Playoff Race Thread

[The Apologist]

Basically we have to go 20-13 (approx .600 hockey)...Freddy needs to get his confidence back and they have to,magically, play better in their own end especially in what is now called the home plate area...Too much standing around when a little effort in tying up opponents that are a few feet away from you can 'surprising' help in cutting the goals against down. I don't get the multitude of goals scored on this team when we have players so close to the goal scorer. It's a mindset they need to discover...somehow. They seem to be collapsing more in front of Freddy. If you are going to do this you better block a hell of a lot of shots and battle for pucks in the high danger areas.

As mentioned in the past, .600 hockey is not unheard for this team.
Still lots of season to go and there is a whole cluster of us lumped in the same pile right now.
There is 5 pts between 2-4 in our division.
There is 5 pts between WC1 and 11th in the conference.

We could literally be in second place in the division at the end of any given week or just as easily be where were are now in 11th.
I agree that we need to see more effort in front from these guys.
We need to figure out what the hell is going on with Freddie and play Hutch more until we do. Honestly, the last two weeks can we really say playing Hutch would have hurt us more?
We also need someone to step the eff up and call out the NHL. The consistency is terrible. The amount of things that go uncalled only to see a slight tug result in an immediate arm spasm by the ref is disgusting. Call the game right. There is no way a team as fast as this one should be near the bottom of the NHL in penalties drawn.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I tried to predict the outcomes of playoff series a couple of years ago just by by picking the team with the lowest GA during the season. Got 10 out of 13.

Not sure how much "newer" the NHL is in the past couple of years.

Over the past 2 years, there have been 30 playoff rounds.

In 53.33% of them, the team with the worse GA won.

 

[IPS]

Care to cite an example of a bottom-5 GA team winning anything of consequence in this "new NHL" you speak of?

IIRC Pittsburgh was around a middle of the pack team defensively (essentially we're the same caliber as they were defensively) but won the majority of their games with their league-best offense.

If we're going to accomplish anything, it's going to be the same way they did it (and we actually have a very similar roster to the 2015-2017 Penguins). We just need Freddy to match how good Murray was - which he has before.

A lot of fake news up in here from certain posters about how an offense-first team can't win a cup.

 

[egd27]

Over the past 2 years, there have been 30 playoff rounds.

In 53.33% of them, the team with the worse GA won.

Guess it was longer ago than I thought. Ok GA is no longer a big deal....thank goodness.

Since you have all those stats handy, of those 30 rounds, how many were won by a team with a GA in the bottom half of the league?

 

[Bomber0104]

IIRC Pittsburgh was around a middle of the pack team defensively (essentially we're the same caliber as they were defensively) but won the majority of their games with their league-best offense.

If we're going to accomplish anything, it's going to be the same way they did it (and we actually have a very similar roster to the 2015-2017 Penguins). We just need Freddy to match how good Murray was - which he has before.

A lot of fake news up in here from certain posters about how an offense-first team can't win a cup.

No one's saying they can't win a Cup. Rather, a team that's in the top 5-10 in goals-against (regular season) hasn't won a Cup thus far in the New NHL™

And there's probably a reason for that.

The Leafs are going to have to figure out how to tighten up defensively and also decide whether it's rest or rhythm that's needed for Freddy to get back on track. Otherwise, it's another wasted season.

Great offence though..

 

[Dekes For Days]

Ok GA is no longer a big deal....thank goodness.

It never was the huge deal you're making it out to be. GA still matters, but it matters just as much as GF. What matters is the combination, not how good you are at one or the other.

Since you have all those stats handy, of those 30 rounds, how many were won by a team with a GA in the bottom half of the league?

Not really interested in doing that work if you just shift the goalposts whenever you're proven wrong, but Washington was in the bottom half of the league and won the cup. Same with Pittsburgh the year before.

 

[egd27]

It never was the huge deal you're making it out to be. GA still matters, but it matters just as much as GF. What matters is the combination, not how good you are at one or the other.


Not really interested in doing that work if you just shift the goalposts whenever you're proven wrong, but Washington was in the bottom half of the league and won the cup. Same with Pittsburgh the year before.

Ok thanks

Edit......think you're incorrect about Washington.....but it would be splitting hairs as it was close enough

 

[Weltschmerz]

As long as we win 5-6 more games than we lose in regulation (along with 3-4 loser points), we're comfortably in a playoff spot.

Toronto Maple Leafs Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

That link has them with 95 (5 more wins) or 96 points (6) at the end of the season, not sure how that is comfortably in when the habs missed last year with 96.

 

[The Apologist]

That link has them with 95 (5 more wins) or 96 points (6) at the end of the season, not sure how that is comfortably in when the habs missed last year with 96.

Probably has something to do with the huge lump of teams right around us trending right around the same.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Just continue the pace they have been on with Keefe and they are good to go.

Agreed.

Here's how the season has gone from a statistical standpoint:


It's pretty clear where things have gone wrong there.

Yup, goaltending needs to improve the most and I have complete faith that Andersen will return to normal after this break is done.

Basically we have to go 20-13 (approx .600 hockey)...Freddy needs to get his confidence back and they have to,magically, play better in their own end especially in what is now called the home plate area...Too much standing around when a little effort in tying up opponents that are a few feet away from you can 'surprising' help in cutting the goals against down. I don't get the multitude of goals scored on this team when we have players so close to the goal scorer. It's a mindset they need to discover...somehow. They seem to be collapsing more in front of Freddy. If you are going to do this you better block a hell of a lot of shots and battle for pucks in the high danger areas.

We're .673 since Keefe was hired, so we'll be fine. Underlying stats are indicated that it's just a slump in goaltending right now (Andersen should return to normal soon, and it certainly helps that our best defensive defenseman is coming back i.e Muzzin). It's only an issue if somehow the rest of the East teams goes on a crazy run, but very unlikely.

 

[justafan22]

They play Florida 3 more times this year. Win 2 of those 3 and they're fine.

 

[LeafsNation75]

They play Florida 3 more times this year. Win 2 of those 3 and they're fine.

I like to see them win the remaining three games against them. Now for whatever reason they have not won in the Panthers arena since December 2016, so if they do only get 2/3 wins at least they play them in Toronto two more times.

 

[Hugh Jass]

The team didn't get "curb stomped" by any of those teams. Only Andersen did.

No way, not one leaf showed up for that game. Not one that I can remember.

 

[Mess]

Leafs playoff odds of making the playoffs sits at 64% as of today.

 

[Marshy]

Leafs playoffs start tonight. The good news is should they make it, they could be this year's Blue Jackets. A team that is chugging along in playoff mode catching a team that can't quite ramp it up to their level in time to get a stranglehold on the series.

 

[TakeTheBody]

Does anyone think the Leafs can win the Cup this season? I don't think they ( we) can. Too much inconsistency. They are still very immature although quite talented. I think missing the playoffs would be a perfect blow to that immature part of them and hopefully bring the focus that's needed next season. Also in a very deep first round draft we can hopefully be in the top 10 and draft a person that will end up eventually playing for us very cheap. With our top heavy salary cap situation this is much needed. In the big picture I think missing the playoffs is the best thing for this team.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Does anyone think the Leafs can win the Cup this season?

Absolutely.

 

[ACC1224]

Does anyone think the Leafs can win the Cup this season? I don't think they ( we) can. Too much inconsistency. They are still very immature although quite talented. I think missing the playoffs would be a perfect blow to that immature part of them and hopefully bring the focus that's needed next season. Also in a very deep first round draft we can hopefully be in the top 10 and draft a person that will end up eventually playing for us very cheap. With our top heavy salary cap situation this is much needed. In the big picture I think missing the playoffs is the best thing for this team.

They do seem a ways away still.
Hard to know if missing will be the best thing for them.
If/when they miss, we can always use that as the upside.

 

[Fatass]

They do seem a ways away still.
Hard to know if missing will be the best thing for them.
If/when they miss, we can always use that as the upside.

How long is the window for winning open? Need to make it in each season during AM’s contract. Not a lot of good prospects coming up to replace guys who will be leaving (age reasons or cost)

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Does anyone think the Leafs can win the Cup this season? I don't think they ( we) can. Too much inconsistency. They are still very immature although quite talented. I think missing the playoffs would be a perfect blow to that immature part of them and hopefully bring the focus that's needed next season. Also in a very deep first round draft we can hopefully be in the top 10 and draft a person that will end up eventually playing for us very cheap. With our top heavy salary cap situation this is much needed. In the big picture I think missing the playoffs is the best thing for this team.

We have our top guys contracted for this year and next year. I can't see us not going for it this year. And we are not that far off. And the league with CAP is very tight. Lets see what Dubie can do to improve the team in next month. I'd expect at minimum we get a new backup because if Freddy goes down near or in playoffs we can't be stuck with hutch. and we need to account for a couple more injuries on D as things get tougher now. So I think you will see 2 more defenders added while giving up wingers/prospects.

 

[ACC1224]

How long is the window for winning open? Need to make it in each season during AM’s contract. Not a lot of good prospects coming up to replace guys who will be leaving (age reasons or cost)

Hopefully the window will always be open.
They haven't been that great at managing the cap so far so it could end up closing sooner than we'd like.

 

[Sypher04]

Our slide lately has directly coincided with Muzzin's injury, and then Rielly on top of that. Yes, teams deal with injuries, and hell even we have, but the problem is that Muzzin brings a lacking element to our defensive group, so he's not a guy we can effectively replace if he's out. Sandin can, to a point, play the game Rielly plays, as can Barrie, so that is a loss we are more positioned to weather. Getting Muzzin back is huge and I wouldn't be shocked if we get right back on a roll.

 

[Fatass]

Hopefully the window will always be open.
They haven't been that great at managing the cap so far so it could end up closing sooner than we'd like.

Core players are without question great. Support guys are pretty good too, but those guys age out earn contracts that cost too much. They need to be replaced with cheaper ELC contracts. Trading away top draft picks limits the chances of drafting these needed young guys coming in on ELCs who actually can fill those support roles. UFA’s, are just too expensive for the good ones.
I just wish Dubas would have kept Marleau (and the first) for this season. I think the window for winning would stay open longer.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Core players are without question great. Support guys are pretty good too, but those guys age out earn contracts that cost too much. They need to be replaced with cheaper ELC contracts. Trading away top draft picks limits the chances of drafting these needed young guys coming in on ELCs who actually can fill those support roles. UFA’s, are just too expensive for the good ones.
I just wish Dubas would have kept Marleau (and the first) for this season. I think the window for winning would stay open longer.

I can't see how keeping Marleau would have helped. He wants to play everyday and get the iron man streak. That is his objective. He would have taken a spot on our 4th line LW so kids had no chance to make team and his CAP hit would have stopped us from signing Mitch.
and he can't do it every night. maybe at best he can play a game take a game or two off to rest up and give er another game. He would never have agreed which is why he was traded. and his wife and kids apparently did not like it here. Although I have serious suspicions all that seemed to occur in his 2nd year when father time passed him by.

 

[ACC1224]

Core players are without question great. Support guys are pretty good too, but those guys age out earn contracts that cost too much. They need to be replaced with cheaper ELC contracts. Trading away top draft picks limits the chances of drafting these needed young guys coming in on ELCs who actually can fill those support roles. UFA’s, are just too expensive for the good ones.
I just wish Dubas would have kept Marleau (and the first) for this season. I think the window for winning would stay open longer.

Don't agree about keeping Marleau but it certainly could have been handled better.

 

[ACC1224]

I can't see how keeping Marleau would have helped. He wants to play everyday and get the iron man streak. That is his objective. He would have taken a spot on our 4th line LW so kids had no chance to make team and his CAP hit would have stopped us from signing Mitch.
and he can't do it every night. maybe at best he can play a game take a game or two off to rest up and give er another game. He would never have agreed which is why he was traded. and his wife and kids apparently did not like it here. Although I have serious suspicions all that seemed to occur in his 2nd year when father time passed him by.

Funny how that worked.