Speculation: Players Traded to Avoid Expansion Draft Exposure

[BeastoftheEast85]

Rules for 2017 Expansion Draft: https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-expansion-draft-rules/c-281010592

The new expansion draft means deep teams, teams too liberal with NMCs, defense-heavy teams and teams with more than one solid goaltender will have some difficult decisions to make. They may choose to move valuable players sooner rather than lose them for nothing later. I am curious to see which players are likely to be moved or are available because of this. As well as, speculate on some potential trade that could be in the works:

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[PatrikOverAuston]

The Oilers will be forced to expose one of Brandon Davidson or Griffin Reinhart. They're as opposite as two prospects could be- one is a late-blooming 25-year-old plucked from the depths of the draft who plays smart, simple finesse hockey, and the other is a physical stay-at-home defender taken in the top five once upon a time.

Davidson is an interesting player in that the NHL rewards his kind of game. He could be a 25-30 point #3/4 who plays special teams, a sort of left-handed Jason Demers. When he gambles, he can produce offence, but he doesn't have the skills to play that way all the time.

Reinhart- well, we mostly know what he's going to be. A more Brendan Dillon-esque player, he won't likely break 20 points in a season. However, he's a more sure thing and could, like Dillon, plays his first complete season as 22-year-old.

Truth be told, I don't know that Vegas grabs either as the list of established NHL defencemen available will be extremely long. However, if LV is in need of a cheap contract who can grow into a top four role as a quasi-prospect, both are good gets.

 

[Rebels57]

The Flyers will have to expose D prospect Robert Hagg (assuming they protect Ghost, Gudas, Morin) in all likelihood. I could see him being traded prior to that point to a team that can protect him. Either that or they could offer Vegas a pick to not draft him.

 

[LordNeverLose]

The Isles are likely to have to expose 2 of CDH, Strome, Nelson, and Lee

Assuming Pulock has to be protected. If he's exempt, then only one of those.

 

[Spearmint Rhino]

Wonder if we will see teams swapping players from forward to D to mix up the split they can protect or if there are rules on numbers of games they have to play at a position

 

[Joe Sakic]

One of Varlamov or Pickard.

Unless we trade one.

 

[PTH]

The Habs will have to expose two of Danault, De La Rose, Torrey Mitchell and Charles Hudon, and Carr. Depending on results this season, this could be a tough choice.

If Radulov is re-signed before the expansion draft, that's 4 of those guys who are exposed (ie, only one protected).

On D Habs are simple enough to understand, if Petry, Weber and Beaulieu are protected, Emelin is somewhat overpaid, Markov will be a UFA and is close to the end of the road... Barberio and Pateryn are very useful but guys like that will be available by the dozen.

 

[PSUhockey34]

Orlov if the Caps sign Alzner before the end of the season. They could allow Alzner to hit UFA and then sign him after the expansion draft w/o having to expose Orlov

 

[allan5oh]

Jets will trade Myers if they want to protect 3 more forwards. But they aren't forced to.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

One of Varlamov or Pickard.

Unless we trade one.

And two of Soderberg (NTC), Grigorenko and Colborne. Unless Beauchemin waives his NMC and gets exposed, which would be the best scenario by far.

 

[PensBeerGeek]

How many teams have extra defenseman protection slots though?

 

[JLarucci23]

Trevor Van Riemsdyk will have to be traded or exposed by the Hawks.

 

[VoidCreature]

How many teams have extra defenseman protection slots though?

The Devils do.

 

[CorgisPer60]

The Jets could be forced to trade one of their D - either Trouba or Myers - to get the most value out of the expansion draft rules (7F 3D 1G), but I personally don't think that there's a depth player on the Jets that is worth protecting more than the top 4 D the Jets currently have. Here are the expansion eligible players on the Jets that qualify for the expansion draft:

Mark Scheifele
Bryan Little
Blake Wheeler
Mathieu Perreault
Alexander Burmistrov
Shawn Matthias
Marko Dano
Andrew Copp
Joel Armia
Adam Lowry

Toby Enstrom
Dustin Byfuglien
Tyler Myers
Jacob Trouba
Ben Chiarot

Michael Hutchinson
Connor Hellebuyck

There are others in the farm system (Kosmachuk, Lipon, Howden, Kichton, Melchiori, Olsen), but the likelihood of LV taking those over an NHL roster player is pretty unlikely. Out of all of those, if the Jets do trade a D to enable them to protect 7F and 3D, I predict that they go with this:

Scheifele
Little
Wheeler
Perreault
Dano/Armia (pretty interchangeable at this point, so will come down to who Chevy values more)
Lowry
Copp

Byfuglien
Enstrom
Trouba/Myers (whoever isn't traded)

Hellebuyck

That's if they value their depth pieces more than the extra D protection. Personally, there isn't a depth option on the Jets that is worth protecting, nor is it remotely difficult to replace the player you lost in the expansion draft.

4F/4D/1G

Scheifele
Little
Wheeler
Perreault

Buff
Enstrom
Myers
Trouba

Hellebuyck

That leaves Matthias, Burmistrov, Copp, Lowry, Dano, and Armia exposed. Matthias was signed expressly for the expansion draft (either to entice LV to take him or to help fulfill the draft rules). Those are good players to expose, but nothing worth losing sleep over if they are exposed and one of them is claimed. Still, for a cap conscious team like the Jets, the idea of losing assets for nothing is a heavy concern, which is why they could very well trade a D to make it easier for them to protect more forwards.

Anyways, those are my thoughts for the Jets.

Wonder if we will see teams swapping players from forward to D to mix up the split they can protect or if there are rules on numbers of games they have to play at a position

The NHL isn't dumb; they'll see right through that and assess a penalty to a team that tries to play cute with that.

 

[lindholmie]

One of fowler, depres or Manson. Maybe montour

 

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

The NHL isn't dumb; they'll see right through that and assess a penalty to a team that tries to play cute with that.

 

[CorgisPer60]

I like to think that they learned from that. That's also on a different level than literally checking rosters to see where a player was historically used before the expansion draft season.

 

[Mr Misty]

Think about what things teams with extra protection slots have in common. The most obvious one is that they aren't very good. Now imagine how asking a team expecting to pick in the 5-10 range for futures in exchange for Killorn and Enstrom would be received. You can't add a team's 4th best defenseman or 8th best forward to a sub playoff bubble team and get a contender.

It's fun to imagine what it would be like for lots of trades to be made, but there aren't enough protection slots to cover all the players worth protecting and teams with 4 good defensemen like Nashville will be protecting 8 skaters, further decreasing the number of spots.

 

[Philadelphia Ducks]

The Flyers will have to expose D prospect Robert Hagg (assuming they protect Ghost, Gudas, Morin) in all likelihood. I could see him being traded prior to that point to a team that can protect him. Either that or they could offer Vegas a pick to not draft him.

Why do we have to protect Morin, this will be his second season? It'll be Del Zotto, Ghost, and Gudas protected I'd imagine.

 

[talkinaway]

Wonder if we will see teams swapping players from forward to D to mix up the split they can protect or if there are rules on numbers of games they have to play at a position

I'm pretty sure I've read something about certain statistics being "admissible" for arbitration - goal, assists, points, maybe +/- (don't get me started), games played, TOI. Other stats aren't admissible - namely, fancy stats. But, either way, when they're settling on a certain player's arbitrated salary, the position of forward/defenseman has to be a factor in their arbitrated contract value.

I imagine the NHL will say a player's position is basically like pornography - you'll know it when you see it.

That said, there are players who cross boundaries, and who can literally play both positions. Brent Burns and Dustin Byfuglien are two legitimately blurry cases that come to mind - both played defense last season (AFAIK), but both have played forward.

Are there any other cases like this? I don't follow all 30 teams in great detail, but I can at least confidently say that there was no one on the Bruins the last 3-4 years who fits that description. Torey Krug played forward in ONE game at the end of 2013-4 when they were going through the motions. That's one game as forward, 240 as defense. (And five seconds as goalie. I'm actually not kidding about that - it happened last season. He made a great save, and instead of "Tuuuuuuuk", the Garden chanted "Kruuuuuuug".)

My guess is, if pushed, the NHL say "If a skater has played x number of games in the past y seasons as a defenseman, he's D. Otherwise, he's F." And my guess is that the threshold will be absurdly low. Trying to count Buff or Burns as a forward is clearly angle-shooting, and the 28 other GMs would call it in an instant.

Both of the two cases I know are Fs-to-D. If you had the opposite case, of a guy who played D in 2014-5 and before but went to forward in 2015-6, one could make the argument that they should count as D, since they're more versatile, and the D is a more "valuable" position.

 

[Rebels57]

Why do we have to protect Morin, this will be his second season? It'll be Del Zotto, Ghost, and Gudas protected I'd imagine.

Youre right. Morin will still be exempt as he will still be considered a 2 year Pro.

We can protect Hagg, unless we extend Del Zotto.

The Flyers will also have to expose either Scott Laughton or Nick Cousins so I can see one of them traded.

 

[sd1976]

Why do we have to protect Morin, this will be his second season? It'll be Del Zotto, Ghost, and Gudas protected I'd imagine.

AHL counts as a professional season.

 

[Maelmoor]

In theory could a team trade a defenseman to another for a forward, where both teams would have a slot free for the players they receive, then after the expansion draft trade them back?

 

[Mark Kandy]

The Habs will have to expose two of Danault, De La Rose, Torrey Mitchell and Charles Hudon, and Carr. Depending on results this season, this could be a tough choice.

If Radulov is re-signed before the expansion draft, that's 4 of those guys who are exposed (ie, only one protected).

On D Habs are simple enough to understand, if Petry, Weber and Beaulieu are protected, Emelin is somewhat overpaid, Markov will be a UFA and is close to the end of the road... Barberio and Pateryn are very useful but guys like that will be available by the dozen.

Personally I'm cumfurtable with Habs situation regarding the expansion draft.

We protect Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Shaw, Plekanec, Danault, Andrighetto, Weber, Beaulieu, Petry... and hopefully extend Radulov and Markov after the expansion draft. That leaves Byron, Carr, Mitchell, Emelin, Barberio and Pateryn exposed. I don't care losing one of these forwards, and like you said previously, Pateryn and Barberio are good but bottom-pairing defensemen are easy to find in the NHL. I like Emelin but losing him would give us 4,1M in cap space so it would be okay as well!

 

[Broad Street Elite]

AHL counts as a professional season.

Correct, but Morin will not have completed his second professional year by the time of this expansion draft, so he'll be exempt.