Plus-minus and predicting

GellMann

Registered User
Dec 16, 2014
4,281
3,779
Lancaster NY
I've been reading about advanced stats for hours over the past two days, I've found some really cool statistical analyses that give r^2 values between predicting future goals and things like xGF, SCF, Corsi, etc.

Every single one of these studies and articles mentions in passing that these have better predictive power than goal based metrics, that they've been shown to do so. Many studies mention this is why plus minus is bad, and that it has nowhere near the predictive power of the shot based metrics.

This is completely believable to me, it makes sense with what I know about hockey and what I know about statistics.

But I cannot find one person who cites this information, or any studies themselves, that do this same predictive analysis on plus minus compared to a shot based metric. Not a single one. Just loads of people saying it's been shown.

Again, I believe them. But can someone please give me a link? Where are the results that show this?
 

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