Playoff Series Comebacks Increase?

[WingsFan95]

Teams have roughly a 10% chance of coming back down 1-3 in a playoff series, let alone 0-3.

However of the 27 times it has happened, 21 have occurred since 1990. Of course the initial thought is more rounds, but the playoff format has seen 7 series beginning in 1968. Yet there was only one comeback down 1-3 or worse, the 75 Islanders coming back 0-3 (and of course forcing a game 7 in the next series again down 0-3).

In 1987, the current format as we know it came into effect and we had two 1-3 comebacks that year. Then one every following season until 92 when we saw two such comebacks. There were no comebacks in 93, 96 or 97.

Since 2003 however, we've seen 11 comebacks, including two 0-3 comebacks and an additional two series where a team came back from 0-3 to force a game seven. To say comebacks have not become more prominent would be to go against the facts.

My theory is with the lower goal scoring leading to higher luck factor in victories and the cap closing margins between teams. Any other thoughts?

It's not just completed comebacks, but series being pro-longed. Typically a team down 0-3 might win a game if playing at home, but would usually lose in Game 5. Now teams are more likely to at least force Game 6 (Cup Final a few years ago with the Devils for example). While a 3-1 series lead has lost a lot of luster.

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[Kyle McMahon]

Yeah it's crazy that even a 3-0 lead doesn't feel all that safe anymore.

I'd have to think the very thin margins between most of the teams are the reason. Seldom more than a dozen points separating playoff combatants these days. Games are practically a coin flip a lot of the time. Also seems that home ice is less advantageous now than it was in bygone eras. Usually the team up 3-1 is the favored team and will get two chances to close the series at home. If home ice isn't as important as previously, this is now less of an advantage.

It is nonetheless strange to me that nobody blew a single 3-1 lead between 1942 and 1987 besides the 3-0 lead you mentioned in 1975. I'd estimate there has to have been at least 50 such leads over the course of those 45 seasons, with just a single one squandered. Strange.

 

[Big Phil]

I heard last night on Rogers that 180 teams have had a 3-0 series lead with only 4 coming back. That's still 2% we're talking about. I will agree, that prolonging a series has gone up in recent years (teams seem to stretch it to 6 games more often) and I think that has a lot to do with more parity.

However, everyone thinks THEIR team will be the one that comes back from 3-0 and 98% of the time they aren't. So in reality, the 3-0 leads aren't being blown at any more frequency than before, we've just had two in recent years and then none until 35 years before.

I also think that maybe the biggest reason might be the new arenas. Home ice was pretty special at one time, and I guess it still is, but the Montreal Canadiens didn't squander a 3-1 lead when they played at the Forum for a reason. The Bruins didn't blow a 3-1 series lead, or 3-0, until well after they were gone from the Garden.

But maybe the biggest reason is the money the players make. This isn't to say they don't care about the Cup. However, the playoff bonus money actually meant something to players prior to the 1990s. This is when the 3-1 comebacks exploded in frequency. Before that you had none up until 1987 (other than the two 3-0 comebacks). That is just too hard of a stat to ignore without figuring there is some sort of reason behind it.

 

[WingsFan95]

Since the lost season and the implementation of a cap, we've seen:

Two teams come back down 0-3
Two teams force Game 7 after being down 0-3


And I can't remember the exact number of teams that were down 0-3 and forced a Game 6 but we've had two so far these playoffs, the Devils in the Cup Final a few seasons ago and the Stars against the Wings in the Conference Final a number back.

It's definitely a combination of overall pay, smaller margin of talent, lower goal scoring leading to higher luck factor AND media scrutiny for a team up 3-0 that doesn't close it out in a sweep.