Playoffs, Draft and lotto format announced - Are you happy with the format for the habs, or no?

Are you happy with the draft, lotto + playoff format from a Habs perspective?


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    170

malcb33

Registered User
Apr 10, 2005
1,130
1,075
New Zealand
Looking back at the standings that year. Wow Washington had a great regular season. 54-15-13 for 121 points. 8 points better than any team. Montreal on the other hand was 33 points behind that at 88 points. They were the 19th ranked team in the league going into the playoffs. Anything is possible.
Halak was able to hold Washington to 2.33 goals per game and Pittsburg to 2.23 that playoffs.

With the offence and PP Pittsburg have, I don't see Price being able to limit them the way Halak did in 2010.
 

CHfan1

Registered User
Apr 23, 2012
8,024
9,252
Halak was able to hold Washington to 2.33 goals per game and Pittsburg to 2.23 that playoffs.

With the offence and PP Pittsburg have, I don't see Price being able to limit them the way Halak did in 2010.


I don’t see Price doing it either. But Washington’s 2010 offence was better than Pittsburgh is now. Pittsburgh is at 3.24 goals per game. The Caps that season were at 3.88. They also had too 100 point + players in Ovechkin and Backstrom. And two more ppg players in Semin and Green. Holding them to 2.33 goals per game was quite the feat.
 

HabsCowboysOwn

Wak Prescott the 40M/yr fraud, here we gooo!
Feb 28, 2008
2,552
4,661
Montréal
It's a pathetic way of thinking, I know. But I absolutely want MB fired already. I do not want him in a position to have success because given his tenure, any success is from sheer luck.

It’s not pathetic at all. On the contrary, it tells me you’re a sensible fan who wants his team to have success in the long term instead of winning some pointless games in an embarrassing gimmick tournament.

At this point, I fully expect Molson to extend Bergevin for at least 5 years if we get past Pittsburgh and we’d also lose our 8th overall pick in the process. It’d be a disaster and no fan of this team should want that to happen.
 

WeThreeKings

Habs cup - its in the BAG
Sep 19, 2006
91,117
91,535
Halifax
Looking back at the standings that year. Wow Washington had a great regular season. 54-15-13 for 121 points. 8 points better than any team. Montreal on the other hand was 33 points behind that at 88 points. They were the 19th ranked team in the league going into the playoffs. Anything is possible.

They got swept in the conference finals. Yeah anything is possible in a series. But poorly constructed Cinderella teams always lose out eventually.

And dont talk about St Louis. A perennial contender who was sunk by goaltending. Added a top two way C in the league and found a goalie.

If Montreal added ROR and Taylor Hall it would be a totally different story here.
 

PhysicX

Registered User
Nov 17, 2010
7,846
6,196
MTL
I'll start by saying - YES - i'm very happy for us.

Playoffs is a hail mary. We didn't deserve it - but we're being told "hey - beat this team, and you're in". I know there's a lot of negativity around here usually - but when the rails started falling off the season earlier in the year, if we had been told "hey - if you beat this team, you're in the playoffs" - I know I personally would have taken it. So i'm certainly happy being given a second chance.

Lotto odds - we'll know before the play-ins if #1, 2 or 3 picks are in-play. I'm far from a pro-tanker - but if last season as we were fighting for a playoff spot in the last few weeks of the season, if we had known before season ended that if Habs miss - we win a lotto picks (or - have between a 12.5% to 37.5% chance at once) - that would have been a hell of a consolation prize. And if no lotto picks are won - than screw it, i definitely want to win no matter what. So - I think knowing this beforehand, especially if no lotto picks are won by teams 24-17th - will be a big plus.

Odds of us winning a lotto pick under normal circumstances was 6%. Seems like a super long shot. I like the fact that all teams 24-17ths are being gathered in a pool with a 24.5% chance to win either pick. I think the math translates to giving us a 3% overall chance per pick vs 6% - which is less - but I still feel like i like this 2 round approach better for us. Because with 6% odds, I feel like we'd never win. 12.5% if we make it to round 2 is more promising.

And - as someone who always wants to make the playoffs and argues we'd have a 'puncher's chance' once in - I think the unique circumstances with this season give us some strong consideration for an upset. So i'd love to see us actually win against Pitt and do good - and i'm glad we're being given the chance.

So how does everyone else feel about it?
A Hail Mary, from what I remember, has about a 2% chance of success. Our playoff hopes are like throwing a Hail Mary from 70 yards out.

With the way Habs have been trending this passed decade, we'll pick 9-10.
 
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PhysicX

Registered User
Nov 17, 2010
7,846
6,196
MTL
You have to work within the constraints of the real world. And in the real world - the pandemic happened which is absolutely unprecedented. Unique circumstances called for some unique....end of season happenings. Based on all of the rumors we had been hearing, i think any of the below scenarios could have been plausible:

- whole season is cancelled and they expand lotto draft to every team (no one gets to play in playoffs after all), a bit like 2005. Our lotto odds go down anyways (prolly 3% or less)
- whole season is cancelled - and lotto is highly restricted, most you can go up is 4 slots (no shot at 1-3 for us - even if we win lotto all we move up to is 4, 5 or 6th).
- we are put into playoffs (24 teams) and as such excluded altogether from lotto odds.
- we are put into playoffs (24 teams) and are restricted to a max of +4 to our rank if we win lotto

I don't know how serious the first option was considered - but options 2, 3 and 4 were very heavily rumored from all insiders. I find that what they came up with is much, much better for us.

We get the playoffs. If we're good and can go on a run - great. We're in the playoffs - let's go.
If we suck (as you all seem to think we do) we'll lose, and our lotto odds remain mostly intact

Honestly - I think this is a fantastic outcome for us. I'm obviously not surprised at the reaction from you guys on HF though.
"If we're good." How can anyone argue in good faith with people who are blinded by their own fandom? The 2019-2020 season has shown us this team is not good. After approximately 70 games, you still have a hard time accepting this as fact. How come?
 

BLONG7

Registered User
Oct 30, 2002
35,618
21,951
Nova Scotia
Visit site
Halak was able to hold Washington to 2.33 goals per game and Pittsburg to 2.23 that playoffs.

With the offence and PP Pittsburg have, I don't see Price being able to limit them the way Halak did in 2010.
The last time WE were in da playoff, we scored 1.86 goals per game...and since that time we have lost Radulov. So, it really doesn't matter what Price does....
We should try to hold the GM accountable for a TEAM performance, works wonders for other teams.
 

BaseballCoach

Registered User
Dec 15, 2006
20,495
8,801
"If we're good." How can anyone argue in good faith with people who are blinded by their own fandom? The 2019-2020 season has shown us this team is not good. After approximately 70 games, you still have a hard time accepting this as fact. How come?
Here is something to consider.

The idea in hoping to finish low is to improve the odds of getting a good player or two through the draft.

We're told that the WORST thing would be to beat Pittsburgh, win another round, then lose in the second round (final 8). But is it? Teams that finish in the final 8 have a better chance of getting good players in Free Agency. So your odds go down on one metric but go up on another.

Even if winning one round is possible on luck, it is just as likely to happen because some of our young players take a next step. Suppose Kotkaniemi, with the extra time, comes back and provides a credible third line scoring threat. Suppose Romanov is allowed to play and immediately provides an upgrade on LD. So now, going into next season, you have the same prospects you have now, but they are better than we might have thought, we get a chance at better free agents, and we still have 12 picks.

More importantly, suppose we win two series because Price stands on his head, or Tatar becomes Mike Cammalleri, or Petry or Weber play at a Conn Smythe level for 12 games. Well then their trade values just shot way up!! That would likely get us way more than the difference in draft position. Would you rather lose fast and be stuck with an old weakened Price at $10.5M for six years? Or get to the final 8 and be able to trade Price for a first-line winger?
 

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,076
14,579
The last time WE were in da playoff, we scored 1.86 goals per game...and since that time we have lost Radulov. So, it really doesn't matter what Price does....
We should try to hold the GM accountable for a TEAM performance, works wonders for other teams.

The last time Da Pens were in Da playoffs - they scored 1.5 gpg and were swept in round 1 by a team who got swept themselves by a wildcard team the next round. Theyve since lost Phil Kessel.

By your logic - i guess we're sweeping the Penguins right?

OR - and this is truly a crazy idea, so try to bare with me - OR one counterperformance in a playoff series doesn't define who you are - especially a few seasons removed with the team looking much different. Crazy i know
 
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bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,076
14,579
A Hail Mary, from what I remember, has about a 2% chance of success. Our playoff hopes are like throwing a Hail Mary from 70 yards out.

With the way Habs have been trending this passed decade, we'll pick 9-10.

Im not saying were favorites or anything. But we do have some good things going for us.

1. Price. He's great. His issue past couple of seasons is he plays as best in league or close most of season....and then has stretches of 1-2 weeks at a time where everything is horrible. Not sure if its mental or what. Obviously - if he stinks, we're in trouble. But if he does really well - he could help us win games we arent expected to. Considering how on an individual level you know how much he craves the shot at a cup - im hoping he'll be on his game

2. We are usually very strong season starters. How often in the past 5-7 seasons are we a top 5 team in league the first month or so? It seems often.

I dont think us having success in playoffs is all that far fetched. We had a bad season with some horrible stretches (forget the 2 8 game losing streaks - just in feb/march we were ahead and winning a bunch of games and gave up ridiculous leads to lose instead). I think the break could be beneficial for a team like us.
 

Natey

GOATS
Aug 2, 2005
62,287
8,427
Super pumped. I'd rather the chance at a miracle run than another draft with Bergevin overseeing things.
 
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WeThreeKings

Habs cup - its in the BAG
Sep 19, 2006
91,117
91,535
Halifax
The last time Da Pens were in Da playoffs - they scored 1.5 gpg and were swept in round 1 by a team who got swept themselves by a wildcard team the next round. Theyve since lost Phil Kessel.

By your logic - i guess we're sweeping the Penguins right?

OR - and this is truly a crazy idea, so try to bare with me - OR one counterperformance in a playoff series doesn't define who you are - especially a few seasons removed with the team looking much different. Crazy i know

Then let me clarify this for you.

During Bergevins tenure. That 1.8 goals per game he mentioned? Is the average for MBs teams in the playoffs against starting goalies.

That means if you take away Gudlevskis, Hammond and whoever that other awful Tampa goalie was.. his teams score 1.8 goals in the playoffs.

I wouldn't be surprised to see that number hold true again this year.
 
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CrAzYNiNe

who could have predicted?
Jun 5, 2003
11,748
2,889
Montreal
Then let me clarify this for you.

During Bergevins tenure. That 1.8 goals per game he mentioned? Is the average for MBs teams in the playoffs against starting goalies.

That means if you take away Gudlevskis, Hammond and whoever that other awful Tampa goalie was.. his teams score 1.8 goals in the playoffs.

I wouldn't be surprised to see that number hold true again this year.

It’s unfathomable that some people have hope in this team. Did they forget this team had 2 8 game losing streaks this year? It’s a bad team... with the freebie point the habs look a lot better then they are. What is the stat, 19 wins in 71 games? They should have something like 59 points if OT loses were 0 points and SO were just a tie. The nhls gimmick helps show bad team to be mediocre in the standings.
 

BaseballCoach

Registered User
Dec 15, 2006
20,495
8,801
Then let me clarify this for you.

During Bergevins tenure. That 1.8 goals per game he mentioned? Is the average for MBs teams in the playoffs against starting goalies.

That means if you take away Gudlevskis, Hammond and whoever that other awful Tampa goalie was.. his teams score 1.8 goals in the playoffs.

I wouldn't be surprised to see that number hold true again this year.

If it holds true, we probably lose to the Pens.

But if we beat the Pens and even more so if we win another round after that, then chances are we will have greatly improved the trade value of quite a number of players, and greatly improved the chances of getting better UFAs to come to a final 8 team. So even if not sustainable long-term, those pluses can be turned into a stronger roster going forward.

The lottery draft is a case of success breeding failure and failure breeding success. But in other areas, the usual pattern in life of success breeding more success comes into play as well. I prefer to look at those options, which also allows me to cheer for my team without thinking the sky is going to fall as a result.

Our unexpected 2010 playoff run cost us several draft ranking spots, but it also got us Lars Eller for Halak, whereas we never, never would have got a recent first-round draftee for a ninth-round picked goaltender if we had lost in four or five to Washington.
 

PhysicX

Registered User
Nov 17, 2010
7,846
6,196
MTL
Here is something to consider.

The idea in hoping to finish low is to improve the odds of getting a good player or two through the draft.

We're told that the WORST thing would be to beat Pittsburgh, win another round, then lose in the second round (final 8). But is it? Teams that finish in the final 8 have a better chance of getting good players in Free Agency. So your odds go down on one metric but go up on another.

Even if winning one round is possible on luck, it is just as likely to happen because some of our young players take a next step. Suppose Kotkaniemi, with the extra time, comes back and provides a credible third line scoring threat. Suppose Romanov is allowed to play and immediately provides an upgrade on LD. So now, going into next season, you have the same prospects you have now, but they are better than we might have thought, we get a chance at better free agents, and we still have 12 picks.

More importantly, suppose we win two series because Price stands on his head, or Tatar becomes Mike Cammalleri, or Petry or Weber play at a Conn Smythe level for 12 games. Well then their trade values just shot way up!! That would likely get us way more than the difference in draft position. Would you rather lose fast and be stuck with an old weakened Price at $10.5M for six years? Or get to the final 8 and be able to trade Price for a first-line winger?

1. So you think players and their agents will choose a team based on this year's playoff performances for teams that have finished 17-24 in the standings after a ~70-game season? Really? Especially for a team like Montreal, which has had issues alluring players for as long as we can remember. I highly doubt winning two rounds would change how Montreal is perceived by players and their agents. My opinion, especially considering this season's atypical playoffs.

2. Herein lies one of the positives for the Habs of the 2020 playoffs format. Giving some youngsters experience playing in meaningful games. Couple of questions: How valuable is this experience? How will Suzuki, Kotkaniemi, Poehling, Juulsen, Mete and Fleury be used by a coach who has time and time again doubled-down on veterans to try and win games? How is CJ going to affect our prospect's development and confidence?

Notwithstanding our prospects' play-in/playoff performances, I believe the standings are a much more significant factor with respect to whether free agents would want to sign with us.

3. We won't be trading Price unless he asks for a trade. Same goes for Weber. Or we have a change in management/owner. Again, my personal belief.
 
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nhlfan9191

Registered User
Aug 4, 2010
19,585
17,344
Then let me clarify this for you.

During Bergevins tenure. That 1.8 goals per game he mentioned? Is the average for MBs teams in the playoffs against starting goalies.

That means if you take away Gudlevskis, Hammond and whoever that other awful Tampa goalie was.. his teams score 1.8 goals in the playoffs.

I wouldn't be surprised to see that number hold true again this year.

Lindback was something else. He basically gift wrapped that 14 Tampa series. The sad thing is the games were still close despite the sweep.
 

Grate n Colorful Oz

Hutson Hawk
Jun 12, 2007
35,310
32,163
Hockey Mecca
Here is something to consider.

The idea in hoping to finish low is to improve the odds of getting a good player or two through the draft.

We're told that the WORST thing would be to beat Pittsburgh, win another round, then lose in the second round (final 8). But is it? Teams that finish in the final 8 have a better chance of getting good players in Free Agency. So your odds go down on one metric but go up on another.

Even if winning one round is possible on luck, it is just as likely to happen because some of our young players take a next step. Suppose Kotkaniemi, with the extra time, comes back and provides a credible third line scoring threat. Suppose Romanov is allowed to play and immediately provides an upgrade on LD. So now, going into next season, you have the same prospects you have now, but they are better than we might have thought, we get a chance at better free agents, and we still have 12 picks.

More importantly, suppose we win two series because Price stands on his head, or Tatar becomes Mike Cammalleri, or Petry or Weber play at a Conn Smythe level for 12 games. Well then their trade values just shot way up!! That would likely get us way more than the difference in draft position. Would you rather lose fast and be stuck with an old weakened Price at $10.5M for six years? Or get to the final 8 and be able to trade Price for a first-line winger?

GMs aren't your average HF fans, most are aware the context is different. Maybe get with the program. Making several rounds after a three month break isn't gonna turn heads. At least, not even close to doing the same thing after a full season before making those rounds.

Also, better value or not, Bergevin doesn't know how to strike when the iron is hot.

Your living a life of illusion
 
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WeThreeKings

Habs cup - its in the BAG
Sep 19, 2006
91,117
91,535
Halifax
If it holds true, we probably lose to the Pens.

But if we beat the Pens and even more so if we win another round after that, then chances are we will have greatly improved the trade value of quite a number of players, and greatly improved the chances of getting better UFAs to come to a final 8 team. So even if not sustainable long-term, those pluses can be turned into a stronger roster going forward.

The lottery draft is a case of success breeding failure and failure breeding success. But in other areas, the usual pattern in life of success breeding more success comes into play as well. I prefer to look at those options, which also allows me to cheer for my team without thinking the sky is going to fall as a result.

Our unexpected 2010 playoff run cost us several draft ranking spots, but it also got us Lars Eller for Halak, whereas we never, never would have got a recent first-round draftee for a ninth-round picked goaltender if we had lost in four or five to Washington.

The core of that team was largely built on the back of an aggressive free agent class from Bob Gainey. All of which signed, not following a conference finals appearance, but years and years of being mediocre.

To get free agents, we need to spend the money on free agents. Period.
 

Natey

GOATS
Aug 2, 2005
62,287
8,427
But a non deserving team, built by the same idiot overseeing things gets you super pumped? Not trying to bring you down, but this idiot has his finger prints all over this poorly built franchise.
Yeah because I get to watch them play hockey. They may suck, but Bergevin was getting a free pass due to injuries/covid either way.

I might as well enjoy getting to see Gallagher play as much as I can because this team isn't getting better with Bergevin around.
 

Grate n Colorful Oz

Hutson Hawk
Jun 12, 2007
35,310
32,163
Hockey Mecca
The core of that team was largely built on the back of an aggressive free agent class from Bob Gainey. All of which signed, not following a conference finals appearance, but years and years of being mediocre.

To get free agents, we need to spend the money on free agents. Period.

To be fair, Habs had won the conference one year before.

The reason Gainey was able to attract them is the organization still had class and most importantly had shown a willingness to do what it takes to make the team better. They were also making the playoffs consistently.

With Bergevin, everything seems to be such a **** show, mirred in mediocrity for half a decade. 2 playoff wins in 5 years. Signing here is desperation at this point. It's like being so desperate you'll pick-up the first skirt you see on Ontario street, even though she's 6'1 and has a coarse voice.
 

PhysicX

Registered User
Nov 17, 2010
7,846
6,196
MTL
Im not saying were favorites or anything. But we do have some good things going for us.

1. Price. He's great. His issue past couple of seasons is he plays as best in league or close most of season....and then has stretches of 1-2 weeks at a time where everything is horrible. Not sure if its mental or what. Obviously - if he stinks, we're in trouble. But if he does really well - he could help us win games we arent expected to. Considering how on an individual level you know how much he craves the shot at a cup - im hoping he'll be on his game

2. We are usually very strong season starters. How often in the past 5-7 seasons are we a top 5 team in league the first month or so? It seems often.

I dont think us having success in playoffs is all that far fetched. We had a bad season with some horrible stretches (forget the 2 8 game losing streaks - just in feb/march we were ahead and winning a bunch of games and gave up ridiculous leads to lose instead). I think the break could be beneficial for a team like us.
1. I'm a fan of Price. Although he's a great goalie, our current lineup is too weak to make a big splash in these playoffs. Who will produce on offense? Do we expect our powerplay to magically arise from the dead? It's unfair to make this all about Price once again.

2. We're talking about a season beginning in the post-season. It's a different type of monster, which no one has observed before. I think it's dishonest to bring up how well we've fared at the start of the previous X-amount of seasons considering my point above.

How will the break impact teams remains to be seen. A part from injury-ridden teams (like the Avs), which should benefit from this break, we're in unknown territory. That, in itself, is exciting. But to what extent is it impactful? No clue.
 

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