GDT: Pre-season game 3: Golden Knights @ Sharks 7pm “Streamed” on Sharks.nhl.com

[SharksAddict]

I think you guys should give Kane a chance. He’s legit stoked to be in San Jose. I think he has a career year this year. Hertl is gonna be an animal too

Seriously, I don’t understand the sourness towards Kane. Dude was a force last year once he put on teal. Let’s see how he does this year before he cast him off as overpaid.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Maybe he will perform better
Playing with better players and on a better team?

You’re going to give a player $49M based on 17 games and a prayer?

 

[hohosaregood]

He's David Clarkson 2.0. Worth more on IR than on the ice.

 

[Maladroit]

Maybe he will perform better
Playing with better players and on a better team?

He played with Jack Eichel and Ryan O'Reilly. We don't have any centers on that level right now.

 

[Dicdonya]

I totally agree with pretty much all of this.

I think EK65 getting re-signed is not something I am even remotely concerned about from a cap or $$ perspective. The day he tell DW that he is ready to re-sign, DW will make it work. Pavs is definitely a bigger concern but I with Karlsson, Braun and Dillon being more expendable I see that as do-able too. Also, Jumbo will most likely take a big pay cut if both sides agree to bring him back for 2019-20.

I can see Donskoi being a cap casualty for next year though. I see him totally want more money but given his injury history I don't think we will match his demands. Timo and Labanc most likely sign bridge deals like you said. Goodrow probably gets a slight raise. Ryan is going to be interesting. If he has a breakout season he may get a bigger raise.

I think you, and others, might be a little over optimistic about the cap crunch we are going to have next year if we resign Karlsson.

I would be interested to see how you make it work though, even if DW is able/willing to trade all of Melker, Braun, and Dillon. I have tried several times on capfriendly to build the team, using reasonable contracts and I just cannot do it. As much as I want to pretend Meier and Labanc will sign for like 3mil, it aint going to happen, and frankly we don't want them to be worth that little because it will mean they have gotten worse this year. Ryan is a huge wildcard I cannot decide what his contract will be, if hes the same guy from last year, it wont be a big hit, if he puts up like 30pts instead of 12...... This also assumes no one like chartier/goodrow/sorenson/etc break out into more then 4th liners this year.

It might be possible to bring most of the team back next year, I just think its going to require a near perfect scenario for it to happen.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I think you, and others, might be a little over optimistic about the cap crunch we are going to have next year if we resign Karlsson.

I would be interested to see how you make it work though, even if DW is able/willing to trade all of Melker, Braun, and Dillon. I have tried several times on capfriendly to build the team, using reasonable contracts and I just cannot do it. As much as I want to pretend Meier and Labanc will sign for like 3mil, it aint going to happen, and frankly we don't want them to be worth that little because it will mean they have gotten worse this year. Ryan is a huge wildcard I cannot decide what his contract will be, if hes the same guy from last year, it wont be a big hit, if he puts up like 30pts instead of 12...... This also assumes no one like chartier/goodrow/sorenson/etc break out into more then 4th liners this year.

It might be possible to bring most of the team back next year, I just think its going to require a near perfect scenario for it to happen.

There will probably be at least one significant loss but it won’t be a big enough loss to push the team out of Contender status.

I’ve gone over the cap friendly as well, kind of pointless until we see what Meier, LaBanc, and Ryan do this season. There’s at least $6M in fluctuation that I could realistically see depending on how they perform.

 

[Dicdonya]

There will probably be at least one significant loss but it won’t be a big enough loss to push the team out of Contender status.

I’ve gone over the cap friendly as well, kind of pointless until we see what Meier, LaBanc, and Ryan do this season. There’s at least $6M in fluctuation that I could realistically see depending on how they perform.

I never said we would not be contenders still, or at the very least still expected to make the playoffs.

There are lots of people here that seem to be fairly optimistic that there wont be "at least one significant loss". Significant to me means essential ending the Thornton/Pavs era, or gutting a decent chunk of the youth to keep them around.

Also, would love to see what you think the potential contract range for those 3 is.

 

[Lebanezer]

I never said we would not be contenders still, or at the very least still expected to make the playoffs.

There are lots of people here that seem to be fairly optimistic that there wont be "at least one significant loss". Significant to me means essential ending the Thornton/Pavs era, or gutting a decent chunk of the youth to keep them around.

Also, would love to see what you think the potential contract range for those 3 is.

What’s the max cap in your attempts?

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

I think you, and others, might be a little over optimistic about the cap crunch we are going to have next year if we resign Karlsson.

I would be interested to see how you make it work though, even if DW is able/willing to trade all of Melker, Braun, and Dillon. I have tried several times on capfriendly to build the team, using reasonable contracts and I just cannot do it. As much as I want to pretend Meier and Labanc will sign for like 3mil, it aint going to happen, and frankly we don't want them to be worth that little because it will mean they have gotten worse this year. Ryan is a huge wildcard I cannot decide what his contract will be, if hes the same guy from last year, it wont be a big hit, if he puts up like 30pts instead of 12...... This also assumes no one like chartier/goodrow/sorenson/etc break out into more then 4th liners this year.

It might be possible to bring most of the team back next year, I just think its going to require a near perfect scenario for it to happen.

If DW has any interest in keeping Pavs then Melker, Braun and Dillon need to be moved. My guess is that Pavs re-signs for the same cap of 6M. Jumbo re-signs for about 2M. Karlsson re-signs for Doughty money (11M).

Meier and Labanc both take contracts for about 3M. Ryan is definitely the big question mark.

Though to be honest, if we need to move away from Pavs to re-sign Karlsson, it will need to be done. I definitely think keeping both is doable but it will take a good bit of work from DW to make it work. Also, I have heard that the max cap in 2019-20 may go up to 85M as well, which will give us more flexibility.

 

[Dicdonya]

What’s the max cap in your attempts?

Im doing 82mil

 

[Mattb124]

You’re going to give a player $49M based on 17 games and a prayer?

Are we talking production or salary?

 

[Dicdonya]

If DW has any interest in keeping Pavs then Melker, Braun and Dillon need to be moved. My guess is that Pavs re-signs for the same cap of 6M. Jumbo re-signs for about 2M. Karlsson re-signs for Doughty money (11M).

Meier and Labanc both take contracts for about 3M. Ryan is definitely the big question mark.

Though to be honest, if we need to move away from Pavs to re-sign Karlsson, it will need to be done. I definitely think keeping both is doable but it will take a good bit of work from DW to make it work. Also, I have heard that the max cap in 2019-20 may go up to 85M as well, which will give us more flexibility.

Ah see this is one of the things I have seen that I just cannot agree with. Heck I saw someone do like 1.75 for Labanc, that's laughable.

We just signed Tierney to 3mil. A career 20ish point center that had one 40 pt year. We just signed Kane to 7mil, a career 50ish pt forward.

If Meier and Labanc stay just the same, and both get 40pts again, they both get more then 3mil just based on cap inflation and more proven history of scoring 40pts then Tierney. Also for at least one of Meier/Labanc, they will be getting more ice time then Tierney did.

If either of them actually get better, and lets just say both score 50-55pts. Then 3 mil is 100% out of the question, and they will start setting their sights closer to that 7mil Kane got. They wont get that much, or shouldn't, because they wont be UFA's, but Hertl just got 5.7, no reason they should not ask for that, if they score more points then he did before that contract. I think Meier will wind up making more then Labanc however.

I think the days of DW getting his young studs and superstars, like Pavs/Cooch/Thornton/Marleau all on reasonably large hometown discounts is over. Contracts like Burns/Kane/Vlassic and even Hertl all show that IMO.

If the cap does go to 85, that will help a good bit, but that also could just inflate contract demands.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Ah see this is one of the things I have seen that I just cannot agree with. Heck I saw someone do like 1.75 for Labanc, that's laughable.

We just signed Tierney to 3mil. A career 20ish point center that had one 40 pt year. We just signed Kane to 7mil, a career 50ish pt forward.

If Meier and Labanc stay just the same, and both get 40pts again, they both get more then 3mil just based on cap inflation and more proven history of scoring 40pts then Tierney. Also for at least one of Meier/Labanc, they will be getting more ice time then Tierney did.

If either of them actually get better, and lets just say both score 50-55pts. Then 3 mil is 100% out of the question, and they will start setting their sights closer to that 7mil Kane got. They wont get that much, or shouldn't, because they wont be UFA's, but Hertl just got 5.7, no reason they should not ask for that, if they score more points then he did before that contract. I think Meier will wind up making more then Labanc however.

I think the days of DW getting his young studs and superstars, like Pavs/Cooch/Thornton/Marleau all on reasonably large hometown discounts is over. Contracts like Burns/Kane/Vlassic and even Hertl all show that IMO.

If the cap does go to 85, that will help a good bit, but that also could just inflate contract demands.

The difference is that Meier and Labanc are not arbitration eligible after this season and Tierney did have those rights. Even if they get 50+ points, they will still be significantly closer to the 3 mil mark on their next contract than the 7 mil mark. Both are going to get a two or three year deal and bridge it out. If they have a good season, they're probably looking at a 3.5 mil deal. Ryan will either get a long term deal or a one year contract. One year would be more beneficial to let Martin's buyout expire before paying him.

 

[Mattb124]

He played with Jack Eichel and Ryan O'Reilly. We don't have any centers on that level right now.

That's a bit disingenuous as he was not hard matched with Eichel and O'Reilly, and it looks like he was centered more frequently by Girgenson and Reinhart in '16-'17. Not to mention that in the most recent 2 seasons he had the likes of Gionta, Pominville, Reinhart, and Okposo as his most common off-side wingers.

 

[Dicdonya]

The difference is that Meier and Labanc are not arbitration eligible after this season and Tierney did have those rights. Even if they get 50+ points, they will still be significantly closer to the 3 mil mark on their next contract than the 7 mil mark. Both are going to get a two or three year deal and bridge it out. If they have a good season, they're probably looking at a 3.5 mil deal. Ryan will either get a long term deal or a one year contract. One year would be more beneficial to let Martin's buyout expire before paying him.

That is wishful thinking IMO, I see no one recently signed to 3mil contracts that scored 40-50pts, and that is assuming neither explodes this year into more then that, but we will find out soon.

I hope you and the others are right, I would like to keep everyone important, I just do not see it happening.

 

[Alwalys]

40s for kane would be terrible. he's gotta be solidly in the 50s heading to the 60s.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I never said we would not be contenders still, or at the very least still expected to make the playoffs.

There are lots of people here that seem to be fairly optimistic that there wont be "at least one significant loss". Significant to me means essential ending the Thornton/Pavs era, or gutting a decent chunk of the youth to keep them around.

Also, would love to see what you think the potential contract range for those 3 is.

Yeah, I agree that we'll take at least one significant loss, but it might only be Donskoi. We'll probably lose at least one or two of Goodrow, Suomela, etc. but that's not a big loss IMO unless Suomela proves otherwise.

I don't know man, let's look at some comparables. Keep in mind Meier will be 22 years old and LaBanc will be 23.

Max Domi - Age 23 - 9 goals 45 points - $3.15M/2Y
Tomas Hertl - Age 22 - 21 goals 46 points - $3M/2Y
Anthony Mantha - Age 23 - 24 goals 48 points - $3.3M/2Y
Mika Zibanejad - Age 22 - 20 goals 46 points - $2.625M/2Y
Teuvo Teravainen - Age 22 - 15 goals 42 points - $2.86M/2Y
Boone Jenner - Age 22 - 30 goals 49 points - $2.9M/2Y

I specifically picked guys who had spent two years as full-time NHLers and had produced at roughly the same rate for at least one season prior to their contract year.

It looks like unless LaBanc and Meier break out this season, they will both come in at between $3M and $3.5M on a bridge. Even if they do break out, they probably still don't come in much higher than $4M on a bridge. However, if they want to sign long term, things become much more tricky.

 

[SactoShark]

Boone Jenner is 22? Dude could pass for 42.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Boone Jenner is 22? Dude could pass for 42.

He was when he signed that contract. He was one of the less recent examples as well so adjust for inflation.

 

[spintops]

I hope Kane produces early or this board will be unbearable. The first scoring drought is going to be because he is lazy and doesn't care after getting paid ? Jeez.

 

[Dicdonya]

Yeah, I agree that we'll take at least one significant loss, but it might only be Donskoi. We'll probably lose at least one or two of Goodrow, Suomela, etc. but that's not a big loss IMO unless Suomela proves otherwise.

I don't know man, let's look at some comparables. Keep in mind Meier will be 22 years old and LaBanc will be 23.

Max Domi - Age 23 - 9 goals 45 points - $3.15M/2Y
Tomas Hertl - Age 22 - 21 goals 46 points - $3M/2Y
Anthony Mantha - Age 23 - 24 goals 48 points - $3.3M/2Y
Mika Zibanejad - Age 22 - 20 goals 46 points - $2.625M/2Y
Teuvo Teravainen - Age 22 - 15 goals 42 points - $2.86M/2Y
Boone Jenner - Age 22 - 30 goals 49 points - $2.9M/2Y

I specifically picked guys who had spent two years as full-time NHLers and had produced at roughly the same rate for at least one season prior to their contract year.

It looks like unless LaBanc and Meier break out this season, they will both come in at between $3M and $3.5M on a bridge. Even if they do break out, they probably still don't come in much higher than $4M on a bridge. However, if they want to sign long term, things become much more tricky.

Thank you for taking the time to look those guys up.

All of those players came in between 3.6 to 4.72 percent of the cap when they signed. If we pretend the cap goes up to 85mil next year, thats anywhere from 3.06- 4.01 million. That 3.06 mil though was based on Mika's contract, which is also the contract signed the longest period of time ago, and therefore is the least reliable as a marker.

If we use the next highest then, it was 3.92 for Tuevo, or 3.33mil of 85mil cap. All higher then 3mil, and up to 4mil.

To be clear, the people you picked, are the BEST case scenario bridge contract. I already said in this thread, we might be able to keep everyone in the best case scenario.

Banking on the best case scenario though, seems like a totally fine, but very risky idea.

Also if either of them won't take a bridge, or hold out, or lets say Meier/Hertl/Cooch explode as a line and Meier gets 60+ points with 25-30 goals. That throws a huge wrench in the plan of just signing everyone next year, expect maybe Donskoi.

I also do not see losing Donskoi, Braun, Dillon, Suomela, Karlsson and Goodrow as a "not a big loss". That is a massive turnover of very quality(expect Karlsson), proven(except Suomela), players. If Thornton and Pavs kill it this year, it may be worth it, if they don't....I don't know any more.

On top of all this, we have to assume DW will, and wants, to trade all of Dillon, Braun and Melker. Everyone just sort of assumes that would be how we keep all our "better" players. That DW views those three the same way we do, as overpaid for their position, or ability. If he does not agree then yet more forwards, or Ryan have to go bye bye next year.

Once again, I am not saying it will be impossible to keep our players, what I am saying is that it will be very difficult, or unlikely, and I just don't want some people to lose their minds when it happens because they thought all year long that it will be just hunky dory.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I mean, if Labanc or Meier explode for 60+ points...then the Sharks can afford to let Pavelski or Donskoi go anyways.

Like, you benefit on the other side of the equation. If players like Goodrow, Ryan, Suomela, Praplan, etc. command high salaries next season, it is going to be because they are actually good players and that is a good situation to be in.

 

[Jargon]

The Kane hate is real weird. He’s given Sharks’ fans no reason to dislike him. He’s performed well and tried hard even through injury. I’m not sure why we’re supposed to assume he’s lazy and going to suck this year.

I’m optimistic, I think he wants to win and wants to perform for a team he seems to really click with, I see literally nothing that tells me otherwise.

 

[Jaleel619]

Yah I think he'll be an absolute warrior. He gives the team a different look in ways to score goals without relying entirely on plays/other team errors. Also before he arrived it seemed like we'd get edged out physically in close games and lost momentum. With Kane he sways that scale alongside Hertl, and Meier. It's going to be a great year for him, even more with everybody looking at EK.

Also I like what I heard today when DW was talking about EK, saying how he said he won his Norris' now he wants a Stanley Cup. That gave me chills!

 

[Jargon]

Yah I think he'll be an absolute warrior. He gives the team a different look in ways to score goals without relying entirely on plays/other team errors. Also before he arrived it seemed like we'd get edged out physically in close games and lost momentum. With Kane he sways that scale alongside Hertl, and Meier. It's going to be a great year for him, even more with everybody looking at EK.

Also I like what I heard today when DW was talking about EK, saying how he said he won his Norris' now he wants a Stanley Cup. That gave me chills!

Where was that interview?