Playoff elimination (or miraculous entry) thread: The magic number is now 0

[Habs13]

Guys - great news. I just took a look at our schedule. Did so from a completely realistic, and even pessimistic viewpoint, but here's what I come up with:

Our next 4 games are super winnable.

Ottawa sucks. We always beat Vancouver. We're better than NYR. Carolina isn't for real.
Then after that - NY Islanders - they suck, so they're bound to come down to earth. Easy win.
Than it's Tampa. Considering how their record in 2020 is win 20 games in a row, lose 1, rinse repeat - we're probably right on schedule to hand them their 1 loss. Win too
Florida is floundering, so win.

So that's 7 wins in a row - would give us 78 points in 70 games. That'd be good enough to pass Florida, and maybe still be ~2-3 points back of Toronto.

Nashville next. They don't have PK anymore, so easy win too.
Buffalo/Anaheim/LA/SJ next. Those teams all suck - that's an easy 4 wins in a row.

So we're now at 88 points in 75 games played.

Colorado is a good team - hard to beat them. We have to be realistic in our expectations after all. So 4-3 OT loss, 1 point only.

Good news, we're back to sucky teams after. Buffalo, FLA, NYI and Chicago. 4 easy wins.

So after 80 games - we'd be sitting at 97 points.

Sticking to the realistic theme - we can't win every game - so we lose against Nashville, 3-0. Yes - despite no PK Subban, I know, crazy stuff.

So then it'll come down to the last game of the year, Montreal vs Toronto. We'd be 2 points ahead of them - but if they beat us in regulation they could still top us I think. Good thing it's the Leafs and they suck - Habs win 7-1.

And it's onto Boston in round 1 of the playoffs.

Just like Detroit sucks eh? 0-4. The Habs blow harder than all these teams.

 

[Edgy]

Guys - great news. I just took a look at our schedule. Did so from a completely realistic, and even pessimistic viewpoint, but here's what I come up with:

Realistic, not even remotely.
Optimistic, extremely to the point of delusion almost.

Everything else below is wishful thinking and if it were happen I would BBQ and eat my shoe.

Our next 4 games are super winnable.

Ottawa sucks. We always beat Vancouver. We're better than NYR. Carolina isn't for real.
Then after that - NY Islanders - they suck, so they're bound to come down to earth. Easy win.
Than it's Tampa. Considering how their record in 2020 is win 20 games in a row, lose 1, rinse repeat - we're probably right on schedule to hand them their 1 loss. Win too
Florida is floundering, so win.

So that's 7 wins in a row - would give us 78 points in 70 games. That'd be good enough to pass Florida, and maybe still be ~2-3 points back of Toronto.

Nashville next. They don't have PK anymore, so easy win too.
Buffalo/Anaheim/LA/SJ next. Those teams all suck - that's an easy 4 wins in a row.

So we're now at 88 points in 75 games played.

Colorado is a good team - hard to beat them. We have to be realistic in our expectations after all. So 4-3 OT loss, 1 point only.

Good news, we're back to sucky teams after. Buffalo, FLA, NYI and Chicago. 4 easy wins.

So after 80 games - we'd be sitting at 97 points.

Sticking to the realistic theme - we can't win every game - so we lose against Nashville, 3-0. Yes - despite no PK Subban, I know, crazy stuff.

So then it'll come down to the last game of the year, Montreal vs Toronto. We'd be 2 points ahead of them - but if they beat us in regulation they could still top us I think. Good thing it's the Leafs and they suck - Habs win 7-1.

And it's onto Boston in round 1 of the playoffs.

 

[26Mats]

With the Panthers and Leafs faltering, it looks more and more like it will take 97 points to get to the playoffs, rather than 98. In that case, the magic number is 3.

 

[the]

It’s between us and Florida at this point. No way the Leafs make it. We had some embarrassing losses but this was soul crushing for the Leafs.

 

[bobholly39]

With the Panthers and Leafs faltering, it looks more and more like it will take 97 points to get to the playoffs, rather than 98. In that case, the magic number is 3.

They're both pacing for around 93-94 points. You need to lower your standards.

Besides - we got this. Check out post #270 in this thread. A super realistic and sensible prediction of what's to come - Habs will finish at 99 points.

 

[26Mats]

They're both pacing for around 93-94 points. You need to lower your standards.

Besides - we got this. Check out post #270 in this thread. A super realistic and sensible prediction of what's to come - Habs will finish at 99 points.

Too hard for me to guess the exact number of points Florida and Toronto will get I prefer the bigger picture. But I will add scenarios to it.

If we lose 4.5 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 94 points.
If we lose 4 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 95 points.
If we lose 3.5 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 96 points.
If we lose 3 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 97 points.
If we lose 2.5 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 98 points.
If we lose 2 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 99 points.
If we lose 1.5 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 100 points.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

It’s between us and Florida at this point. No way the Leafs make it. We had some embarrassing losses but this was soul crushing for the Leafs.

Buffalo has a better chance than we do. Sabres hold games in hand. The "race" for 3rd place in the Atlantic has become a bit of a farce.

 

[the]

Buffalo has a better chance than we do. Sabres hold games in hand. The "race" for 3rd place in the Atlantic has become a bit of a farce.

Damn, I didn’t notice Buffalo...pretty ridiculous loll

 

[Gravity]

Stupid f***ing team. Win when they need to lose and lose when they need to win. Dumb shits from top to bottom.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Too hard for me to guess the exact number of points Florida and Toronto will get I prefer the bigger picture. But I will add scenarios to it.

If we lose 4.5 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 94 points.
If we lose 4 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 95 points.
If we lose 3.5 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 96 points.
If we lose 3 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 97 points.
If we lose 2.5 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 98 points.
If we lose 2 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 99 points.
If we lose 1.5 more games in our next 18, we can't get to 100 points.

He's right. Both Leafs & Florida current pace puts them at 94 pts max. I'd say magic number is 3.5.

 

[Gravity]

Ohh yeah 1.4% Montreal Canadiens Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats . Living the high life

 

[26Mats]

He's right. Both Leafs & Florida current pace puts them at 94 pts max. I'd say magic number is 3.5.

so you think we'll need 96 points, i.e. Florida and Toronto will get at most 95 points?

That means we need to pick up 30 more points (e.g. go 15-3-0).

 

[MarkovsKnee]

so you think we'll need 96 points, i.e. Florida and Toronto will get at most 95 points?

That means we need to pick up 30 more points (e.g. go 15-3-0).

If both Florida and Toronto get to 94 pts, Montreal would need 95 pts. They're at 66 pts right now, so 29 pts in 18 games. Go 14-4-0 last 18 and Montreal would be at 94 pts too, but would be out likely on tie breakers.

So worst Montreal can do is 15-3-1, which is 29 pts.

I don't see either Toronto or Florida increasing their pace at all. They've both been falling off it since the All Star break anyway.

 

[26Mats]

If both Florida and Toronto get to 94 pts, Montreal would need 95 pts. They're at 66 pts right now, so 29 pts in 18 games. Go 14-4-0 last 18 and Montreal would be at 94 pts too, but would be out likely on tie breakers.

So worst Montreal can do is 15-3-1, which is 29 pts.

I don't see either Toronto or Florida increasing their pace at all. They've both been falling off it since the All Star break anyway.

so if Montreal needs to go 15-3-1 to get in, that would mean the magic number is 4 for us to get eliminated...

It depends when Reilly comes back for Toronto - or what kind of trades they make at the deadline, especially involving tyson barrie...

I don't know what's going on with Florida. Goaltending?

 

[MarkovsKnee]

so if Montreal needs to go 15-3-1 to get in, that would mean the magic number is 4 for us to get eliminated...

It depends when Reilly comes back for Toronto - or what kind of trades they make at the deadline, especially involving tyson barrie...

I don't know what's going on with Florida. Goaltending?

Reilly & Ceci are expected back mid-March.

Florida's D is terrible. They don't have a lot of depth behind the Barkov line either.

 

[DXStriker]

Its actually insane that we had two 8 game losing streaks and just had a 5 game losing streak . We lost to the worst team in NHL history 4 times in a year

yet... 6 Pts back of the Mighty Maple Leafs (Who can't beat their own Zamboni Driver )

Does MB have some sort of blackmail on TOR and FLA to make them keep us close lol so it looks better when he blames injuries it lands better with the media lol

 

[26Mats]

Its actually insane that we had two 8 game losing streaks and just had a 5 game losing streak . We lost to the worst team in NHL history 4 times in a year

yet... 6 Pts back of the Mighty Maple Leafs (Who can't beat their own Zamboni Driver )

Does MB have some sort of blackmail on TOR and FLA to make them keep us close lol so it looks better when he blames injuries it lands better with the media lol

Really tough week coming up against 3 teams that are playing well: Vancouver, NYR, and Carolina.

Next week it's Tampa, NYI, and then Florida.

So 5 tough games, and then one against one of the three other teams we're still technically battling for the 3rd seed in the Atlantic.

 

[Per Sjoblom]

Realistic, not even remotely.
Optimistic, extremely to the point of delusion almost.

Everything else below is wishful thinking and if it were happen I would BBQ and eat my shoe.

 

[Per Sjoblom]

I don't know what's going on with Florida. Goaltending?

I thought that was what they paid 10 mil for? Or rather 70 mil in 7 years.

 

[LaP]

I wont lie it would be funny as **** to see the team makes the playoffs right after Danault has finally seen his TOI reduced by the coach. Man that would be something.

Centers TOI in the last 5 games :

Danault 16:46
Domi 15:46
Suzuki 15:16

Centers TOI in the last 2 years :

Danault 18:13
Domi 17:14
Kotkaniemi whatever TOI was left after Thompson was exhausted.

 

[Canadienna]

I wont lie it would be funny as **** to see the team makes the playoffs right after Danault has finally seen his TOI reduced by the coach. Man that would be something.

Centers TOI in the last 5 games :

Danault 16:46
Domi 15:46
Suzuki 15:16

Centers TOI in the last 2 years :

Danault 18:13
Domi 17:14
Kotkaniemi whatever TOI was left after Thompson was exhausted.

Suzuki looks like he's hitting a wall to me. I expect his toi drop going forward.

 

[angusyoung]

Suzuki looks like he's hitting a wall to me. I expect his toi drop going forward.

Looks like he got JD as a line-mate to me.

 

[The Great Weal]

I wont lie it would be funny as **** to see the team makes the playoffs right after Danault has finally seen his TOI reduced by the coach. Man that would be something.

Centers TOI in the last 5 games :

Danault 16:46
Domi 15:46
Suzuki 15:16

Centers TOI in the last 2 years :

Danault 18:13
Domi 17:14
Kotkaniemi whatever TOI was left after Thompson was exhausted.

Ya that's the reason why. Not the fact that Florida is shitting to bed and Toronto can't beat their own 42 year old zamboni driver. It's only because we reduced Danaults minutes.

 

[justafan22]

Making the playoffs for this team would be so bittersweet, but good

 

[26Mats]

Looks like he got JD as a line-mate to me.

*still not fully healthy Drouin