Player Point Projections '19-'20

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
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Dog Days of Summer thread...Point Projections for 19-20, based on 82 gp:

Larkin 85
Mantha 62
Bert 60
AA 60
Hirose 50

Nielsen 40
Flip 35
Helm 30 (bounce back year)
LGD 30

Zadina 25 (~40 gp)
Veleno 25 (~40 gp)
Ras 20 (~40 gp)
Svech 20 (~40 gp)

Abby 20
Ehn 15
DLR 15
____________
Green 45
Hronek 45
DDK 35
Nemeth 20
Bowey 20
Cholo 35

Kaski 15 (~40 gp)
Seider 10 (~ 40 gp)

Hicketts 1st call up, Lindstrom & Saarijarvi get cup of coffee

E/Daley-hope both traded/waived/dumped/LTIR'd by Oct.

Kronner retires, thanks for the memories #55!
 

Hen Kolland

Registered User
Feb 22, 2018
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So I don’t know if you expect all of this to happen, if that’s your ultimate guess, but I think you might be shooting for the moon and the stars and the sun and the galaxy.

If you that’s like over 200 more points than the team scored last year combined. If you assume that each goal has two assists, that’s still adding around 71 goals to their output from last year minimum. Which would place them second in the league in Goals For.
 

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

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Jun 23, 2018
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So I don’t know if you expect all of this to happen, if that’s your ultimate guess, but I think you might be shooting for the moon and the stars and the sun and the galaxy.

If you that’s like over 200 more points than the team scored last year combined. If you assume that each goal has two assists, that’s still adding around 71 goals to their output from last year minimum. Which would place them second in the league in Goals For.
I understand your point, what I'm saying is there will be injuries/trades/cap dumps etc, so if you account for those then I may be a bit high, but not too far off I think. For example, say Abby gets hurt & only plays 20gp, scores 5 pts.
 

Fil Larkmanthanasiou

Registered User
Feb 10, 2018
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Lol at thinking dekeyser hits 35 points. Dude will be lucky to hit 20.
He scored 20 in 52 games last year. Actually had better ES PPG clip than Yandle (who was 5th among d-men in scoring) as well a few other d-men who finished in the top 2o scoring among d-men.
 

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
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So I don’t know if you expect all of this to happen, if that’s your ultimate guess, but I think you might be shooting for the moon and the stars and the sun and the galaxy.

If you that’s like over 200 more points than the team scored last year combined. If you assume that each goal has two assists, that’s still adding around 71 goals to their output from last year minimum. Which would place them second in the league in Goals For.
Actually you're wrong, do the math...here's why:

If you add our top 12F & top 6D (not including rookie F&D), so the top 18 skaters I outlined it gives out 641.99 pts/3= 213.99 Goals/82 gp. That's nowhere near 2nd most goals as you suggest. Try again.
 

Hen Kolland

Registered User
Feb 22, 2018
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Actually you're wrong, do the math...here's why:

If you add our top 12F & top 6D (not including rookie F&D), so the top 18 skaters I outlined it gives out 641.99 pts/3= 213.99 Goals/82 gp. That's nowhere near 2nd most goals as you suggest. Try again.

2018-19 Red Wings combined points: 603
Your suggested point totals combined: 822

Difference: 219 points.
Conservative assumption of 1/3 goals to 2/3 assists would give us... 219/3 = 73 goals. That’s 73 more goals than 2018-19.

2018-19 Red Wings Goals For: 224
Adjusted Goal total: 224+73 = 297

Don’t tell me to do the math when you can’t problem solve at an elementary school level. You are telling us your projections for point totals in 2019-20. I took them at face value, added them together and got an answer. You had a leg to stand on when you were talking about how players might not play a complete season (which defeats the purpose of this thread and your original post) and that would cause some adjustments to be necessary. But for the sake of this process, why the hell are you including players with point totals if you don’t expect them to play? Or if you do expect them to play, why are you excluding them from the total points scored?
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
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Tampere, Finland
1. Larkin, 72-82 points
2. Mantha, 55-62 p
3. Athanasiou, 53-60 p
4. Bertuzzi, 52-58 p
5. Nielsen, 39-45 p
6. Hirose, 30-50 p
7. Filppula, 34-40 p
8. Svechnikov, 24-41 p
9. Zadina, 15-40 p
10. Rasmussen, 17-30 p
11. Abdelkader, 19-26 p
12. Glendening 20-24 p
13. Helm, 17-25 p
14. De La Rose, 9-15 p
15. Ehn, 9-15 p
16. Veleno, 3-8 p
 
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Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
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2018-19 Red Wings combined points: 603
Your suggested point totals combined: 822

Difference: 219 points.
Conservative assumption of 1/3 goals to 2/3 assists would give us... 219/3 = 73 goals. That’s 73 more goals than 2018-19.

2018-19 Red Wings Goals For: 224
Adjusted Goal total: 224+73 = 297

................you were talking about how players might not play a complete season (which defeats the purpose of this thread and your original post) and that would cause some adjustments to be necessary. But for the sake of this process, why the hell are you including players with point totals if you don’t expect them to play? Or if you do expect them to play, why are you excluding them from the total points scored?

How do you not see what I'm saying? Also, no need for the snarkyness dude.

1. I'm excluding players in my team totals of 213 goals (assuming 2 assists per goal), because only 18 skaters (F&D) play/game. In your scenario (using my #'s) all 18+4+2 would play 82 games, thus skewing the result!

2. The individual projections are if those current 18 & 4 rookie F's & 2 rookie D players play 82gp.
The reason to do it this way is because nobody knows who will/won't play...
For example: If all of my top 18 players I outlined players, minus say Abby who misses all 82gp, then we can sub in 1 rookie F, which would bring the Team total goals & pts, slightly higher, but still nowhere near Top 15 in goals for, much less Top 2 GF as you suggested.

3. I hope this clarifies it for you, if not, I don't wish to keep expounding it, so maybe another poster can chime in and/or you can ask someone else.
 
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TheMule93

On a mule rides the swindler
May 26, 2015
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2018-19 Red Wings combined points: 603
Your suggested point totals combined: 822

Difference: 219 points.
Conservative assumption of 1/3 goals to 2/3 assists would give us... 219/3 = 73 goals. That’s 73 more goals than 2018-19.

2018-19 Red Wings Goals For: 224
Adjusted Goal total: 224+73 = 297

Don’t tell me to do the math when you can’t problem solve at an elementary school level. You are telling us your projections for point totals in 2019-20. I took them at face value, added them together and got an answer. You had a leg to stand on when you were talking about how players might not play a complete season (which defeats the purpose of this thread and your original post) and that would cause some adjustments to be necessary. But for the sake of this process, why the hell are you including players with point totals if you don’t expect them to play? Or if you do expect them to play, why are you excluding them from the total points scored?

lighten up, you're really overthinking this. Its a simple fun exercise.

Larkin - 80
Mantha - 65
Athanasiou 62
Bertuzzi 57
Nielsen 44
Hirose 39
Filp 35
Zadina 31
Veleno 28
Glendening 27
Helm 22
DLR 13
Ehn 11
Abdelkader 2

-----------

Hronek 47
Green 35
Cholowski 29
DeKeyser 22
Nemeth 15
Ericsson 15
Bowey 7
 

lilidk

Registered User
Mar 4, 2008
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Mantha going to be the only player who score 30 goals. 2020-2021 we get in playoff. 22-23 we will compete for Stenly cup
 
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Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
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1. Larkin, 72-82 points
2. Mantha, 55-62 p
3. Athanasiou, 53-60 p
4. Bertuzzi, 52-58 p
5. Nielsen, 39-45 p
6. Hirose, 30-50 p
7. Filppula, 34-40 p
8. Svechnikov, 24-41 p
9. Zadina, 15-40 p
10. Rasmussen, 17-30 p
11. Abdelkader, 19-26 p
12. Glendening 20-24 p
13. Helm, 17-25 p
14. De La Rose, 9-15 p
15. Ehn, 9-15 p
16. Veleno, 3-8 p
How many games do you project Veleno, Zadina, Ras & Svech to play?

Also, what's your forecast for the Dmen?
 

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
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lighten up, you're really overthinking this. Its a simple fun exercise.

Larkin - 80
Mantha - 65
Athanasiou 62
Bertuzzi 57
Nielsen 44
Hirose 39
Filp 35
Zadina 31
Veleno 28
Glendening 27
Helm 22
DLR 13
Ehn 11
Abdelkader 2

-----------

Hronek 47
Green 35
Cholowski 29
DeKeyser 22
Nemeth 15
Ericsson 15
Bowey 7

How many games do you project Veleno, Zadina, Ras & Svech to play?
 

Hatter of the Beach

I’m the real hero
Jun 26, 2017
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Parkland Estates, Florida
Paces if all play 82

Larkin 29-57-86
Mantha 32-37-69
Athansiou 30 -28- 58
Bertuzzi 24-30-54
Hirose 11-30- 41
Nielsen 12-26-38
Filppula 14-20-34
Svechnikov 12-12- 24
Glendenning 10-12-22
Abdelkader 9-12-21
Helm 7-11-18
Ehn 6-7-13

Young guys who likely wont play 82
Zadina 16-16-32 in 71 games
Veleno 5-12-17 in 31 games
Rasmussen 6-4-10 in 21 games near end.

D
Hronek 8-41-49 in 82 pace
Green 7-30-37 in 70 (Traded)
Cholowski 5-22-27 in 82 pace
Dekeyser 3-22-25
Bowey 4-14-18
Ericsson 3-10-13
Nemeth 1-8-9

Obviously total goals would be lower than here due to injuries, but I put all at expected 82 game pace. I'm both high on Veleno and think our offense may be better than we think. Still nowhere close to a playoff team, but I think this is a big stepping stone year.
 
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MBH

Players Play
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Larkin - 30-44-74
Nielsen - 9-22-31
Abdelkader - 6-14-20
Helm - 6-15-21
Mantha - 29-31-60
Athanasiou - 32-25-57
Filppula - 11-25-36
Glendening - 7-8-15
Bertuzzi - 24-31-55
De La Rose - 2-5-7
Rasmussen - 8-9-17
Svechnikov - 12-12-24
Zadina - 5-4-9
Hirose - 7-19-26

Green - 7-22-29
Dekeyser - 7-18-25
Ericsson - 0-4-4
Daley - 1-3-4
Nemeth - 1-7-8
Bowey - 3-12-15
Hronek - 7-22-29
Cholowski -6-12-18

Howard - .907 3.02
Bernier - .906 3.10

32 goals from the defense (33 last year)
196 from the forwards (191 last year)
 

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
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Larkin - 30-44-74
Nielsen - 9-22-31
Abdelkader - 6-14-20
Helm - 6-15-21
Mantha - 29-31-60
Athanasiou - 32-25-57
Filppula - 11-25-36
Glendening - 7-8-15
Bertuzzi - 24-31-55
De La Rose - 2-5-7
Rasmussen - 8-9-17
Svechnikov - 12-12-24
Zadina - 5-4-9
Hirose - 7-19-26

Green - 7-22-29
Dekeyser - 7-18-25
Ericsson - 0-4-4
Daley - 1-3-4
Nemeth - 1-7-8
Bowey - 3-12-15
Hronek - 7-22-29
Cholowski -6-12-18

Howard - .907 3.02
Bernier - .906 3.10

32 goals from the defense (33 last year)
196 from the forwards (191 last year)

How many GP do you project for: Cholo, Bowey, E & Daley, Hirose, Zadina, Svech & Ras?
 

Fil Larkmanthanasiou

Registered User
Feb 10, 2018
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How many GP do you project for: Cholo, Bowey, E & Daley, Hirose, Zadina, Svech & Ras?
Injuries are hard to project. Older guys and players with a history of being injury prone are more likely to miss more games but even then it's impossible to project such a thing. Who would have thought that Kronwall would play all but the first 3 games in each of the last 2 seasons (I know he only missed 3 games in each of the last 2 seasons and am pretty sure it was the first 3 in each)?
 

Oddbob

Registered User
Jan 21, 2016
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Forwards:

Dylan Larkin 78
Anthony Mantha 64
Andreas Athanasiou 63
Tyler Bertuzzi 47
Valtteri Filppula 41
Taro Hirose 39
Frans Nielsen 38
Darren Helm 35
Filip Zadina 31 (65 GP)
Luke Glendening 28
Evgeny Svechnikov 25 (71 GP)
Justin Abdelkader 22
Jacob de La Rose 18
Christopher Ehn 15
Michael Rasmussen 8 (25 GP)(Mostly AHL Season)

Joe Veleno (Full AHL Season)

Defencemen:

Filip Hronek 39
Mike Green 35 (If healthy for 65+ GP)
Dennis Cholowski 31 (60+ GP)
Danny Dekeyser 27
Madison Bowey 20
Patrick Nemeth 18
Trevor Daley 15 (55-60)
Joe Hicketts 12 (40-45GP)
Oliwer Kaski 8 (20-25)
Jonathan Ericsson 5 (30-35)
Gustav Lindstrom 2 (5-10)

Moritz Seider (Full DEL Season) (My hope is AHL or OHL though)
 

izlez

We need more toe-drags/60
Feb 28, 2012
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Y'all need to double your projections on Bertuzzi to be accurate
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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Green 45
Hronek 45
DDK 35

If true, this would have given us 3 defenseman in the top 40 scoring at that position last year.

We haven’t done this since we had Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Kronwall on the back end... and obviously this group is nowhere near that.

I am optimistic about Hronek, I’ll at least give you that much.
 

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
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If true, this would have given us 3 defenseman in the top 40 scoring at that position last year.

We haven’t done this since we had Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Kronwall on the back end... and obviously this group is nowhere near that.

I am optimistic about Hronek, I’ll at least give you that much.
 

Ghost of Ethan Hunt

The Official Ghost of Space Ghosts Monkey
Jun 23, 2018
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If true, this would have given us 3 defenseman in the top 40 scoring at that position last year.

We haven’t done this since we had Lidstrom, Rafalski, and Kronwall on the back end... and obviously this group is nowhere near that.

I am optimistic about Hronek, I’ll at least give you that much.

Consider this:

1. DDK was on pace for 31.53 pts/82gp last year, I think a full year with Hronek (assuming both healthy) & both top 3 TOI, he can manage the extra 3.47pts.

2. Green has more support with the heavy minutes with Hronek, DDK, Nemeth, & more/improved support up front etc.

3. Hronek was on pace for 40 pts last year, so an extra 5 with the F's up front improving, plus Flip & Hirose etc. Possibly Zadina.

I stand by my projection, if healthy & 82gp.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
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Consider this:

1. DDK was on pace for 31.53 pts/82gp last year, I think a full year with Hronek (assuming both healthy) & both top 3 TOI, he can manage the extra 3.47pts.

2. Green has more support with the heavy minutes with Hronek, DDK, Nemeth, & more/improved support up front etc.

3. Hronek was on pace for 40 pts last year, so an extra 5 with the F's up front improving, plus Flip & Hirose etc. Possibly Zadina.

I stand by my projection, if healthy & 82gp.

If Hronek hits 45, Green won’t. If Hronek and Green hit 45, Dekeyser won’t even get close to 35.

There’s only so much PP time to go around. At least 1 of those is going to be way off, and more than likely 2 out of 3. We have been running 1 D per PP unit for awhile and I’ve seen no report that is going to change.

Then you also have Cholowski pacing for 35...
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
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Tampere, Finland
1. Green, 32-44 points
2. Hronek, 24-42 p
3. Cholowski, 18-26 p
4. DeKeyser, 20-24 p
5. Bowey, 15-20 p
6. Daley, 12-16 p
7. Nemeth, 12-15 p
8. Ericsson, 5-12 p
9. Hicketts, 5-8 p
10. Kaski, 1-3 p
 

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