Players who were projected relatively high in their pre-draft years

[Nerowoy nora tolad]

ie, players who were projected as potential high picks in their age 14, 15, 16, 17 years for future drafts, but had their stock fall before during or after their actual draft year

IIRC McDavid & Ho-Sang were being talked about in similar terms when they were drafted into the OHL (2012 I think)

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[decma]

Angelo Esposito

 

[ted2019]

Sean Day

 

[WarriorofTime]

This thread screams Nick Ebert. A consensus first round pick after his Draft -2 year in the OHL. Rated 9th coming into the season. Had a completely garbage season and regressed in a lot of areas and showed improvement in none. Ended up being Mr. Irrelevant (last pick of the Draft).

here is an article less than a year before the draft on him https://thehockeywriters.com/nick-ebert-americas-top-nhl-draft-prospect/

 

[WarriorofTime]

Sean Day

OHL Exceptional Players...

Tavares!

Ekblad!

McDavid!

....Day....

Whoops.

 

[Habsfan18]

Angelo Esposito and Kirill Kabanov immediately come to mind. The next Quebec and Russian stars respectively.

Lindsay Vallis and Brent Bilodeau from a Habs POV. Both were highly touted in the year before their draft eligibility and viewed as potential top 5 picks, but regressed in their actual draft year with the Habs taking a flier on both. They both busted quite hard.

Paul Brousseau (1992) and Ryan Hughes (1990) were both highly touted in the years leading into their drafts. Both were expected to be among the top of their class.

Seth Ambroz, Daniel Catenacci, John McFarland, Matia Marcantuoni.

There are many many more examples. Goes to show that predicting where draftees will end up before their actual draft year is a total crap shoot. So much can change in even a year.

 

[Ishdul]

Sean Day was an Exceptional Player because they wanted to get him to the OHL and he otherwise might have gone to college or some other route. He was considered ~good~ but went 4th in the OHL draft (compared to #1 with a bullet for all the other guys) and never really should have gotten Exceptional status.

Joe Veleno was also an Exceptional Player in the QMJHL.

 

[kaiser matias]

Steven Anthony was fairly highly regarded coming into the QMJHL in 2007 with Saint John. He didn't live up to those expectations at all, but did manage to get drafted in 2009, though as a 7th round pick by Vancouver. He failed to reach a point per game in his final, overage QMJHL season, and spent a couple years not doing anything in the ECHL and CHL before retiring (he later played Canadian university hockey for a bit).

 

[Kent Nilsson]

O’Reilly
Saad
Barzal
Liljegren

 

[WarriorofTime]

Angelo Esposito and Kirill Kabanov immediately come to mind. The next Quebec and Russian stars respectively.

Lindsay Vallis and Brent Bilodeau from a Habs POV. Both were highly touted in the year before their draft eligibility and viewed as potential top 5 picks, but regressed in their actual draft year with the Habs taking a flier on both. They both busted quite hard.

Paul Brousseau (1992) and Ryan Hughes (1990) were both highly touted in the years leading into their drafts. Both were expected to be among the top of their class.

Seth Ambroz, Daniel Catenacci, John McFarland, Matia Marcantuoni.

There are many many more examples. Goes to show that predicting where draftees will end up before their actual draft year is a total crap shoot. So much can change in even a year.

McFarland applied for Exceptional Player Status with the OHL and didn't get it. He and his dad threw a major hissy fit and claimed he was better than Tavares who they knew from the GTHL. Kid had a garbage work ethic. Good frame and natural ability (scored 96 goals one season in the GTHL), but if you don't keep working hard after you turn 15 and decided that you already "made it" that's how you end up going from a Youth Hockey 'legend' to a guy that bounces between the AHL and ECHL.

Funny enough, he had an older brother that was not talented at all (10th round pick in the OHL Minor Draft) but an extremely hard worker and good character guy that became the captain of his OHL team and squeezed out as much out of hockey as he could. You wonder if the family saw the younger one that had all the talent in the world and babied and spoiled him too much. The brother is into coaching now, he was an NHL assistant for a bit (most recently with Toronto) and is now the head guy for an OHL team.

 

[McRpro]

Adam Colagiacomo

 

[WarriorofTime]

Sean Day was an Exceptional Player because they wanted to get him to the OHL and he otherwise might have gone to college or some other route. He was considered ~good~ but went 4th in the OHL draft (compared to #1 with a bullet for all the other guys) and never really should have gotten Exceptional status.

Joe Veleno was also an Exceptional Player in the QMJHL.

Why were that concerned with losing a medicore talent to the NCAA? A bunch of extremely well touted Canadian kids every year opt for Junior A (or USHL or some other route) and NCAA and it's no big deal (Owen Power most recently). The Canada Under-20s at the World Juniors typically have a few NCAA guys on it every year.

I thought with Day it was a thing where he was basically an extremely early January birthday that matured early and got tagged as a "generational" prospect way too young when in reality he was just slightly older and a lot bigger and stronger than his birth year, that stuck with him through Minor Hockey. Feel bad for him and Joe Veleno. Getting that 'exceptional player that flamed out' label is tough to have to live with and I'm sure they get chirped a lot in the Minors for it. Don't really recall Veleno when he was coming up, so not sure why he was "exceptional player", especially as I believe he's the only player to be granted that outside of the OHL (even guys like MacKinnon and Lafreniere started in the Q with their birth year). Looks like another January birthday so I wonder if similar to Day in some respects.

Personally, I think they need to be more cautious with "exceptional player". If you start giving it to a kid every single year, it loses the true purpose. The whole reason it got created for Tavares was because there was a lot of concern about over-riping him and he was always playing a year up in the GTHL and was way too good as is as a 14 year old playing against 15 year olds, so having him then play as a 15 year old against 15 year olds didn't serve much purpose.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Day, more than anything, could skate like someone five years older than him. As if often the case with 13-15 year olds that get widespread acclaim for their physical attributes, the advantage tends to fade as their peers catch up to them physically. He was arguably the fastest skater in the world amongst 15 year olds. By 17, he was fast, but not the fastest. Now at 23, his skating is still good, but he is stuck in the AHL for a reason.

Tyler Benson is another that comes to mind. He set the all-time record* for points at the John Reid Batman tournament when he was 14, despite being in a full grown body against a bunch of 5'4 140 lbs. kids.

* His accolade was a weird one to get boosted, as he only has the record because he played in the tournament twice. Johnathon Toews has the single tournament record at 36 points in 7 games compared to Benson's 21 points in 5 games.

 

[kaiser matias]

Didn't Day also have the threat of being a dual US-Canadian citizen and threatening to go to the USNTDP if he didn't get exceptional status? I recall that coming up and the CHL not wanting to lose him to the Americans, so they gave in to that.

Edit: I see @Ishdul already noted that to some degree.

 

[vadim sharifijanov]

wasn’t jordan schroeder at one point ranked just outside the top five of his draft?

 

[MarkusKetterer]

Rico Fata was highly thought of growing up. He played his 15 year old season playing for the Soo Greyhounds, then was drafted 1st overall by the London Knights. He still end up being drafted 6th overall by the Flames, but he was only good at skating.

 

[kaiser matias]

wasn’t jordan schroeder at one point ranked just outside the top five of his draft?

He was up there, yeah. In the CSS final rankings he was the fifth-highest North American skater; can't find what he projected as, but I remember he was considered a steal by the Canucks at 22nd overall. It was felt his height led to the drop-off.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Didn't Day also have the threat of being a dual US-Canadian citizen and threatening to go to the USNTDP if he didn't get exceptional status? I recall that coming up and the CHL not wanting to lose him to the Americans, so they gave in to that.

Edit: I see @Ishdul already noted that to some degree.

But even if he went to the OHL he could have played for USA in international competition and it's not like he was going to make the USNDTP as a 15 year old as that is birth year dependent. I'm not really following though, somehow without exceptional player status he might play for USA in the World Juniors? What a stupid reason to potentially mess up a kid's development. He never even made Canada's World Junior team... not even its under-18s or its select team for the Gretzky Tournament. And I doubt he would have made USA as a 19 year old either (but don't recall the year and who was chosen that year).

 

[crobro]

Dale Derkatch

Scott Driscoll

 

[alko]

Alex Forsberg. Drafted 2010, 1 #1 overall by Prince George Cougars in the WHL Bantam Draft.

Future NHL top 3. At least in year 2010. Unfortunately, something happened and that was. Never drafted into NHL.

And believe or not, ISS draft ranking in september 2006 had David Skokan as Top 10 player.

 

[kaiser matias]

But even if he went to the OHL he could have played for USA in international competition and it's not like he was going to make the USNDTP as a 15 year old as that is birth year dependent. I'm not really following though, somehow without exceptional player status he might play for USA in the World Juniors? What a stupid reason to potentially mess up a kid's development. He never even made Canada's World Junior team... not even its under-18s or its select team for the Gretzky Tournament. And I doubt he would have made USA as a 19 year old either (but don't recall the year and who was chosen that year).

That is something I can't comment on, as I have no idea. But I know it's been a topic before with players (see Cam Fowler, who went back and forth between the OHL and USNTDP for some time; Tyler Myers, who was courted by the Americans due to him being born in Texas and living there until he was 10; and I'm sure a few others).

 

[McGarnagle]

Wasn't Gilbert Brule the consensus #2 after Crosby going into the 2004-05 junior season? Then he fell to about 5th or 6th and had a short and unremarkable career

 

[kaiser matias]

Wasn't Gilbert Brule the consensus #2 after Crosby going into the 2004-05 junior season? Then he fell to about 5th or 6th and had a short and unremarkable career

He was one of the names projected to go second, yeah. It was seen as a steal for Columbus to get him at 6th overall. Then he was rushed to the NHL, broke bones in two separate incidents and played only 7 games with the Blue Jackets before being sent back to the WHL. Also factor in that his father was abusive (I think verbally, not physically), and the mix led to a career that had him playing in Poland last year.

 

[Staniowski]

Jason Spezza.....he didn't drop a huge amount but he did some.

I watched Spezza play a lot when he was young....once when he was 14 (minor hockey AAA), many times when he was 15 (Brampton, OHL), a few times when he was 16 (Mississauga, OHL).

When he was 14 and 15, he was compared, some, to Mario Lemieux. Like Lemieux, Spezza was a right shot, very talented with the puck.

Spezza did look like he had the potential to be something close to Lemieux if he improved his skating a little.

But, it was obvious in his 16-year-old season that it wasn't going to happen.

 

[Osakahaus]

wasn’t jordan schroeder at one point ranked just outside the top five of his draft?

Yes, he was supposed to be a next big thing. Too bad injuries derailed him and now he's in Jokerit in the KHL.