Rumor: Planning Ahead: 2019 Off-Season

[KingsHockey24]

The Kings have way too many holes to fill now. One more good forward isn't going to turn them into contenders before Kopitar rides off into the sunset. Besides whoever they draft this summer likely doesn't make the NHL roster for at least three or four seasons.

We'll be fine. Akil Thomas, Rasmus Kupari, JAD, Gabe Vilardi, and whoever we draft 5/22/32 are all gone be pretty good players.

 

[The Tikkanen]

While we should remain hopeful, we can not count on anything from Vilardi until he can actually get on the ice.

Have the Kings doctors even given Vilardi a diagnosis yet or are we still going with "bad back"? Somebody please tell these guys how to use an MRI machine.

 

[KingsFan7824]

Where did this Kopitar stuff bubble up from again? He's firmly entrenched for at least one more year.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Are you a fan of letting the food in the cupboard spoil, then throw it out?

You don't have a shot at anything like Kopitar or McKinnon unless you are drafting in the top 10, probably top 5. Blake is in a real dilemma, because the Kings missed the window on trading Kopitar, then Carter, and now possibly Doughty. Any poster that suggested trading any of these players was considered a heretic, but it is now being shown to be a necessary bold move, unless you're satisfied with the best the Kings being able to do is a black hole season.

For those acting like this is about cap space, it's not. It's about getting younger and better, faster.

The boldfaced isn't lost on me, I'm just pointing out the cap space isn't much of an asset. And I think everyone is on board with the second part, just disagreeing about how to get there--I personally don't feel they should be left to their own devices. No one in favor of trading Kopitar has done/said anything to show me that the nuclear option would be different than the Oilers. Hell even tanking hard didn't 'work', did it? We're not likely leaving this offseason with a franchise-changer even after the ugliest hockey we've ever seen from this franchise, trading Kopitar doesn't come with better lottery luck.

Show me a team that's purged their stars/vets for assets, and I'll show you a rudderless ship. All those assets are sure helping the Oilers, Sens, Sabres aren't they? Toronto's a bad example because they had to bring them in, but even they saw the value of Marleau, and had Hainsey playing way too many minutes. Isles went pretty far, guess who their C is? And they still have Brock Nelson there too. How about Boston, whose model you adore--weird how they hung on to a franchise D until he was 40 and a similar C to Kopitar until 35, huh? They missed the window on those guys too. I guess? And I don't think I need to say much about Carolina, all our hearts are bleeding for some dude there.

Have the Kings doctors even given Vilardi a diagnosis yet or are we still going with "bad back"? Somebody please tell these guys how to use an MRI machine.

Not gonna lie, I love your posts about the Kings medical staff

 

[johnjm22]

No, I don't think they are are sure a thing as you're pointing out, and leaving the team to the 20 year olds will cause more damage than good imo.




I'm not seeing 3 1sts and a 2nd. Nevertheless even if that's full and fair value, I'm not willing to leave the team to chance and prayers with no guidance unless, as someone else pointed out, that player is Kakko or something, otherwise see my comment about becoming the Oilers.




I see the other side of the argument, I just disagree with it. I've pretty clearly shown I'd consider it, i just see too many cons and too many wildcards. I don't see why moving the contract/cap space has any bearing on anything, if someone could explain to me why that's important other than "it's a plus" I'd maybe be on board. But it's a pretty empty positive. "Moving your other pick into the top 4" sounds amazing, except that our pick is literally 5. Getting a mid first? That's cool and there are potentially some great fallers there, but Kopitar for "cap space" (no big deal), one draft spot (also not really a huge deal), a mid first (nice), and two recent draft picks isn't as big a haul as it's being painted, unless we're extremely optimistic about those guys, and I'm frankly not sure why they're being painted as near-bluechipper sure things.

I'm not trying to be a debbie downer and I appreciate the thought put into it, just trying to be realistic. Let's say Turcotte and Meloche hit and that's it; is that really a worthwhile haul for Kopitar? I guess there will be different philosophies, I just would much rather have our picks learn from Kopitar than...who's left? Carter? Toffoli? Kovalchuk? Edit: I guess Brown, so that's kickass at least.

I just see a lot of excitement over mystery boxes with little thought to long-term development, that's all.

I guess in short, to be clear, I don't hate it, I think it's well-thought-out, I just disagree based on philosophy of team building. You guys know what the young teams that are breaking through have in common? They still count heavily on vets.

What are you going to use that cap space for? To sign a different aging forward in free agency? I think people are a bit too obsessed with cap space around here, the Kings have no big money talents coming up for new contracts any time soon and we definitely shouldn't be dipping into free agency. Over the past 3 seasons, Kopitar has the 27th most points and 2nd most TOI/GP among forwards and has won a Selke. I honestly doubt you would even be able to find someone in free agency that will bring anywhere close to the value that Kopitar does. You don't just cast aside possibly the best forward in franchise history just to save some ****ing money, especially one that is just a season removed from being a Hart finalist.

You guys don't see why having a 35 year old with a 10M cap hit could be a problem?

There's a reason why you keep your powder dry. You never know when an opportunity is going to arise. You don't know if certain franchise changing players become available that no one is expecting. Years from now you don't know if we have great young players and need cap space to retain them and a supporting cast.

I'm fine with keeping him, I see the value in it, but I guess it really just depends on what you think he's going to be from here on out. My fear is that ends up like Eric Staal in his later Carolina years; tired, over used, lots of his points coming off coincidental second assists. That's pretty much what he already is if they don't fix his deployment.

I'm sure Kings management is looking at Boston right now and hoping they can pull off something similar with Doughty/Carter/Kopitar/Brown/Quick being their versions of Bergeron/Chara/Krejci/Rask/Marchand. That's asking a lot since our vets on the whole didn't look anywhere near as good as their's this season. Then the question is where do we get our versions of Pastrnak/Krug/Debrusk/McAvaoy?

 

[johnjm22]

We'll be fine. Akil Thomas, Rasmus Kupari, JAD, Gabe Vilardi, and whoever we draft 5/22/32 are all gone be pretty good players.

When people make posts like this I can't tell if it's sarcastic or not.

 

[KINGS17]

The boldfaced isn't lost on me, I'm just pointing out the cap space isn't much of an asset. And I think everyone is on board with the second part, just disagreeing about how to get there--I personally don't feel they should be left to their own devices. No one in favor of trading Kopitar has done/said anything to show me that the nuclear option would be different than the Oilers. Hell even tanking hard didn't 'work', did it? We're not likely leaving this offseason with a franchise-changer even after the ugliest hockey we've ever seen from this franchise, trading Kopitar doesn't come with better lottery luck.

Show me a team that's purged their stars/vets for assets, and I'll show you a rudderless ship. All those assets are sure helping the Oilers, Sens, Sabres aren't they? Toronto's a bad example because they had to bring them in, but even they saw the value of Marleau, and had Hainsey playing way too many minutes. Isles went pretty far, guess who their C is? And they still have Brock Nelson there too. How about Boston, whose model you adore--weird how they hung on to a franchise D until he was 40 and a similar C to Kopitar until 35, huh? They missed the window on those guys too. I guess? And I don't think I need to say much about Carolina, all our hearts are bleeding for some dude there.

As I always say, there are no guarantees in life. The best Blake can do is put himself in a position to have an opportunity should it arise. While having the 1st pick overall sounds great, it may just not be the case in a salary-capped NHL. Take a look at Colorado and the flexibility they have going forward. I would rather have five or six players make $4M - $7M a season than two players making $22M.

I like what Boston did, they were willing to trade guys like Lucic to get younger and better, while the Kings hung onto Carter when it was obvious they weren't going to be a contender again during the time remaining on his contract. At the time of the Lucic trade Bergeron was 28 and Marchand was 25 years old. Turns out that was the time to make some moves.

Finally, Barzal and Nelson make a nice tandem for the Islanders. Nelson is 27 years old, not 32 years old. Let's see if old Anze can find the magic again in an even numbered year. I guess with your take on this it should work out well. The Kings may have a youngster ready to take over the 1C spot when Kopitar is 34 years old.

 

[KINGS17]

When people make posts like this I can't tell if it's sarcastic or not.

Definitely not sarcastic. A true believer!!

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

You guys don't see why having a 35 year old with a 10M cap hit could be a problem?

There's a reason why you keep your powder dry. You never know when an opportunity is going to arise. You don't know if certain franchise changing players become available that no one is expecting. Years from now you don't know if we have great young players and need cap space to retain them and a supporting cast.

I'm fine with keeping him, I see the value in it, but I guess it really just depends on what you think he's going to be from here on out. My fear is that ends up like Eric Staal in his later Carolina years; tired, over used, lots of his points coming off coincidental second assists. That's pretty much what he already is if they don't fix his deployment.

I'm sure Kings management is looking at Boston right now and hoping they can pull off something similar with Doughty/Carter/Kopitar/Brown/Quick being their versions of Bergeron/Chara/Krejci/Rask/Marchand. That's asking a lot since our vets on the whole didn't look anywhere near as good as their's this season. Then the question is where do we get our versions of Pastrnak/Krug/Debrusk/McAvaoy?

I don't, because in 4 years, we'll be free of a lot of the other handicapping cap hits, and with the cap going up and the number of other players getting those contracts, it won't look nearly as rough as the thought does now.

You're suggesting adding a franchise changing player via UFA? Regardless, in 4 years, most of the possible 'great young players' will be RFAs and cap space won't be an issue anyway. You can't have it both ways--either these guys aren't difference makers and cap isn't an issue, or they are difference makers and you'd have to admit we're drafting and developing well. A lot of the naysayers on this forum seem to think both things are true, we suck at drafting and none of our young guys matter, but that we'll somehow be out of cap space for...things, I guess? The argument isn't adding up.

I agree that it depends heavily on what Kopitar is from here on out. I think at worst he's an elite 2C, which is exactly why you keep him around for the term. Also agreed his deployment needs adjustment. I have faith TM has some thoughts.

The difference is people are taking the Kopitar and Doughty they saw last year and assuming the worst.

As I always say, there are no guarantees in life. The best Blake can do is put himself in a position to have an opportunity should it arise. While having the 1st pick overall sounds great, it may just not be the case in a salary-capped NHL. Take a look at Colorado and the flexibility they have going forward. I would rather have five or six players make $4M - $7M a season than two players making $22M.

I like what Boston did, they were willing to trade guys like Lucic to get younger and better, while the Kings hung onto Carter when it was obvious they weren't going to be a contender again during the time remaining on his contract. At the time of the Lucic trade Bergeron was 28 and Marchand was 25 years old. Turns out that was the time to make some moves.

Finally, Barzal and Nelson make a nice tandem for the Islanders. Nelson is 27 years old, not 32 years old. Let's see if old Anze can find the magic again in an even numbered year. I guess with your take on this it should work out well. The Kings may have a youngster ready to take over the 1C spot when Kopitar is 34 years old.

Buddy, if you wouldn't take a 32 year old Anze over a 27 year old Nelson...anyway I was thinking more about Anders Lee, can you imagine the haul they would have gotten from moving him? Yet they didn't trade their best value vet...

Anyway it sounds like you generally agree with the "keep the vets while you transition" philosophy. I know you point out you'd rather have several guys on mid-high deals than two on superstar deals but there's a big difference between veteran winning UFAs and young unproven RFAs. Don't you worry, they'll find themselves in cap purgatory before you can say "TORONTO" as well

 

[kilowatt]

I’m all for trading Kopitar if the return is right, but let’s not pretend that he isn’t a franchise center with the ability to post 80+ points a year. Maybe we ought to get some players that can take over his defensive responsibilities. I wonder what an 18-minute-per-game, mostly offensive-zone-start Kopitar looks like.

 

[johnjm22]

I don't, because in 4 years, we'll be free of a lot of the other handicapping cap hits, and with the cap going up and the number of other players getting those contracts, it won't look nearly as rough as the thought does now.

You're suggesting adding a franchise changing player via UFA? Regardless, in 4 years, most of the possible 'great young players' will be RFAs and cap space won't be an issue anyway. You can't have it both ways--either these guys aren't difference makers and cap isn't an issue, or they are difference makers and you'd have to admit we're drafting and developing well. A lot of the naysayers on this forum seem to think both things are true, we suck at drafting and none of our young guys matter, but that we'll somehow be out of cap space for...things, I guess? The argument isn't adding up.

I agree that it depends heavily on what Kopitar is from here on out. I think at worst he's an elite 2C, which is exactly why you keep him around for the term. Also agreed his deployment needs adjustment. I have faith TM has some thoughts.

The difference is people are taking the Kopitar and Doughty they saw last year and assuming the worst.

Cap space is an asset. 4 years is an eternity in pro sports. Great players can come in a variety of ways and ideally you have some dry powder to take advantage of opportunities. Dry powder isn't just cap space BTW, and you never know when a Seguin/Pronger /Tavares /Thornton is going to become available.

I don't really understand your point about having it both ways. I've never said the Kings drafting sucks.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Cap space is an asset. 4 years is an eternity in pro sports. Great players can come in a variety of ways and ideally you have some dry powder to take advantage of opportunities. Dry powder isn't just cap space BTW, and you never know when a Seguin/Pronger /Tavares /Thornton is going to become available.

I don't really understand your point about having it both ways. I've never said the Kings drafting sucks.

No, you're totally right about the years, but I think you're missing that things will be coming off the books between now and then as well. Kopitar, Doughty, Quick are the only ones under contract in 2022-2023. Forbort, Ladue, Toffoli, Lewis, Clifford, Campbell are UFA next year, Kovalchuk, Martinez, Phaneuf after that. There's 15 million 1 year, 15 million 2nd year. Literally everyone else is an RFA and I don't see many massive raises going on. Obviously you have to fill out the roster but we don't have a cap 'issue' in any manner, keeping our powder dry will be a cakewalk frankly. What else is there that I'm missing besides cap space, do you mean assets?

And that was more of a general observation, not at you, sorry. In one breath people complain that we can't land impact players, in another they're complaining about cap space. It's a non sequitur. Who do you pay so much? Shrug. We may have a harder time meeting the floor than staying away from the ceiling.

 

[lumbergh]

Has anyone asked Kopitar if he'd like to be traded? Okay then.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Looks like we'll be having these discussions concerning Kopitar until 2024. Only five more years to go.

 

[KINGS17]

I don't, because in 4 years, we'll be free of a lot of the other handicapping cap hits, and with the cap going up and the number of other players getting those contracts, it won't look nearly as rough as the thought does now.

You're suggesting adding a franchise changing player via UFA? Regardless, in 4 years, most of the possible 'great young players' will be RFAs and cap space won't be an issue anyway. You can't have it both ways--either these guys aren't difference makers and cap isn't an issue, or they are difference makers and you'd have to admit we're drafting and developing well. A lot of the naysayers on this forum seem to think both things are true, we suck at drafting and none of our young guys matter, but that we'll somehow be out of cap space for...things, I guess? The argument isn't adding up.

I agree that it depends heavily on what Kopitar is from here on out. I think at worst he's an elite 2C, which is exactly why you keep him around for the term. Also agreed his deployment needs adjustment. I have faith TM has some thoughts.

The difference is people are taking the Kopitar and Doughty they saw last year and assuming the worst.






Buddy, if you wouldn't take a 32 year old Anze over a 27 year old Nelson...anyway I was thinking more about Anders Lee, can you imagine the haul they would have gotten from moving him? Yet they didn't trade their best value vet...

Anyway it sounds like you generally agree with the "keep the vets while you transition" philosophy. I know you point out you'd rather have several guys on mid-high deals than two on superstar deals but there's a big difference between veteran winning UFAs and young unproven RFAs. Don't you worry, they'll find themselves in cap purgatory before you can say "TORONTO" as well

It doesn't matter much as Kopitar and Carter are no longer assets many teams would want. The Kings missed their window on trading Kopitar and Carter, and it's looking like a mistake to have kept them both.

 

[cyclones22]

Looks like we'll be having these discussions concerning Kopitar until 2024. Only five more years to go.

These discussions have been happening here since Kopi signed his LAST contract. Remember the time folks here argued that Mikko Koivu was a better value than Kopi? Good grief.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

It doesn't matter much as Kopitar and Carter are no longer assets many teams would want. The Kings missed their window on trading Kopitar and Carter, and it's looking like a mistake to have kept them both.

You forgot "in my opinon." Not everyone is as willing to turf both guys as some are, and at least to me, they're worth more to the Kings than the assets they'd receive in a trade, i.e. the 'window' to trade is irrelevant since Kopitar shouldn't ever be traded AND there's an NTC at play. Kopitar to a much different degree than Carter, of course. You've made it pretty evident that Kopitar's mere existence in LA after 2014 is pointless for you but you have to at least be able to concede there are other opinions.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

These discussions have been happening here since Kopi signed his LAST contract. Remember the time folks here argued that Mikko Koivu was a better value than Kopi? Good grief.

The Paul Stastny vs. Anze Kopitar debates were also pretty funny.

 

[crassbonanza]

You guys don't see why having a 35 year old with a 10M cap hit could be a problem?

There's a reason why you keep your powder dry. You never know when an opportunity is going to arise. You don't know if certain franchise changing players become available that no one is expecting. Years from now you don't know if we have great young players and need cap space to retain them and a supporting cast.

I'm fine with keeping him, I see the value in it, but I guess it really just depends on what you think he's going to be from here on out. My fear is that ends up like Eric Staal in his later Carolina years; tired, over used, lots of his points coming off coincidental second assists. That's pretty much what he already is if they don't fix his deployment.

No, I don't see an issue with Kopitar being on the Kings for the next 5 seasons. The Kings cap hit over those 5 seasons are as follows: 71, 55, 38, 27, 21. Contracts will be falling off the board as it progresses and we currently do not have any big name prospects that will be looking for big raises. They are actually setup nicely cap space wise for the foreseeable future.

As for your second part about Kopitar basically just collecting poitns off of coincidental second assists, I think you are way off the board with your assessment. He only hadd 11 secondary assists last season and I doubt all of those were just coincidental.

 

[KINGS17]

You forgot "in my opinon." Not everyone is as willing to turf both guys as some are, and at least to me, they're worth more to the Kings than the assets they'd receive in a trade, i.e. the 'window' to trade is irrelevant since Kopitar shouldn't ever be traded AND there's an NTC at play. Kopitar to a much different degree than Carter, of course. You've made it pretty evident that Kopitar's mere existence in LA after 2014 is pointless for you but you have to at least be able to concede there are other opinions.

I am not turfing Kopitar. I just don't think the Kings are going to win jack over the remaining years of his contract, and I don't think at a cap hit of $10M a season any other team is going to want him, or have room for him. Kopitar could have, and should have been traded prior to signing him to the current boat anchor contract. It would have been best for the Kings, and from the standpoint of him winning again, it would have been best for Kopitar.

Of course it's my opinion, I wrote it.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

The cap ceiling keeps going up, and Kopitar and Doughty combine for 25% of the Kings' cap next season, based on a projected $83M cap. Chicago also has 25% tied towards Kane and Toews.

Nashville is spending 20% of its cap on Ryan Johansen and P.K. Subban. The Caps have 21% of their cap consumed by Ovechkin and Carlson. Sharks are at 19% with Couture and Burns.

It seems to be the norm for the top two players on most teams to consume 20% or more of a team's cap space. Go down the list, Edmonton, Tampa Bay, Toronto, etc. they're all spending top dollars on their top guys, and they're be getting paid like Kopitar and Doughty when they're at their same age.

And with virtually no prospects on the horizon to replace those names, expect Kopitar and Doughty to remain with the team for the foreseeable future.

 

[crassbonanza]

You don't have a shot at anything like Kopitar or McKinnon unless you are drafting in the top 10, probably top 5.

I get your point here, but it's kind of funny that one of the two examples that you used was drafted outside of the top 10.

 

[Fat Elvis]

Kopitar and DD8 have been ridden hard the last few seasons. It's inevitable that they'll begin breaking down sooner than later. Poor time management is to blame for sure. Many of us have been pointing that out in recent years. It is going to become some serious discussion about both 11 and 8, and what is best going forward. I've said both should be dealt, but I'm not certain the timing is right now. The team is going to need some stable players the next couple years as the bad fat gets trimmed. This will give us great ammo for interesting debate for the next couple seasons. Curious to watch it play out.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I get your point here, but it's kind of funny that one of the two examples that you used was drafted outside of the top 10.

Vilardi fell to 11--guess we see why. But Barzal, McAvoy, Chabot all outside the top 10 as well in recent years. Pastrnak was 25, and I remember hoping he'd fall to where we got Kempe at 29.

I think @KINGS17 is totally right that the real franchise changing offensive superstars are almost necessarily top 5 picks though, it's a tough spot.

 

[crassbonanza]

Vilardi fell to 11--guess we see why. But Barzal, McAvoy, Chabot all outside the top 10 as well in recent years. Pastrnak was 25, and I remember hoping he'd fall to where we got Kempe at 29.

I think @KINGS17 is totally right that the real franchise changing offensive superstars are almost necessarily top 5 picks though, it's a tough spot.

I completely agree. I honestly think that late 1sts are a bit overrated because what he says is correct. I just thought it was funny that he used two examples of players you can't find outside of the top 10 and one of them was actually drafted outside of the top 10.