Please Grade Dubas on today's Free Agent Pickups.

[Ashdown2]

I changed my vote on Dubas just now on his signings. I really though he wasn’t going to learn from past errors. As it turns out he learns very well. Trusting in your core and treating everyone with respect is one thing.
Thinking everyone needs to look good on a spreadsheet in the rest of the lineup was a mistake. He’s added the nasty ornary element and fighters and physical elements to level out the team construction properly.
That said, i was only voting on signings.

We can’t afford M.Rielly and he really needs to manage assets on this. Trading him before the season starts is probably the best thing to do for best return. Reason being for that though is Rielly doesn’t bring everything you expect of a #1 dman. He just doesn’t have the big shot from the point and doesn’t quarterback the powerplay very well either.

Time to asset manage. Kerfoot is in the same boat in that he is lacking. Center that isn’t a center and can’t get you the puck the higher majority of the time off the draw.

I like both but that is nothing to do with whats right to do. So i am hoping Dubas isn’t done.

im glad you have turned it around,
the rest u wrote I totally agree with .

kerfoot is pretty much out, i think they are just trying to find a trading partner and maybe get a 3 way trade going. its going to be tough trading him to get an equal value asset that makes under 3 mil

as for reilly, i know this is a popular opinion to trade him but contending team NEVER trade away top pairing Dmen. boston didnt do it, st lousis didnt do it, tampa didnt do it , pittsburgh didnt do it, washington didnt do it ........ basically pick any contending team from the past decade.
you kind of need those players, you would need some sort of miracle to get a top 4 guy that can play today

 

[Ashdown2]

Ritchie-Matthews-Marner
Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander
Bunting-Kampf-Kase
Mikeyhev-Spezza-Simmonds

Richie isn't a top line player. he takes to many stupid penalties, his advanced stats are average and honestly i dont think his endurance is good enough to play over 20min a night.


ive said it last year a million times ... you need to overload the top line like very other powerhouse team. The "spread offense" method is so mid 2000s
And frankly tavares and nylander have no chemistry. The suck together and its wasting both their potential.

nylander- matthews- marner
kerfoot - tavares - kase/bunting
everything else based on chemistry


bench
brooks
gabriel
simmonds

 

[Pookie]

Agreed.

What's his success rate with his "value contract" acquisitions thus far....maybe 25%?

You are a generous person.

 

[Stonehands1990]

I think you still need to split up Matthews and Marner or this team ends up with the same result next season

Oh I 100% want to spread the big 4 across 3 lines. This is just what I THINK Keefe will run. 34, 91 & 16 should drive their own lines for 11 million

 

[zeke]

Agreed.

What's his success rate with his "value contract" acquisitions thus far....maybe 25%?

Last year the value contracts were....

Campbell
Spezza
Bogosian
Galchenyuk
Thornton
Simmonds
Hutchison
Vesey
Boyd
Barabanov
Lehtonen

So like....50%?

 

[Stonehands1990]

Richie isn't a top line player. he takes to many stupid penalties, his advanced stats are average and honestly i dont think his endurance is good enough to play over 20min a night.


ive said it last year a million times ... you need to overload the top line like very other powerhouse team. The "spread offense" method is so mid 2000s
And frankly tavares and nylander have no chemistry. The suck together and its wasting both their potential.

nylander- matthews- marner
kerfoot - tavares - kase/bunting
everything else based on chemistry


bench
brooks
gabriel
simmonds

Quennville, Laviolette & Trotz all balance their lines. Both methods can be effective

 

[zeke]

Richie isn't a top line player. he takes to many stupid penalties, his advanced stats are average and honestly i dont think his endurance is good enough to play over 20min a night.


ive said it last year a million times ... you need to overload the top line like very other powerhouse team. The "spread offense" method is so mid 2000s
And frankly tavares and nylander have no chemistry. The suck together and its wasting both their potential.

nylander- matthews- marner
kerfoot - tavares - kase/bunting
everything else based on chemistry


bench
brooks
gabriel
simmonds

I'm not sure you're right about the top 2 lines but you might be- and its definitely worth a look, especially since Tavares has shown throughout his career that he doesn't need elite linemates to do his thing.

 

[TMLAM34]

I think splitting Matthews and Marner gives us our best chance to win. Put them together after a PK, PP or when we need a goal towards the end of the game but let them drive their own lines especially when both demanded 11 million a year.

Ritchie - Matthews - Nylander
Bunting - Tavares - Marner
Kerfoot - Kampf - Mikheyev
Simmonds - Engvall/Brooks - Spezza

 

[Racer88]

Oh I 100% want to spread the big 4 across 3 lines. This is just what I THINK Keefe will run. 34, 91 & 16 should drive their own lines for 11 million

Understand and I agree 100% that it will likely not happen

 

[Racer88]

Kass
Bunting
Richie
3 free agent signings that are all risky.
Kase highly injury prone and may never really play for the Leafs and if he does how long before he is hurt again?

Bunting at 26 years old has very limited NHL experience and the stuff I have read says he is unlikely to repeat his production of last year.

Richie from everything I have read he plays a rugged game with some bite. I really like this aspect of him but I have also read lots of reports that he is very inconsistent and needs to be constantly motivated.

I understand why Dubas has to pick up players like this from the bargain bin, to many holes and not enough money left but it seems risky to be potentially wasting another year and potentially his job on these risky acquisitions.
I find very little evidence in any of these three players to say the teams next seasons results will be any different then last year.
He gets a solid D from me.

 

[Pookie]

Oh I 100% want to spread the big 4 across 3 lines. This is just what I THINK Keefe will run. 34, 91 & 16 should drive their own lines for 11 million

I like your optimism.

but Keefe will do what Matthews tells him to do.

 

[Thissiteisgarbage]

Who knows what verbal agreements were made to Marner about who/where he plays...I get a sense, given his sky high demands so far, that something like that might be in place.

 

[Dreakmur]

Richie isn't a top line player. he takes to many stupid penalties, his advanced stats are average and honestly i dont think his endurance is good enough to play over 20min a night.

Playing any forward over 20 minutes in the regular season is moronic.

ive said it last year a million times ... you need to overload the top line like very other powerhouse team. The "spread offense" method is so mid 2000s

Tampa Bay spreads out their talent, as does Vegas. Boston does have a stacked line, but often drops Pastrnak to play with Krejci when they need a goal. The Islanders run 4 lines.

Colorado is the only "powerhouse" team that completely loads up 1 line all the time, and look how that worked out for them in the playoffs.

When you have two elite Cs and two elite RWs, it only makes sense to run with two lines.

And frankly tavares and nylander have no chemistry. The suck together and its wasting both their potential.

Play Matthews with Nylander and Tavares with Marner.

 

[Dreakmur]

Who knows what verbal agreements were made to Marner about who/where he plays...I get a sense, given his sky high demands so far, that something like that might be in place.

Next years opening night roster should tell us a lot. Based on the year and half, Keefe isn't in control of this team.

 

[egd27]

Last year the value contracts were....

Campbell
Spezza
Bogosian
Galchenyuk
Thornton
Simmonds
Hutchison
Vesey
Boyd
Barabanov
Lehtonen

So like....50%?

Here the 25 Value (<$3M) UFA that Dubas has signed since taking over.

I wouldn't consider the success rate to be anywhere near 50%, but I'm sure you can defend your BFF by finding a dozen gems.

Jooris, Josh
Cracknell, Adam
Subban, Jordan
Ennis, Tyler
Hutchinson, Michael
Marincin, Martin
Gravel, Kevin
Agostino, Kenny
Shore, Nick
Åberg, Pontus
Kossila, Kalle
Gaudet, Tyler
Wilson, Garrett
Holl, Justin
Marincin, Martin
Simmonds, Wayne
Boyd, Travis
Bogosian, Zach
Vesey, Jimmy
Dell, Aaron
Hutchinson, Michael
Sabourin, Scott
Källgren, Erik
Spezza, Jason
Thornton, Joe

 

[zeke]

Here the 25 Value (<$3M) UFA that Dubas has signed since taking over.

I wouldn't consider the success rate to be anywhere near 50%, but I'm sure you can defend your BFF by finding a dozen gems.

Jooris, Josh
Cracknell, Adam
Subban, Jordan
Ennis, Tyler
Hutchinson, Michael
Marincin, Martin
Gravel, Kevin
Agostino, Kenny
Shore, Nick
Åberg, Pontus
Kossila, Kalle
Gaudet, Tyler
Wilson, Garrett
Holl, Justin
Marincin, Martin
Simmonds, Wayne
Boyd, Travis
Bogosian, Zach
Vesey, Jimmy
Dell, Aaron
Hutchinson, Michael
Sabourin, Scott
Källgren, Erik
Spezza, Jason
Thornton, Joe

Cute that you need to include Marlies signings.

Especially since even when you do that the success rate looks good.

 

[razor ray]

I think the team is worse vs last year talent wise by a wide gap. I thought last years team was the best Leafs team in quite awhile. Perhaps the chemistry will be better this year and maybe a deadline acquisition pushes them to win a first round series.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

Here the 25 Value (<$3M) UFA that Dubas has signed since taking over.

I wouldn't consider the success rate to be anywhere near 50%, but I'm sure you can defend your BFF by finding a dozen gems.

Jooris, Josh
Cracknell, Adam
Subban, Jordan
Ennis, Tyler
Hutchinson, Michael
Marincin, Martin
Gravel, Kevin
Agostino, Kenny
Shore, Nick
Åberg, Pontus
Kossila, Kalle
Gaudet, Tyler
Wilson, Garrett
Holl, Justin
Marincin, Martin
Simmonds, Wayne
Boyd, Travis
Bogosian, Zach
Vesey, Jimmy
Dell, Aaron
Hutchinson, Michael
Sabourin, Scott
Källgren, Erik
Spezza, Jason
Thornton, Joe

Even though you included some AHL signings, hitting on 1 out of 3 value contracts is pretty good. Much better than overpaying bottom 6/pair "sure things" on long-term deals.

 

[Mess]

I think the team is worse vs last year talent wise by a wide gap. I thought last years team was the best Leafs team in quite awhile. Perhaps the chemistry will be better this year and maybe a deadline acquisition pushes them to win a first round series.

Those 1st and 2nd round series likely will run through Boston and Tampa Bay, so the moves being made have to focus on that to come out of the Atlantic.

I agree with you in that I'm sure the Leafs are not better because like most I'm sure people went scrambling to google to look up Bunting, Kampf, Menell, Gabriel, trying to figure out who they were, and likely having not seen them play in the NHL (as most haven't much), so there is no name recognition like when you sign a Joe Thornton or Zach Bogosian or losing a Zach Hyman and Nick Foligno etc.

Experience, leadership, talent level, proven NHL contributors the Leafs all declined in last year to this year transactions as the new additions have not made the Leafs better, but they have made them different as you say. Definitely bigger and more physical and perhaps that was the goal to attempt to bring the "killer instinct" as management kept claiming was missing by surrounding the team accordingly.

Its going to be a different dynamic and different chemistry and I think the best way to judge its effectiveness is if we see a noticeable in the Core 4 play who have excelled in regular season play but struggled under hard hitting, tighter checking lower scoring playoff style hockey. Are we going to see more dump and chase and less rush attacks as they change the system to prepare for when it really matters the playoffs.

 

[conFABulator]

I spend enough time reading on this board (and much less time posting) to know that for many, this thread is not about the job that Dubas has done so far this off-season and is instead just another opportunity for pro and anti-Dubas guys to battle it out under the guise or non-biased analysis. I will try to give my unbiased thoughts here. As always, I start by framing the question being answered and provide context for my answers:

1. We are assessing the work Dubas (and his team) have done this off-season - I have expanded beyond just UFA season because I feel the question being answered is about the whole off-season. Obvious note here; the off-season is not done yet.
2. We are not evaluating moves that are not part of the off-season (contracts signed, draft picks traded, etc). These are topics for a larger, full body of work conversation.
3. We should measure Dubas' performance against that of his peers. The off-season is a competitive dynamic for sure; trades and signings are all a function of what other GMs are doing. As for his peer group, I am looking at the top 10 teams in the NHL last year -- these teams have the same aspirations and potentially the same cap constraints and situations.

So, here are the top 10 in last year's standings, with quick notes about each of them:

1. Colorado: They had an OK off-season. They locked up Landeskog and Makar...important pieces for sure, let's see how those deals look in the future, including the near future when McKinnon is up for resigning. They lost their Vezina finalist goalie, Graves, Saad, Timmins, Donskoi, Bellemare and 1st. The only significant face coming in is Keumper...which might be a downgrade in net and he is UFA next year. Sakic kept the core (mostly) together, but is that a great off-season? Better than the Leafs? I would say worse.
2. Vegas: They also had an OK off-season. They lost their Vezina winning face of the franchise and replaced him with Brossoit. That's a downgrade. They also inexplicably took on Dadonov and his big contract. At best, we can score this off-season as incomplete (maybe there is another shoe to drop) but as it stands this was not a good off-season. Not as good as the Leafs.
3. Carolina: This was a head-scratcher. They lost Hamilton, Mrazek, Njedelkovic, Foegele and are betting on Andersen, Raanta, DeAngelo, Bear and Cole to make up the gap? That is not a good off-season. Not as good as the Leafs.
4. Florida: OK, here we go. This team made some nice moves. They re-signed some guys they like in Verhaeghe, Bennett and Montour, they may have overpaid...maybe not. They added Reinhart. They lost some a draft pick, a goalie prospect and let Driedger walk (get taken in the Expansion Draft). It's hard not to think they are better. Nice off-season...with their addition of Reinhart they improved more than the Leafs did.
5. Pittsburgh: Not a good off-season. They somehow lost two players in the expansion draft in McCann and Tanev. They added no FA's of significance and they still have goalie questions. They got a B (low A) level prospect back for McCann, but this looks like a failure of an offseason.
6. Toronto: Seems pretty good from here. Out are Andersen, Hyman, Bogosian, Foligno and Thornton. The key names coming in are Mrazek, Ritchie, Kampf, and Bunting. That's an upgrade in goal, and a downgrade on Hyman and Bogosian but the team got younger, deeper, grittier and opened some spots for youth to push for roles (Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, Anderson, Mennel). They also seem to have the roles to ice the structure they are looking for (i.e Kampf as a defensive center). This feels like a neutral off-season, not a step back.
7. Washington: No free agent signing or significant losses though the Ovie contract looks like trouble.
8. Tampa Bay: Tough off-season. They were $18M over the cap so something had to give. Yeah, they got some value signings on key veterans but they lost Gourde, Coleman, Goodrow, Savard, Johnson, Schenn and McElhinney. They won back to back and now they pay the price. The Leafs had a better off-season.
9. Minnesota: Tough, weird off-season. Lateral moves at best with Suter, Soucy, Parise and Bonino (maybe) replaced with some value signings. They inexplicably gave their 8th ranked prospect to the Leafs and those buyouts. Those cap penalties are crippling for years to come (not this year, but after this year) while they have not yet signed Karpizov and that one is complicated as he wants to know the Wild can compete. Ugly and tough off-season, much worse than the Leafs.
10. Boston. Incomplete? They got Hall signed to a fair deal, but they list Rask (it might only be an injury, but the Ullmark signing complicates that) and Krejci. Those are two big losses and Foligno, Huala and Ullmark are not the answers for this ageing team.

So, of the top 10 teams in the NHL, many of whom are getting older and can't count on improvement coming from the development of young stars how many of them have had a better off-season than the Leafs? I count one...Florida.

I went through the trouble of writing all of this because we can't assess our off-season performance in a vacuum. 31 other GMs are trying to do what Dubas is trying to do...make their team better now and in the future. It's hard and I think Dubas has done well.

I give him a B+ We haven't replaced Hyman or Bogosian for sure, but we did give ourselves options. I think the goaltending is upgraded...look at every other goalie that moved and ask if you would have rather had that guy on that deal...maybe Driedger or Nedjelkovic but both are young and unproven.

B+

 

[egd27]

Even though you included some AHL signings, hitting on 1 out of 3 value contracts is pretty good. Much better than overpaying bottom 6/pair "sure things" on long-term deals.

I suppose it is.
The fact remains though, it's likely that less than half (if you are optimistic) of all these new signings are going to "hit".
Let's hope it's the right guys.

 

[zeke]

I spend enough time reading on this board (and much less time posting) to know that for many, this thread is not about the job that Dubas has done so far this off-season and is instead just another opportunity for pro and anti-Dubas guys to battle it out under the guise or non-biased analysis. I will try to give my unbiased thoughts here. As always, I start by framing the question being answered and provide context for my answers:

1. We are assessing the work Dubas (and his team) have done this off-season - I have expanded beyond just UFA season because I feel the question being answered is about the whole off-season. Obvious note here; the off-season is not done yet.
2. We are not evaluating moves that are not part of the off-season (contracts signed, draft picks traded, etc). These are topics for a larger, full body of work conversation.
3. We should measure Dubas' performance against that of his peers. The off-season is a competitive dynamic for sure; trades and signings are all a function of what other GMs are doing. As for his peer group, I am looking at the top 10 teams in the NHL last year -- these teams have the same aspirations and potentially the same cap constraints and situations.

So, here are the top 10 in last year's standings, with quick notes about each of them:

1. Colorado: They had an OK off-season. They locked up Landeskog and Makar...important pieces for sure, let's see how those deals look in the future, including the near future when McKinnon is up for resigning. They lost their Vezina finalist goalie, Graves, Saad, Timmins, Donskoi, Bellemare and 1st. The only significant face coming in is Keumper...which might be a downgrade in net and he is UFA next year. Sakic kept the core (mostly) together, but is that a great off-season? Better than the Leafs? I would say worse.
2. Vegas: They also had an OK off-season. They lost their Vezina winning face of the franchise and replaced him with Brossoit. That's a downgrade. They also inexplicably took on Dadonov and his big contract. At best, we can score this off-season as incomplete (maybe there is another shoe to drop) but as it stands this was not a good off-season. Not as good as the Leafs.
3. Carolina: This was a head-scratcher. They lost Hamilton, Mrazek, Njedelkovic, Foegele and are betting on Andersen, Raanta, DeAngelo, Bear and Cole to make up the gap? That is not a good off-season. Not as good as the Leafs.
4. Florida: OK, here we go. This team made some nice moves. They re-signed some guys they like in Verhaeghe, Bennett and Montour, they may have overpaid...maybe not. They added Reinhart. They lost some a draft pick, a goalie prospect and let Driedger walk (get taken in the Expansion Draft). It's hard not to think they are better. Nice off-season...with their addition of Reinhart they improved more than the Leafs did.
5. Pittsburgh: Not a good off-season. They somehow lost two players in the expansion draft in McCann and Tanev. They added no FA's of significance and they still have goalie questions. They got a B (low A) level prospect back for McCann, but this looks like a failure of an offseason.
6. Toronto: Seems pretty good from here. Out are Andersen, Hyman, Bogosian, Foligno and Thornton. The key names coming in are Mrazek, Ritchie, Kampf, and Bunting. That's an upgrade in goal, and a downgrade on Hyman and Bogosian but the team got younger, deeper, grittier and opened some spots for youth to push for roles (Sandin, Liljegren, Robertson, Anderson, Mennel). They also seem to have the roles to ice the structure they are looking for (i.e Kampf as a defensive center). This feels like a neutral off-season, not a step back.
7. Washington: No free agent signing or significant losses though the Ovie contract looks like trouble.
8. Tampa Bay: Tough off-season. They were $18M over the cap so something had to give. Yeah, they got some value signings on key veterans but they lost Gourde, Coleman, Goodrow, Savard, Johnson, Schenn and McElhinney. They won back to back and now they pay the price. The Leafs had a better off-season.
9. Minnesota: Tough, weird off-season. Lateral moves at best with Suter, Soucy, Parise and Bonino (maybe) replaced with some value signings. They inexplicably gave their 8th ranked prospect to the Leafs and those buyouts. Those cap penalties are crippling for years to come (not this year, but after this year) while they have not yet signed Karpizov and that one is complicated as he wants to know the Wild can compete. Ugly and tough off-season, much worse than the Leafs.
10. Boston. Incomplete? They got Hall signed to a fair deal, but they list Rask (it might only be an injury, but the Ullmark signing complicates that) and Krejci. Those are two big losses and Foligno, Huala and Ullmark are not the answers for this ageing team.

So, of the top 10 teams in the NHL, many of whom are getting older and can't count on improvement coming from the development of young stars how many of them have had a better off-season than the Leafs? I count one...Florida.

I went through the trouble of writing all of this because we can't assess our off-season performance in a vacuum. 31 other GMs are trying to do what Dubas is trying to do...make their team better now and in the future. It's hard and I think Dubas has done well.

I give him a B+ We haven't replaced Hyman or Bogosian for sure, but we did give ourselves options. I think the goaltending is upgraded...look at every other goalie that moved and ask if you would have rather had that guy on that deal...maybe Driedger or Nedjelkovic but both are young and unproven.

B+

One thing you missed there is that Florida lost Wennberg, who may not be a great player but did have a great/lucky year last year for them. So Reinhart isn't just a straight add but he's replacing a guy who scored at a 24gl/45pt pace for them last year.

Also, Driedger is a big big loss for them, even if he was a fluke. They're gonna need Knight be really good to replace him.

 

[conFABulator]

One thing you missed there is that Florida lost Wennberg, who may not be a great player but did have a great/lucky year last year for them. So Reinhart isn't just a straight add but he's replacing a guy who scored at a 24gl/45pt pace for them last year.

Also, Driedger is a big big loss for them, even if he was a fluke. They're gonna need Knight be really good to replace him.

Those are good points. So Reinhart is a slight upgrade on Wennberg and Knight could be a downgrade on what Driedger gave them last year...so Florida's ograde comes down a bit...and they were the only contender I ranked ahead of Dubas this off-season

 

[Maplebeasts]

Only question I have about the Panthers is goaltending. Bob has been an abomination ever since he signed and Knight though promising is terribly unproven. Unless Bob figures it out (I doubt it) that is a lot to ask of a goalie in their D+3 with barely any pro experience.

 

[Thornbury]

I think the team is worse vs last year talent wise by a wide gap. I thought last years team was the best Leafs team in quite awhile. Perhaps the chemistry will be better this year and maybe a deadline acquisition pushes them to win a first round series.

Other than Hyman and Bogosian (who was clearly a third pairing guy) I can't see the talent drop-off that you are suggesting.