The Panther
Registered User
As I've mentioned in a few threads, I find very interesting to look at players' total on-ice goals for and against, as I think this gives us -- esp. in reasonably large sample sizes -- the "real" measurement of a player's impact on the team. While one could fairly argue that this disadvantages the checking forward and the defensive defenceman, who have tough match-ups and rarely get power-play time, I find the reverse situation (measuring the mostly offensive player only by his 5-on-5 results) to be even more misleading. So, I'm going to try to rank some random notable players first by their total goals for/against, and then I'll do a second list according to the same but with Power-play goals against taken out, to see if that makes any big difference.
This is also an interesting way of looking at "scoring" stats in that, unlike most such stats, it probably favors contemporary players and specifically disadvantages players of the higher-scoring era. Players' roles tended to be more limited in early expansion and again nowadays, whereas in the 80s/90s it seemed to be more of a thing to have your 1st line out against the other team's 1st line, etc. Top-scorers also rarely kill penalties now.
Anyway, after looking at random players' career stats, I'm wondering how many players (with substantially long careers) have finished with a positive on-ice goal differential of 2 to 1 or better? That is, players who were on the ice for twice as many goals for as against over a career. It has to be a very short list.
I tend to start with Bobby Orr in these things, as the ice was so tilted when he was on. His career totals come out to: 1651 goals for and 781 goals against (those specific numbers aren't available, that I can find, for his rookie season, but since he was +1 overall, they probably wouldn't make a huge difference). That's incredibly impressive. It makes a ratio of 2.11 -- 1 for his career. Now, granted it was a short career of mostly prime only, but even in his 26 games with Chicago he was at 50 for and 25 against, which is ridiculous considering how banged up he was and how average the Hawks were.
However, Mike Bossy was at -- in a short career -- 2.50 -- 1. Pretty amazing, even though he almost never killed penalties.
Guy Lafleur: a ratio of 2.28 -- 1, even better than Orr's and with a considerably longer career! However, he also rarely killed penalties. And before praising Lafleur too much for his goal-differential dominance, we should pause to note that Steve Shutt's totals are 1264 for and 563 against, for a 2.25 -- 1 ratio, which is also better than Orr. So, we have a situation with Lafleur and Shutt where they played most of their careers on a hugely dominant team and were not really ever used in defensive situations. Still, pretty impressive career numbers! And I should note that Lafleur was still a huge plus on the so-so Rangers in the late 80s, and even a small plus on horror-bad Quebec his last two seasons.
Then, I found a more recent player whose numbers are off the charts: Peter Forsberg! Albeit he also had a shortened career, he did play regularly until age 34 (and briefly at 37), and his numbers come out to 1139 for and 559 against, for a ratio of 2.04 -- 1. That's impressive.
Here is a list of random players' ratios for career totals, ranked according to positive ratio, including the 5 players above, who are the only ones I've come across who are at 2.00 -- 1 or better for career:
2.50 Mike Bossy
2.28 Guy Lafleur
2.25 Steve Shutt
2.11 Bobby Orr (lacking data from first season)
2.04 Peter Forsberg
_________________
1.93 Sidney Crosby
1.89 Alex Ovechkin
1.84 Evgeni Malkin
1.83 Eric Lindros
1.80 Jaromir Jagr
1.64 Patrick Kane
1.63 Bryan Trottier (1.79 in New York)
1.62 Phil Esposito (lacking data from first four seasons in Chicago)
1.61 Bobby Clarke
1.59 Mario Lemieux
1.58 Denis Potvin
1.56 Nicklas Lidstrom
1.56 Sergei Fedorov
1.54 Wayne Gretzky (1.79 in Edmonton)
1.54 Larry Robinson
1.53 Paul Coffey
1.52 Ray Bourque
1.51 Peter Stastny
1.48 Connor McDavid
1.46 Joe Sakic (1.74 in Colorado)
1.40 Steve Yzerman
On the other side, some players are surprisingly unimpressive (attributable to various reasons, of course, but nevertheless):
1.19 Chris Chelios
1.19 Erik Karlsson
1.18 Mark Messier
1.18 Scott Stevens
**********
Okay, so now let's take those same random 30 players and re-rank them after taking away Power-play goals against (the purpose being to even the playing field of those who regular killed penalties and those who didn't, in theory). Obviously, everyone's ratio will get better (though Steve Shutt and Patrick Kane were only on the ice for 3 PP goals against their entire careers, so barely better), but the question is how will the rankings change?
So, then, it shakes down like this:
3.18 Bobby Orr (lacking data from first season)
2.64 Mike Bossy
2.62 Bobby Clarke
2.54 Peter Forsberg
2.35 Guy Lafleur
2.29 Denis Potvin
2.26 Steve Shutt
2.26 Nicklas Lidstrom
2.24 Ray Bourque
2.21 Bryan Trottier (2.38 in New York)
2.18 Sergei Fedorov
2.11 Eric Lindros
2.04 Sidney Crosby
2.03 Larry Robinson
_________________
1.96 Mario Lemieux
1.94 Phil Esposito (lacking data from first four seasons in Chicago)
1.93 Alex Ovechkin
1.92 Wayne Gretzky (2.27 in Edmonton)
1.92 Jaromir Jagr
1.91 Evgeni Malkin
1.87 Chris Chelios
1.85 Steve Yzerman
1.83 Paul Coffey
1.81 Joe Sakic (2.11 in Colorado)
1.72 Mark Messier
1.67 Scott Stevens
1.64 Patrick Kane
1.64 Connor McDavid
1.63 Peter Stastny
Chelios, Messier, and Stevens are somewhat redeemed in this measure, but still somewhat low is:
1.36 Erik Karlsson
Any interesting or surprising takeaways here? Only 4 players out of the 30 I selected never won the Stanley Cup, and the only two who never won for a complete career are Lindros and Stastny, which I think makes Lindros's excellent ratio all the more impressive.
However you measure these things, though, Bobby Orr tends to blow everyone away. With the usual caveats for the relatively early expansion era, etc., in 1970-71 Orr was on the ice for 258 Bruins' goals for and 55 non-PP goals against. That is insane. (The following season it's 209 - 54.) If Orr hadn't been charged with killing penalties at all, then in his peak years he would have, on average, been on the ice for 4 or 5 Bruins' goals for every 1 the opposition scored.
In 1977, Guy Lafleur was at 179 goals for and 43 non-PP goals against (actually, that's total goals against, as he didn't kill penalties at all, it seems), a ratio of about 4.16 -- 1, which is nutty good. Of course, everyone on the '77 Habs will look good in these sorts of stats.
Gretzky, in 1985, hit numbers like 249 goals for and 90 non-PP goals against, which is also incredible (2.77), but that season aside he never gets beyond about 2.5 goals for versus 1 against for any season.
In 2003, Forsberg was at 138 for and 42 against (3.29), which is incredibly good.
Crosby's numbers are really great in the 2012 and 2013 mini-seasons (injury + lockout). Those two partial seasons combined, he's at 119 for and 42 against, or a 2.83 ratio, but that's a small sample size.
Ovechkin at 2.27 in 2008.
**********
Anyway, just an interesting way to look at it. Thoughts, comments...?
And does anyone know any other players (besides Bossy, Lafleur, Shutt, Orr, Forsberg) who have a career ratio of 2.0 -- 1 or better?
This is also an interesting way of looking at "scoring" stats in that, unlike most such stats, it probably favors contemporary players and specifically disadvantages players of the higher-scoring era. Players' roles tended to be more limited in early expansion and again nowadays, whereas in the 80s/90s it seemed to be more of a thing to have your 1st line out against the other team's 1st line, etc. Top-scorers also rarely kill penalties now.
Anyway, after looking at random players' career stats, I'm wondering how many players (with substantially long careers) have finished with a positive on-ice goal differential of 2 to 1 or better? That is, players who were on the ice for twice as many goals for as against over a career. It has to be a very short list.
I tend to start with Bobby Orr in these things, as the ice was so tilted when he was on. His career totals come out to: 1651 goals for and 781 goals against (those specific numbers aren't available, that I can find, for his rookie season, but since he was +1 overall, they probably wouldn't make a huge difference). That's incredibly impressive. It makes a ratio of 2.11 -- 1 for his career. Now, granted it was a short career of mostly prime only, but even in his 26 games with Chicago he was at 50 for and 25 against, which is ridiculous considering how banged up he was and how average the Hawks were.
However, Mike Bossy was at -- in a short career -- 2.50 -- 1. Pretty amazing, even though he almost never killed penalties.
Guy Lafleur: a ratio of 2.28 -- 1, even better than Orr's and with a considerably longer career! However, he also rarely killed penalties. And before praising Lafleur too much for his goal-differential dominance, we should pause to note that Steve Shutt's totals are 1264 for and 563 against, for a 2.25 -- 1 ratio, which is also better than Orr. So, we have a situation with Lafleur and Shutt where they played most of their careers on a hugely dominant team and were not really ever used in defensive situations. Still, pretty impressive career numbers! And I should note that Lafleur was still a huge plus on the so-so Rangers in the late 80s, and even a small plus on horror-bad Quebec his last two seasons.
Then, I found a more recent player whose numbers are off the charts: Peter Forsberg! Albeit he also had a shortened career, he did play regularly until age 34 (and briefly at 37), and his numbers come out to 1139 for and 559 against, for a ratio of 2.04 -- 1. That's impressive.
Here is a list of random players' ratios for career totals, ranked according to positive ratio, including the 5 players above, who are the only ones I've come across who are at 2.00 -- 1 or better for career:
2.50 Mike Bossy
2.28 Guy Lafleur
2.25 Steve Shutt
2.11 Bobby Orr (lacking data from first season)
2.04 Peter Forsberg
_________________
1.93 Sidney Crosby
1.89 Alex Ovechkin
1.84 Evgeni Malkin
1.83 Eric Lindros
1.80 Jaromir Jagr
1.64 Patrick Kane
1.63 Bryan Trottier (1.79 in New York)
1.62 Phil Esposito (lacking data from first four seasons in Chicago)
1.61 Bobby Clarke
1.59 Mario Lemieux
1.58 Denis Potvin
1.56 Nicklas Lidstrom
1.56 Sergei Fedorov
1.54 Wayne Gretzky (1.79 in Edmonton)
1.54 Larry Robinson
1.53 Paul Coffey
1.52 Ray Bourque
1.51 Peter Stastny
1.48 Connor McDavid
1.46 Joe Sakic (1.74 in Colorado)
1.40 Steve Yzerman
On the other side, some players are surprisingly unimpressive (attributable to various reasons, of course, but nevertheless):
1.19 Chris Chelios
1.19 Erik Karlsson
1.18 Mark Messier
1.18 Scott Stevens
**********
Okay, so now let's take those same random 30 players and re-rank them after taking away Power-play goals against (the purpose being to even the playing field of those who regular killed penalties and those who didn't, in theory). Obviously, everyone's ratio will get better (though Steve Shutt and Patrick Kane were only on the ice for 3 PP goals against their entire careers, so barely better), but the question is how will the rankings change?
So, then, it shakes down like this:
3.18 Bobby Orr (lacking data from first season)
2.64 Mike Bossy
2.62 Bobby Clarke
2.54 Peter Forsberg
2.35 Guy Lafleur
2.29 Denis Potvin
2.26 Steve Shutt
2.26 Nicklas Lidstrom
2.24 Ray Bourque
2.21 Bryan Trottier (2.38 in New York)
2.18 Sergei Fedorov
2.11 Eric Lindros
2.04 Sidney Crosby
2.03 Larry Robinson
_________________
1.96 Mario Lemieux
1.94 Phil Esposito (lacking data from first four seasons in Chicago)
1.93 Alex Ovechkin
1.92 Wayne Gretzky (2.27 in Edmonton)
1.92 Jaromir Jagr
1.91 Evgeni Malkin
1.87 Chris Chelios
1.85 Steve Yzerman
1.83 Paul Coffey
1.81 Joe Sakic (2.11 in Colorado)
1.72 Mark Messier
1.67 Scott Stevens
1.64 Patrick Kane
1.64 Connor McDavid
1.63 Peter Stastny
Chelios, Messier, and Stevens are somewhat redeemed in this measure, but still somewhat low is:
1.36 Erik Karlsson
Any interesting or surprising takeaways here? Only 4 players out of the 30 I selected never won the Stanley Cup, and the only two who never won for a complete career are Lindros and Stastny, which I think makes Lindros's excellent ratio all the more impressive.
However you measure these things, though, Bobby Orr tends to blow everyone away. With the usual caveats for the relatively early expansion era, etc., in 1970-71 Orr was on the ice for 258 Bruins' goals for and 55 non-PP goals against. That is insane. (The following season it's 209 - 54.) If Orr hadn't been charged with killing penalties at all, then in his peak years he would have, on average, been on the ice for 4 or 5 Bruins' goals for every 1 the opposition scored.
In 1977, Guy Lafleur was at 179 goals for and 43 non-PP goals against (actually, that's total goals against, as he didn't kill penalties at all, it seems), a ratio of about 4.16 -- 1, which is nutty good. Of course, everyone on the '77 Habs will look good in these sorts of stats.
Gretzky, in 1985, hit numbers like 249 goals for and 90 non-PP goals against, which is also incredible (2.77), but that season aside he never gets beyond about 2.5 goals for versus 1 against for any season.
In 2003, Forsberg was at 138 for and 42 against (3.29), which is incredibly good.
Crosby's numbers are really great in the 2012 and 2013 mini-seasons (injury + lockout). Those two partial seasons combined, he's at 119 for and 42 against, or a 2.83 ratio, but that's a small sample size.
Ovechkin at 2.27 in 2008.
**********
Anyway, just an interesting way to look at it. Thoughts, comments...?
And does anyone know any other players (besides Bossy, Lafleur, Shutt, Orr, Forsberg) who have a career ratio of 2.0 -- 1 or better?