Speculation: Potential destinations for Grubauer?

[BobRouse]

Dustin Penner 2007

Weber too although preds matched. No one else that I recall

 

[boredmale]

Weber too although preds matched. No one else that I recall

Since 2005

List of NHL players who have signed offer sheets - Wikipedia

Ryan Kesler	Sept 12, 2006 [4]	1 year, $1.9 million	Vancouver Canucks	Philadelphia Flyers	Matched	-
Thomas Vanek	July 6, 2007 [22]	7 years, $50 million	Buffalo Sabres	Edmonton Oilers	Matched	-
Dustin Penner	July 26, 2007	5 years, $21.5 million	Anaheim Ducks	Edmonton Oilers	Accepted	1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks in 2008
David Backes	July 1, 2008	3 years, $7.5 million	St. Louis Blues	Vancouver Canucks	Matched	-
Steve Bernier	July 8, 2008	1 year, $2.5 million	Vancouver Canucks	St. Louis Blues	Matched	-
Niklas Hjalmarsson	July 9, 2010	4 years, $14 million	Chicago Blackhawks	San Jose Sharks	Matched	-
Shea Weber	July 18, 2012[23]	14 years, $110 million	Nashville Predators	Philadelphia Flyers	Matched[24]	-
Ryan O'Reilly	February 28, 2013[25]	2 years, $10 million	Colorado Avalanche	Calgary Flames	Matched

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I would actually say the Grubauer one would be alot like Hjalmarsson, although SJ used that signing to then go after Antti Niemi(via trade) by pricing him out of Chicago's reach

 

[TOGuy14]

Who knew that Grubauer would usher in the new era of offer sheet wars?!

I assume in this scenario let's say 4 teams would submit an offer on July 1st -- thereby ensuring a 25% chance of landing him, and a ~100% chance of Caps looking to offer-sheet their young players in the future.

Sure, for this kind of entertainment, the Caps will settle for a 2nd!

Offer sheets are usually made to players on contending teams with tight cap space to try and pull them away

I strongly doubt that if the Islanders made an RFA play on grubauer that Washington would be in a cap position to offer 9M+ as retaliation in a couple years

 

[General Disarray]

Since 2005

David Backes	July 1, 2008	3 years, $7.5 million	St. Louis Blues	Vancouver Canucks	Matched	-
Steve Bernier	July 8, 2008	1 year, $2.5 million	Vancouver Canucks	St. Louis Blues	Matched	-

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Wow looks like the Blues went for revenge there

 

[boredmale]

Wow looks like the Blues went for revenge there

I actually believe that was the logic behind it

 

[CodeE]

Offer sheets are usually made to players on contending teams with tight cap space to try and pull them away

I strongly doubt that if the Islanders made an RFA play on grubauer that Washington would be in a cap position to offer 9M+ as retaliation in a couple years

Bingo. A guy like Auston Matthews, despite announcing he intends to wait til the end of next season to negotiate, really isn't in that same precarious position that Grabauer is in. Everyone connected to hockey knows if another team signs him to an OS, Toronto matches, end of discussion.

Compare that to Grabauer: he wants a starting role and Washington doesn't have the cap space to retain a $4M backup goaltender especially if they want to re-sign Carlson. The two players have the same RFA rights as granted to them by the CBA, but the circumstances around them are entirely different and point to Grabauer being a far more likely OS candidate.

 

[saintunspecified]

Offer sheets are usually made to players on contending teams with tight cap space to try and pull them away

I strongly doubt that if the Islanders made an RFA play on grubauer that Washington would be in a cap position to offer 9M+ as retaliation in a couple years

I mean, what teams do and don't do is really an odd way of looking at things, because that's not the point of offer sheets. The point of offer sheets is that RFA's who are stuck in situations that are bad fits - for whatever reason - should have some recourse. But the last thing teams want is the feeling that young players have recourse, so they do everything in their power to prevent RFA's seeking and getting offer sheets.

In the case of goaltenders, this generally results in backups ready to become starters in the presence of an established starter getting traded. And it's easy to understand why. There are only two goalies on a team. They've got to share the load, and it is a bad thing for one of them to be completely unhappy with their situations. They share a coach, trainers, etc. If a starter gets hurt, there's some deep insecurity that they'll never get their job back, and that can become a distraction. It's almost like having 2 NHL quarterbacks.

As it stands NYI cannot offer sheet because they don't have their 2nd round 2019 pick.

 

[Hivemind]

To me the 5th just seems unrealistic. Like the 12th pick isn't enough? lol

Assuming the source is legit (90% chance it isn't), I assume the 5th is being given as compensation for taking back the additional contract ("AHL forward").

 

[boredmale]

Assuming the source is legit (90% chance it isn't), I assume the 5th is being given as compensation for taking back the additional contract ("AHL forward").

I can Just imagine the conversation

MacLellan: Well Lou, this is my final offer. Grubauer for your 12th pick, Dal Colle and 5th round pick in 2018

Lamoriello: I can only offer you the 12th, Dal Colle and a 6th in 2020.

MacLellan: I can settle for your 5th in 2019 but that is as low as I can go

Lamoriello: 6th in 2019

MacLellan: No it has to be the the 12th pick, Dal Colle and 5th in 2019

Lamoriello: Sorry I can't accept that offer

MacLellan: Guess I will have to look elsewhere

 

[hb12xchamps]

Assuming the source is legit (90% chance it isn't), I assume the 5th is being given as compensation for taking back the additional contract ("AHL forward").

100% chance it isn't. Just posted this in the group

Very sorry to say to stop waiting for today. Deal is in place, but Caps have asked for the trade to not be announced until they are done touring DC with the Cup this weekend. Very sorry for the buildup and it won’t happen again.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Do people honestly think Grubauer can fetch 12th overall, Dal Colle and a 5th round pick? And its an honest question.

Man oh man i would think thats the fleecing of the century if Caps get that for a goalie that hasnt proven himself really yet and also pretty much has to be traded. ... Also Dal colle is still so damn young and has a ton of upside

I must be missing something?

 

[artilector]

Do people honestly think Grubauer can fetch 12th overall, Dal Colle and a 5th round pick? And its an honest question.

Man oh man i would think thats the fleecing of the century if Caps get that for a goalie that hasnt proven himself really yet and also pretty much has to be traded. ... Also Dal colle is still so damn young and has a ton of upside

I must be missing something?

Even as a Caps fan, it seems like too much. And too soon -- there hasn't even been any time for a bidding war.
At this rate, the Caps should wait a few days and look to get the 1st OA, heh. Carey Grubauer!

 

[dogbazinho]

Do people honestly think Grubauer can fetch 12th overall, Dal Colle and a 5th round pick? And its an honest question.

Man oh man i would think thats the fleecing of the century if Caps get that for a goalie that hasnt proven himself really yet and also pretty much has to be traded. ... Also Dal colle is still so damn young and has a ton of upside

I must be missing something?

No. You are not missing anything.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Even as a Caps fan, it seems like too much. And too soon -- there hasn't even been any time for a bidding war.
At this rate, the Caps should wait a few days and look to get the 1st OA, heh. Carey Grubauer!

Hahah i agree.. Seems like it!

 

[SherVaughn30]

Do people honestly think Grubauer can fetch 12th overall, Dal Colle and a 5th round pick? And its an honest question.

Man oh man i would think thats the fleecing of the century if Caps get that for a goalie that hasnt proven himself really yet and also pretty much has to be traded. ... Also Dal colle is still so damn young and has a ton of upside

I must be missing something?

It's not so far fetched. Two division rivals trading with each other always results in over payment. I will note, if you look at the history of both McPhee and BMac, they are more tight lipped than any other GM's when it comes to team transactions being leaked.

 

[Invictus12]

I’ll be disappointed if Lou gives up 11th or 12th overall for Grubauer.

If he goes on to solve the goaltending issue, my outlook on the trade would improve, but with two 2nds and a 3rd in his pocket, I think a 1st would be overpayment.

It’s not like Carolina is dealing their 1st, and they only have one 2nd and no 3rd in this year’s draft.

NYI could offer up their 2nd and 3rd and Carolina would only be able to top that by adding picks in future drafts, which I would think have less value.

Here’s to hoping a 2nd and 3rd get it done.

I would think it would depend on how many teams will be pursuing him... Don't know much about the Talbot situation at the time but, if Oilers were the only team looking for a starter, it's kind of hard to convince one team to give up a top pick when you have no one offering you anything while also at risk of losing the guy altogether... Sounds like Grubauer is pursued by several teams which most likely means a higher return for Washington...

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

Partied out Phil

 

[boredmale]

Do people honestly think Grubauer can fetch 12th overall, Dal Colle and a 5th round pick? And its an honest question.

Man oh man i would think thats the fleecing of the century if Caps get that for a goalie that hasnt proven himself really yet and also pretty much has to be traded. ... Also Dal colle is still so damn young and has a ton of upside

I must be missing something?

As an Islanders fan I would be pissed if it was just the 12th pick. If the Islanders trade that 12thpick they better get the Caps 31st back in a trade for Grubauer, even then I will not be that happy, I believe Grubauer is worth the 41st + something of decent value at most

 

[TOGuy14]

Do people honestly think Grubauer can fetch 12th overall, Dal Colle and a 5th round pick? And its an honest question.

Man oh man i would think thats the fleecing of the century if Caps get that for a goalie that hasnt proven himself really yet and also pretty much has to be traded. ... Also Dal colle is still so damn young and has a ton of upside

I must be missing something?

MDC is what makes this stick out at face value but at the end of the day outside of draft position he isn't all that great.

Still relatively young for sure, but has show no real progression in his development for a few years now.

 

[Hivemind]

Dal Colle was never in the original rumor, that was a random HF poster who added that in. The rumor said "AHL player." Not that the rumor was legit anyway.

 

[boredmale]

Dal Colle was never in the original rumor, that was a random HF poster who added that in. The rumor said "AHL player." Not that the rumor was legit anyway.

I added that in because I gauge Dal Colle's value as a mid to late 2nd. Why would a trade rumor include some useless AHL who has no future in the NHL? I guess maybe you can say Alan Quine who is a NHL tweener who has played the past couple seasons for the Islanders(but spent the bulk this year injured) could be that who is worth mentioning

My basic point though was I thought it would be utterly ridiculous that a trade that involves Islanders 12th pick(which in itself is an overpayment) would be predicated on the Islanders also having to give up a 5th rounder as well. Basically the 5th round pick was so completely random

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

As an Islanders fan I would be pissed if it was just the 12th pick. If the Islanders trade that 12thpick they better get the Caps 31st back in a trade for Grubauer, even then I will not be that happy, I believe Grubauer is worth the 41st + something of decent value at most

Im happy to see a NYI fan comment on this. I was gonna ask what NYI fans feel about this cause as a non fan of both teams, I think Lou would look like a fool giving up 12th, MDC and a 5th.

And I agree that the 12th alone would even be an insane return. Im not sure how this rumor even came out but there is no chance it will ever come close to that return

The guy turns 27 at the start of the season and he has still only played 100 games

I think a reasonable return would be a 2nd and a decent prospect or a pick package very similar to Talbots return when he was dealt to Oilers(2nd, 3rd, 7th)... AT MOST

 

[boredmale]

And I agree that the 12th alone would even be an insane return. Im not sure how this rumor even came out but there is no chance it will ever come close to that return

The guy turns 27 at the start of the season and he has still only played 100 games

I think many people somehow saw Lou Lamerillo trading the 9th pick for Schneider in 2013 and thinking he would strike again since Grubauer has similar stats as Schneider did at roughly a same age. I think the comparison fails because Schneider at his time of trade (fairly or unfairly) I believe had a much higher stock due to him always being hyped since he was an 18 year old.

From an Islanders fanpoint I believe most of us want those first rounders(one or both) being used to upgrade our defense and feel like if we are going to get a goalie lesser assets should be used. We also would prefer somebody who is older but proven(say like Howard or Crawford)

 

[Kolzilla]

Since 2005

List of NHL players who have signed offer sheets - Wikipedia

Ryan Kesler	Sept 12, 2006 [4]	1 year, $1.9 million	Vancouver Canucks	Philadelphia Flyers	Matched	-
Thomas Vanek	July 6, 2007 [22]	7 years, $50 million	Buffalo Sabres	Edmonton Oilers	Matched	-
Dustin Penner	July 26, 2007	5 years, $21.5 million	Anaheim Ducks	Edmonton Oilers	Accepted	1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks in 2008
David Backes	July 1, 2008	3 years, $7.5 million	St. Louis Blues	Vancouver Canucks	Matched	-
Steve Bernier	July 8, 2008	1 year, $2.5 million	Vancouver Canucks	St. Louis Blues	Matched	-
Niklas Hjalmarsson	July 9, 2010	4 years, $14 million	Chicago Blackhawks	San Jose Sharks	Matched	-
Shea Weber	July 18, 2012[23]	14 years, $110 million	Nashville Predators	Philadelphia Flyers	Matched[24]	-
Ryan O'Reilly	February 28, 2013[25]	2 years, $10 million	Colorado Avalanche	Calgary Flames	Matched

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I would actually say the Grubauer one would be alot like Hjalmarsson, although SJ used that signing to then go after Antti Niemi(via trade) by pricing him out of Chicago's reach

Am I wrong, or wasn't Niemi offersheeted by SJS right after Hjalmarsson??

 

[HolyJumpin]

This seems a lot like a Blues trade to me. Blues flip a player for a pick at the draft then move that pick for Grubauer. Trade history is there.