Post-Game Talk: Player Performance Tracking: Contributing to Goals For/Against

Discussion in 'Washington Capitals' started by Ajax1995, Oct 2, 2013.

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  1. Ajax1995

    Ajax1995 Registered User

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    Another thing I think we talked about doing last year was apportioning blame for goals against and credit for goals for. I think someone saw this on the Preds board and thought it might be interesting.



    EDIT: Example:

    Chicago Goals -

    Bollig from Hjalmarsson and Kruger
    1. Carrick bumped off the puck
    2. Hillen weak on the puck
    3. Brower in the corner leaving the point open
    4. Carrick out muscled in front on the rebound

    Kane
    1. Fehr lets kane catch the puck and drift right by
    2. Green lets kane get a clean shot off

    Seabrook
    1. Carlson probably with a bit of a screen
    2. Fehr probably gets too low leaving seabrook open

    Saad
    1. Johanssen with the turnover in the high slot
    2. backstrom with weak pressure on handzus
    3. Erskine for lets saad slip by him and get a touch on the puck

    Oduya
    1. Holtby...gotta have that save.

    Hossa
    Nobody...good effort, but empty net.

    Washington Goals -

    Ovechkin from Grabovski and Backstrom
    1. Ovechkin with a nice read/react on the deflected pass
    2. Grabovski with the vision (although the pass was off, it ended up working)
    3. backstrom with the pass down low

    Grabovski
    1. Ward for the puck pressure
    2. Grabovski with nice look off and the shot

    Grabovski from green and ovechkin
    1. Nice faceoff win by backstron
    2. Fake slapper from Ovi
    3. Shot on goal from green
    4. Grabo i guess for getting hit with the puck

    Grabovski from Green and Backstrom
    1. Wheelhouse setup from backstrom
    2. Shot on net from green
    3. nice tip from grabo


    Totals:

    Pluses
    2 - Ovi
    4 - Grabo
    3 - backstrom
    1 - ward
    2 - Green

    Minuses
    2 - Carrick
    1 - Hillen
    1 - brower
    2 - fehr
    1 - green
    1 - carlson
    1 - backstrom
    1 - johansson
    1 - erskine

    Total
    +4 Grabovski
    +2 Ovechkin
    +2 Backstrom
    +1 Green
    +1 Ward
    -1 Hillen
    -1 Brower
    -1 Carlson
    -1 Johansson
    -1 Erskine
    -1 Holtby
    -2 Fehr
    -2 Carrick
     
    Last edited by moderator ChibiPooky: Oct 3, 2013
  2. RandyHolt

    RandyHolt Keep truckin'

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    I am intrigued by the blame game. Let's pin those minus's where they should be. Not on innocent.. Yvon. Sorry but we are taking the plus's too, so we dont have any more fiddy mistakes.

    One that I never liked slipping the cracks, the brainfart giveaway -> goalie makes a great save; all is forgotten. Think Backstrom and Grabs last night.

    Heaven forbid the goalie doesn't stop the breakaway, you never hear the end of the costly turnover :laugh:
     
  3. Ajax1995

    Ajax1995 Registered User

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    Well I think it might be difficult to list all the mistakes we see. Maybe we just start with goals against and go from there?
     
  4. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    I don't really like the concept of the "blame game" or "defensive errors" (as RMNB tried to call them) much. Sometimes it's clearly one player at fault. But more often there's too much happening on the ice to assign blame to a lone player.

    Cast in point, Saad's goal. Was it Carrick's fault for pinching? Or was it Erskine's fault for letting Saad get by him so easily?

    Case in point #2, Kane's goal. Was it Holtby's fault for giving up a soft goal? Was it Green's fault for letting Toews skate through Holtby's crease? Was it Ward's fault (the closest forward to Kane and the RW) for letting a guy who should have been his check get so loose? Was it Fehr's fault for not being able to get back to the high slot quick enough to allow Ward to assume his resonsibility on the right flank?
     
  5. Ajax1995

    Ajax1995 Registered User

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    Blame Game: Oct. 1 game vs 'Hawks

    Please apportion blame for each goal against. If you want to call out other mistakes that didn't result in goals against that works also.

    Goal 1: 100% on Carrick. Sure you could put half of that on Oates and McPhee for putting a 5'10" 185lb 19 year old defenseman out there to battle the likes of the 6'2" 225lb Bollig to begin with but that is a different argument IMO.

    Goal 2: 50% on Green for simply standing there guarding the post a la Witt, 25% on Holtby for not challenging the shot at all, and 25% on Fehr for getting lost and not recognizing Kane had the puck. I do think half the guys on the ice didn't know where the puck was as they didn't see Kane snatch it out of the air though.

    Goal 3: I don't know if I have a fault here. I think it was just a well worked PP goal by the 'Hawks. I'll go back and watch that goal again just in case though.

    Goal 4: 60% on Erskine and 40% on Carrick. I give more blame to Erskine because he was on Saad first and he is the veteran there but they both made the same mistake.

    Goal 5: 100% Holtby. Nothing more to say.

    The one obvious other mistake was Backstrom's and Carlson's that resulted in Kane's breakaway. 50% for both as they both half a$$ed their part in what wasn't a tough play.
     
  6. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    As I mentioned in the other thread, not a fan of this. Too much going on at once, and goals are often a result of several things going wrong simultaneously, rather than any one individual error.

    If Chicago doesn't jump Johansson's pass and start a quick transition the other way, does Carrick's pinch on Saad's goal ("Goal 4") look bad? Hell, if Johansson shoots or completes that pass, it could very well be a quality scoring chance or a goal for Washington. Similarly, does that play go any differently if Carrick is back instead of Backstrom? Backstrom did a solid job as a forward in defense there, so it's not like Carrick completely hung the team out to dry by pinching.

    There are so many factors at play simultaneously you can't really blame any one of them on most goals.
     
  7. Ajax1995

    Ajax1995 Registered User

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    Sometimes you can blame one guy and sometimes it is more than one. You decide who you think is at fault. Obviously it isn't a science...

    And I don't have a problem with Carrick's pinch on goal 4. My problem was him and Erskine giving Saad a nice escort to Hotlby's net while never tying up his stick.
     
  8. brs03

    brs03 Coo coo ca cha!

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    Yeah. Erskine had plenty of opportunity to cover Saad, and Carrick got back in time as well. Both of them going to Saad may have added confusion, I guess, but it was still preventable at that point.

    Since zone-entries are all the rage right now I think it would be interesting to keep track of which players would have been in position to prevent the goal scorer (or puck carrier) at the blueline and how/why they didn't, but that's more work than I'm interested in doing at the moment.
     
  9. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    Is there a blog tracking zone entries for the Caps? Zone exits/breakouts?

    I'd also be interested to see how well zone time correlates with other possession metrics (shots/Corsi/Fenwick), and have someone track that. If there were more hours in the day, I'd probably do some of this myself.
     
  10. RandyHolt

    RandyHolt Keep truckin'

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    So much of how a player did, are expectations. Erat on 4 with 2 kids, what are we looking for from him. Vet leadership - put on his hitting hat?

    The blame game is tough, as we all see what we want to see anyways. I try to stick to my gut instinct as they are usually correct, in general. For anyone and everything in life, not just me and hockey. But we all see the same things differently hence the battle royals.

    To me, lines are easier to grade. Ward has to be the board guy. Chimera the speed guy, Fehr the gun. Why grade Chimera high, for being fast? The 3 have to mesh to get a good grade.

    I am not sure it has the legs for every game Millhaus. It should help if you made a template for folks in the OP to copy and not have to type all the names.
     
  11. joescores

    joescores Registered User

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    Watching post game- Brouwer saying- Grabo is STILL LEARNING and HE SHOULDN'T BE THERE WHERE HE WAS...Yeah Troy..He scored a hattie and an A in his first game so obviously you have done much better than him..It's you who needs to learn.. 5 v 5 you were a pylon on that second line..Same for Laich...
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2013
  12. brs03

    brs03 Coo coo ca cha!

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    There were a couple that were recruiting for various teams over the summer, but I can't recall specifically. I think http://www.shutdownline.com/ has looked at them before. http://www.broadstreethockey.com has as well, and they might have been the ones trying to put together a group to track every team. Not positive though.
     
  13. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    Technically, Brouwer was correct. Nobody else in Oates' system crashes the net from beneath the goal line. That player is mainly a passing threat in Oates' 1-3-1, as opposed to the 1-3-1 PP that the Flyers run where that player is creating havoc int he crease.

    Not that I dislike was Grabovski did, but evidence indicates that it's not what the coaching staff wants out of the player beneath the goal line.
     
  14. brs03

    brs03 Coo coo ca cha!

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    Oates today said he wanted him to do it as long as he timed it right (had to stay open to take the pass from Backstrom if he needs it, then move to the front when Green gets the puck). I don't know if that's an honest x's and o's insight into what they want this year, or if he was just covering for Grabo. Looked good though, helps make up for how high Brouwer plays in the slot.
     
  15. joescores

    joescores Registered User

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    Maybe and I do understand your point- but man you dont say this on the camera...It's like... Well its should have been me who should be screening or tipping the shots..Not sure he is that good tbh..Anyway- my point is he has a big mouth and sometimes he should just zip it..
     
  16. Ajax1995

    Ajax1995 Registered User

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    I don't know if he was correct if the only thing we are going off of is what Ribeiro did last season. As the down low guy once the puck moves up top getting to a spot on the side of the net where you can at least get your stick in front for a deflection if Green or Ovechkin shoots it or quickly back down below the goal line if it comes back to Backstrom should be the job IMO. We're not talking about a whole lot of distance between the side of the net and where he should be if Backstrom has it on the half wall.
     
  17. joescores

    joescores Registered User

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    Agreed. Apart of "WE" as I am not a Caps fan but do like your PP and watching the Caps when I can ;)
     
  18. Zoidberg Jesus

    Zoidberg Jesus Trotzkyist

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    A guy on Pension Plan Puppets did it last year. Here's the link. He concluded that it correlates so well, there's really no point in tracking it.
     
  19. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    Ribeiro spent as much time along the half-boards as he did beneath the goal line. As a consequence, we ended up seeing not only Ribeiro, but also Backstrom, Perreault, and Johansson take shifts from beneath the goal line on the PP with a decent amount of regularity. None of them pulled the play that Ribeiro did last night. I think it's reasonable to conclude it wasn't part of the system last year.

    Could it be a new wrinkle that Oates is adding it? Absolutely, and I hope it is. A net front disruption would be very useful for our powerplay, and Grabovski executed it perfectly twice last night. Hell, Brouwer even seemed to run a "pick" the second time it happened, by first moving out of Green's shooting lane and then locking out the LD from blocking the shot or stopping Grabovski's move to the net. But given his statements later, doubtful this was entirely designed. Even still, that should be added to the playbook. :laugh:
     
  20. malyk

    malyk Registered User

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    The Blame Game: Who created the goals for and who to blame for the goals against. Plus/Minus hurts guys not actually involved in the goals and don't count multiple plays that help/hurt (see carrick on the first goal)

    Chicago Goals -

    Bollig from Hjalmarsson and Kruger
    1. Carrick bumped off the puck
    2. Hillen weak on the puck
    3. Brower in the corner leaving the point open
    4. Carrick out muscled in front on the rebound

    Kane
    1. Fehr lets kane catch the puck and drift right by
    2. Green lets kane get a clean shot off

    Seabrook
    1. Carlson probably with a bit of a screen
    2. Fehr probably gets too low leaving seabrook open

    Saad
    1. Johanssen with the turnover in the high slot
    2. backstrom with weak pressure on handzus
    3. Erskine for lets saad slip by him and get a touch on the puck

    Oduya
    1. Holtby...gotta have that save.

    Hossa
    Nobody...good effort, but empty net.

    Washington Goals -

    Ovechkin from Grabovski and Backstrom
    1. Ovechkin with a nice read/react on the deflected pass
    2. Grabovski with the vision (although the pass was off, it ended up working)
    3. backstrom with the pass down low

    Grabovski
    1. Ward for the puck pressure
    2. Grabovski with nice look off and the shot

    Grabovski from green and ovechkin
    1. Nice faceoff win by backstron
    2. Fake slapper from Ovi
    3. Shot on goal from green
    4. Grabo i guess for getting hit with the puck

    Grabovski from Green and Backstrom
    1. Wheelhouse setup from backstrom
    2. Shot on net from green
    3. nice tip from grabo


    Totals:

    Pluses
    2 - Ovi
    4 - Grabo
    3 - backstrom
    1 - ward
    2 - Green

    Minuses
    2 - Carrick
    1 - Hillen
    1 - brower
    2 - fehr
    1 - green
    1 - carlson
    1 - backstrom
    1 - johansson
    1 - erskine

    Total
    +4 Grabovski
    +2 Ovechkin
    +2 Backstrom
    +1 Green
    +1 Ward
    -1 Hillen
    -1 Brower
    -1 Carlson
    -1 Johansson
    -1 Erskine
    -1 Holtby
    -2 Fehr
    -2 Carrick
     
  21. Ajax1995

    Ajax1995 Registered User

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    What is this 'play' you are talking about here? He stuck his stick in front of the net and deflected the puck. What is he supposed to do stand there quietly and signal goal if it goes in?

    Grabovski is more of a get towards the net guy than any of the others who played in either his or Backstrom's roles last year besides maybe Perreault who didn't get a whole lot of time there.

    Again, we are talking about maybe 8 feet from where he was standing when he deflected those pucks and where he stands when Backstrom has the puck on the half wall.
     
  22. BobRouse

    BobRouse Registered User

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    Good point. The blame game goes beyond just when goals are scored.

    On the Sharp breakaway...my boy Erskine fumbled the puck behind the net with no pressure on him..hawks got it and cycled for a bit...then we took it away and Erskine got it again...terrible pass to Backstrom that put him in a bad spot who in turn threw a terrible pass to Carlson to put him in a bad spot...Holtby bailed them out.

    But...Chicago can play the blame game too. They probably feel THEY made a ton of mistakes. What we consider "great plays by our team" to them are "stupid mistakes by the hawks"

    Carrick had the roughest outing of any player. Two goals were a direct result of poor plays by him and a third was b/c he took a penalty and was in the box. But he's just a kid and we need to put him right back out there. I want to see how he RESPONDS to a bad game. That is when you can tell something about the players mental fortitude.
     
  23. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    I still don't think Saad's goal is on Carrick at all. It was a good rush and Backstrom was available to cover for him defensively. Chicago made a smart play in jumping Johansson's pass to Ovechkin and Erskine let Saad walk right by him.
     
  24. Ajax1995

    Ajax1995 Registered User

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    Carrick and Erskine were both right next to Saad from the top of the circles to the net. Neither one did anything to tie his stick up. How is Carrick not at least partially responsible for not tying Saad's stick up unless you believe that was Erskine's and only Erskine's job and Carrick should have been doing something else completely unrelated to anyone else in that play?

    Maybe it was one of those 'I thought you had him' 'and I thought you had him' things but in the end neither had him and it is both of their fault.
     
  25. Ajax1995

    Ajax1995 Registered User

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    Yeah that is pretty amusing. Pretty much every goal the Caps give up is a result of a mistake or series of mistakes as far as many around here are concerned but most of the Caps' goals are just because of great plays by the Caps. Really...?

    The expectations we have for our team while simultaneously giving a pass to the opposition is interesting.
     

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