark this season we've scored 24 from the backend. In fact, our entire team is within 43 goals of last seasons total meaning we could score an anaemic 1.60 goals per game from here on out and still beat that mark by a goal. On the other side of the puck, we're on pace to give up 246 goals this season compared to 248 the past season.

    It's safe to say that our issue last season was scoring as we were close to league average for goals against last season and on pace for another season of the same. Those saying that our defence is awful may way to look at the numbers that actually matter (goals against) and see if their take on our defence matches reality.
     
  4. Norade Registered User

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    We went 2 - 2 - 1 over this past five-game stretch. We also lost Boeser for the rest of the regular season, fired Schaller into the Los Angeles sunshine, and acquired Toffoli. So a very mixed bag of news to go with a 0.500 win rate.

    As of the end of their 60th game, the Canucks have picked up 70 of 120 possible points. They've scored 3.18 goals per game and 3.02 goals against per game aided by a 23.5% PP and an 80.4% PK. As has been the case all season we're giving more shots per game than we're taking with those stats now at 33.1 against to 31.0 for.

    I'm going to switch up the format starting next week. Look forward to deeper dives into each game of the set as well as a focus on the players doing well as well as those who are struggling!

    Player​
    GP​
    G​
    A​
    P​
    Predicted​
    Pace​
    Change​
    E. Pettersson
    59
    24
    34
    58
    71 gp - 28 g - 66 p
    81 gp – 33 g – 80 p
    -1
    B. Boeser*
    55
    16
    29
    45
    66 gp - 28 g - 56 p
    55 gp – 16 g – 45 p
    -22
    B. Horvat
    60
    18
    28
    46
    76 gp - 23 g - 52 p
    82 gp – 25 g – 63 p
    -3
    J.T. Miller
    60
    24
    35
    59
    80 gp - 19 g - 53 p
    82 gp – 33 g – 81 p
    +0
    T. Pearson
    60
    17
    24
    41
    81 gp - 19 g - 37 p
    82 gp – 23 g – 56 p
    -2
    M. Ferland*
    14
    1
    4
    5
    75 gp - 18 g - 36 p
    14 gp – 1 g – 5 p
    -3
    L. Eriksson
    41
    5
    5
    10
    65 gp - 11 g - 26 p
    56 gp – 7 g – 14 p
    -1
    B. Sutter​
    35​
    8​
    8​
    16​
    56 gp - 11 g - 22 p​
    48 gp – 11 g – 22 p​
    +5
    S. Baertschi
    6
    0
    2
    2
    49 gp - 14 g - 26 p
    8 gp – 0 g – 3 p
    -
    A. Roussel
    32
    6
    5
    11
    66 gp - 9 g - 25 p
    44 gp – 8 g – 15 p
    +2
    J. Beagle
    51
    2
    4
    6
    72 gp - 8 g - 22 p
    70 gp – 3 g – 8 p
    +0​
    T. Schaller*
    51
    5
    1
    6
    62 gp - 7 g - 15 p
    51 gp – 5 g – 6 p
    -3
    J. Leivo
    36
    7
    12
    19
    32 gp - 5 g - 12 p
    49 gp – 10 g – 26 p
    -3
    J. Virtanen
    60
    16
    16
    32
    52 gp - 8 g - 15 p
    82 gp – 22 g – 44 p
    -2
    T. Motte
    25
    3
    3
    6
    51 gp - 6 g - 10 p
    34 gp – 4 g – 8 p
    +1
    N. Goldobin
    1
    0
    0
    0
    30 gp - 5 g - 12 p
    1 gp - 0 g – 0 p
    -
    A. Gaudette​
    50​
    10​
    17​
    27​
    No Prediction​
    68 gp – 14 g – 37 p​
    +3
    T. Graovac​
    8​
    2​
    0​
    2​
    No Prediction​
    11 gp – 3 g – 3 p​
    -​
    Z. MacEwen​
    12​
    2​
    1​
    3​
    No Prediction​
    16 gp – 3 g – 4 p​
    +1
    J. Bailey​
    2​
    0​
    0​
    0​
    No Prediction​
    3 gp – 0 g – 0 p​
    +0​
    T. Toffoli​
    1​
    0​
    1​
    1​
    No Prediction​
    1 gp – 0 g – 1 p​
    -​
    21 Forwards
    -
    166
    -
    -
    219
    221
    -6
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    A. Edler
    50
    4
    20
    24
    65 gp - 7 g - 29 p
    68 gp – 5 g – 33 p
    +0
    T. Myers
    60
    6
    12
    18
    58 gp - 6 g - 24 p
    82 gp – 8 g – 25 p
    -1
    C. Tanev
    60
    2
    17
    19
    50 gp - 2 g - 11 p
    82 gp – 3 g- 26 p
    -2
    T. Stetcher
    60
    3
    8
    11
    72 gp - 2 g - 19 p
    82 gp – 4 g – 15 p
    +2
    J. Benn
    43
    1
    6
    7
    76 gp - 4 g - 18 p
    59 gp – 1 g – 9 p
    +0​
    O. Fantenberg​
    27​
    1​
    3​
    4​
    29 gp - 1 g - 5 p​
    37 gp – 1 g – 5 p​
    -1
    Q. Hughes​
    59​
    8​
    39​
    47​
    No Prediction​
    81 gp – 11 g – 65 p​
    +6
    A. Sautner​
    1​
    0​
    0​
    0​
    No Prediction​
    1 gp - 0 g – 0 p​
    +0​
    8 Defenders
    -
    25
    -
    -
    22
    34
    -2
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    ---​
    29 Skaters
    -
    191
    -
    -
    241
    255
    -8
    A couple of quick notes just on the player stats. Anybody who's off the team for the season either via trade or injury has been marked with a star. Players who have been traded or who I predicted to have NHL time but who have spent the season in the AHL, aka Baertschi and Goldobin, will be marked in blue to avoid marking them in misleading red each update.

    Players who are done for the season have also had their pace adjusted to their current stat line which is why you see a -22 point change for Boeser this update.

    The team report portion is going to come tomorrow afternoon.
     
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2020
  5. Norade Registered User

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    I've updated my post for this stretch so check it out for the usual experience and stay tuned next week for when I try to really take these posts to the next level.
     

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