Predicted Canuck Point Totals

[Tables of Stats]

As a fun thought experiment, I took the averages for all current Cancuks forwards and defensemen as they are listed on CapFriendly. For players with 3 full seasons of NHL play (that this excludes Boeser and Hughes short stints at the end of a season), I averaged those seasons to get games played, goals, assists, and points. For players with less than 3 full seasons played I used what was available.

I found the results interesting so I thought I'd share them with the warning that, this method can't account for growth, decline, or differing levels of health compared to the averages. It also couldn't provide any data for a player like Hughes so take the results with a grain of salt.

Name	GP	G	A	P
Elias Pettersson	71	28	38	66
Brock Boeser	66	28	28	56
Bo Horvat	76	23	29	52
JT Miller	80	19	34	53
Tanner Pearson	81	19	18	37
Micheal Ferland	75	18	18	36
Loui Eriksson	65	11	15	26
Brandon Sutter	56	11	11	22
Sven Baertschi	49	14	12	26
Antoine Roussel	66	9	16	25
Jay Beagle	72	8	14	22
Tim Schaller	62	7	8	15
Josh Leivo	32	5	7	12
Jake Virtanen	52	8	7	15
Tyler Motte	51	6	4	10
Nikolai Goldobin*	30	5	7	12
Alex Edler	65	7	22	29
Tyler Myers	58	6	18	24
Chris Tanev	50	2	9	11
Troy Stetcher	72	2	17	19
Jordie Benn	76	4	14	18
Oscar Fantenberg	29	1	4	5
Alex Biega	40	1	8	9
Quinn Hughes**	65	?	?	?
Call-Ups***	27	?	?	?

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*Goldobin was scheduled to play 37 games, but there were only 30 games left so I cut his games down and adjusted his goals and points accordingly.

**As mentioned I could generate data for Hughes so I left this blank. Assuming he's ready and places within the top 20 for rookie defensemen we still shouldn't assume more than 5 goals from Hughes this coming season. A 5g - 15 a- 20p season would have put him solidly 4th for rookie defenseman last season so I don't want to hope for more than that.

***We used a lot more random D-men than forwards last season so instead os using a single player I just used a catch-all. I didn't fill in the points of goals but if we managed 1 goal and like 6 assists I'd be happy.

The total for goals scored came out to 242 which would have placed us tied for 17th in that category instead of tied for 25th. It represents a 10.5% increase in goal scoring which nets 23 more goals. Assuming we get comparable defense compared to last season, and with Gudbranson gone I don't see how we could be that much worse, that probably means we win another half-dozen or so games.

Assuming we outright win an extra six games and convert another two OTLs into OTWs we'd have made the playoffs last season as the 3rd seed in the Pacific and played San Jose. We'd have been a bubble team, but I don't think anybody expects more than that from the current group without serious improvement from some younger players.

These numbers suggest that we should be a bubble team this coming season even with our usual level of injury 'luck' and even if none of our young players improve over last season. Unless you assume slumps or major injuries to our key young players and regression from our vets I think it's safe to assume we'll be a bubble team.

Click to read more...

 

[Tables of Stats]

I figure that this thread is worth updating as the year goes by. Every 5 games I'll track our player's current point totals and the pace that's set and see how it compares to my prediction.

Player​	GP​	G​	A​	P​	Predicted​	Pace​	Change​
E. Pettersson​	5​	2​	3​	5​	71 gp - 28 g - 66 p ​	82 gp – 33 g – 82 p​	-​
B. Boeser​	5​	1​	5​	6​	66 gp - 28 g - 56 p ​	82 gp – 16 g – 98 p​	-​
B. Horvat​	5​	0​	1​	1​	76 gp - 23 g - 52 p​	82 gp – 0 g – 16 p​	-​
J.T. Miller​	5​	3​	4​	7​	80 gp - 19 g - 53 p ​	82 gp – 49 g – 115 p​	-​
T. Pearson​	5​	2​	2​	4​	81 gp - 19 g - 37 p ​	82 gp – 33 g – 66 p​	-​
M. Ferland​	5​	0​	1​	1​	75 gp - 18 g - 36 p​	82 gp – 0 g – 16 p​	-​
L. Eriksson​	1​	0​	0​	0​	65 gp - 11 g - 26 p​	16 gp – 0 g – 0 p​	-​
B. Sutter​	5​	2​	2​	4​	56 gp - 11 g - 22 p ​	82 gp – 33 g – 66 p​	-​
S. Baertschi​	-​	-​	-​	-​	49 gp - 14 g - 26 p​	-​	-​
A. Roussel​	-​	-​	-​	-​	66 gp - 9 g - 25 p​	-​	-​
J. Beagle​	5​	0​	0​	0​	72 gp - 8 g - 22 p​	82 gp – 0 g – 0 p​	-​
T. Schaller​	5​	0​	0​	0​	62 gp - 7 g - 15 p​	82 gp – 0 g – 0 p​	-​
J. Leivo​	5​	1​	1​	2​	32 gp - 5 g - 12 p ​	82 gp – 16 g – 33 p​	-​
J. Virtanen​	5​	0​	2​	2​	52 gp - 8 g - 15 p ​	82 gp – 0 g – 33 p​	-​
T. Motte​	1​	0​	0​	0​	51 gp - 6 g - 10 p​	16 gp – 0 g – 0 p​	-​
N. Goldobin​	-​	-​	-​	-​	30 gp - 5 g - 12 p​	-​	-​
A. Gaudette​	3​	0​	1​	1​	No Prediction​	49 gp – 0 g – 16 p​	-​
A. Edler​	5​	3​	2​	5​	65 gp - 7 g - 29 p​	82 gp – 49 g – 82 p​	-​
T. Myers​	5​	0​	2​	2​	58 gp - 6 g - 24 p​	82 gp – 0 g – 33 p​	-​
C. Tanev​	5​	1​	2​	3​	50 gp - 2 g - 11 p​	82 gp – 16 g- 49 p​	-​
T. Stetcher​	5​	1​	1​	2​	72 gp - 2 g - 19 p​	82 gp – 16 g – 33 p​	-​
J. Benn​	5​	0​	0​	0​	76 gp - 4 g - 18 p​	82 gp – 0 g – 0 p​	-​
O. Fantenberg​	-​	-​	-​	-​	29 gp - 1 g - 5 p​	-​	-​
Q. Hughes​	5​	1​	2​	3​	No Prediction​	82 gp – 16 g – 49 p​	-​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I didn't see Biega being traded for a non-return and didn't predict Gaudette making the team to start the season, so obviously my preseason predictions will be wrong in some respects. I also didn't have any real data for what Hughes would score but pessimistically was hoping he'd be in the 20 to 25 point range.

Blue shows players ahead of my predicted pace for points red shows those below that pace. If a player ends up on pace to hit my prediction that will be in black.

This isn't for anything serious, just a fun way to track players totals this season and laugh at my own predictions when they go off the rails. If future updates I might also track if a player is hotter or colder offensively than they were in the previous week so we'll have an easy to check record of hot and cold streaks.

 

[Diversification]

Thanks for this. It's a nice way to track whether we're exceeding expectations, and is something of a proxy for likelihood of making the playoffs. I'll be sure to check in on this over the course of the season!

 

[Tables of Stats]

The Canucks went 3 - 2 - 0 in their first 5 games of the season and have continued that run of good play going 3 - 1 - 1 in their last 5 games. This has them in a Wild Card spot with enough games in hand to put them in second in the division.

The team's defense, with the exception of Hughes, has cooled off since that first five-game tear they were on. This hasn't cooled off the top line who are still all scoring at career rates through 10-games played. Horvat has also come around even as Pearson has cooled off. The bottom six is chipping in but as predicted they aren't a reliable source of offense.

Goaltending, not tracked here, is still a strength for the team. The PP is midling sitting at 15th in the league at 20.9%. The PK is excellent sitting at 3rd in the league with an 88.9% success rate.

In our last point of order, I'll be highlighting players above their predicted pace in green instead of blue. Those below expectations will remain marked in red. Players who have yet to play will stay in black, as will players or whom I didn't make a prediction, for ease of reading.

Player	GP	G	A	P	Predicted	Pace	Change
E. Pettersson	10	3	8	11	71 gp - 28 g - 66 p	82 gp – 25 g – 90 p	+8
B. Boeser	10	3	6	9	66 gp - 28 g - 56 p	82 gp – 25 g – 74 p	-22
B. Horvat	10	5	3	8	76 gp - 23 g - 52 p	82 gp – 41 g – 66 p	+50
J.T. Miller	10	4	7	11	80 gp - 19 g - 53 p	82 gp – 33 g – 90 p	-25
T. Pearson	10	2	2	4	81 gp - 19 g - 37 p	82 gp – 16 g – 33 p	-33
M. Ferland	10	1	2	3	75 gp - 18 g - 36 p	82 gp – 8 g – 24 p	+9
L. Eriksson	1	0	0	0	65 gp - 11 g - 26 p	16 gp – 0 g – 0 p	+0
B. Sutter	10	2	3	5	56 gp - 11 g - 22 p	82 gp – 16 g – 41 p	-25
S. Baertschi	-	-	-	-	49 gp - 14 g - 26 p	-	-
A. Roussel	-	-	-	-	66 gp - 9 g - 25 p	-	-
J. Beagle	10	1	1	2	72 gp - 8 g - 22 p	82 gp – 8 g – 16 p	+16
T. Schaller	10	3	0	3	62 gp - 7 g - 15 p	82 gp – 25 g – 25 p	+25
J. Leivo	10	1	3	4	32 gp - 5 g - 12 p	82 gp – 18 g – 33 p	+0
J. Virtanen	10	2	2	4	52 gp - 8 g - 15 p	82 gp – 16 g – 33 p	+0
T. Motte	6	0	1	1	51 gp - 6 g - 10 p	49 gp – 0 g – 8 p	+8
N. Goldobin	-	-	-	-	30 gp - 5 g - 12 p	-	-
A. Gaudette	3	0	1	1	No Prediction	25 gp – 0 g – 8 p	-8
A. Edler	10	3	3	5	65 gp - 7 g - 29 p	82 gp – 25 g – 49 p	-33
T. Myers	10	0	3	3	58 gp - 6 g - 24 p	82 gp – 0 g – 25 p	-8
C. Tanev	10	1	3	4	50 gp - 2 g - 11 p	82 gp – 8 g- 33 p	-16
T. Stetcher	10	1	1	2	72 gp - 2 g - 19 p	82 gp – 8 g – 16 p	-17
J. Benn	10	0	2	2	76 gp - 4 g - 18 p	82 gp – 0 g – 16 p	+16
O. Fantenberg	-	-	-	-	29 gp - 1 g - 5 p	-	-
Q. Hughes	10	1	6	7	No Prediction	82 gp – 8 g – 57 p	+8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Thanks for reading this and if you want me to keep it up all season drop a like or a comment to keep my spirits up. If you'd like to chime in with how players are doing in relation to your own predictions also feel free to share.

 

[RandV]

In the future, I'll use an outside program to make a table and simply include an image as well as the raw file. For this entry, all players remain in the same order as last week. Please forgive me for not wanting to retype this entire table as the board's software is terrible at allowing for easy changes in addition to randomly eating results.

You're not using a spreadsheet? I use excel and copying and pasting directly into here keeps the table formatting.

 

[Tables of Stats]

You're not using a spreadsheet? I use excel and copying and pasting directly into here keeps the table formatting.

I could, and will do so in the future. The reason why I haven't is that it's like 10 minutes to manually type in a new table and most of the data needs to change each post anyway.

Formating a table on this site also hasn't been an issue in the past and the tables in these posts have looked fine until I hit post and suddenly sections of them are missing. I'm not sure what's been happening but as it's just as easy to make a table anywhere else and copy it over I'll be doing that going forward.

 

[Tables of Stats]

The tables are fixed and shouldn't have any issues moving forward.

 

[Tables of Stats]

The Canucks are still rolling having gone 3 - 0 - 2 in their last 5 games for a record of 9 - 3 - 3 putting them 3rd in the west with 21 points and on a 115 point pace.

The top line and Horvat are still rolling along giving us 4 players on a 70 point or better pace. Our secondary scoring has been, interesting, with Leivo and Sutter both currently on 44 point paces with Virtanen on pace for 22 goals and 38 points. Even Pearson, mired in a scoring slump, is still on pace for 33 points. Our defense, led by Hughes and Edler, is still producing points. If either of Hughes or Edler slows down from their 61 and 55 point paces our defense will start looking a lot less dynamic as the rest of our defense is on pace for 22 points or less.

As a whole, the Canucks are scoring at a 3.47 GF/GP paced which is good for 6th in the league. On the other side of the puck, we're only giving up 2.33 GA/GP which has us tied for 3rd in the league. The PP has improved slightly rising from a 20.9% success rate over the team's first 10 games to 21.9% after game 15 which is good for 11th in the league. The PK still hasn't cooled off sitting at 88.7% which is good for 3rd in the league.

As a whole, you can't ask for a team to have done more through 15 games.

Player	GP	G	A	P	Predicted	Pace	Change
E. Pettersson	15	6	14	20	71 gp - 28 g - 66 p	82 gp – 33 g – 109 p	+19
B. Boeser	15	7	9	16	66 gp - 28 g - 56 p	82 gp – 38 g – 87 p	+13
B. Horvat	15	6	7	13	76 gp - 23 g - 52 p	82 gp – 33 g – 71 p	+5
J.T. Miller	15	6	10	16	80 gp - 19 g - 53 p	82 gp – 33 g – 87 p	-3
T. Pearson	15	2	4	6	81 gp - 19 g - 37 p	82 gp – 11 g – 33 p	+0
M. Ferland	12	1	4	5	75 gp - 18 g - 36 p	66 gp – 6 g – 28 p	+4
L. Eriksson	6	0	0	0	65 gp - 11 g - 26 p	33 gp – 0 g – 0 p	+0
B. Sutter	15	5	3	8	56 gp - 11 g - 22 p	82 gp – 27 g – 44 p	+3
S. Baertschi	-	-	-	-	49 gp - 14 g - 26 p	-	-
A. Roussel	-	-	-	-	66 gp - 9 g - 25 p	-	-
J. Beagle	15	1	2	3	72 gp - 8 g - 22 p	82 gp – 5 g – 16 p	+0
T. Schaller	15	4	0	4	62 gp - 7 g - 15 p	82 gp – 22 g – 22 p	-3
J. Leivo	15	2	6	8	32 gp - 5 g - 12 p	82 gp – 11 g – 44 p	+11
J. Virtanen	15	4	3	7	52 gp - 8 g - 15 p	82 gp – 22 g – 38 p	+5
T. Motte	6	0	1	1	51 gp - 6 g - 10 p	33 gp – 0 g – 6 p	-2
N. Goldobin	-	-	-	-	30 gp - 5 g - 12 p	-	-
A. Gaudette	6	1	2	3	No Prediction	25 gp – 6 g – 17 p	+9
---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
A. Edler	15	3	7	10	65 gp - 7 g - 29 p	82 gp – 16 g – 55 p	+6
T. Myers	15	0	4	4	58 gp - 6 g - 24 p	82 gp – 0 g – 22 p	-3
C. Tanev	15	1	3	4	50 gp - 2 g - 11 p	82 gp – 5 g- 22 p	-11
T. Stetcher	15	1	2	3	72 gp - 2 g - 19 p	82 gp – 5 g – 16 p	+0
J. Benn	15	0	2	2	76 gp - 4 g - 18 p	82 gp – 0 g – 11 p	-5
O. Fantenberg	-	-	-	-	29 gp - 1 g - 5 p	-	-
Q. Hughes	14	2	9	11	No Prediction	77 gp – 11 g – 61 p	+4
A. Sautner	1	0	0	0	No Prediction	5 g; - 0 g – 0 p	-

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

TL;DR: This was another great five-game stretch in terms of results, team stats, and individual stats. We'll see what the harder schedule in November brings.

 

[4Twenty]

20 games in....interested to see the update @Norade

 

[Tables of Stats]

It's been a busy week for me but I should have them up before puck drop tonight.

 

[Tables of Stats]

This was the first bad stretch of results the Canucks have had all season seeing them go 1 - 4 - 0 while being outscored 18 to 11 over that span. As a result, you'll see a lot of red in the change column in spite of the fact that many players are beating what I had predicted for them this season.

Given that we're at the quarter mark of the season I'm going to dive a little deeper into the stats this time around to give people a better idea of how each player is doing and what our current pace is like compared to what we managed last season.

To start with the team is currently on pace to score 264 goals this season, that's up by 45 goals over the 219 goals we scored last season. On the flip-side, we're on pace to allow a miserly 217 goals this season that's down by 31 compared to the 248 we allowed last season. To put those to a per-game pace we're scoring 0.48 goals-per-game while allowing 0.37 fewer goals against. Even with a reasonable level of regression we're simply not going to perform as poorly in those categories this year as we did last year.

Special teams are also still doing well. Our PP is still running at ~24% - up 7% from last season - and our PK is running at ~83% - up 2.7% from last season. A team is said to be doing well if those scores add to 100% and we're beating mark by a reasonable margin thus far.

Given all of the above, it should be obvious our goaltending has remained solid even through our recent losses.

Going more in-depth on the individual stats we can look and see 12 players marked in green with regards to their scoring pace versus my prediction; this rises to 14 is we include Gaudette and Hughes for which I didn't make a prediction. For those in red, Motte is only 2 points off his pace if we look at P/GP instead of totals. If we exclude the games played by Graovac and Sautner, we have 14 players above my predicted pace, 1 nearly at their predicted pace, and 6 below their pace. This amounts to us being up 23 goals from the 241 I predicted this team would score and suggests that in spite of some scoring issues from the 4th line we're doing as well or better than our record suggests.

Player​	GP​	G​	A​	P​	Predicted​	Pace​	Change​
E. Pettersson​	20​	8​	16​	24​	71 gp - 28 g - 66 p ​	82 gp – 33 g – 98 p​	-11​
B. Boeser​	20​	8​	11​	19​	66 gp - 28 g - 56 p ​	82 gp – 33 g – 78 p​	-9​
B. Horvat​	20​	6​	9​	15​	76 gp - 23 g - 52 p ​	82 gp – 25 g – 62 p​	-9​
J.T. Miller​	20​	8​	11​	19​	80 gp - 19 g - 53 p ​	82 gp – 33 g – 78 p​	-9​
T. Pearson​	20​	4​	6​	10​	81 gp - 19 g - 37 p ​	82 gp – 16 g – 41 p​	+8​
M. Ferland​	12​	1​	4​	5​	75 gp - 18 g - 36 p ​	49 gp – 4 g – 20 p​	-8​
L. Eriksson​	10​	0​	0​	0​	65 gp - 11 g - 26 p​	33 gp – 0 g – 0 p​	+0​
B. Sutter​	19​	5​	3​	8​	56 gp - 11 g - 22 p ​	78 gp – 21 g – 33 p​	-11​
S. Baertschi​	4​	0​	1​	1​	49 gp - 14 g - 26 p ​	16 gp – 0 g – 4 p​	-​
A. Roussel​	-​	-​	-​	-​	66 gp - 9 g - 25 p​	-​	-​
J. Beagle​	18​	1​	2​	3​	72 gp - 8 g - 22 p ​	74 gp – 4 g – 12 p​	-4​
T. Schaller​	20​	4​	0​	4​	62 gp - 7 g - 15 p ​	82 gp – 22 g – 22 p​	-3​
J. Leivo​	20​	2​	7​	9​	32 gp - 5 g - 12 p ​	82 gp – 8 g – 37 p​	-7​
J. Virtanen​	20​	6​	3​	9​	52 gp - 8 g - 15 p ​	82 gp – 25 g – 37 p​	-1​
T. Motte​	6​	0​	1​	1​	51 gp - 6 g - 10 p ​	25 gp – 0 g – 4 p​	-2​
N. Goldobin​	-​	-​	-​	-​	30 gp - 5 g - 12 p​	-​	-​
A. Gaudette​	10​	2​	4​	6​	No Prediction​	41 gp – 8 g – 25 p​	+8​
T. Graovac​	1​	0​	0​	0​	No Prediction​	4 gp – 0 g – 0 p​	+0​
---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​
A. Edler​	20​	3​	9​	12​	65 gp - 7 g - 29 p ​	82 gp – 12 g – 49 p​	-6​
T. Myers​	20​	0​	4​	4​	58 gp - 6 g - 24 p ​	82 gp – 0 g – 16 p​	-6​
C. Tanev​	20​	1​	3​	4​	50 gp - 2 g - 11 p ​	82 gp – 4 g- 16 p​	-6​
T. Stetcher​	20​	2​	3​	5​	72 gp - 2 g - 19 p ​	82 gp – 8 g – 21 p​	+5​
J. Benn​	20​	0​	3​	3​	76 gp - 4 g - 18 p ​	82 gp – 0 g – 12 p​	+1​
O. Fantenberg​	-​	-​	-​	-​	29 gp - 1 g - 5 p​	-​	-​
Q. Hughes​	19​	2​	10​	12​	No Prediction​	78 gp – 8 g – 49 p​	-12​
A. Sautner​	1​	0​	0​	0​	No Prediction​	4 gp - 0 g – 0 p​	+0​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

TLDR; we're still doing better than predicted even after a slump.

 

[4Twenty]

Thanks.

do you have any predictions for the next 1/4?

any concerns?

 

[Tables of Stats]

Thanks.

do you have any predictions for the next 1/4?

any concerns?

My predictions were literally just the average of each player's past 3 seasons for points and games played. For players with less than 3 seasons played I averaged the seasons they have played thus far. It's a rather simplistic method of trying to guess what this team might accomplish this season and isn't something I can update as the year goes by.

Stats are an interest of mine but unlike some around here, I don't have the schooling to really dive into the stats any deeper than I've already done.

As for concerns moving forward, this six-game stretch of losses is concerning as are injuries to any of our top players. Beyond that, our home record isn't great thus far and I'd like to see that change. That all said, this isn't much of a predictive thread.

My goal with this thread is to create a way to look back at our season and look at where players slumped, how much injuries and scheduling impacted our wins and losses, and just make looking back at our team after 82 games a little easier.

 

[Tables of Stats]

Player​	GP​	G​	A​	P​	Predicted​	Pace​	Change​
E. Pettersson​	25​	10​	19​	29​	71 gp - 28 g - 66 p​	82 gp – 33 g – 95 p​	-3​
B. Boeser​	25​	10​	13​	23​	66 gp - 28 g - 56 p​	82 gp – 33 g – 75 p​	-3​
B. Horvat​	25​	8​	11​	19​	76 gp - 23 g - 52 p​	82 gp – 26 g – 62 p​	+0​
J.T. Miller​	25​	10​	14​	24​	80 gp - 19 g - 53 p​	82 gp – 33 g – 79 p​	+1​
T. Pearson​	25​	5​	7​	12​	81 gp - 19 g - 37 p​	82 gp – 16 g – 39 p​	-2​
M. Ferland​	12​	1​	4​	5​	75 gp - 18 g - 36 p​	39 gp – 3 g – 16 p​	-4​
L. Eriksson​	14​	0​	0​	0​	65 gp - 11 g - 26 p​	46 gp – 0 g – 0 p​	+0​
B. Sutter​	19​	5​	3​	8​	56 gp - 11 g - 22 p​	62 gp – 16 g – 26 p​	-7​
S. Baertschi​	6​	0​	2​	2​	49 gp - 14 g - 26 p​	20 gp – 0 g – 7 p​	+3​
A. Roussel​	-​	-​	-​	-​	66 gp - 9 g - 25 p​	-​	-​
J. Beagle​	20​	1​	2​	3​	72 gp - 8 g - 22 p​	66 gp – 3 g – 10 p​	-2​
T. Schaller​	25​	4​	0​	4​	62 gp - 7 g - 15 p​	82 gp – 13 g – 13 p​	-9​
J. Leivo​	25​	2​	9​	11​	32 gp - 5 g - 12 p​	82 gp – 7 g – 36 p​	-1​
J. Virtanen​	25​	6​	3​	9​	52 gp - 8 g - 15 p​	82 gp – 20 g – 30 p​	-7​
T. Motte​	6​	0​	1​	1​	51 gp - 6 g - 10 p​	20 gp – 0 g – 3 p​	-1​
N. Goldobin​	-​	-​	-​	-​	30 gp - 5 g - 12 p​	-​	-​
A. Gaudette​	15​	4​	4​	8​	No Prediction​	49 gp – 13 g – 26 p​	+1​
T. Graovac​	5​	1​	0​	1​	No Prediction​	16 gp – 3 g – 3 p​	+3​
Z. MacEwen​	3​	0​	0​	0​	No Prediction​	10 gp – 0 g – 0 p​	-​
---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​
A. Edler​	25​	4​	11​	15​	65 gp - 7 g - 29 p​	82 gp – 13 g – 49 p​	+0​
T. Myers​	25​	0​	4​	4​	58 gp - 6 g - 24 p​	82 gp – 0 g – 13 p​	-3​
C. Tanev​	25​	1​	3​	4​	50 gp - 2 g - 11 p​	82 gp – 3 g- 13 p​	-3​
T. Stetcher​	25​	2​	3​	5​	72 gp - 2 g - 19 p​	82 gp – 7 g – 16 p​	-5​
J. Benn​	25​	0​	3​	3​	76 gp - 4 g - 18 p​	82 gp – 0 g – 10 p​	-2​
O. Fantenberg​	-​	-​	-​	-​	29 gp - 1 g - 5 p​	-​	-​
Q. Hughes​	24​	2​	16​	18​	No Prediction​	79 gp – 8 g – 59 p​	+10​
A. Sautner​	1​	0​	0​	0​	No Prediction​	4 gp - 0 g – 0 p​	+0​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I'm tired tonight but I wanted to get this up. I'll add a write-up and color code this table sometime in the next day or so.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I missed the last 5 game stretch for everything except player stats, so let's make up for that and get right into the last 10 games I haven't covered.

Our record over the last 10 games was 5 - 4 - 1, with 2 of those wins coming in OT or the Shootout. Over that span, we scored 38 goals while allowing 37. This is obviously not good but given the injuries and the road trip, it's better than it could have been. We're currently in the last wildcard spot in the West and on pace for a 93 point season.

Our current GF/GP is 3.33 and our current GA/GP is 3.00. Those translate to 100 goals scored and 90 goals against. Our goals for per game is good enough for 8th in the league while our goals against per game is enough to have us middle of the pack at 17th.

Our Power Play is still our team's best feature going from 24% at game 20 to 27.2% now; which is a stellar rate and good for the 4th best PP in the league. Our PK has taken a slight step back going from 83% to 81.4%, over the same span, which is still good for 15th in the league.

Goaltending has cooled off some and our 5-on-5 scoring is worrying.

Just as a reminder, these stats are more for making looking back at this season easier. They're more a series of snapshots of the team than anything predictive

Player​	GP​	G​	A​	P​	Predicted​	Pace​	Change​
E. Pettersson​	30​	12​	21​	33​	71 gp - 28 g - 66 p ​	82 gp – 33 g – 90 p​	-5​
B. Boeser​	30​	11​	17​	28​	66 gp - 28 g - 56 p ​	82 gp – 30 g – 77 p​	+2​
B. Horvat​	30​	8​	16​	24​	76 gp - 23 g - 52 p ​	82 gp – 22 g – 66 p​	+4​
J.T. Miller​	30​	13​	18​	31​	80 gp - 19 g - 53 p ​	82 gp – 36 g – 85 p​	+6​
T. Pearson​	30​	8​	11​	19​	81 gp - 19 g - 37 p ​	82 gp – 22 g – 52 p​	+13​
M. Ferland​	13​	1​	4​	5​	75 gp - 18 g - 36 p ​	36 gp – 3 g – 14 p​	-2​
L. Eriksson​	17​	1​	0​	1​	65 gp - 11 g - 26 p​	46 gp – 3 g – 3 p​	+3​
B. Sutter​	19​	5​	3​	8​	56 gp - 11 g - 22 p​	52 gp – 14 g – 22 p​	-4​
S. Baertschi​	6​	0​	2​	2​	49 gp - 14 g - 26 p ​	16 gp – 0 g – 5 p​	-2​
A. Roussel​	2​	3​	0​	3​	66 gp - 9 g - 25 p ​	5 gp – 8 g – 8 p​	+8​
J. Beagle​	21​	1​	2​	3​	72 gp - 8 g - 22 p ​	57 gp – 3 g – 8 p​	-2​
T. Schaller​	30​	4​	0​	4​	62 gp - 7 g - 15 p ​	82 gp – 11 g – 11 p​	-2​
J. Leivo​	30​	6​	10​	16​	32 gp - 5 g - 12 p ​	82 gp – 16 g – 44 p​	+8​
J. Virtanen​	30​	7​	8​	15​	52 gp - 8 g - 15 p ​	82 gp – 19 g – 41 p​	+11​
T. Motte​	6​	0​	1​	1​	51 gp - 6 g - 10 p ​	20 gp – 0 g – 3 p​	-1​
N. Goldobin​	1​	0​	0​	0​	30 gp - 5 g - 12 p ​	3 gp - 0 g – 0 p​	-​
A. Gaudette​	20​	6​	7​	13​	No Prediction​	55 gp – 17 g – 36 p​	+10​
T. Graovac​	8​	2​	0​	2​	No Prediction​	22 gp – 6 g – 6 p​	+3​
Z. MacEwen​	7​	1​	1​	2​	No Prediction​	19 gp – 3 g – 5 p​	+5​
19 Forwards​	-​	89​	-​	-​	219​	243*​	-​
---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​
A. Edler​	27​	4​	11​	15​	65 gp - 7 g - 29 p ​	74 gp – 11 g – 41 p​	-8​
T. Myers​	25​	1​	5​	6​	58 gp - 6 g - 24 p ​	82 gp – 3 g – 16 p​	+3​
C. Tanev​	30​	1​	6​	7​	50 gp - 2 g - 11 p ​	82 gp – 3 g- 19 p​	+3​
T. Stetcher​	30​	2​	5​	7​	72 gp - 2 g - 19 p​	82 gp – 5 g – 19 p​	+3​
J. Benn​	30​	0​	6​	6​	76 gp - 4 g - 18 p ​	82 gp – 0 g – 16 p​	+6​
O. Fantenberg​	3​	1​	0​	1​	29 gp - 1 g - 5 p ​	8 gp – 3 g – 3 p​	+3​
Q. Hughes​	29​	2​	22​	24​	No Prediction​	79 gp – 5 g – 65 p​	+6​
A. Sautner​	1​	0​	0​	0​	No Prediction​	3 gp - 0 g – 0 p​	+0​
8 Defenders​	-​	11​	-​	-​	22​	30​	-​
---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​
27 Skaters​	-​	100​	-​	-​	241​	273​	-​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

*Due to rounding errors the goals scored pace based on 89 goals in 30 games ends up at 243 while the amount predicted by adding the paces of our forwards is 246. To avoid compounding rounding errors I'm using the 243 goal figure here.

 

[Tables of Stats]

1 - 4 - 0 and our win came in OT. We sucked and the stats show it loud and clear.

Bottom six scoring and scoring from our defense is terrible. The top six plus Hughes and Edler shouldn't have to literally do all of our scoring.

Team stats are down and frankly, I don't feel like taking the bare minimum time to even bother typing them all here.

Player​	GP​	G​	A​	P​	Predicted​	Pace​	Change​
E. Pettersson​	35​	14​	21​	35​	71 gp - 28 g - 66 p ​	82 gp – 33 g – 82 p​	-8​
B. Boeser​	35​	12​	20​	32​	66 gp - 28 g - 56 p ​	82 gp – 28 g – 75 p​	-2​
B. Horvat​	35​	9​	17​	26​	76 gp - 23 g - 52 p ​	82 gp – 21 g – 61 p​	-5​
J.T. Miller​	35​	13​	18​	31​	80 gp - 19 g - 53 p ​	82 gp – 30 g – 72 p​	-13​
T. Pearson​	35​	8​	13​	21​	81 gp - 19 g - 37 p ​	82 gp – 19 g – 49 p​	-3​
M. Ferland​	14​	1​	4​	5​	75 gp - 18 g - 36 p ​	33 gp – 2 g – 12 p​	-2​
L. Eriksson​	17​	1​	0​	1​	65 gp - 11 g - 26 p​	40 gp – 2 g – 2 p​	-1​
B. Sutter​	22​	5​	3​	8​	56 gp - 11 g - 22 p ​	52 gp – 12 g – 19 p​	-3​
S. Baertschi​	6​	0​	2​	2​	49 gp - 14 g - 26 p ​	14 gp – 0 g – 5 p​	+0​
A. Roussel​	7​	3​	1​	4​	66 gp - 9 g - 25 p ​	16 gp – 7 g – 9 p​	+1​
J. Beagle​	26​	1​	2​	3​	72 gp - 8 g - 22 p ​	61 gp – 2 g – 7 p​	-1​
T. Schaller​	33​	4​	0​	4​	62 gp - 7 g - 15 p ​	77 gp – 9 g – 9 p​	-2​
J. Leivo​	35​	7​	11​	18​	32 gp - 5 g - 12 p ​	82 gp – 16 g – 42 p​	-2​
J. Virtanen​	35​	9​	8​	17​	52 gp - 8 g - 15 p ​	82 gp – 21 g – 40 p​	-1​
T. Motte​	8​	0​	1​	1​	51 gp - 6 g - 10 p ​	19 gp – 0 g – 2 p​	-1​
N. Goldobin​	1​	0​	0​	0​	30 gp - 5 g - 12 p ​	2 gp - 0 g – 0 p​	-​
A. Gaudette​	25​	7​	8​	15​	No Prediction​	59 gp – 17 g – 35 p​	-1​
T. Graovac​	8​	2​	0​	2​	No Prediction​	19 gp – 5 g – 5 p​	-1​
Z. MacEwen​	8​	1​	1​	2​	No Prediction​	19 gp – 3 g – 5 p​	+0​
19 Forwards​	-​	97​	-​	-​	219​	227*​	-16​
---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​
A. Edler​	27​	4​	11​	15​	65 gp - 7 g - 29 p ​	63 gp – 9 g – 35 p​	-6​
T. Myers​	35​	1​	7​	8​	58 gp - 6 g - 24 p ​	82 gp – 2 g – 19 p​	+3​
C. Tanev​	35​	1​	8​	9​	50 gp - 2 g - 11 p ​	82 gp – 2 g- 21 p​	+2​
T. Stetcher​	35​	2​	5​	7​	72 gp - 2 g - 19 p ​	82 gp – 5 g – 16 p​	-3​
J. Benn​	35​	0​	6​	6​	76 gp - 4 g - 18 p ​	82 gp – 0 g – 14 p​	-2​
O. Fantenberg​	8​	1​	0​	1​	29 gp - 1 g - 5 p ​	19 gp – 2 g – 2 p​	-1​
Q. Hughes​	34​	2​	24​	26​	No Prediction​	80 gp – 5 g – 61 p​	-4​
A. Sautner​	1​	0​	0​	0​	No Prediction​	2 gp - 0 g – 0 p​	+0​
8 Defenders​	-​	11​	-​	-​	22​	26​	-4​
---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​
27 Skaters​	-​	108​	-​	-​	241​	253​	-20​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The next post will be at game 41 instead of 40 so we can look back at half a season's worth of play.

Regardless of how the team does there will be stats and probably a graph or two!

 

[M2Beezy]

Keeper a comin Norade, i like taking a look thru these posts

 

[Tables of Stats]

The big midseason write up is a work in progress but here's the table of player stats tonight.

Looking at our top-6 this season is pretty amazing.

Pettersson: 13th in points, 16th in goals scored, 9th in PP points, 21st in P/GP
Miller: 19th in points, 36th overall in goals, 11th in PP points, 26th in P/GP
Boeser: 23rd in points, 67th in goals, 24th in PP points, 30th in P/GP
Horvat: 48th in points, 81st in goals, 47th in PP points, 56th in P/GP
Pearson: 72nd in points, 81st in goals, 69th in PP points, 79th in P/GP
Virtanen: 113th in points, 81st in goals, 127th in PP points, 132nd in P/GP

*All stats are among forwards with at least 21 games played. I also didn't note ties hence listing 3 players as 81st in goals scored.

By both points and P/GP we have five players all producing at a first-line rate halfway through the season. By just goal scoring we have six first-line players as our top six. Even accounting for how much of our scoring is on the powerplay these are some impressive stats.

On defense let's look at our two standout players in Hughes and Edler using the same filter as with the forwards.

Hughes: 9th in points, 3rd in PP points, 13th in P/GP
Edler: 43rd in points, 39th in PP points, 18th in P/GP

Hughes being an elite PP QB in his rookie season is just fantastic. Edler being on pace for 40 points even factoring in missed games is also massive. These two are a big part of why both of our powerplay units are doing as well as they are. Heck, even Tanev is on pace for a career year points-wise (he already has more points than he's had in any season since '15 - '16) and Myers is starting to come around offensively.

Speaking of coming around offensively our PP is still on fire. It's clicking along at 26.7%, good for 4th in the league and is a big reason why our top six is scoring the way they are. The PK is league average tied for 15th with an 80.7% success rate. For special teams, the magic number tends to be 100% if you can beat that mark you're doing well we're currently at 107.4 which seems good.

One thing that people may find off about this team is that we give up the 8th most shots against per game (32.5) while not generating nearly that many ourselves for a difference of -0.9 shots per game. I'd be lying if I told you that this shot differential wasn't a concern of mine. That said I'm not really sure how we stack up in terms of where we give up shots in the league, and I'd be less concerned if this was a systems thing where we give up more but less dangerous shots while taking more dangerous shots of our own to compensate. If somebody like @Melvin has that data I'd be very interested in seeing it.

As a whole, the team is on pace to score 272 goals; that's 53 more than last season. Our goals against pace is 246 which would give us a goal differential of +26 this season compared to the -29 we had last season. That's a big difference and probably why we're tracking to put up 15 more points in the standings this season compared to last year.

Of course, all of this said, if the injuries do hit or if Hughes hits a rookie wall in February this team could dip but if we keep going as we have, this should be a playoff team and possibly even in a divisional spot. That's not bad for a team carrying as much dead cap space as we are.

Player​	GP​	G​	A​	P​	Predicted​	Pace​	Change​
E. Pettersson​	41​	19​	25​	44​	71 gp - 28 g - 66 p ​	82 gp – 38 g – 88 p​	+6​
B. Boeser​	41​	13​	26​	39​	66 gp - 28 g - 56 p ​	82 gp – 26 g – 78 p​	+3​
B. Horvat​	41​	12​	21​	33​	76 gp - 23 g - 52 p ​	82 gp – 24 g – 66 p​	+5​
J.T. Miller​	41​	15​	25​	40​	80 gp - 19 g - 53 p ​	82 gp – 30 g – 80 p​	+8​
T. Pearson​	41​	12​	18​	30​	81 gp - 19 g - 37 p ​	82 gp – 24 g – 60 p​	+11​
M. Ferland​	14​	1​	4​	5​	75 gp - 18 g - 36 p ​	28 gp – 2 g – 10 p​	-2​
L. Eriksson​	22​	2​	1​	3​	65 gp - 11 g - 26 p​	44 gp – 4 g – 6 p​	+4​
B. Sutter​	22​	5​	3​	8​	56 gp - 11 g - 22 p ​	44 gp – 10 g – 16 p​	-3​
S. Baertschi​	6​	0​	2​	2​	49 gp - 14 g - 26 p ​	12 gp – 0 g – 4 p​	-1​
A. Roussel​	13​	4​	2​	6​	66 gp - 9 g - 25 p ​	26 gp – 8 g – 12 p​	+3​
J. Beagle​	32​	1​	2​	3​	72 gp - 8 g - 22 p ​	64 gp – 2 g – 6 p​	-1​
T. Schaller​	39​	4​	0​	4​	62 gp - 7 g - 15 p ​	78 gp – 8 g – 8 p​	-1​
J. Leivo​	36​	7​	12​	19​	32 gp - 5 g - 12 p ​	72 gp – 14 g – 38 p​	-4​
J. Virtanen​	41​	12​	12​	24​	52 gp - 8 g - 15 p ​	82 gp – 24 g – 48 p​	+8​
T. Motte​	14​	2​	1​	3​	51 gp - 6 g - 10 p ​	28 gp – 4 g – 6 p​	+4​
N. Goldobin​	1​	0​	0​	0​	30 gp - 5 g - 12 p​	2 gp - 0 g – 0 p​	-​
A. Gaudette​	31​	8​	10​	18​	No Prediction​	62 gp – 16 g – 36 p​	+1​
T. Graovac​	8​	2​	0​	2​	No Prediction​	16 gp – 4 g – 4 p​	-1​
Z. MacEwen​	8​	1​	1​	2​	No Prediction​	16 gp – 2 g – 4 p​	-1​
19 Forwards​	-​	120​	-​	-​	219​	240​	+13​
---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​
A. Edler​	31​	4​	16​	20​	65 gp - 7 g - 29 p ​	62 gp – 8 g – 40 p​	+5​
T. Myers​	41​	3​	10​	13​	58 gp - 6 g - 24 p ​	82 gp – 6 g – 26 p​	+7​
C. Tanev​	41​	2​	10​	12​	50 gp - 2 g - 11 p ​	82 gp – 4 g- 24 p​	+3​
T. Stetcher​	41​	2​	5​	7​	72 gp - 2 g - 19 p ​	82 gp – 4 g – 14 p​	-2​
J. Benn​	37​	0​	6​	6​	76 gp - 4 g - 18 p ​	74 gp – 0 g – 12 p​	-2​
O. Fantenberg​	14​	1​	1​	2​	29 gp - 1 g - 5 p ​	28 gp – 2 g – 4 p​	+3​
Q. Hughes​	40​	4​	25​	29​	No Prediction​	80 gp – 8 g – 58 p​	-3​
A. Sautner​	1​	0​	0​	0​	No Prediction​	2 gp - 0 g – 0 p​	+0​
8 Defenders​	-​	16​	-​	-​	22​	32​	+6​
---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​
27 Skaters​	-​	136​	-​	-​	241​	272​	+19​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I know I promised graphs but it turns out I suck at working with spreadsheets (it's not a skill I've stayed current on since high school) but here's a simple table of the team's points at each interval I've covered with each of my posts in this thread.

Games Played	Points Earned	Max Points	Projected Points
5	6	10	98
10	13	20	107
15	21	30	115
20	23	40	94
25	28	50	92
30	32	60	87
35	36	70	84
41	48	82	96

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

~96 points is the projected bar to take a wildcard spot in the west this season. That mean's we've been in for half the season and in or within 4 points for a full 3/4 of the season thus far. By no means does that make us a playoff lock but we just have to suck less than 7 other teams to make it in. I think we can do that!

 

[4Twenty]

A nice stat padding night to end the first half.

 

[Tables of Stats]

A nice stat padding night to end the first half.

It never hurts to pad your stats.

-------

For the rest of those watching this thread the post for game 41 is finished now so if you haven't checked it out yet give it a look.

 

[Tables of Stats]

The team is, even after that debacle in Florida, doing well. We're still in a wild card spot, still have games in hand on every team above us, and can still score goals. We can take the lumps as they come and continue proving that we're a solid team lead by a good young core.

In terms of team stats, we're tied for 10th in GF/GP and tied for 17th in GA/GP. Our PP has slipped from 4th to 5th but is still clicking along at a 24.7% pace. Out PK has also slipped some falling below 80% for the first time in ages. As this same is only 4 games instead of 5 and we took a beating in two of those I wouldn't look at these drops as major trends unless we give up similar losses in our next five-game period.

That's it for the team report but stay tuned because I'm going to drop a break down of each team in the league's scoring in terms of top-6 forwards, bottom-6 forwards (including injury call-ups), top-2 defensemen, and bottom-4 defensemen (including injury call-ups). I figured it might be neat to see how our team stacks up league-wide in terms of scoring ratios. I think it'll be an interesting way to view our depth and defensive scoring compared to the rest of the league.

Player​	GP​	G​	A​	P​	Predicted​	Pace​	Change​
E. Pettersson​	45​	20​	27​	47​	71 gp - 28 g - 66 p ​	82 gp – 36 g – 86 p​	-2​
B. Boeser​	45​	16​	27​	43​	66 gp - 28 g - 56 p ​	82 gp – 29 g – 78 p​	+0​
B. Horvat​	45​	13​	25​	38​	76 gp - 23 g - 52 p ​	82 gp – 24 g – 69 p​	+3​
J.T. Miller​	45​	16​	26​	42​	80 gp - 19 g - 53 p ​	82 gp – 29 g – 77 p​	-3​
T. Pearson​	45​	12​	21​	33​	81 gp - 19 g - 37 p ​	82 gp – 22 g – 60 p​	+0​
M. Ferland​	14​	1​	4​	5​	75 gp - 18 g - 36 p ​	26 gp – 2 g – 9 p​	-1​
L. Eriksson​	26​	4​	2​	6​	65 gp - 11 g - 26 p​	47 gp – 7 g – 11 p​	+5​
B. Sutter​	22​	5​	3​	8​	56 gp - 11 g - 22 p ​	40 gp – 9 g – 15 p​	-1​
S. Baertschi​	6​	0​	2​	2​	49 gp - 14 g - 26 p ​	11 gp – 0 g – 4 p​	+0​
A. Roussel​	17​	5​	2​	7​	66 gp - 9 g - 25 p ​	31 gp – 9 g – 13 p​	+1​
J. Beagle​	36​	1​	2​	3​	72 gp - 8 g - 22 p ​	66 gp – 2 g – 6 p​	+0​
T. Schaller​	43​	4​	1​	5​	62 gp - 7 g - 15 p ​	78 gp – 7 g – 9 p​	+1​
J. Leivo​	36​	7​	12​	19​	32 gp - 5 g - 12 p ​	66 gp – 13 g – 35 p​	-3​
J. Virtanen​	45​	13​	12​	25​	52 gp - 8 g - 15 p ​	82 gp – 24 g – 46 p​	-2​
T. Motte​	18​	3​	2​	5​	51 gp - 6 g - 10 p ​	33 gp – 6 g – 9 p​	+3​
N. Goldobin​	1​	0​	0​	0​	30 gp - 5 g - 12 p ​	2 gp - 0 g – 0 p​	-​
A. Gaudette​	35​	8​	11​	19​	No Prediction​	64 gp – 15 g – 35 p​	-1​
T. Graovac​	8​	2​	0​	2​	No Prediction​	15 gp – 4 g – 4 p​	+0​
Z. MacEwen​	8​	1​	1​	2​	No Prediction​	15 gp – 2 g – 4 p​	+0​
19 Forwards​	-​	131​	-​	-​	219​	239​	-1​
---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​
A. Edler​	35​	4​	16​	20​	65 gp - 7 g - 29 p ​	64 gp – 7 g – 37 p​	-3​
T. Myers​	45​	4​	11​	15​	58 gp - 6 g - 24 p ​	82 gp – 7 g – 27 p​	+1​
C. Tanev​	45​	2​	11​	13​	50 gp - 2 g - 11 p ​	82 gp – 4 g- 24 p​	+0​
T. Stetcher​	45​	2​	6​	8​	72 gp - 2 g - 19 p ​	82 gp – 4 g – 15 p​	+1​
J. Benn​	38​	0​	6​	6​	76 gp - 4 g - 18 p ​	69 gp – 0 g – 11 p​	-1​
O. Fantenberg​	17​	1​	1​	2​	29 gp - 1 g - 5 p ​	31 gp – 2 g – 4 p​	+0​
Q. Hughes​	44​	4​	27​	31​	No Prediction​	80 gp – 7 g – 56 p​	-2​
A. Sautner​	1​	0​	0​	0​	No Prediction​	2 gp - 0 g – 0 p​	+0​
8 Defenders​	-​	17​	-​	-​	22​	31​	-1​
---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​	---​
27 Skaters​	-​	148​	-​	-​	241​	270​	-2​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[vanuck]

I think I remember predicting Miller would hit around 60 points at the beginning of the season, so I'll be curious to see where he ends up at.

 

[krutovsdonut]

why is leivo projected at 66 games?

 

[Tables of Stats]

why is leivo projected at 66 games?

The projections are literally just based on their current points and games played and will self adjust as time goes on. It's the same with Baertschi being predicted to play 5 more games this season, I don't think it will happen but based off of the numbers that's what the math projects.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I finally got that depth scoring analysis posted, I put it up on the mainboard because it included all 31 teams.

Here's a link to the thread: Depth Scoring Around the League