Playoff Push Thread

[b1e9a8r5s]

I think if you look at it, the % makes sense. For the sake of argument, lets assume that all of the teams in the top 3 positions are in. I think that site has them all above 95%. That leaves 200% (2 spots) to be spread around the remaining teams. Even if you want to just "eyeball" it or go off feel, I don't know how you can say the Hawks, at this moment in time, could have anything more than 15-20% chance.

Dal 6 pts ahead with game in hand
Min 3 pts ahead
Van 2 pts ahead, Hawk have game in hand
Avs Tied with game in hand
Ariz Tied with a game in hand
Hawks
Ducks 2 pts behind

How would you allocate the 200% among those teams and end up with having more than about 15%?

 

[BobbyJet]

I think if you look at it, the % makes sense. For the sake of argument, lets assume that all of the teams in the top 3 positions are in. I think that site has them all above 95%. That leaves 200% (2 spots) to be spread around the remaining teams. Even if you want to just "eyeball" it or go off feel, I don't know how you can say the Hawks, at this moment in time, could have anything more than 15-20% chance.

Dal 6 pts ahead with game in hand
Min 3 pts ahead
Van 2 pts ahead, Hawk have game in hand
Avs Tied with game in hand
Ariz Tied with a game in hand
Hawks
Ducks 2 pts behind

How would you allocate the 200% among those teams and end up with having more than about 15%?

So in other words, the schedule, hot goaltending, momentum, injuries, winning streaks and trends etc. don't really come into play. Then that number would make more sense.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

So in other words, the schedule, momentum, injuries, winning streaks and trends etc. don't really come into play. Then that number would make more sense.

I won't pretend to know the exact details of the that go into each model, and you will see different numbers on different sites but they are all in the 10-15% range right now. I'd imagine they use goal differential or something similar to inform the expectation of how many games each team will win going forward and use the actual schedules. They likely weigh recent results more heavily than old ones to account for trends somewhat. But the models probably are going to have a harder time reflecting the injury of Koviu or something like that.

 

[magnificent]

So is it time to call up Jokiharju?
If they want to make the playoffs, no reason to keep him in AHL. Just a point from the playoffs for a team that has one of the best offense and the worst defense in the league. The best players should play.

 

[SnakePlissken]

Ducks at Wild tonight. If Wild lose this one they should just withdraw themselves from playoff consideration.

 

[DontToewzMeBro]

The thing that “statistics” leave out is the “4 point games”

Yes the hawks may have a game in hand vs some teams but they also play some (col) 2-3 times. Those are big games and to me, makes these playoff stats somewhat irrelevant.

A veteran group of Toews/Kane/Keith/ and many winnable 4 pt games brings the hawks to about 40% IMO

 

[FMichael]

From an outsiders perspective - those black 3rd jersey/Winter Classic jersey are starting to grow on me...Should they wear them for the remainder of their home games for a playoff push?

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

The thing that “statistics” leave out is the “4 point games”

Yes the hawks may have a game in hand vs some teams but they also play some (col) 2-3 times. Those are big games and to me, makes these playoff stats somewhat irrelevant.

A veteran group of Toews/Kane/Keith/ and many winnable 4 pt games brings the hawks to about 40% IMO

If/when the the Hawks win those 4 point games, you will see the %s change a lot.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

I was looking at the offensive parallels between the Hawks and last year's Capitals team, and it's kind of amazing.

Both teams heavily relied/rely on four main forwards for 5v5 and PP scoring. Both teams split those four forwards into two top scoring units. Both teams had one main defenseman driving the powerplay, but that defenseman didn't eat the most 5v5 minutes.

	2018 Capitals	2019 Hawks
#1 Forward	Ovechkin 1.06 PPG	Kane 1.53 PPG
#2 Forward	Kuznetzov 1.05 PPG	Toews 1.00 PPG
#3 Forward	Backstrom 0.88 PPG	DeBrincat 1.00 PPG
#4 Forward	Oshie 0.64 PPG	Strome 0.97 PPG
PP defenseman	Carlson 0.83 PPG	Gustafsson 0.67 PPG
Supporting defensemen	Niskanen 0.43 Orlov 0.38	Keith 0.45 Seabrook 0.40
Supporting forwards	Vrana 0.62 Wilson 0.45 Eller 0.45	Saad 0.62 Kahun 0.50 Anisimov 0.48

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not saying the Hawks will finish this season like the Capitals did last season, but it sure does look like the Hawks have some offensive similarities to last season's Stanley Cup winner.

Also, I'd say the PPG differences between Oshie/Strome and Carlson/Gustafsson about offset each other. Any remaining difference is made up for by Kane's production over Ovechkin's.

 

[Rolo]

I would like to see Perlini for Johansson. Would help the playoff push, and adds a guy we can keep for next year (I'd sign him to a 1 yr deal at 4M).

 

[BobbyJet]

I was looking at the offensive parallels between the Hawks and last year's Capitals team, and it's kind of amazing.

Both teams heavily relied/rely on four main forwards for 5v5 and PP scoring. Both teams split those four forwards into two top scoring units. Both teams had one main defenseman driving the powerplay, but that defenseman didn't eat the most 5v5 minutes.

	2018 Capitals	2019 Hawks
#1 Forward	Ovechkin 1.06 PPG	Kane 1.53 PPG
#2 Forward	Kuznetzov 1.05 PPG	Toews 1.00 PPG
#3 Forward	Backstrom 0.88 PPG	DeBrincat 1.00 PPG
#4 Forward	Oshie 0.64 PPG	Strome 0.97 PPG
PP defenseman	Carlson 0.83 PPG	Gustafsson 0.67 PPG
Supporting defensemen	Niskanen 0.43 Orlov 0.38	Keith 0.45 Seabrook 0.40
Supporting forwards	Vrana 0.62 Wilson 0.45 Eller 0.45	Saad 0.62 Kahun 0.50 Anisimov 0.48

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not saying the Hawks will finish this season like the Capitals did last season, but it sure does look like the Hawks have some offensive similarities to last season's Stanley Cup winner.

Also, I'd say the PPG differences between Oshie/Strome and Carlson/Gustafsson about offset each other. Any remaining difference is made up for by Kane's production over Ovechkin's.

And then you woke up from that nice dream. LOL

 

[Cowch]

I was looking at the offensive parallels between the Hawks and last year's Capitals team, and it's kind of amazing.

Both teams heavily relied/rely on four main forwards for 5v5 and PP scoring. Both teams split those four forwards into two top scoring units. Both teams had one main defenseman driving the powerplay, but that defenseman didn't eat the most 5v5 minutes.

	2018 Capitals	2019 Hawks
#1 Forward	Ovechkin 1.06 PPG	Kane 1.53 PPG
#2 Forward	Kuznetzov 1.05 PPG	Toews 1.00 PPG
#3 Forward	Backstrom 0.88 PPG	DeBrincat 1.00 PPG
#4 Forward	Oshie 0.64 PPG	Strome 0.97 PPG
PP defenseman	Carlson 0.83 PPG	Gustafsson 0.67 PPG
Supporting defensemen	Niskanen 0.43 Orlov 0.38	Keith 0.45 Seabrook 0.40
Supporting forwards	Vrana 0.62 Wilson 0.45 Eller 0.45	Saad 0.62 Kahun 0.50 Anisimov 0.48

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not saying the Hawks will finish this season like the Capitals did last season, but it sure does look like the Hawks have some offensive similarities to last season's Stanley Cup winner.

Also, I'd say the PPG differences between Oshie/Strome and Carlson/Gustafsson about offset each other. Any remaining difference is made up for by Kane's production over Ovechkin's.

Comparisons like this further frustrate me with how bad the D and goal-keeping has been. This Blackhawks offense has been ridiculously good for a while (they're averaging 5 goals a game over the last month!), just imagine if they had a half-way decent defense.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

And then you woke up from that nice dream. LOL

It’s not a dream. Clearly said I’m not saying the Hawks will do what the Caps did, but the stats show the Hawks have the offensive infrastructure in place to be a contender. They have other holes that are easier to fill than top-end offense.

I think they will fill those holes over the offseason.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Comparisons like this further frustrate me with how bad the D and goal-keeping has been. This Blackhawks offense has been ridiculously good for a while (they're averaging 5 goals a game over the last month!), just imagine if they had a half-way decent defense.

Yep, this is why I get frustrated when people keep suggesting Panarin at $10-11 million as a solution to the problems.

This offense is just as good, if not better, than the 17-18 Stanley Cup champion offense.

The holes are elsewhere.

 

[Cowch]

Yep, this is why I get frustrated when people keep suggesting Panarin at $10-11 million as a solution to the problems.

This offense is just as good, if not better, than the 17-18 Stanley Cup champion offense.

The holes are elsewhere.

I know 2 is a lower number, but the team hasn't scored less than 2 goals since the middle of November which shows to me that the offense is not only good, but also consistent. I guess this is where the majority of my optimism and hope for some type of playoff run comes from. But it sure is hard to watch the team give up 3+ goals every night.

 

[Rolo]

Yep, this is why I get frustrated when people keep suggesting Panarin at $10-11 million as a solution to the problems.

This offense is just as good, if not better, than the 17-18 Stanley Cup champion offense.

The holes are elsewhere.

Kinda in a tough situation.

Keith & Seabrook are going no where. (Atleast Keith can be a solid 2nd pair D-man)
Jokiharju, Boqvist, Mitchell may not be ready to be big contributors for another 2-3 years.
Murphy, Gustafsson are solid 2nd pairing guys when they are on their game...

If we added a legit top pair LD and Matt Grzelcyk to carry Seabrook, I think our D would be a contender.

_____-Murphy
Keith-Jokiharju
Grzelcyk-Seabrook
Koekkoek/Dahlstrom/Forsling

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Kinda in a tough situation.

Keith & Seabrook are going no where. (Atleast Keith can be a solid 2nd pair D-man)
Jokiharju, Boqvist, Mitchell may not be ready to be big contributors for another 2-3 years.
Murphy, Gustafsson are solid 2nd pairing guys when they are on their game...

If we added a legit top pair LD and Matt Grzelcyk to carry Seabrook, I think our D would be a contender.

_____-Murphy
Keith-Jokiharju
Grzelcyk-Seabrook
Koekkoek/Dahlstrom/Forsling

I’m really bad at assessing defensemen on their defensive play, so I’ll defer to people who know what they’re talking about here.

How much worse defensively are Keith-Seabrook than Orlov-Niskanen?

How much worse defensively is Gustafsson than Carlson?

And how much worse/better is Murphy than Kempny?

 

[Blackhawks]

Yep, this is why I get frustrated when people keep suggesting Panarin at $10-11 million as a solution to the problems.

This offense is just as good, if not better, than the 17-18 Stanley Cup champion offense.

The holes are elsewhere.

Yes take out Saad and AA and insert Panarin instead, then get a top D, you gotta minus a few pieces. Ultimately Seabrook should be a monster out there for the Hawks but he is nothing more than a bottom pairing guy, some like to praise Bowman but he has one mistake (everyone agrees with this mistake but the apologetics like to down size it and give him a pass on it) on his books that is not going away and you can't just make it magically vanish, its gonna haunt the Hawks for years to come. Seabrook and Crow money should be spent on D not what Panarin or Strome/Cat are gonna get.

 

[hawksfan50]

It is not only the dmen...our forwards do not play good defending checking ...The question is:


What are the Blackhawks defensively?


1. A team that wants no part of the hustle effort and physical compete that checking opponents who have the puck in the neutral and defensive zones requires?

Or....


2.A team that has no structure the players have the ability to buy into either because they do not possess such abilities requireed (eg.Seabrook has trouble simply moving;Forsling gets muscled off pucks and is scared of contact,Keith sometimes just loses interest ...mind somewhere else ...His has no conception how to defend.....this many physical or mental issues limiting abilities) OR because checking is simply not fun..so why bother buying into the level required...in other words because they honestly BELIEVE they are no god at checking so why bother?


Whatever the case..
The result is we are very very bad at defending our zone and limiting the high danger chances on our goalies..

 

[Rolo]

I’m really bad at assessing defensemen on their defensive play, so I’ll defer to people who know what they’re talking about here.

How much worse defensively are Keith-Seabrook than Orlov-Niskanen?

How much worse defensively is Gustafsson than Carlson?

And how much worse/better is Murphy than Kempny?

Orlov-Niskanen is probably one of the best shutdown pairs in the league.
Carlson is a top 15 defenseman.
Kempny/Murphy is a wash, but Murphy doesn't have the luxury of playing with a Carlson.

 

[BK]

Yes take out Saad and AA and insert Panarin instead, then get a top D, you gotta minus a few pieces. Ultimately Seabrook should be a monster out there for the Hawks but he is nothing more than a bottom pairing guy, some like to praise Bowman but he has one mistake (everyone agrees with this mistake but the apologetics like to down size it and give him a pass on it) on his books that is not going away and you can't just make it magically vanish, its gonna haunt the Hawks for years to come. Seabrook and Crow money should be spent on D not what Panarin or Strome/Cat are gonna get.

No one downsizes the epic mistake that is the Seabrook deal. We all think it is brutal. It will not hurt “that bad” if we can buy it out with a compliance buyout plus we have time with elc deals.

I think we can keep Saad if we trade AA.

Personally I would sign Stone and part of me thinks EK65 would be an even better choice BUT I have doubts you can trust his health.

 

[BobbyJet]

Orlov-Niskanen is probably one of the best shutdown pairs in the league.
Carlson is a top 15 defenseman.
Kempny/Murphy is a wash, but Murphy doesn't have the luxury of playing with a Carlson.

Mostly agree with the above but the truth is trying to compare last season's SC champions with the current Blackhawks is rather ludicrous - the differences are vast to put it politely. To start with you can take how Wilson and Ovi annihilated ops with punishing physicality throughout the playoffs - the two large bodied wingers were a two-man wrecking crew who opened up gaping holes in ops defense by taking the body on the forecheck at every opportunity. The talent on Washington under the coaching of Trotz took it from there.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Mostly agree with the above but the truth is trying to compare last season's SC champions with the current Blackhawks is rather ludicrous - the differences are vast to put it politely. To start with you can take how Wilson and Ovi annihilated ops wingers with punishing physicality throughout the playoffs - the two large bodied wingers were a two-man wrecking crew who opened up gaping holes in ops defense by taking the body on the forecheck at every opportunity. The talent on Washington under the coaching of Trotz took it from there.

I didn’t mean to do a full top to bottom comparison of the two, I just wanted to point out the core of offensive production is similar in an attempt to “prove” it’s something else that’s missing.

As you mentioned, the Hawks don’t have anything close to a Wilson that can complement guy in our top-six.

I’d go as far as saying we should add two highly-physical guys who can complement the top-six lines, while adding more phyiscality and defensive responsibility in the bottom-six. I think that’s more important than going after Panarin.

Guys like Ferland, Boone Jenner, Josh Anderson, and Brandon Tanev would help. I also think Caggiula may be part of the solution in the bottom-six since he plays an anti-smurf game despite his size.

 

[Blackhawks]

No one downsizes the epic mistake that is the Seabrook deal. We all think it is brutal. It will not hurt “that bad” if we can buy it out with a compliance buyout plus we have time with elc deals.

I think we can keep Saad if we trade AA.

Personally I would sign Stone and part of me thinks EK65 would be an even better choice BUT I have doubts you can trust his health.

There is only one more year for Strome and Cat after the one we are in, not really that much time, once that hits this team is gonna have another cap hell scenario if Seabs is around or be really thin some where or another. You saying it will bot hurt that much makes no sense as it hurt last year, it hurt this year, it will hurt next year, and most likely the year after till the "compliance buyout" which is also not guaranteed and was only handed out last time because there was a reduction in cap, which means it will hurt for the duration of the contract which is catastrophic and you can say bye bye to any cups...

 

[jaysoneil]

Thread summary:

-Defense is bad
-Seabrooks contract is bad
-Team isn't playoff ready

Every thread turns into the same few things we've all discussed for nearly a year. Might as well combine all threads.

Only 1pt out of a WC spot. So there's that.