The sky is the limit for him. His numbers in the past have been severely depressed
https://hfboards.mandatory.com/thre...oving-me-wrong.2554119/page-38#post-150638449
1.His first year he was in a prolonged slump and had to play with guys that were NOT EVEN CLOSE to 1st liners in Brown and Hyman for half the year. To put it in perspective, the guys he is supposed to be competing with had these "poor streaks" in their first year:
Barzal 5 games without a point (he went on a tear after that)
Ovechkin never went more than 6 games without a goal in his first year (Matthews doubled that at 13 and STILL hit 40) and his worst pointless streak was 2 games whereas Matthews went 5 without a point and 13 with 3 points
Crosby went 6 without a goal although he was always tearing it up point wise
Malkin went 8 without a goal
McDavid went 7 without a goal although he still had 8 points during that stretch
Now I know someone could say he is just a streaky player, but I don't believe this "downswing" was a function of anything more than terrible linemates, not enough ice time (lowest of the mentioned above in their first year) and a bit of poor luck. I think with better coaching and better linemates, he easily clears 45 goals and 80 points the first year.
2.His 2nd year his worst slump was 5 games without a goal and 4 games without a point, although still with Hyman, he did improve and he had Nylander the entire year, before his concussion and other injuries he was pacing for nearly 95 points and 47 goals. Maybe he slows down and ends up with only 45 goals and 90 points, but I don't think this is too unheard of.
His ice time is still VERY underwhelming compared to other players, he faces tough matchups and his PP ice time goes DOWN to 2 minutes (2:30 in rookie year).
3.This year his overall line IMO is slightly better than before, Marleau>Hyman in previous years and Kap honestly is closer to Willie than Hyman in the past is to current Marleau.
His ice time is up, his powerplay ice time is back up to 2:30 and that powerplay is going to give him the easiest points of his life (he wasn't even on powerplay 1 for some of his first and 2nd year). To put it in perspective, he has
4 powerplay goals in 7 games this year, his previous year totals were 8/5 (scored 40, paced for 45+) and so he scored
13 in 140 games the previous two years. I don't think any of us are expecting Auston to score 40 on the PP, but 13 and pacing for 18 only being 1/4.5 of his goal production is scary to think how much better he can be on the PP.
Conclusion:
It would not surprise me if Auston EASILY clears 100 this year, not just because his start, but because everything I mentioned above, he was already underrated if you were going purely by stats (Auston "Can't hit 70" Matthews), but the powerplay he has is STUPID and it's going to result in EXTREMELY easy goals (relative to him and relative to anyone).
60-50 is not out of the question and if they ever give him even more PP time and Willie returns making a Kap-Matt-Willie line.....God help the NHL.