Playoff Race/Standings

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DFC

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Sep 26, 2013
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Boston got a much-needed loss tonight, thanks to the red hot CBJ. So we're now 3 points back with 2 games in hand.

Next up for the Bs:

@ Buffalo -- W
vs. Buffalo -- W
@ NJ -- L
vs. Edmonton -- L
@ FLA -- W

It's worth noting that Boston is one of those rare teams that's significantly better on the road than at home, not only so far this year but all of last year too. So they're probably poised to win some games.

Next up for us:

vs. MTL -- W
vs. TOR -- OTL
vs. CAR -- W
vs. WPG -- L
vs. NSH -- L

IMO, our playoffs begin now.
 
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garmonbozia

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Jan 10, 2006
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Not because I don't think we can...just because it's too damn early to be calling this our playoffs.
 

DFC

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Not because I don't think we can...just because it's too damn early to be calling this our playoffs.


While I agree... if we have a poor homestand here, we're going to be in awfully tough to turn it around afterward. This is the spot where we're supposed to turn it around though. Our opportunity is exactly here. I don't think we're in as terrible shape as it might first appear when looking at the standings, but if we squander home games, given our history of racking up points at home and then giving them away on the road, the odds are suddenly really stacked against us.

So going 1-4 here could be absolutely disastrous. 3-2 and we're still in fighting shape.
 

DFC

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One point back of Boston with a game in hand.

Huge win tonight vs. Montreal.

Toronto got a shootout win vs. Florida tonight (the Leafs gave up 47! shots), putting them just two points behind us with two games in hand. So, I can't believe I'm gonna say this, but tomorrow night's game against the Leafs is huge. And we're both coming off back-to-backs.

Who do we start?
 

FDfranklin

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Jan 21, 2013
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One point back of Boston with a game in hand.

Huge win tonight vs. Montreal.

Toronto got a shootout win vs. Florida tonight (the Leafs gave up 47! shots), putting them just two points behind us with two games in hand. So, I can't believe I'm gonna say this, but tomorrow night's game against the Leafs is huge. And we're both coming off back-to-backs.

Who do we start?

Vasi
 

These Are The Days

Oh no! We suck again!!
May 17, 2014
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I think it's the right decision to start him. Plus the Lightning have precious little time to figure out if it's REALLY worth losing Bishop or not. These games are all we have. And these games that Vasilevskiy starts are going to be the final litmus test our organization has. Whether or not these starts for Vasilevskiy are made under duress and extreme circumstances is irrelevant. Bishop almost singlehandedly carried us most from November to January when our offense could hardly be trusted to score even twice on some nights. You want duress and extreme circumstances? Try leading THAT team to a playoff spot. They were more healthy than this year and played far worse.

Compared to what Bishop had to go through last year, Vasy has it easier right now and I fully expect him to take his lumps for a while, make us question his talent and then suddenly pull it together and play so well that it leaves us without an accurate answer of who is really better.
 

DFC

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We're now two back of Boston with a game at hand, but the Leafs are creeping up on us, and have two games at hand.

3. Boston ------> 38 GP; 40 PTS
4. Tampa Bay -> 37 GP; 39 PTS
5. Toronto -----> 35 GP; 38 PTS
 

PRZ45MD

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Aug 11, 2016
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Break the year up into Eight 10 game segments + 2 leftover games.

Team needs to get 12 points in each segment to hit 96 points. Segment 3 they went off the rails. Segments 1 and 2 saw the team net 12 and 13 points respectively.

Segment 3 yielded only 7 points. They have a 4 point deficit to make up at this point.

Segment 4 they have 8 points thus far with 6 more on the table in Carolina, Winnipeg and Nashville games. They have to get 4 of 6 points to hit the 12 points in 10 games for the segment, but they still have that 4 point deficit from ******** the bed in Segment 3. No back to backs in those three games, no travel, just New Year's Eve and the hangovers to deal with. If they manage to win all 3 games(not likely given the inconsistency), they'll have earned 14 points in the segment(a best for the season thus far) and paid down their "debt" by 2 points.

It's possible, though not likely, they'll be only 2 points behind playoff pace by 1/5/2017. They're going to need a couple 14-15 point segments to catch up. I think.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HO2n1WV0E5b3Zc1TG-QKweQGqXs7jUW5_QW5k-A_KAQ/edit?usp=sharing
 

PRZ45MD

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Yes, Toronto is overtime better than a Lightning team missing Bishop, Stamkos, Namestnikov, Callahan, Paquette, and Point.

We'll have none of this factual data impacting my narrative! TOR > TBL in coaching and talent period!
 

Kramerica Industries

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Mar 21, 2013
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Yes, Toronto is overtime better than a Lightning team missing Bishop, Stamkos, Namestnikov, Callahan, Paquette, and Point.

Their possession metrics are better, their coaching is insurmountably better...frankly, the only thing keeping them close is the number of points TB has rescued from 2+ goal deficits compared to the number of points Toronto has lost from 2+ goal lead situations. Toronto's actual play is above their point total.

Toronto is 15-14-6 this year in terms of ROW's, ROL's, and shootout decisions (which I consider ties for all intents and purposes). Tampa Bay is 16-17-4. I dunno man, you tell me which is the better record.

Toronto is not better than a healthy Tampa Bay at this time. Maybe a year or two down the road but not right now.

Having an actual goalie, one of the NHL's best coaches, and adding a #1 overall draft pick while the Lightning continue on with Jon Cooper sure does a lot to narrow the gap, at worst.
 

Werewolf

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Oct 29, 2013
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Healthy lineup we beat them 7 - 3. We lose to them in overtime with 6 starters missing and all of a sudden they are better than us. People have lost their mind.
 

Hoek

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Healthy lineup we beat them 7 - 3. We lose to them in overtime with 6 starters missing and all of a sudden they are better than us. People have lost their mind.

LOL yep. Though definitely the Leafs looked much better last night. Much more structured instead of all run and gun. They'll be good sooner than later.
 

xteesy

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Jun 19, 2014
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Healthy lineup we beat them 7 - 3. We lose to them in overtime with 6 starters missing and all of a sudden they are better than us. People have lost their mind.

Of course they have.

Half the people on here only started posting when we got good (Yep, that includes me).

I've been a diehard (got into hockey during our cup run in 03 and have loved the team ever since) who didn't know the site existed, and while I'm sure some are the same like me, most aren't.

Apparently it makes more sense to blame the coach who's helped get us to the ECF and Cup finals for the last two years than it is to maybe... JUST MAYBE... blame the fact that we're missing 6 mother f*#&ing starters.

Oh and did I mention the guys who are 'healthy' aren't actually 100%?

I'll go ahead and nip the next comment in the butt...

"No hockey team has 100% healthy players"

Yea, well no hockey team has had multiple star players on IR/DTD for weeks on end only to come back for a game or two and then go back on DTD and miss 2-3.

I'm not giving excuses. I'm giving facts.

We're beat up. Our coach is doing the best he can to meld together a star team (without actually having the stars available), and we're probably having the roughest year we've had since 2010.

It sucks. The boys will get healthy and we'll either make the playoffs or we won't.

At the end of the day, we're fine.


/endrant - carry on fellow HFboarders


Edit: I will also add for the other guys on here who talk about how we do need to make changes. I'm do agree with you on a large majority of points, I just feel we have to wait till we're healthy. This post is mainly for the people who just b!#*$ all damn day about how we're doing bad yet don't know a damn thing about hockey.
 

MattM92

Registered User
Dec 8, 2010
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Of course they have.

Half the people on here only started posting when we got good (Yep, that includes me).

I've been a diehard (got into hockey during our cup run in 03 and have loved the team ever since) who didn't know the site existed, and while I'm sure some are the same like me, most aren't.

Apparently it makes more sense to blame the coach who's helped get us to the ECF and Cup finals for the last two years than it is to maybe... JUST MAYBE... blame the fact that we're missing 6 mother f*#&ing starters.

Oh and did I mention the guys who are 'healthy' aren't actually 100%?

I'll go ahead and nip the next comment in the butt...

"No hockey team has 100% healthy players"

Yea, well no hockey team has had multiple star players on IR/DTD for weeks on end only to come back for a game or two and then go back on DTD and miss 2-3.

I'm not giving excuses. I'm giving facts.

We're beat up. Our coach is doing the best he can to meld together a star team (without actually having the stars available), and we're probably having the roughest year we've had since 2010.

It sucks. The boys will get healthy and we'll either make the playoffs or we won't.

At the end of the day, we're fine.


/endrant - carry on fellow HFboarders


Edit: I will also add for the other guys on here who talk about how we do need to make changes. I'm do agree with you on a large majority of points, I just feel we have to wait till we're healthy. This post is mainly for the people who just b!#*$ all damn day about how we're doing bad yet don't know a damn thing about hockey.

For the last time:

We were not a good hockey team BEFORE the injuries started. Even before Stamkos went down we were a negative possession team. Stop blaming everything on injuries because we were mediocre when healthy.
 

JedYzerman

Registered User
Jan 8, 2011
339
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Cocoa Beach, FL
Why all the hate on Cooper. Yeah I get it he's not Babcock. But Coop has done really well with this club and I think deserves a little bit of credit. Last year the bolts made it to the game 7 of the ECF with a broken team most of the year. The year before that the club made it to the big show. The year before that we still made it to the playoffs but got swept by Montreal. So if you look at all of Cooper's (full) years with the Lightning he's done a pretty amazing job.
 

Hoek

Legendary Poster A
May 12, 2003
11,382
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Tampa, FL
I've been following the team since '95 so I've been through some real **** years. This ain't nothing. We're spoiled.

I do agree it's not all injuries, though. Just like it's not all Cooper. Plenty of fingers to point. It's really hard to evaluate with so many variables going on at once.
 
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These Are The Days

Oh no! We suck again!!
May 17, 2014
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I'm not worried at all. Bishop was letting in goals by the gallon at the start of the year and if we can get something better than that out of Vasilevskiy we shouldn't have too much trouble making up ground and winning some games.
 
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