Power Play Fluctuations

[FissionFire]

I was doing some research for another topic and came up with this table:

NOTE: 2008-09 are YTD numbers as of 12/4/08

Season | Top Team | PP Goals | PP Chances | PP% | League Average | Difference
1963-64|Chicago Blackhawks|51|279|18.28%|15.69%|2.59%
1964-65|Toronto Maple Leafs|51|280|18.21%|15.82%|2.39%
1965-66|Chicago Blackhawks|70|281|24.91%|18.94%|5.97%
1966-67|Chicago Blackhawks|51|232|21.98%|18.12%|3.86%
1967-68|New York Rangers|46|217|21.20%|16.86%|4.34%
1968-69|Boston Bruins|60|266|22.56%|17.40%|5.16%
1969-70|Boston Bruins|81|279|29.03%|19.47%|9.56%
1970-71|Boston Bruins|80|289|27.68%|18.83%|8.85%
1971-72|Boston Bruins|74|256|28.91%|19.38%|9.53%
1972-73|Philadelphia Flyers|74|257|28.79%|18.71%|10.08%
1973-74|New York Rangers|66|222|29.73%|19.09%|10.64%
1974-75|Boston Bruins|86|299|28.76%|20.33%|8.43%
1975-76|New York Islanders|92|290|31.72%|20.54%|11.18%
1976-77|Los Angeles Kings|68|253|26.88%|19.83%|7.05%
1977-78|Montreal Canadiens|73|229|31.88%|21.15%|10.73%
1978-79|New York Islanders|81|260|31.15%|22.72%|8.43%
1979-80|Montreal Canadiens|77|264|29.17%|21.86%|7.31%
1980-81|New York Islanders|93|317|29.34%|22.53%|6.81%
1981-82|New York Islanders|80|284|28.17%|22.85%|5.32%
1982-83|Edmonton Oilers|86|294|29.25%|22.92%|6.33%
1983-84|Minnesota North Stars|91|340|26.76%|21.91%|4.85%
1984-85|New York Islanders|71|277|25.63%|22.20%|3.43%
1985-86|Edmonton Oilers|78|295|26.44%|22.08%|4.36%
1986-87|Calgary Flames|80|318|25.16%|20.98%|4.18%
1987-88|Calgary Flames|109|383|28.46%|20.29%|8.17%
1988-89|Philadelphia Flyers|98|367|26.70%|20.99%|5.71%
1989-90|Calgary Flames|99|357|27.73%|20.77%|6.96%
1990-91|Calgary Flames|91|384|23.70%|19.44%|4.26%
1991-92|Buffalo Sabres|105|466|22.53%|19.24%|3.29%
1992-93|Detroit Red Wings|113|454|24.89%|19.57%|5.32%
1993-94|New York Rangers|96|417|23.02%|18.64%|4.39%
1994-95|Chicago Blackhawks|52|212|24.53%|17.73%|6.80%
1995-96|Pittsburgh Penguins|109|420|25.95%|17.93%|8.02%
1996-97|New York Rangers|63|287|21.95%|16.27%|5.68%
1997-98|Dallas Stars|77|385|20.00%|15.08%|4.92%
1998-99|Mighty Ducks of Anaheim|83|378|21.96%|15.81%|6.15%
1999-00|Detroit Red Wings|69|338|20.41%|16.15%|4.26%
2000-01|New Jersey Devils|71|310|22.90%|16.64%|6.26%
2001-02|Los Angeles Kings|73|353|20.68%|15.77%|4.91%
2002-03|Detroit Red Wings|76|319|23.82%|16.43%|7.39%
2003-04|Ottawa Senators|80|370|21.62%|16.46%|5.16%
2005-06|Detroit Red Wings|102|461|22.13%|17.68%|4.45%
2006-07|Montreal Canadiens|86|378|22.75%|17.58%|5.17%
2007-08|Montreal Canadiens|90|374|24.06%|17.75%|6.31%
2008-09|Detroit Red Wings|31|100|31.00%|18.50%|12.50%

* In 1977-78 the New York Islanders also finished above 30% on the PP, going 71/227 (31.28%)

I noticed some strange trends in the league average PP number. The so-called "Golden Age" featured all-time (at least since the mid-60s) efficiency ratings for the PP. From the mid-70s through the 1989-90 the league averaged over 20% and upwards to 22% almost every season. It dipped a little into the early 90s to 19%, but from there over a 5 year span it plummeted 4% and still have never really recovered. Even with the incredible PP success teams are having early this season, the league average still isn't at where it once was in the early 90s even. My question is, what happened in the 90s that made teams leaguewide seemingly inept on the PP compared to the 70s and 80s? A trap system shouldn't have any affect on a teams PP efficiency I'd think since the trap doesn't apply there. The only thing I can really think about is the explosion in the size of goaltending equipment over this time. Is this really the only reason for the precipitous drop or am I missing something?

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[Bear of Bad News]

Some initial thoughts - with apologies to those who have already read much of this via private message (from which I'm now going to shamelessly copy and paste).

My guess is that it may something to do with more "free" free agency since the lockout. More players are available these days thanks to the salary cap limiting teams' abilities to stockpile players, and particularly if players are willing to sign with a quality organization at below-market value, it could lead to a disparity in offensive aptitude.

There are holes in that theory that you've probably already noticed - the league had dynasties back in the day, so why didn't this happen then? I'd say that in the 1970s, the WHA did an effective job of limiting teams' abilities to stockpile masses of talent, because even with a lack of real free agency within the league, players were able to jump to the other league - look what happened to the Bruins in the early part of that decade. Then in the 1980s, with scores being what they were, every team had a "good" power play, so it was hard to stand out from the pack.

Something probably should have happened in the period between lockouts, since teams weren't constrained by a cap but had pretty good free agency to take advantage of - I'd credit this largely to chance (small sample size).

I definitely think that this is a once-in-a-lifetime power play we're witnessing.

 

[Canadiens Fan]

I was doing some research for another topic and came up with this table:

NOTE: 2008-09 are YTD numbers as of 12/4/08

Season | Top Team | PP Goals | PP Chances | PP% | League Average | Difference
1963-64|Chicago Blackhawks|51|279|18.28%|15.69%|2.59%
1964-65|Toronto Maple Leafs|51|280|18.21%|15.82%|2.39%
1965-66|Chicago Blackhawks|70|281|24.91%|18.94%|5.97%
1966-67|Chicago Blackhawks|51|232|21.98%|18.12%|3.86%
1967-68|New York Rangers|46|217|21.20%|16.86%|4.34%
1968-69|Boston Bruins|60|266|22.56%|17.40%|5.16%
1969-70|Boston Bruins|81|279|29.03%|19.47%|9.56%
1970-71|Boston Bruins|80|289|27.68%|18.83%|8.85%
1971-72|Boston Bruins|74|256|28.91%|19.38%|9.53%
1972-73|Philadelphia Flyers|74|257|28.79%|18.71%|10.08%
1973-74|New York Rangers|66|222|29.73%|19.09%|10.64%
1974-75|Boston Bruins|86|299|28.76%|20.33%|8.43%
1975-76|New York Islanders|92|290|31.72%|20.54%|11.18%
1976-77|Los Angeles Kings|68|253|26.88%|19.83%|7.05%
1977-78|Montreal Canadiens|73|229|31.88%|21.15%|10.73%
1978-79|New York Islanders|81|260|31.15%|22.72%|8.43%
1979-80|Montreal Canadiens|77|264|29.17%|21.86%|7.31%
1980-81|New York Islanders|93|317|29.34%|22.53%|6.81%
1981-82|New York Islanders|80|284|28.17%|22.85%|5.32%
1982-83|Edmonton Oilers|86|294|29.25%|22.92%|6.33%
1983-84|Minnesota North Stars|91|340|26.76%|21.91%|4.85%
1984-85|New York Islanders|71|277|25.63%|22.20%|3.43%
1985-86|Edmonton Oilers|78|295|26.44%|22.08%|4.36%
1986-87|Calgary Flames|80|318|25.16%|20.98%|4.18%
1987-88|Calgary Flames|109|383|28.46%|20.29%|8.17%
1988-89|Philadelphia Flyers|98|367|26.70%|20.99%|5.71%
1989-90|Calgary Flames|99|357|27.73%|20.77%|6.96%
1990-91|Calgary Flames|91|384|23.70%|19.44%|4.26%
1991-92|Buffalo Sabres|105|466|22.53%|19.24%|3.29%
1992-93|Detroit Red Wings|113|454|24.89%|19.57%|5.32%
1993-94|New York Rangers|96|417|23.02%|18.64%|4.39%
1994-95|Chicago Blackhawks|52|212|24.53%|17.73%|6.80%
1995-96|Pittsburgh Penguins|109|420|25.95%|17.93%|8.02%
1996-97|New York Rangers|63|287|21.95%|16.27%|5.68%
1997-98|Dallas Stars|77|385|20.00%|15.08%|4.92%
1998-99|Mighty Ducks of Anaheim|83|378|21.96%|15.81%|6.15%
1999-00|Detroit Red Wings|69|338|20.41%|16.15%|4.26%
2000-01|New Jersey Devils|71|310|22.90%|16.64%|6.26%
2001-02|Los Angeles Kings|73|353|20.68%|15.77%|4.91%
2002-03|Detroit Red Wings|76|319|23.82%|16.43%|7.39%
2003-04|Ottawa Senators|80|370|21.62%|16.46%|5.16%
2005-06|Detroit Red Wings|102|461|22.13%|17.68%|4.45%
2006-07|Montreal Canadiens|86|378|22.75%|17.58%|5.17%
2007-08|Montreal Canadiens|90|374|24.06%|17.75%|6.31%
2008-09|Detroit Red Wings|31|100|31.00%|18.50%|12.50%

* In 1977-78 the New York Islanders also finished above 30% on the PP, going 71/227 (31.28%)

I noticed some strange trends in the league average PP number. The so-called "Golden Age" featured all-time (at least since the mid-60s) efficiency ratings for the PP. From the mid-70s through the 1989-90 the league averaged over 20% and upwards to 22% almost every season. It dipped a little into the early 90s to 19%, but from there over a 5 year span it plummeted 4% and still have never really recovered. Even with the incredible PP success teams are having early this season, the league average still isn't at where it once was in the early 90s even. My question is, what happened in the 90s that made teams leaguewide seemingly inept on the PP compared to the 70s and 80s? A trap system shouldn't have any affect on a teams PP efficiency I'd think since the trap doesn't apply there. The only thing I can really think about is the explosion in the size of goaltending equipment over this time. Is this really the only reason for the precipitous drop or am I missing something?

Don't forget that during the seventies and eighties you saw rapid expansion and it was only in the nineties when you saw the emergence of European, American, and a whole host of goalies from Quebec performing butterfly style that the number of truly great goalies expanded.

Beginning in the 90's you saw such a marked increase in the quality of the goaltending (mostly due to talent but also in some cases due to equipment enlargement) especially when contrasted with the eighties where the overall quality was pretty low.

 

[FissionFire]

Don't forget that during the seventies and eighties you saw rapid expansion and it was only in the nineties when you saw the emergence of European, American, and a whole host of goalies from Quebec performing butterfly style that the number of truly great goalies expanded.

Beginning in the 90's you saw such a marked increase in the quality of the goaltending (mostly due to talent but also in some cases due to equipment enlargement) especially when contrasted with the eighties where the overall quality was pretty low.

I find it hard to believe that goalies got so much better in terms of skill that they were individually responsible leaguewide for a 4% drop in the league average PP and a 6-8% in the annual top PP. Sure they got better, but that's a helluva difference. Even the best goalies in history can't stop a well executed PP alone. Were the 70s and 80s a time where there were alot of "soft" goals scored on the PP?

 

[Canadiens Fan]

I find it hard to believe that goalies got so much better in terms of skill that they were individually responsible leaguewide for a 4% drop in the league average PP and a 6-8% in the annual top PP. Sure they got better, but that's a helluva difference. Even the best goalies in history can't stop a well executed PP alone. Were the 70s and 80s a time where there were alot of "soft" goals scored on the PP?

1984-85 GAA leaders
1. Barrasso 2.66
2. Riggin 2.98
3. Lindbergh 3.02
4. Penney 3.08
5. Wamsley 3.26

2000-01 GAA leaders
1. Cechmanek 2.01
2. Legace 2.05
3. Hasek 2.11
4. Nabakov 2.19
5. Roy 2.21

Two years completely picked at random. To put it in perspective Wamsley's top 5 in 1984-85 doesn't even put him in the top twenty in 2000-01. Also notice that 3 of the 5 are European born and 2 of the 5 are top ten goalies ever. Also I would venture to say that the 2000-01 netminders are athletically superior to their 1984-85 counterparts. I would say that the pp % drop and the gaa drop might be more than coincidental.

 

[pitseleh]

I find it hard to believe that goalies got so much better in terms of skill that they were individually responsible leaguewide for a 4% drop in the league average PP and a 6-8% in the annual top PP. Sure they got better, but that's a helluva difference. Even the best goalies in history can't stop a well executed PP alone. Were the 70s and 80s a time where there were alot of "soft" goals scored on the PP?

While the trap doesn't really help as much on the PP, I think changes in defensive schemes and strategies probably had an impact on the numbers. Teams began to collapse to the net so much during the nineties and block so many shots because equipment protects players better than it did in the past which means that there are probably fewer quality chances on net.

NHL.com only has save percentage numbers by situation dating back to 1998/99 (well they list 1997/98 but they seem completely incorrect). If that information exists even dating back 15-20 years, it'd be interesting to see how much that has changed over time.

For anyone who likes pictures better than numbers (like me), I've attached a graph with the information that FF posted.

 

[Canadiens Fan]

While the trap doesn't really help as much on the PP, I think changes in defensive schemes and strategies probably had an impact on the numbers. Teams began to collapse to the net so much during the nineties and block so many shots because equipment protects players better than it did in the past which means that there are probably fewer quality chances on net.

NHL.com only has save percentage numbers by situation dating back to 1998/99 (well they list 1997/98 but they seem completely incorrect). If that information exists even dating back 15-20 years, it'd be interesting to see how much that has changed over time.

For anyone who likes pictures better than numbers (like me), I've attached a graph with the information that FF posted.

Good point, and while I can't prove it with numbers, results, etc, it seems to me that you see more power plays today where the team with the man advantage doesn't even register a shot on net, in large part I would think due to defensive schemes, shot blocking, and collapsing around the net.

From my vantage point there seem's to be less tic-tac-toe power play goals in recent times and more goals scored as a result of a scramble or a rebound.

Such is the amount of team's collapsing on the penalty kill, that on the TSN game the other night the announcers pointed out that more defensemen are now purposely missing the net in an effort to avoid the mess of bodies in front of the goal, with the idea of having the puck bounce out right in front of the goalie for one of these side tap-ins that have become increasingly popular.

 

[dcinroc]

I find it hard to believe that goalies got so much better in terms of skill that they were individually responsible leaguewide for a 4% drop in the league average PP and a 6-8% in the annual top PP. Sure they got better, but that's a helluva difference. Even the best goalies in history can't stop a well executed PP alone. Were the 70s and 80s a time where there were alot of "soft" goals scored on the PP?

I think team defense improved overall.

IMO, the quality of forwards didn't change much from the mid-80s to the 90s, but the quality, size and depth of defensemen and goalies did.

I was doing some research a while back on goalies and it seems that beginning in the early 80s good quality goaltenders began to be drafted regularly and in increasing numbers. That is a big reason why GPG began to decline after 1986 (aside from the 92 spike), by which time the goalies drafted earlier began to make an impact and the leftovers from the 70s all but disappeared.

Now add to that the equipment changes that took place after about 1989 and began to spread around the league, plus adjustments in defensive systems and I think the decline is much more understandable.

Personally, I don't quite buy the argument that it's all due to goalie improvement, though that is a significant reason. After all, a number of goalies drafted in the early-mid 80s were quite successful into the 90s and 2000. Guys like Vernon (81), Vanbiesbrouck (81), Fuhr (81) and Roy (84) all had good careers in the 90s and saw their GAAs drop a goal or more during that period. Did they suddenly become that much better after 10+ years?