Players told salary cap will be $44 million

[kdb209]

Disagree. I could see it going up even more next season.

Just how is that going to happen? The TV revenue will not get better next year. The radio revenue will not go up. Attendance was supposedly at a record high this season. So I don't see a significant increase from gate revenue. I just can't see the league having more than flat to marginal gains from here on out. Don't forget that alot of people were hungry for hockey this year after the long lockout. Now that hockey is back that hunger will not be as intense for the average hockey fan. so it is still very possible that the league will have lower revenues next year.

No. I think it very likely that the Cap will go up again next season.

TV revenues will likely increase. Yes the national OLN/NBC deals don't change, but all the local RSN cable deals, which make up the bulk of the league TV revenues, may - many have year-to-year escalators (albeit small). I'm not familiar with the state of the Canadian national (CBC/TSN) and local deals - are they expected to increase next season?

Gate revenues will increase. Many teams reduced ticket prices last year after the lockout and are now increasing them back. For example, the Sharks lowered ticket prices 4-17% last year and are raising them back up this season (although for most seats still a little less than the pre-lockout prices) - my seats went from $28/seat before the lockout to $24 last season to $26 next year.

Luxury box and advertising revenues will increase. Some teams had soft luxury box and arena advertising revenues because of the limited time to market boxes/advertising after the lockout was finally resolved and because companies had alredy dedicated their dollars elsewhere. Now, with a more normal marketing timeline, it is likely that box and ad revenues will be up.

And, given all that, even if revenues stay flat, it is still possible that the cap could go up. This year, the NHLPA waived the 5% revenue escalator for calculating the cap - cap based on 100% of revenues instead of 105%. There is no guarantee that the PA will agree to that again.

 

[kdb209]

There are all kinds of discussions about Martin St Louis' contract and the cap hit for a team interested in his services.

Question:

His contract was front-loaded and the cap hit I believe was in the 5 million per year range for TB. If he gets traded does the new team assume the same cap hit or just the cap hit for the remainder of the contract? (i.e. total left to be paid divided by yrs left on the contract)

There is no change in the cap hit. The averaging is a one time thing - when the contract was signed (for post lockout deals) or after the lockout, based on remaining years/dollars (for pre lockout deals) - and does not change over the life of the contract.

 

[Captain Ron]

No. I think it very likely that the Cap will go up again next season.

Gate revenues will increase. Many teams reduced ticket prices last year after the lockout and are now increasing them back. For example, the Sharks lowered ticket prices 4-17% last year and are raising them back up this season (although for most seats still a little less than the pre-lockout prices) - my seats went from $28/seat before the lockout to $24 last season to $26 next year.

I fully expect ticket prices to go up.But I also expect that because of the price increase that attendance will go down. This will make the increase in gate revenue marginal to none.

Luxury box and advertising revenues will increase. Some teams had soft luxury box and arena advertising revenues because of the limited time to market boxes/advertising after the lockout was finally resolved and because companies had alredy dedicated their dollars elsewhere. Now, with a more normal marketing timeline, it is likely that box and ad revenues will be up.

I honestly do not think that will be the case. From what I read most teams had significant luxury box revenue. I really do not see that increasing substantially.

And, given all that, even if revenues stay flat, it is still possible that the cap could go up. This year, the NHLPA waived the 5% revenue escalator for calculating the cap - cap based on 100% of revenues instead of 105%. There is no guarantee that the PA will agree to that again.

That would be the only thing I can see making the cap go up next year. But I predict the cap will be within $1 million (up or down) of it's current ceiling of $44 million come next Summer.

 

[Artie]

There is no change in the cap hit. The averaging is a one time thing - when the contract was signed (for post lockout deals) or after the lockout, based on remaining years/dollars (for pre lockout deals) - and does not change over the life of the contract.

So front loading a contract does not make the contract more cap friendly if player is traded but does make it easier in terms of financial hit to a team.


Thanks.

 

[GSC2k2*]

No. I think it very likely that the Cap will go up again next season.

TV revenues will likely increase. Yes the national OLN/NBC deals don't change, but all the local RSN cable deals, which make up the bulk of the league TV revenues, may - many have year-to-year escalators (albeit small). I'm not familiar with the state of the Canadian national (CBC/TSN) and local deals - are they expected to increase next season?

Gate revenues will increase. Many teams reduced ticket prices last year after the lockout and are now increasing them back. For example, the Sharks lowered ticket prices 4-17% last year and are raising them back up this season (although for most seats still a little less than the pre-lockout prices) - my seats went from $28/seat before the lockout to $24 last season to $26 next year.

Luxury box and advertising revenues will increase. Some teams had soft luxury box and arena advertising revenues because of the limited time to market boxes/advertising after the lockout was finally resolved and because companies had alredy dedicated their dollars elsewhere. Now, with a more normal marketing timeline, it is likely that box and ad revenues will be up.

And, given all that, even if revenues stay flat, it is still possible that the cap could go up. This year, the NHLPA waived the 5% revenue escalator for calculating the cap - cap based on 100% of revenues instead of 105%. There is no guarantee that the PA will agree to that again.

Don't forget licensing as well. I think that is constantly on the increase.

 

[GSC2k2*]

At any rate, I'd say the odds are extremely remote (like 1 in a billion) it jumps by 300m like it did this year.

Don't forget that revenue did not "jump by 300m". It actually stayed more or less steady, or perhaps declined marginally. It just didn't drop by $300-400 million as hey feared it might.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I'm cutting this loose, since I think all questions/comments on this have been asked/answered.