Playoffs, Draft and lotto format announced - Are you happy with the format for the habs, or no?

Are you happy with the draft, lotto + playoff format from a Habs perspective?


  • Total voters
    170

Omar

Registered User
Oct 10, 2017
2,109
1,552
How am I not analyzing the state of our team properly? You're just throwing out words now.
If you think we can win, you tell me, are you? If you think it’s worth risking a valuable piece for our future, are you?
 

Omar

Registered User
Oct 10, 2017
2,109
1,552
Does it matter with Bergevin in charge?
Yes it does because as fans we should be putting pressure on ownership and management that this mentality of just making the playoffs isn’t good enough for this franchise.
 

BLONG7

Registered User
Oct 30, 2002
35,621
21,958
Nova Scotia
Visit site
Isn't hoping your team does well - even against strong odds - part of being a sports fan?
Hope is a favorite word of our GM also.............we shouldn't have to hope, we should just be better by now. Fire MB and we get the addition by subtraction which would do wonders for our team.
MB has built a 24th place team, and that says it all for me. If they were a playoff team, we would then hope they can make it through the round of 16 on a yearly basis.

The only thing I can now hope for, concerning the Habs, is a new GM. The fans deserve better.
 

Natey

GOATS
Aug 2, 2005
62,295
8,430
Yes it does because as fans we should be putting pressure on ownership and management that this mentality of just making the playoffs isn’t good enough for this franchise.
It's not going to happen regardless this year. So it doesn't matter. And the owner doesn't care.
 
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Beer and Chips

Registered User
Feb 5, 2018
1,267
916
Dude, I am not ranting. How much more do you need to see from MB to realize that he cannot build a competitive team?

I guess my post could be misinterpreted different ways, my bad for not being explicit. I meant that this play-in playoffs, lol, could be the last chance for some on the roster to see a playoff round and for different reasons depending on the player.
How you got the impression that I am a MB fan from that I don't know. :huh: :D
 

ahmedou

DOU
Oct 7, 2017
19,244
18,632
upload_2020-6-4_17-17-6.png
 
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bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,078
14,589
Still say this is great for Habs.

We have the highest odds out of all teams for Lafreniere right now
 

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,078
14,589
We don’t have the best odds at all. Each team who loses the play in has an equal % chance at winning first overall.

Yes and as the biggest underdog we have the highest chance of losing the play-ins.
 

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,078
14,589
Whether we have the highest chance to lose or not, we are still amongst other losers who have an equal weight in the lottery.

Among the 31 teams in the league - Habs currently have the best odds for Lafreniere.

Why exactly are you arguing with me?
 

Doc McKenna

A new era 2021
Jan 5, 2009
11,812
11,733
Ok who has better odds? Which of the other 30 teams? Correct me fully by all means.
From what I read, its 12.5 for all play in teams. So no we don't have better odds. We have equal odds, but not better. To have the BEST, you need to be better than something else, not equal. That would make you wrong and needing correcting. Though maybe the reporter from sportsnet got it wrong.

"Among the 31 teams in the league - Habs currently have the best odds for Lafreniere.

Why exactly are you arguing with me? "

All of this is that we lose the playin round, that you somehow think we stink more than some of the teams playing. While true, it doesn't mean we don't get some surprise like a hot goalie, or hot hands on Tatar or Gally. How about we lose the first round before proclaiming we have the best odd. Imagine the pens lose to us and win the draft lotto...uggh I would hate the pens more than even now.

We have only ever played them twice since they came into the league. We have beat them both times though. They lost first round against a Tavares less Isles last season, and lost against the caps in second round 2 years ago. They aren't as good as they once were.
 
Last edited:

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,078
14,589
From what I read, its 12.5 for all play in teams. So no we don't have better odds. We have equal odds, but not better. To have the BEST, you need to be better than something else, not equal. That would make you wrong and needing correcting. Though maybe the reporter from sportsnet got it wrong.

"Among the 31 teams in the league - Habs currently have the best odds for Lafreniere.

Why exactly are you arguing with me? "

All of this is that we lose the playin round, that you somehow think we stink more than some of the teams playing. While true, it doesn't mean we don't get some surprise like a hot goalie, or hot hands on Tatar or Gally. How about we lose the first round before proclaiming we have the best odd. Imagine the pens lose to us and win the draft lotto...uggh I would hate the pens more than even now.

We have only ever played them twice since they came into the league. We have beat them both times though. They lost first round against a Tavares less Isles last season, and lost against the caps in second round 2 years ago. They aren't as good as they once were.

You guys are just so used to countering any positive statements made and then liking all of each others posts that you are spouting nonesense this morning.

We can't "wait until we lose the first round before proclaiming we have the best odds". By that time our odds would be the same as other 7 losers, 12.5%.

Out of all 16 play-in teams - Habs are the worst team and facing the best team and hence the most likely to lose.

Therefore as of today - the Montreal Canadiens have better odds to land Lafreniere than any other NHL team.
 
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Doc McKenna

A new era 2021
Jan 5, 2009
11,812
11,733
You guys are just so used to countering any positive statements made and then liking all of each others posts that you are spouting nonesense this morning.

We can't "wait until we lose the first round before proclaiming we have the best odds". By that time our odds would be the same as other 7 losers, 12.5%.

Out of all 16 play-in teams - Habs are the worst team and facing the best team and hence the most likely to lose.

Therefore as of today - the Montreal Canadiens have better odds to land Lafreniere than any other NHL team.
That is not how odds work. Go back to school and learn math. Even if we lose, 7 other teams do. We still have the same odds. Just because they are a better team than we are also doesn't mean we are more likely to lose to them than say Chi losing to whoever they are playing. There are no odds till you actually lose the series. Upsets happen each and every year. Ever wonder why we have playoffs if the best team was just going to win it each time?? How about the fact the president cup winner usually doesn't win the stanley cup. Regular season points doesn't equal post season play, never has.

Injuries, fatigue, weird hockey bounces play a huge role in momentum swings. Over confidence is a huge one. What if the pens come in lightly on the habs and we go up 2-0 in games...sure they could beat us, but this is not like the usual end of season playoffs even. Players have been off doing whatever they like within quarantine and not playing. This is a lot more like preseason than post season. Habs are usually hot starters and then gas out by December/January to fall to mediocrity. Its why we are always in no mans land come trade deadline because after our usual losing streak we are sitting in 8-10th spot and not sure to buy or sell.

You are falling into a trap of even thinking this is close to regular playoffs. Its nothing of the sort. The only odds is you have wishful thinking we will lose the series. Thats fine, but its not better odds. Nor does it change that all 8 losing teams have the EXACT same odds for the actual lotto.

What if a team tanks it, or doesn't have some of their better players show up for the playins, do they then become the favourites? What about a young kid steps in and plays lights out(see poehlings game against the leafs) Way too many variables to just pretend like some of the other teams that fell from 17-24 weren't just as crap as habs. You aren't even playing the BEST team, you are playing the highest seeded 9-16 team. And maybe not even because of conference differences.

So go ahead and name call, it still doesn't make you right. Just juvenile.
 

Grate n Colorful Oz

Hutson Hawk
Jun 12, 2007
35,310
32,163
Hockey Mecca
You guys are just so used to countering any positive statements made and then liking all of each others posts that you are spouting nonesense this morning.

We can't "wait until we lose the first round before proclaiming we have the best odds". By that time our odds would be the same as other 7 losers, 12.5%.

Out of all 16 play-in teams - Habs are the worst team and facing the best team and hence the most likely to lose.

Therefore as of today - the Montreal Canadiens have better odds to land Lafreniere than any other NHL team.

I agree with both you and them.

I think Chicago and Montreal are pretty close in their odds of winning, which is the worst of all 16 teams.
 

Doc McKenna

A new era 2021
Jan 5, 2009
11,812
11,733
I agree with both you and them.

I think Chicago and Montreal are pretty close in their odds of winning, which is the worst of all 16 teams.
Yes but then it still goes down to new lotto balls. So its still the same odds for any team that loses their series. Just because one team is better doesn't mean its naturally going to win the series. It doesn't change the odds for after we lose. Because you can't count which team has better odds till after the playin.

Its not us vs how bad other teams are because it doesn't matter how bad any of the other potential losers are, you still have to win the lotto vs the other 7 losers of the playin. It does not change the odds mathematically. Worst case scenario we get swept second round and draft 17th which I feel is just as likely as picking first, perhaps more so. We only have to win 3 games. Which requires less luck or skill than winning 4 games. Statistically we have better odds in a best of 5 instead of a best of 7 to advance.
 

Grate n Colorful Oz

Hutson Hawk
Jun 12, 2007
35,310
32,163
Hockey Mecca
That is not how odds work. Go back to school and learn math. Even if we lose, 7 other teams do. We still have the same odds. Just because they are a better team than we are also doesn't mean we are more likely to lose to them than say Chi losing to whoever they are playing. There are no odds till you actually lose the series. Upsets happen each and every year. Ever wonder why we have playoffs if the best team was just going to win it each time?? How about the fact the president cup winner usually doesn't win the stanley cup. Regular season points doesn't equal post season play, never has.

Injuries, fatigue, weird hockey bounces play a huge role in momentum swings. Over confidence is a huge one. What if the pens come in lightly on the habs and we go up 2-0 in games...sure they could beat us, but this is not like the usual end of season playoffs even. Players have been off doing whatever they like within quarantine and not playing. This is a lot more like preseason than post season. Habs are usually hot starters and then gas out by December/January to fall to mediocrity. Its why we are always in no mans land come trade deadline because after our usual losing streak we are sitting in 8-10th spot and not sure to buy or sell.

You are falling into a trap of even thinking this is close to regular playoffs. Its nothing of the sort. The only odds is you have wishful thinking we will lose the series. Thats fine, but its not better odds. Nor does it change that all 8 losing teams have the EXACT same odds for the actual lotto.

What if a team tanks it, or doesn't have some of their better players show up for the playins, do they then become the favourites? What about a young kid steps in and plays lights out(see poehlings game against the leafs) Way too many variables to just pretend like some of the other teams that fell from 17-24 weren't just as crap as habs. You aren't even playing the BEST team, you are playing the highest seeded 9-16 team. And maybe not even because of conference differences.

So go ahead and name call, it still doesn't make you right. Just juvenile.

He's leaning on play-ins+lotto odds and I have to agree with him, doesnt mean I agree with his name calling though.

Even Forbes has the Habs with the worst odds for the play-ins, so de facto add lotto odds to play-in odds and as of right now, Habs stand first for a betting man.

2020 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs: Schedule, Standings, Bracket, Odds For Hockey’s Return To Play

Go look at the play-in brackets. Aside from Chicago, I have a hard time picking winners. They are very close matchups.

Whereas with the Habs, yeah sure they could surprise, but it's unlikely.
 

bobholly39

Registered User
Mar 10, 2013
22,078
14,589
That is not how odds work. Go back to school and learn math. Even if we lose, 7 other teams do. We still have the same odds. Just because they are a better team than we are also doesn't mean we are more likely to lose to them than say Chi losing to whoever they are playing. There are no odds till you actually lose the series. Upsets happen each and every year. Ever wonder why we have playoffs if the best team was just going to win it each time?? How about the fact the president cup winner usually doesn't win the stanley cup. Regular season points doesn't equal post season play, never has.

Injuries, fatigue, weird hockey bounces play a huge role in momentum swings. Over confidence is a huge one. What if the pens come in lightly on the habs and we go up 2-0 in games...sure they could beat us, but this is not like the usual end of season playoffs even. Players have been off doing whatever they like within quarantine and not playing. This is a lot more like preseason than post season. Habs are usually hot starters and then gas out by December/January to fall to mediocrity. Its why we are always in no mans land come trade deadline because after our usual losing streak we are sitting in 8-10th spot and not sure to buy or sell.

You are falling into a trap of even thinking this is close to regular playoffs. Its nothing of the sort. The only odds is you have wishful thinking we will lose the series. Thats fine, but its not better odds. Nor does it change that all 8 losing teams have the EXACT same odds for the actual lotto.

What if a team tanks it, or doesn't have some of their better players show up for the playins, do they then become the favourites? What about a young kid steps in and plays lights out(see poehlings game against the leafs) Way too many variables to just pretend like some of the other teams that fell from 17-24 weren't just as crap as habs. You aren't even playing the BEST team, you are playing the highest seeded 9-16 team. And maybe not even because of conference differences.

So go ahead and name call, it still doesn't make you right. Just juvenile.

You're arguing for the sake of arguing.

Saying we dont have better odds because even if we lose 7 other teams do too completely overlooks the fact that Habs are the most likely of 16 teams to lose the play-in. Hence - best overall odds at Lafreniere than any team in the NHL today

Its ridiculously simple and straightforward.

If you disagree - name me a team in the NHL with better odds at Lafreniere than us. If you don't reply with one ill take it as your acknowledgement that you agree im right - same way i took Omar's lack of reply as agreement as well.
 

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